Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 2

[JP]

Seems like there's new "but.." for every success the film has.

BUT... that's overseas!
BUT... inflation!
BUT... 3D ticket prices!

I'm sure if the film ended up finishing with $260m instead of $220, it would be "BUT... that doesn't beat ADJUSTED numbers for TLS!"

 

[def28]

Pretty much every box office thread is like that, because all those things factor in to the success. Especially when comparing franchises that are over a decade old. Nothing new.

 

[psylockolussus]

If $609 million and counting isn't a success to Fox, then I don't know what it is.

 

[JP]

Pretty much every box office thread is like that, because all those things factor in to the success. Especially when comparing franchises that are over a decade old. Nothing new.

I just don't see the point in trying every possible way to argue a successful film isn't actually successful.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Seems like there's new "but.." for every success the film has.

BUT... that's overseas!
BUT... inflation!
BUT... 3D ticket prices!

I'm sure if the film ended up finishing with $260m instead of $220, it would be "BUT... that doesn't beat ADJUSTED numbers for TLS!"

But why do you avoid that? What is wrong with discussing that? You know why there was no "buts" for Iron Man 3 or Frozen? Because there was none.

It amazes me that those that don't follow box office numbers in general can qualify films as huge money makers and great successes off hand and you don't seem to mind, but how dare anyone actually put the numbers in perspective.

I just don't see the point in trying every possible way to argue a successful film isn't actually successful.

It is because you think people are trying to say it is unsuccessful. That isn't what people are saying. We are talking about how successful it actually it is.

 

[Samarus]

This movie is on track to do around 700ww. This is nearly twice the number its predecessor did. If this isn't at least a good number I am Jon Snow.

 

[X-Maniac]

It is 2014. The 90s is two decades ago.

Depends what year in the 1990s. 1994 to 2014 is two decades. Anything later than 1994 is more than a decade and in some cases almost two decades.

However, I'm going with Box Office Mojo. I trust them more than you. They say it's the poorest May since 2010, which is four years not decades.

And I very much understand the crisis. That doesn't change that when people are truly in love with a film, they go out of their way to see it, recession or not. The highest grossing film of all time came out during the Great Depression. Avatar came out during the recession.

Maybe, but some films become pop culture phenomenons (like Avatar). Not every film is a phenomenon.

The World Cup hasn't started yet.

I meant the football season, FA Cup, and all that.. leading towards the World Cup. I'm not a football fanatic so none of all that means much to me, it's just one big bore...

And the "TWS had a month to itself" argument would hold more weight if all these films hadn't dropped like stones. "The Fault In Our Stars" has a completely different audience, and the rest haven't made the kind of money to have a real impact on DoFP. I don't think it is coincidence that DoFP is following a similar path as past X-Men films, including the new trend of taking hold in the expanding OS markets. At so point it is a pattern.

They dropped pretty much as expected, in my view. The competition the next weekend was a factor. CA:TWS didn't have that competition. Also, CA:TWS was first out of the gate this year so it got there before we were bombarded with big new films every weekend.

It is not a good number if you spent $200m+ on production cost alone.

I'd still argue that DoFP is doing very well with its current takings. I expected a lower RT rating and (though I didn't state it on here) a box office not that much more than X3.

You need to compare with other films released the same month, and the other X-Men movies, not with Avatar or Iron Man 3.

 

[Blackout]

Anyways,

X-Men: Days Of Future Past earned another $42.1m from 16,080 screens in 74 markets this weekend. That brings the international cume to $422.1M and the global box office to $611M after less than 3 weeks of release. The added coin helped push Fox International over the $1.5B global box office mark. In China, DOFP added $7.48M from 3,460 screens to cross the $100M mark with $104.4M. It is now the 3rd highest grossing Fox title of all-time in the market, behind, natch, Avatar and Titanic. In Korea, the gang of mutants grossed $4.02M from 535 locations, reaching the same milestone for Fox as its 3rd biggest movie ever there. The penultimate market to bow, Spain, was a No. 1 with $2.98M on 688 screens. In Singapore ($609K from 58) and Malaysia ($461K from 145), the film becomes the No. 2 all-time Fox title, behind Avatar.

Other strong holds included Brazil ($3.26M from 765), the UK ($3.2M from 1,047, $38.9M cume), France ($2.56M from 740), Australia ($1.94M from 523), Mexico ($1.63M from 1,225), Japan ($1.3M from 653), Germany ($1.2M from 780) and Russia ($1.05M from 1,144).

 

[Weather Witch]

DOFP is doing great, I really don't see any reason for all the complaining and comparing. What did you guys want and expect? 300 domestically and 1 billion WW? Cuz that is just unrealistic. It doesn't get much better than this and I am sure that 700 WW will make FOX very happy.

This movie is on track to do around 700ww. This is nearly twice the number its predecessor did. If this isn't at least a good number I am Jon Snow.

Hey Jon.

Anyways,

X-Men: Days Of Future Past earned another $42.1m from 16,080 screens in 74 markets this weekend. That brings the international cume to $422.1M and the global box office to $611M after less than 3 weeks of release. The added coin helped push Fox International over the $1.5B global box office mark. In China, DOFP added $7.48M from 3,460 screens to cross the $100M mark with $104.4M. It is now the 3rd highest grossing Fox title of all-time in the market, behind, natch, Avatar and Titanic. In Korea, the gang of mutants grossed $4.02M from 535 locations, reaching the same milestone for Fox as its 3rd biggest movie ever there. The penultimate market to bow, Spain, was a No. 1 with $2.98M on 688 screens. In Singapore ($609K from 58) and Malaysia ($461K from 145), the film becomes the No. 2 all-time Fox title, behind Avatar.

Other strong holds included Brazil ($3.26M from 765), the UK ($3.2M from 1,047, $38.9M cume), France ($2.56M from 740), Australia ($1.94M from 523), Mexico ($1.63M from 1,225), Japan ($1.3M from 653), Germany ($1.2M from 780) and Russia ($1.05M from 1,144).

Not to mention that it is the biggest X-Men film in many countries.

 

[Blackout]

I don't agree with the "competition didn't hurt the May films at all" sentiment. Although each film is not really taking up the whole market and audience, most people will only see 1 movie in a few weeks/months, so having many decent sized movies opening within weeks of each other will surely hurt each other. The fact is, X-Men is no longer a strong enough brand to help people make that "which movie should I see?" decision, which brings us back to the X3 and Origin franchise damage. Yes, Iron Man 3 had competition too, but Marvel Studios is strong brand, one of the strongest now, and that film was coming off Avengers, in addition to being the most popular out of the Avengers characters. Captain America did have no competition during its run, but that's not to say it's not doing spectacularly. It is. But what helped it slightly was the fact that, that was the only "big" movie at that period of a few weeks. That, added with spectacular WOM, leads to better numbers. X-Men is the third superhero movie in like 2 months +, only three weeks after TASM2. This is not to say there is a "superhero movie fatigue", but it certainly contributes, as I don't think people who are not fans are gonna go see all three of the superhero movies. X-Men is doing slightly below expectations domestically, yes. But there are reasons behind it that I don't think people should dismiss because the competition is "not doing enough numbers to be considered competition".

TLDR: X-Men is no longer a strong enough brand name that will draw the GA from seeing other films, but this film will help with that slightly, and thus the next film will benefit from it.

And remember, the lack of an IMAX release probably also shaved a few millions off its gross. Not that the IMAX numbers are a huge number, though opening in so many territories, it adds up to quite a bit.

 

[Maze]

We could argue also that 3D is more expensive, not everybody can afford it. Not everybody can afford cinema period nowdays: we live in a recession era, and there are more movies nowdays out there. (and a lot more others entertainement : From video games to tv )So yes Xmen Days of future past is definitively a success. (and that is deserved imo )

 

[def28]

3D is very important for the overseas box office. Been a few times where studios actually postpone their flicks just to be converted. And it worked for them in the end.

I just don't see the point in trying every possible way to argue a successful film isn't actually successful.

I don't think people are really saying that though. It's more discussing where this # falls in the franchises past and the future. 3D, overseas and inflation all come into play when discussing those things.

 

[X-Maniac]

Godzilla opened a week before and is on $393m worldwide, Maleficent a week after and is on $335m worldwide. DoFP opened in the middle and is on $609m. That seems like success.

 

[Mr.M]

Globally big success. Domestically, big thud. So it's a meh result if I'm a Fox board of exec or major stake holder.

 

[Blackout]

Globally big success. Domestically, big thud. So it's a meh result if I'm a Fox board of exec or major stake holder.

Wow. It's as if DOFP did Edge of Tomorrow numbers all of a sudden. Domestic numbers are slightly disappointing, yes. A big thud? Nope.

And I doubt Fox expected anything close to a billion so...

People act like the billion dollar mark is so easy to get to like every film out is supposed to do it when it's not.

 

[Loganbabe]

A thud?

Really, in the end people will see what they want to see. All I see is a huge success, this for a film that has to battle Angelina Jolie, Tom Cruise and a tearjerker teen story, and I'm happy that I can still contribute to its already wonderful box office. To each his/her own.

 

[JEM]

But why do you avoid that? What is wrong with discussing that? You know why there was no "buts" for Iron Man 3 or Frozen? Because there was none.

It amazes me that those that don't follow box office numbers in general can qualify films as huge money makers and great successes off hand and you don't seem to mind, but how dare anyone actually put the numbers in perspective.


It is because you think people are trying to say it is unsuccessful. That isn't what people are saying. We are talking about how successful it actually it is.

I don't think people avoid that, the real point is some people can't accept that DOFP is a GREAT SUCCES t:. Frozen and Iron man 3 aren't a good exemple at all because everybody said they were great box office success (For Iron man 3, the debate was more on the twist that the BO ) .

Globally big success. Domestically, big thud. So it's a meh result if I'm a Fox board of exec or major stake holder.

This sentence proves my points t:

How result can be meh when this movie could win 500 million in OS ?
As I said earlier, the international market is very important for Fox because they are their own distrbutor in OS .

Personally, I find it quite annoying. The film has exploded in most market in the world (France, UK, Brasil, Spain, China, Australia ect.....) .

But, yes, it is meh .

 

[mmaeric]

Yeh, I'm getting annoyed having to explain over and over again that a movie that is gonna make nearly 3.5 times it's budget is a success.

Forbes thinks the film breaks even at 550million and it's gonna make 700 million. No matter how you want to spin it that's millions in profits without even including
Product placement
DVD/Bluray/digital sells
Selling TV rights
Increased sells for previous films

This movie is gonna profit hundreds of millions, has beaten the former worldwide record for an xmen film by over 200 million and while movies like x3, first class and origins barely doubled their budget in WW gross this has already tripled it in less than 3 weeks

If you think it's a failure your either a hater or (random insult full name)

 

[8ulk]

Domestically studios make up to 60% for big blockbusters like Avengers etc(but generally 50-55%).Overseas the numbers reach 40-45% with the exception of China where the make about 30% but China gets canceled out by DVD/BluRay sales. so.

50% is a reasonable profit to assume(and if its not it never gets under 45% just forget it). and if the movie has merchandise that adds up.

a 200mil budget needs 400-410mil worldwide to break even period.

X-DOFP is both a Financial and critical success period.(it could have done better yes but thats irrelevant)

Its funny how people still are sceptical about the LOCK for 700mil WW.
Trust me its a lock. (im declaring myself the 1st person to announce it with confidence)

700mil WW is a FOREGONE conclusion at this point due to the fact the movie has a LOCK for 210-215mil Domestically
and a LOCK for 490 Overseas.(unless again it enters a hell of drops which isnt happenning so far and we have ro reason to assume it will in its 4th-5th week.where is the evidence?)

My 2nd prediction (1st was 230 DOM , 515 OS ,745 WW)

220mil DOM
515mil OS
735mil WW

P.S. Actual numbers for OS Opening

XDOFP = 176 mil (close estimate cause Venezuela & Spain markets are not anounced in BOM)
TASM2 = 173 mil (All markets included)
CAP2.TWS = 140mil (Close estimate with all markets included)

X-DOFP will outgross CAP2.TWS Worldwide total of 710mil and will outgross TASM2 OS gross of 505-510mil when SPIDEY finishes its run OS.

For me thats a success. i dont understand why the slightly dissapointing DOM gross makes this movie non-successful.

 

[Rock Sexton]

We could argue also that 3D is more expensive, not everybody can afford it. Not everybody can afford cinema period nowdays: we live in a recession era, and there are more movies nowdays out there. (and a lot more others entertainement : From video games to tv )So yes Xmen Days of future past is definitively a success. (and that is deserved imo )

I think that explanation of 3D is rather vague. We wouldn't be getting some of the box office totals we've seen if that were the case.

I don't think people are really saying that though. It's more discussing where this # falls in the franchises past and the future. 3D, overseas and inflation all come into play when discussing those things.

This.

 

[Blackout]

Weekend actuals: $15,154,814 (-53%)

Up $0.5M from estimates.

Domestic total: $189,556,080

 

[The Endless]

We could argue also that 3D is more expensive, not everybody can afford it. Not everybody can afford cinema period nowdays: we live in a recession era, and there are more movies nowdays out there. (and a lot more others entertainement : From video games to tv )So yes Xmen Days of future past is definitively a success. (and that is deserved imo )

Recession? The recession was much, much worse 5 years ago. We're not actually in a recession anymore.

 

[Tehmeh]

Weekend actuals: $15,154,814 (-53%)

Up $0.5M from estimates.

Domestic total: $189,556,080

Weeee.

 

[X-Maniac]

Recession? The recession was much, much worse 5 years ago. We're not actually in a recession anymore.

No, but we're not really in a boom period either. There's still a lot of caution out there, and lots of people who lost their jobs/homes in the recession are not in the same position they were before it happened.

 

[mmaeric]

Recession? The recession was much, much worse 5 years ago. We're not actually in a recession anymore.

Um.... No. We are still in a recession. The work participation rate has declined every single month for the last 5 years, 50% more people are in food stamps, average household makes $5000 less than 5 years ago and inflation is up by around 15% I believe.

America is in a major recession much worse than 5 years ago. He'll, Detroit just weren't bankrupt and the national debt is up 7 trillion since them and we've lost our national credit rating multiple times.

On top of all that, many jobs have cut hours from 40 to 29 leaving those with jobs less hours

Where are you getting your information?