Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 2

[def28]

Explains why they want a sequel so bad

Of course, 4 was terrible and still made them a billion. It's a sure thing to an extent. If they don't step it up with 5 though, they will continue to lose money. Which is not what Disney wants. Hopefully they take their time with a script. That domestic number does matter. I'm sure they would love to have it back at 310m.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I am starting to question If pirates 5 will happen.It's no longer on schedule and Bruckheimer is no longer at disney. Disney doesn't need that franchise with Avengers and Star wars.
I too am skeptical of sequel to torn legacy going beyond talk.

 

[Malik]

That's why if Fox is smart, they will try to work something out with Disney so they can start to produce merchandises for X-Men movies. But Fox seems to be okay with the status quo, or maybe they just don't want to give up anything in a negotiation with Disney.

Well diamond select did say mystique was the only figure made for dofp because fox didn't give them more material to work with.

 

[def28]

I am starting to question If pirates 5 will happen.It's no longer on schedule and Bruckheimer is no longer at disney. Disney doesn't need that franchise with Avengers and Star wars.
I too am skeptical of sequel to torn legacy going beyond talk.

Yeah, your right. There's been no info and they have plenty going on.

I'll take that Tron sequel just for a new Daft Punk score and some Quorra screen time. Wish that one would get green lit.

 

[Rock Sexton]

I too am skeptical of sequel to torn legacy going beyond talk.

Damnit, don't make me depressed. I want my Tron sequel!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

No doubt they were disappointed with the domestic numbers for pirates 4 BUT the movie was a HUGE success and I guarantee you they were ecstatic with the money

Explains why they want a sequel so bad

They don't want a sequel that badly. That is the point. That is why they keep pushing it back and slashing the budget. It is why no one is sure if it is going to happen. It is why you heard those random rumors about Keira's Knightley returning to the series. Because On Stranger Tides was not nearly as profitable as the other two sequels.

Exactly, they gotta build. I never saw a scenario where 300m was gonna happen with this franchises recent track record. Apocalypse numbers are really going to be the one to show if Singer's take on the franchise can have a major box office increase at this point. One of these two X flicks will be their peak for awhile, at least until a solid reboot sequel.

Apocalypse will indeed be telling. If it is still stagnate, that is problem.

This is a great success. No other way to spin it. Could it have done better domestically due to its 200mil budget? Sure. But lets not forget the domestic performance of the last 3 X-Men movies, and the critical panning of X3 and Origins that destroyed the audience's goodwill towards the X-Men movies that was never that big anyway.

Its gonna do close or maybe a little more than 700mil worldwide, when the franchise best was 459mil worldwide. Its also gonna do more than the 1st 2 Iron Man movies, the 2 Thor flicks, and MOS. And it has 92% rotten tomatoes rating. This is a commercial and critical success, and has brought the momentum back to the franchise.

With the next movie, we have young Cyclops Storm and Jean, Tatum as Gambit, and freaking Apocalypse. If the movie is good, then I see it beating the commercial success of DOFP.

See this kills me. You don't spend that kind of money, and then go like, "well the last few didn't do that well, so this numbers is good in comparison". They didn't spend over $200m to just do better then the last few.

 

[Blackout]

6oo million is pretty good, it will make it's budget back. And 7oo million is now possible. Seriously dofp was never going to make avengers money so I don't get this doom and gloom.

I feel like every time we have a bit of good news to be happy about (OS numbers) and some of us feel satisfied about the not great but okay domestic numbers, people come and tell us we're wrong and that we should be disappointed. Such a mood dampener.

I get it, the domestic numbers are nothing amazing and should have done better than the worst film in the franchise.

But I'm satisfied with it given circumstances. The main point is it is a great film and the audience is slowly returning and it's an uptick from FC.

 

[JP]

I feel like every time we have a bit of good news to be happy about (OS numbers) and some of us feel satisfied about the not great but okay domestic numbers, people come and tell us we're wrong and that we should be disappointed. Such a mood dampener.

I get it, the domestic numbers are nothing amazing and should have done better than the worst film in the franchise.

But I'm satisfied with it given circumstances. The main point is it is a great film and the audience is slowly returning and it's an uptick from FC.

Tell me about it.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

See this kills me. You don't spend that kind of money, and then go like, "well the last few didn't do that well, so this numbers is good in comparison". They didn't spend over $200m to just do better then the last few.

They spent even more money in The Last Stand and barely duplicated the budget at the box office. That didn't stop them from making X-Men movies. DOFP is doing great and Im pretty sure Fox is happy with the results, this was a risky project and Im pretty sure they were NOT expecting a billion.

 

[Spider-Ock]

You gotta understand that X3 (a movie I really like) represented a low point in the franchise. This was followed by the even worse X-Men Origins: Wolverine. After that, Fox had to fight an uphill battle to regain the audience's trust. They achieved this through two quality flicks: X-Men First Class and the Wolverine.

Now, I think Fox knew that, given the strength of the script and the general excitement generated by pairing the original cast with their reboot counterparts, DOFP had the potential to be a success. Nonetheless, they did not let their expectations get the better of them. They counteracted the marketing budget by teaming up with various products, thereby achieving a profit margin before the movie even hit theatres. Couple that with the sale of satellite rights and home media sales and Fox would have broken even if DOFP made 450 mill or so.

However, DOFP now sits at 609 mill. Even with a 50% decrease in its overseas haul every week, it is still looking at (420+30+15+7.5+3.75+1.875+0.9)=at least 480 mill overseas. Domestically, it is the highest grossing X-Men movie in the last 8 years. It can earn over 203 mill domestically for an overall gross close to or even breaking past 700 mill.

With a quality flick like this in their hands, Fox has a chance to increase its domestic and international sales with the next one. Think of it like a new beginning folks. If we get another X-Men movie like this, it will be a lock for 800-900 mill.

 

[antonydelfini]

They don't want a sequel that badly. That is the point. That is why they keep pushing it back and slashing the budget. It is why no one is sure if it is going to happen. It is why you heard those random rumors about Keira's Knightley returning to the series. Because On Stranger Tides was not nearly as profitable as the other two sequels.


Apocalypse will indeed be telling. If it is still stagnate, that is problem.


See this kills me. You don't spend that kind of money, and then go like, "well the last few didn't do that well, so this numbers is good in comparison". They didn't spend over $200m to just do better then the last few.

What kills me is basing the success of this movie just on its domestic BO compared to its budget and not taking into account the following details :

1. This is the 7th movie of the franchise, with the 3rd and 4th movie killing the audience goodwill.

2. 3 movies before this: Origins 191mil, First Class 144mil, The Wolverine 134mil. DOFP does 200 mil and that's not good because the budget was 200mil? It should do 300mil even if the last 3 movies, hell all 6 movies do not indicate DOFP reaching 300mil?

3. It's making close to or a little over 700mil worldwide, when the previous best was 459mil.

I dont see a reason to be sad about this. As a Captain America fan, I was so happy that it went from 176mil to 255mil, and it was loved critically. If Winter Soldier's budget was 250mil, it is still a great success since there was a big jump from the previous movie, and you take into account the reviews and the international BO, I dont see how you cannot consider that as success.

As a Spidey fan I was sad, since the movie itself didnt work, the budget was high, and even if they are going to make a profit due to international BO and merchandise, TASM1 did better numbers than TASM2.

 

[Rock Sexton]

As a Captain America fan, I was so happy that it went from 176mil to 255mil, and it was loved critically. If Winter Soldier's budget was 250mil, it is still a great success since there was a big jump from the previous movie, and you take into account the reviews and the international BO, I dont see how you cannot consider that as success.

If Cap put out a $250mil movie and only took in $250mil or less at the domestic BO I wouldn't be singing it's praises. I'd be slightly critical because when you put that much of a budget towards a movie, the expectations are quite a bit higher.

 

[Blackout]

Has a chance to outgross IM3 in China.

This is X-Men's first two weeks.
______________________________Weekly______Total___
14-05-26 至 14-06-01 (Week 2) ￥270,320,000 ￥510,284,000
14-05-19 至 14-05-25 (Week 1) ￥244,550,000 ￥244,550,000

The week should be Monday to Sunday on this chart on entgroup.cn, so the third week should be around 150m+, since it is now at around 662m+ after Sunday. By comparison, TWS did 110m+ its third week and IM3 did 83m+ third week and was at 688m+. I think DOFP has a chance of outgrossing IM3's 753m, depending on how DOFP does against Godzilla opening this weekend. This is all speaking in Chinese Yuan btw.

 

[psylockolussus]

Days of Future Past has surpassed First Class both critically & financially. I can't wait for X-Men: Apocalypse now. It's a great time to be an X-Men fan.

Agreed!

Ray Subers' (boxofficemojo.com) long term predictions for WW numbers:

@damanedmonds Godzilla: $500m. Spider-Man: $705m. X-Men: $720m.

Please make this happen! t:

 

[psylockolussus]

I feel like every time we have a bit of good news to be happy about (OS numbers) and some of us feel satisfied about the not great but okay domestic numbers, people come and tell us we're wrong and that we should be disappointed. Such a mood dampener.

I get it, the domestic numbers are nothing amazing and should have done better than the worst film in the franchise.

But I'm satisfied with it given circumstances. The main point is it is a great film and the audience is slowly returning and it's an uptick from FC.

Agreed and its coming from the same people who were negative since the opening weekend numbers came out.

Oh boy. Even if this film grosses 1 billion, not that I'm saying it will, those same people would still say something negative.

 

[antonydelfini]

If Cap put out a $250mil movie and only took in $250mil or less at the domestic BO I wouldn't be singing it's praises. I'd be slightly critical because when you put that much of a budget towards a movie, the expectations are quite a bit higher.

Yeah slightly critical, but still impressive and successful nonetheless considering the rave reviews and strong international numbers.

 

[antonydelfini]

Agreed and its coming from the same people who were negative since the opening weekend numbers came out.

Oh boy. Even if this film grosses 1 billion, not that I'm saying it will, those same people would still say something negative.

The most Xavier thing to do is to not judge those 2-3 people right away. I dont think they are intentionally trying to spoil the X-Men fans' party. I think They're just sharing their opinion on these matters.

 

[psylockolussus]

It can be a little tiring when every response they've been posting are negative. The fact its been going on for pages and they keep arguing with people that its not enough is really not so cool. Things can only get worse from here especially if DOFP doesn't cross the 700 million mark and if DOFP doesn't outgross a X-Men film which was released like 11 years ago, which I hope doesn't happen.

What kills me is basing the success of this movie just on its domestic BO compared to its budget and not taking into account the following details :

1. This is the 7th movie of the franchise, with the 3rd and 4th movie killing the audience goodwill.

2. 3 movies before this: Origins 191mil, First Class 144mil, The Wolverine 134mil. DOFP does 200 mil and that's not good because the budget was 200mil? It should do 300mil even if the last 3 movies, hell all 6 movies do not indicate DOFP reaching 300mil?

3. It's making close to or a little over 700mil worldwide, when the previous best was 459mil.

Agreed. I don't see how people are ignoring this or how people can see these milestones as a negative thing.

 

[BMM]

I also don't understand why people would try to dismiss TWS's box office numbers by claiming that it has a whole month to itself.

I don't think people are dismissing The Winter Soldier's box office, as though it were a crap movie that only made the money it did because it had a month to itself.

The reason blockbusters don't open in April is because the school isn't out yet, so the movies in April can only make their money during weekends, when the kids are free and the parents can take them to see a movie.

Kids are in school, not locked in a dungeon, and blockbusters like these don't solely rely on audience members who need to be accompanied by a parent. Besides, if anything, I think it's becoming increasingly clear that movies like these, with built-in audiences, are capable of making good money regardless of when kids are in school.

TWS made the money that it did because it is a very good movie, and the reviews and WOM were fantastic. I don't think that movie studios will all of a sudden releasing big-budget movies in the month of April just because TWS did better than predicted.

The Winter Soldier made the money it did because it's a good movie and because it had a good release date. And movie studios will continue to release big budget movies in non-summer months, like April, as long as summers continue to remain as crowded as they are. Captain America 3 and Batman vs. Superman, anyone?

 

[Rock Sexton]

Some fun discussion on Box Office math over at boxoffice.com .....

studios dont get 50 percent, it is distributors who do. studios gets back 50 percent minus distributors expenses (p&a + 8%-12% distributor fee) whcih might be far less than 50 percent. imagine a film with 200 million budget, 100 million p&a and ticket revenues 1 billion. 1000M/2 is 500M. this is aproximatelly what distributors get. 500M-100M (p&a) is 400M. 400M - 12 percent (distributor fee), 400-48 = 352M.so it is more like 35 percent. in reality there are other expenses and the percentage would be even less. this is why if a movie costs 250M to make it need to make 700M just to break even from theaters.

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.p...-receipts-and-other-revenue-sources/?p=210724

 

[BMM]

I believe Fox distributes its own movies in the US, as well as overseas.

 

[psylockolussus]

Its a good thing that Fox distributes the X-Men movies. They will probably get more money in DOFP's box-office compare to the money they will get from How 2 Train Your Dragon's box-office revenue. This is Fox's biggest film this year! YASSS!

 

[Rock Sexton]

I believe Fox distributes its own movies in the US, as well as overseas.

I was about to ask that.

 

[psylockolussus]

And now you know.

If you want more proof, check box-office mojo foreign section for DOFP. Except for China/Hungary/Finland/CzechRepublic/Hungary/Poland and South Africa, Fox is the distributor for overseas market.

 

[SAUspartan]

Tell me about it.

Yep. It's the same few as well.