Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Solaire]

Can it really crack 700 million? That really would've fantastic if it does but 600 is also great too. Which film will be called Marvel's first flop now that Strange has done well both in box office and critics?

 

[InCali]

Can it really crack 700 million? That really would've fantastic if it does but 600 is also great too. Which film will be called Marvel's first flop now that Strange has done well both in box office and critics?

Black Panther???Infinity Wars??? GotG2??? LOL. Sorry, I think we're all out of bombs for Phase 3.

 

[Darepool]

It depends on the expectations and how reasonable they are for each particular property. Based on this poll, I'd say the vast majority had reasonable expectations for an origin Dr. Strange film I don't really see an actual 'flop' coming anytime soon (in terms of financials), unless the filmmakers drop the ball completely.

 

[InCali]

It depends on the expectations and how reasonable they are for each particular property. Based on this poll, I'd say the vast majority had reasonable expectations for an origin Dr. Strange film I don't really see an actual 'flop' coming anytime soon (in terms of financials), unless the filmmakers drop the ball completely.

I think Marvel is WAY too careful for that to happen. Captain Marvel probably has the greatest chance for bombing as she is a new character. So, what does Marvel do? They go out and hire an Academy Award winner who just oozes charm and spend a TON of time on the script. They will do whatever they have to do to make sure this movie is a success. "That" is how it's done.

 

[marcvader]

Per Exhibitors Relations $42,970,065

 

[Zarex]

I think Marvel is WAY too careful for that to happen. Captain Marvel probably has the greatest chance for bombing as she is a new character. So, what does Marvel do? They go out and hire an Academy Award winner who just oozes charm and spend a TON of time on the script. They will do whatever they have to do to make sure this movie is a success. "That" is how it's done.

Also, introduce her in "Avengers: Infinity War".

 

[InCali]

Also, introduce her in "Avengers: Infinity War".

I also was going to put that in, but decided not to since we don't know for 100% sure. I would put a large bet on Carol Danvers being introduced in IW1, develop her character somewhat, and have her disappear during a battle. They'll intro her as tough, a better pilot than anyone else, and, probably, have her do something heroic that saves her squadron.

 

[JKKS085]

ww numbers are a few millions up from estimates (although dom is slightly down).

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $152,952,234 31.0%
+ Foreign: $341,075,890 69.0%
= Worldwide: $494,028,124

Based on those number, I'm projecting a final domestic tally of 230/240M and a worldwide finish around 740/770M.
The competition obviously makes it hard to predict and I will gladly admit that the higher end of my predictions is probably on the (very) optimistic side of things but I would be extremely surprised if it doesn't at least beat TASM2 (708M) and CATWS (714M).

 

[InCali]

ww numbers are a couple millions up from estimates (although dom is slightly down).

I think it is only down less than 100k. I don't remember the exact estimate, but it was just barely over 43M. Now it's just barely under.

 

[los pollos]

I think it is only down less than 100k. I don't remember the exact estimate, but it was just barely over 43M. Now it's just barely under.

$43,032,000 vs $42,970,065, a $61,935 difference or 0.1% difference from the estimates.

This movie is really doing well, beyond what I expected it could. I never thought this movie could out-gross a Spider-Man movie domestically or world wide, but it likely will out-perform ASM2 which is a testament to not only the Marvel Studios brand, but the decision making of Feigie and his team.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

And the awfulness of ASM2. We mustn't forget that.

 

[AverageMan]

Brilliant numbers so far.
What will be a success for marvel in terms of BO numbers? If it outgrosses GOTG? Deadpool?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Brilliant numbers so far.
What will be a success for marvel in terms of BO numbers? If it outgrosses GOTG? Deadpool?

Just quadruple the budget for the movie and I'm talking about the production budget (P &A costs not included) and you have a good benchmark to judge the financial success of this movie.

Now that it's evident that DS will go past 660 million and has a shot at 700 million, it's already a huge hit.

 

[Stark Bauer]

3rd weekend projection: $21-25 million. source: me

I think Captain Marvel is a potential flop since all the female led super hero movies have bombed. What MS has to do is to market CM to the male audience make it appealing to us men and make us come out to the movies by marketing it as an incredible must see experience instead of a girl power ghostbusters ino type of experience. Take out the gender being the main draw - make it all about the compelling story and what makes Carol Danvers a charming character.

And don't cheapen it by having Iron Man or any other male superhero cameo in the trailers - make it about her struggle and the impossible situation she needs to overcome that we can all relate to

 

[Zarex]

I think Captain Marvel is a potential flop since all the female led super hero movies have bombed. What MS has to do is to market CM to the male audience make it appealing to us men and make us come out to the movies by marketing it as an incredible must see experience instead of a girl power ghostbusters ino type of experience. Take out the gender being the main draw - make it all about the compelling story and what makes Carol Danvers a charming character.

All female led superhero movies have been awful. A good one would have an very good chance of succeeding.

Marvel will certainly play up the "girl power" aspect of a character that began as a feminist who dared to use the controversial title of "Ms." I don't recall, however, any "girl power" marketing for the ghosterbusters film.

And don't cheapen it by having Iron Man or any other male superhero cameo in the trailers - make it about her struggle and the impossible situation she needs to overcome that we can all relate to

I would be surprised if Rhodey doesn't have a major role in the film. But he probably is done with the War Machine armor.

 

[iEquinox]

3rd weekend projection: $21-25 million. source: me

21-25 million would be an insanely good hold. Last weekend friday was a holiday. And Fantastic Beasts is coming next weekend too. I would be very surprised if it only drops by 50%.

I would expect a 3rd weekend drop of about 60%, for a weekend somewhere in the 15-19 million range.

 

[los pollos]

I think Captain Marvel is a potential flop since all the female led super hero movies have bombed. What MS has to do is to market CM to the male audience make it appealing to us men and make us come out to the movies by marketing it as an incredible must see experience instead of a girl power ghostbusters ino type of experience. Take out the gender being the main draw - make it all about the compelling story and what makes Carol Danvers a charming character.

Under any other studio I would agree, but I just don't see how it could flop at this point. I really think this movie has a big chance of being a hit simply because the Marvel Studios branding is so strong. Marvel has shown that the GA will show up to see their movies regardless of who it's about. The GA just knows that these movies are at a standard of quality consistently higher than blockbusters from other studios. Any movie has a potential to flop, but the chances of that happening to Ms Marvel looks fairly low to me.

 

[iEquinox]

Looks like next weekend drop could be close to 55%. If it is, next weekend would be in the 19-20 million range. It needs about 19.4 million to keep the theater average above the $5,000 mark, which would help its legs in weekend 4, because that means it doesn't lose as many theaters:

Doctor Strange benefited from Remembrance Day in an unexpected way. Remembrance Day isn’t usually associated with going to the movies; on the other hand, it usually doesn’t land on a Friday. The film fell just 49% over the weekend earning $42.97 million for a total of $152.95 million after 10 days of release. Even if it falls by close to 55% next weekend, its theater average will still be above $5,000 meaning it won’t lose too many theaters over Thanksgiving weekend and that will really help its box office numbers going forward.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217310830-Weekend-Wrap-Up-The-Holiday-Box-Office-Season-has-Arrived

 

[Blitzkrieg]

2.638 million on 2nd Monday.

 

[Wildcard]

Brilliant numbers so far.
What will be a success for marvel in terms of BO numbers? If it outgrosses GOTG? Deadpool?

This could've been a hit even if it only fell within the $500-$600 million range. Even though it most likely will, it didn't have to outgross GOTG & DP to be a success.

It's just a bonus that it will.

 

[InCali]

Brilliant numbers so far.
What will be a success for marvel in terms of BO numbers? If it outgrosses GOTG? Deadpool?

Anywhere in that ballpark is a shot in the centerfield bleachers.

 

[Tony Stark]

No doubt once Rogue One rolls into theaters Disney will solidity itself in the no 1 position for market share for 2016. They were edged out by Universal last year, and that was with Universal having some huge hits on its roster like JW and FF7, but this will be the first year Disney will finish no 1., and there will be a pretty large gap for the no 2 spot.

Zootopia, Jungle Book, CA:CW, Finding Dory, Dr. Strange, Rogue One. That's one hell of a year. Plus we'll see how Moana fairs, although I'm not expecting it to be as successful as frozen.

They had some misses in there too, with BFG and Alice through the looking glass, but they also had some modest successes like Pete's Dragon

 

[InCali]

3rd weekend projection: $21-25 million. source: me

I think Captain Marvel is a potential flop since all the female led super hero movies have bombed. What MS has to do is to market CM to the male audience make it appealing to us men and make us come out to the movies by marketing it as an incredible must see experience instead of a girl power ghostbusters ino type of experience. Take out the gender being the main draw - make it all about the compelling story and what makes Carol Danvers a charming character.

And don't cheapen it by having Iron Man or any other male superhero cameo in the trailers - make it about her struggle and the impossible situation she needs to overcome that we can all relate to

I suppose the potential is there but think they'll showcase the ultra charming and talented Brie Larson in IW 1 as Carol and have a dynamite script. Feige and co. have a huge stake in this movie and I think they'll pull out all the stops. Bottom line is that it'll hit big.

 

[Darepool]

No doubt once Rogue One rolls into theaters Disney will solidity itself in the no 1 position for market share for 2016. They were edged out by Universal last year, and that was with Universal having some huge hits on its roster like JW and FF7, but this will be the first year Disney will finish no 1., and there will be a pretty large gap for the no 2 spot.

Zootopia, Jungle Book, CA:CW, Finding Dory, Dr. Strange, Rogue One. That's one hell of a year. Plus we'll see how Moana fairs, although I'm not expecting it to be as successful as frozen.

They had some misses in there too, with BFG and Alice through the looking glass, but they also had some modest successes like Pete's Dragon

First studio to cross 8 billion. A record I only see Disney challenging consistently or breaking in the next 5 + years, although there are always surprises. If the DCEU gets going and the new Potter series becomes a hit, WB will challenge this as well.

 

[metaphysician]

Black Panther???Infinity Wars??? GotG2??? LOL. Sorry, I think we're all out of bombs for Phase 3.

Nah. Every single future Marvel film will be "Marvel's first bomb". Its inevitable. Just like after each success, the film suddenly becomes "perfectly safe".