Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[iEquinox]

14.9M is a good number. Saturday won't be much bigger though, because Friday was Veterans Day that number won't go up much on saturday.

2011 was the last time Veterans Day was on a Friday. Most movies got between +0 and +10% on saturday back then. If Doctor Strange can get +5% saturday and -42% sunday it'll end up with 40M.

It should be close to 40M.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

14.9M is a good number. Saturday won't be much bigger though, because Friday was Veterans Day that number won't go up much on saturday.

2011 was the last time Veterans Day was on a Friday. Most movies got between +0 and +10% on saturday back then. If Doctor Strange can get +5% saturday and -42% sunday it'll end up with 40M.

It should be close to 40M.

Yep, Saturday's increase will be muted and Sunday will be as usual but 40 million+ for the weekend is a lock right now.

 

[iEquinox]

Yep, the-numbers also agrees that 40M+ is likely now.

Doctor Strange held on better than expected to earn $14.92 million on Friday. This was down just 54% compared to its opening Friday. This is partially due to its reviews, but also due to Veterans Day landing on a Friday. It won’t bounce back as much as other sophomore films do in this case, but even if it has the exact same internal multiplier as it did last weekend, it will pull in $39 million this weekend and match our prediction. It will likely top $40 million, maybe even hitting $42 million, if it is lucky.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217...octor-Heals-the-Box-Office-with-14-92-million

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

what's the current total WW?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

what's the current total WW?

DS was at 377.5 million at the end of Thursday.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

DS was at 377.5 million at the end of Thursday.

merci

 

[JKKS085]

14.9M should put the we right around 40M. Deadline is way too optimistic I think with their 43M prediction underestimating the effect of Veteran's day falling on Friday.
Nonetheless 40M will be a tremendous 2nd week end number. Apparently hungover America needs escapism, big league.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...asgard-ds-13-14-trolls-115-arrival-9/?page=21

According to Rth (an insider from boxofficetheory) Doctor Strange made 17,7 m on Saturday. That means that 43-45 m weekend is possible.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/t...asgard-ds-13-14-trolls-115-arrival-9/?page=21

According to Rth (an insider from boxofficetheory) Doctor Strange made 17,7 m on Saturday. That means that 43-45 m weekend is possible.

That would be incredible, good for Mister Doctor.

 

[JKKS085]

Just FYI, after a $133.6M opening, Suicide Squad went on to make $43.5M in its second week end. It will be interesting to see if Strange can outgross it this week end.
In any case that's an impressive increase on Saturday and the movie is just about to post one the best first to second week end hold in the genre (should be Marvel Studio's third best behind Thor & Iron Man). Very glad it's beating almost every prediction.

 

[iEquinox]

$43,032,000 is the weekend estimate.
A 49% drop for a total of 153M.

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

 

[JOE]

These are solid numbers. Are we looking at GOTG final numbers? Or more like IM2 numbers?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/797836024948912128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

#DoctorStrange #1 again w/ $43M wknd. Impressive new totals at $153M dom & $492.6M global.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

A 49% decline is excellent. Anything under 50 is getting hard to come by.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A sub 50% is insanely good, especially for a CBM. Wow.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Incredible hold. My original domestic prediction was $180 million. I am now going to change that to $220 million on the low end and $280 million as the ceiling.

 

[iEquinox]

These are solid numbers. Are we looking at GOTG final numbers? Or more like IM2 numbers?

Domestically it will end below both. Worldwide I think it will end up somewhere between IM2 and GotG. It has a good chance of beating TWS's worldwide total of 714.4M.

Domestically the total after the 2nd weekend is 153M, so that's between TDW(145.1M) and TWS(158.9M). It should get a big drop next weekend(No holiday to help it, and strong competition with Fantastic Beasts), so I don't think it can keep up with TWS's pace. But it should continue to beat TDW, which had a 61% drop in the 3rd weekend thanks to a 158M+ opening by the Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

I think the domestic total should end up somewhere in the middle between TDW(206.4M) and TWS(259.7M), at about 225/230M.

 

[InCali]

A 49% decline is excellent. Anything under 50 is getting hard to come by.

That IS pretty good. It was helped by the extra day, but still.....

Next week, it takes a big hit. What is typical when a movie like this (CBMs in general), comes up against a relatively popular wide screen release? 60+ % I would imagine. Especially because FB will appeal to the same demographic (like me) AND there should be an extra drop because of no holiday. I would say anything around 15M or so would be fine. Give it maybe another 12 M for M-Th and we're looking at about 180M by the end of next weekend?

 

[InCali]

These are solid numbers. Are we looking at GOTG final numbers? Or more like IM2 numbers?

No chance for GotG numbers. The release date, competition, and OW numbers make that virtually impossible. Remember that GotG had an UNBELIEVABLE multiplier for a CBM and opened in the 90M range. I tracked it pretty closely because I liked it. IM2 not so much.....and I'm too lazy to look it up.

 

[terry78]

I was sure Arrival was gonna beat it considering how packed showings were. But no complaints.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I was sure Arrival was gonna beat it considering how packed showings were. But no complaints.

Arrival barely has 2300 theater counts plus Arrival is not a crowd pleasing blockbuster, it was never going to beat DS.

 

[JKKS085]

That's a terrific second week end hold. Now next week end is going to be brutal (no holiday + stiff competition) but it should recover after that, since it will benefit from the long Thanksgiving week end just the week after.
After just a quick comparison with other high profile novembre releases, if from now one, factoring in its early lead, DS get TTDW legs it will end up with around 217M. If it holds like Spectre it should finish in the 238M range. The comparison is interesting because aside from being released in the same spot as Strange both films ended up facing a 100M+ opener going into their 3rd week end. Strange is obviously posting a much better second week end hold than any of those films (hold that could not be entirely attributed to the holiday) so it is still likely to hold better going forward. I tried to stay on the cautious side of predictions so far but I think DS now has a distinct chance of making 240M+ dom.

240 dom / 510 os seems to be in the cards.

 

[InCali]

Arrival barely has 2300 theater counts plus Arrival is not a crowd pleasing blockbuster, it was never going to beat DS.

I didn't realize the theater count was that low until I looked at the showtimes (of which there were not many). I didn't know the exact number, but it was pretty clear it didn't have a super wide release. Until that time, I thought it would be #1 too. The previews looked pretty good.

 

[InCali]

That's a terrific second week end hold. Now next week end is going to be brutal (no holiday + stiff competition) but it should recover after that, since it will benefit from the long Thanksgiving week end just the week after.
After just a quick comparison with other high profile novembre releases, if from now one, factoring in its early lead, DS get TTDW legs it will end up with around 217M. If it holds like Spectre it should finish in the 238M range. The comparison is interesting because aside from being released in the spot as Strange both films ended up facing a 100M+ opener going into their 3rd week end. Strange is obviously posting a much better second week end hold than any of those films (hold that could not be entirely attributed to the holiday) so it is still likely to hold better. I tried to stay on the cautious side of predictions so far but I think DS as now a distinct chance of making 240M+ dom.

240 dom / 510 os seems to be in the cards.

That would be killer. Anything in that range would be killer. I am getting juiced for IW. I am REALLY wanting to see these new characters (meaning other than IM, Thor, and CA and, yes, I realize we've already seen Spidey, BP, and AM) team up. CM is one I'm REALLY looking forward to.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Looks like this is going to fly by 210 m.

Most MCU origin movies run out of gas at 180 m.