Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[Jennyfromasgard]

Acording to most Chinese moviegoers,it'd better not. Chinese moviegoers don't like the actress,They prefer Mariko.

I've seen you slandering Fan quite a few times and I'm kind of curious what about her upsets you so much. She did an awesome job as Blink, had such presence in very limited screen time.
From what I've looked up, movies involving Fan in the past 5 years all got amazingly high (some of which record-breaking) box offices in China. According to The Hollywood Reporter, DoFP took a muscular $39.35 million in its first three days in China (biggest open of the year), "boosted by the movie's Chinese star Fan Bingbing and a well-received visit by key cast". I just don't buy it that "most Chinese moviegoers" would avoid her movies.

 

[Mr.M]

I think calling it a mild disappointment is fair. Considering the marketing blitz, they were probably hoping for a bigger splash.

But it's fair to remember that when it comes to franchises like this, you make the big money with the film following the best received movie. X3, TDKR, SM3, etc. all followed beloved movies. TWS got the Avengers bump. DOFP was following The Wolverine and FC, which were both just OK in terms of reception. Expecting huge BO numbers was silly.

I figured this thing would gross $600-650M, and I think that's fair.

Yeah, looks like I overestimated. After watching it, it's obvious that X-Men isn't accessible to the masses by in large. You deal with serious, darker, real world issues in a completely fantastical, sci-fi, world filled with super powered beings with unrealistic powers. It's a double whammy effect, because those comic booky elements immediately eliminate one portion of the audience, while the serious, drama aspect eliminates the younger audience.

But obviously the franchise has been incredibly damaged after X-3 nearly ended it with a thud, followed by Origins bringing it to new depths of low. And Wolverine has been overexposed at this point. But it's clear the OT cast alone doesn't have the same pull any longer. Bringing them back past their primes is not the answer.

The answer is to get an actor like Tatum, use Jackman in a more selective role, and have Roland Emmerich type destruction, so they have that contrasting style of blockbuster elements while staying within the X-Men cinematic framework. Do that, and you have an 800 million dollar film.

 

[Onslaught-]

http://screenrant.com/maleficent-box-office-prediction-million-ways-die-west/

They are predicting X-Men stays at #1

 

[antonydelfini]

I have a feeling this could reach 700 million because of word of mouth and strong overseas numbers. 600-650 wont be bad since that would be the franchise best. TASM 2's numbers are being criticized because of the bigger numbers for the past Spidey movies.

 

[Liam_H]

http://screenrant.com/maleficent-box-office-prediction-million-ways-die-west/

They are predicting X-Men stays at #1

Yea but they don't give a number for it. They do list Maleficent tracking at $64M. So if they believe its going to open around that then there's no way DOFP will be #1 again, it would be lucky to even hit $40M for its 2nd weekend.

 

[NJCaliboi]

Yeah, looks like I overestimated. After watching it, it's obvious that X-Men isn't accessible to the masses by in large. You deal with serious, darker, real world issues in a completely fantastical, sci-fi, world filled with super powered beings with unrealistic powers. It's a double whammy effect, because those comic booky elements immediately eliminate one portion of the audience, while the serious, drama aspect eliminates the younger audience.

But obviously the franchise has been incredibly damaged after X-3 nearly ended it with a thud, followed by Origins bringing it to new depths of low. And Wolverine has been overexposed at this point. But it's clear the OT cast alone doesn't have the same pull any longer. Bringing them back past their primes is not the answer.

The answer is to get an actor like Tatum, use Jackman in a more selective role, and have Roland Emmerich type destruction, so they have that contrasting style of blockbuster elements while staying within the X-Men cinematic framework. Do that, and you have an 800 million dollar film.

I hear what you're saying I just feel u may be oversimplifying things a bit. For you not to acknowledge that jumping up nearly 20 million in the first week, compared to First Class, is a testament to the strength of the original cast seems odd to me. In two weeks time DOFP will likely eclipse the entire run of First Class- again, not seeing that as evidence of the Original cast box office appeal ...

I dont think the answer is Tatum, an actor who a lot of people have a hard time taking serious and an actor whose casting is divisive amongst hardcore X-fans. Hugh hardly seems the answer when u consider his movies are the lowest grossing in the franchise. I think you have to get goodwill back and this movie was wildly successful in doing that. The general public wasn't clamoring for another movie. There wasn't any excitement brewing for another X-movie so they had a lot of work to do. I think at this point its mostly 'mission accomplished'. This movie has created excitement and I think u will see that rewarded with huge number for Apocalypse.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

X-Men has no chance of staying number one. And whocares about it's placement on the charts? What's important is the percentage drop.

 

[Sun_Down]

I can see this thing having decent legs. Nothing until GOTG is really moving the needle for me, personally. I've heard a lot of people talking about Maleficant, but I can't imagine it drawing that 18-34 male demo.

 

[JP]

http://screenrant.com/maleficent-box-office-prediction-million-ways-die-west/

They are predicting X-Men stays at #1

Don't count on it. Unless it makes more than $60m (LOL) or Maleficent makes less than $40 (LOL).

 

[Ms. Marvel]

^^ You could say the same thing about Twilight.

 

[psylockolussus]

So with the 4 day actuals, the absolute minimum this should make domestically is $220M. I am hoping this movie actually shows some legs and can push it to $240-250M.

Same here, X3 had really bad legs and I hope this one will have better legs for it to outgross X3.

The last scene of the film was a tease.

I wouldn't say DoFP is X4. It is clearly a First Class sequel imo, down to the last scene being First Class related. The vast majority of the film is with the First Class crew.

I bring up Frozen and DM as an example of why those films are such big successes. It isn't simply their box office, it is the cash they make else where. X-Men doesn't do that kind of box office, and they don't have the merch to parlay that into "Everything is Awesome" territory.

You seem obsessed with the figure of $500m, but lets be real for a second. That is 3D and inflation doing its job.

Including Hugh Jackman's Wolverine? What most people are forgetting is the FC cast shares most of their screentime with the OT's Wolverine and the Wolverine we saw here is very well connected to the OT cast members that appeared in the film. Heck, the only time I felt like it was truly FC2 when Logan was thrown in the river and it was just the 4 FC cast members and yet at that time, they were going back and forth to the future.

And I'm not obsessed with $500 m, all I said it would be decent gross for the studio. I didn't say it would be seen as groundbreaking success as Frozen/Despicable Me. You keep making as if $500 million is a bad thing and its not.

 

[psylockolussus]

Major disappointment? What are you smoking?

LOL exactly!

Its not like they spent 300 million and earned just 200 million in the U.S. The budget is 200m according to Box Office Mojo. I don't think see 600 million worldwide is a bad thing given that FC only earned 353m ww and The Wolverine/X3 didn't even hit $500m worldwide and the last 2 films weren't exactly box-office juggernauts.

 

[sf2]

Unless the legs are bad.

most unlikely. many of us have already planned to re-watch it 2nd / 3rd times.

 

[mmaeric]

Xmen have had the biggest global opening of 2014

And Foxs biggest global opening of all time beating out avatar

 

[psylockolussus]

Fox must be happy!

 

[X-Maniac]

I think we have to remember that this is a discussion forum where all aspects of these films are discussed. The studio is also the ones that need to worry about the casting, choice of director, script, etc. but we discuss those all ad nauseam. Most like to tell them what they should do from a creative standpoint. Heck, look at the Rogue thread.

I usually hear the, "its none of our business" and "we aren't the studio" when a film isn't locked for a billion. Otherwise, it is a celebration.

I don't do the 'celebration' either. i have no personal financial stake in these movies. I might be surprised, amazed, delighted or whatnot, but I am not prone to dancing round the room over box office, because it doesn't affect me personally. When Avengers or Avatar made the money they did, I wasn't 'celebrating'. Sounds like some people here are overly involved in things!

 

[X-Maniac]

Yeah, looks like I overestimated. After watching it, it's obvious that X-Men isn't accessible to the masses by in large. You deal with serious, darker, real world issues in a completely fantastical, sci-fi, world filled with super powered beings with unrealistic powers. It's a double whammy effect, because those comic booky elements immediately eliminate one portion of the audience, while the serious, drama aspect eliminates the younger audience.

They did make it dark and very sombre, that's true. And to be honest I didn't think the f-word, p-word and Jackman's butt were necessary. Also, the lack of another action scene in the past made it seem more drama-focused.

But obviously the franchise has been incredibly damaged after X-3 nearly ended it with a thud, followed by Origins bringing it to new depths of low. And Wolverine has been overexposed at this point. But it's clear the OT cast alone doesn't have the same pull any longer. Bringing them back past their primes is not the answer.

I think it's more to do with the tone of the advertising and the tone of the movie. This was presented as a very serious, sombre affair, not exactly as a fun family day out over the holiday weekend. Also, X-Men are not 'pop culture', even after all these films.

The answer is to get an actor like Tatum, use Jackman in a more selective role, and have Roland Emmerich type destruction, so they have that contrasting style of blockbuster elements while staying within the X-Men cinematic framework. Do that, and you have an 800 million dollar film.

I don't think you need Emmerich-level destruction necessarily (at least not too much of that stuff, it can be fatiguing to watch - see end of Man of Steel, parts of CA:TWS), but a slightly lighter tone and a bit more action would help.

 

[Lord]

I think that what the X-Men franchise needs to build stronger roots in the box office are more quality films mixed with large scale, the big promotion and scale of DoFP are what's helping it make such a good profit and get so much interest, while quality makes people want to stay with it. This is one of the reasons why the MCU is being so successful, you get various quality movies each year, with an event film every now and then, this strategy consistently makes the fanbase grow, while still keeping the fans interested.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yea but they don't give a number for it. They do list Maleficent tracking at $64M. So if they believe its going to open around that then there's no way DOFP will be #1 again, it would be lucky to even hit $40M for its 2nd weekend.

Yeah, that is one big contradiction.

X-Men has no chance of staying number one. And whocares about it's placement on the charts? What's important is the percentage drop.

It has a chance if Maleficent bombs, but I doubt that at this point. But that aside, you are exactly right. What matters is how much of its first weekend total DoFP hang onto.

And I'm not obsessed with $500 m, all I said it would be decent gross for the studio. I didn't say it would be seen as groundbreaking success as Frozen/Despicable Me. You keep making as if $500 million is a bad thing and its not.

For this film, $500m would have been a small disaster. You can't spend $200m on production alone and produce a film that only grosses $500m and that be anything but a problem. With the wrong kind of splits, they'd have trouble simply covering the production cost.

Thankfully that isn't the case here. Well on its way to $600m, $700m definitely in range imo. Which is good news to me, the film deserves it.

I don't do the 'celebration' either. i have no personal financial stake in these movies. I might be surprised, amazed, delighted or whatnot, but I am not prone to dancing round the room over box office, because it doesn't affect me personally. When Avengers or Avatar made the money they did, I wasn't 'celebrating'. Sounds like some people here are overly involved in things!

I think it is all good fun and a part of being a fan when you celebrate a box office win, especially as they usually means good things for potential sequels, whether it is simply budget. As long as you aren't busy rubbing it in the face of other fans, what is the problem really?

 

[HIA]

and cool looking costumes would help too. We all know how kids/teenagers love the idea of being a superhero and having a superhero costume. And since the 70s didnt have a real superhero team with superhero costumes, I guess part of the general audience wasnt as interested in this movie.
And lets not forget about merchandise focused on the younger audience. No toys, no action figures, no superhero costumes to appeal to this young audience

 

[JP]

So far:

Maleficent: 57%
Million Ways: 40%


Let's hope audiences are smart this weekend. Thankfully Million Ways isn't tracking well to begin with, so hopefully WOM kills it.

 

[Lord]

It's a shame but most people seem to like Seth MacFarlane, so i think that along with Maleficent, X-Men will have some though competition, let's just hope that word of mouth helps it reach the number it deserves.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A Million Ways to Die in the West could very well bomb, worse then Blended. I would not expect Maleficent to, but anything is possible.

 

[JP]

We'll get predictions today. I expect X-Men to stay closer to the low ends of said predictions. Always does.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

We'll get predictions today. I expect X-Men to stay closer to the low ends of said predictions. Always does.

I thought predictions usually came out on Thursdays, or am I waiting an extra day for no reason?

Also, I am insanely curious. Love a good bit of box office talk. t: