Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Tymminator]

How is this any different than Marvel Studios announcing things for Phase 4 and beyond when we're only in Phase 3 of the MCU?

Also, are people here genuinely not liking Fantastic Beasts- those that have actually seen it- or just looking for any and every reason to either dump on it or hope it doesn't rain on Doctor Strange's box office parade?

Yes there is going to be a Phase 4, but they have yet to announce just what IS IN Phase 4 yet. Marvel has not announced sequels for movies until after they watched how the previous movies had performed and were received.

Re: FB, I myself enjoyed it enough. I like the HP world so the movie was a good time to me. I just personally would not make 5 movies just on FB myself, I would like to see other stories though, like maybe movies on the first Order of the Phoenix fighting Deatheaters/Voldermort or other stores, but that said, if they make the movies, I will check them out as I like that world and its success doesn't hurt my appreaction for Dr Strange.

I'll be buying both movies on bluray.

 

[Silver Surfer]

How is this any different than Marvel Studios announcing things for Phase 4 and beyond when we're only in Phase 3 of the MCU?

Also, are people here genuinely not liking Fantastic Beasts- those that have actually seen it- or just looking for any and every reason to either dump on it or hope it doesn't rain on Doctor Strange's box office parade?

That's a false equivalence. A true equivalence, if you want to draw it, would be Marvel announcing 5 sequels to Captain Marvel or Black Panther before their releases.

 

[AlluAllu]

Also, Marvel knows that it is successful right now. There have been some years since the last Harry Potter and the blockbuster climate might have changed.

 

[NotNickFury]

That's a false equivalence. A true equivalence, if you want to draw it, would be Marvel announcing 5 sequels to Captain Marvel or Black Panther before their releases.

Hardly. Still a slate of films announced far in advance, and then even altered when inhumans, for example, was pulled. Marcel's proven track record doesn't negate that it's still announcing franchises and films well in advance when some still may get swapped out or pulled altogether. Look at Agent Carter. That series could have gone on for some time and it did have the Marvel name, but ratings-wise, it was a bomb, so any future work that franchise could have had will never be now.

 

[Typhoon22]

How is this any different than Marvel Studios announcing things for Phase 4 and beyond when we're only in Phase 3 of the MCU?

Well I don't remember Marvel ever announcing 3 or more sequels to the same title do you ? Have they ever announced 3 or more sequels to Iron Man before even showing the 1st ? If so please show me.

And when did Marvel announce anything for Phase 4 and beyond ?

Marvel has shown phase 3 films in advance like DrStrange,Thor3, BP etc. but they've earned the right to do that with the goodwill they build.

 

[iEquinox]

The weekend estimate is $17,676,000.
http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

The domestic total is now $181,542,877, and the international numbers were also updated to $390,000,000. Worldwide total is now $571,542,877.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel716.htm

And Fantastic Beasts' estimate is 75m.

 

[JKKS085]

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $181,542,877 31.8%
+ Foreign: $390,000,000 68.2%
= Worldwide: $571,542,877

Steep drops all across the board as expected.
Now wether or not it recovers next week end will determine if 700M+ is still in play or if it'll end up just shy of that number.
Based on the we numbers it looks like it can get to 230M dom/490 os for a worldwide finish around the 720M mark.
The good news is that it is closing in on 2008 Iron Man's 585.2M ww (which was my arbitrary bar for success) and is just about to become the most successful solo origin movie in the MCU.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

And Fantastic Beasts' estimate is 75m.

Quite unremarkable really.

 

[ADollarADay]

Steep drops all across the board as expected.
Now wether or not it recovers next week end will determine if 700M+ is still in play or if it'll end up just shy of that number.
Based on the we numbers it looks like it can get to 230M dom/390 os for a worldwide finish around the 720M mark.
The good news is that it is closing in on 2008 Iron Man's 585.2M ww (which was my arbitrary bar for success) and is just about to become the most successful solo origin movie in the MCU.

You mean 490 os

Quite unremarkable really.

It did better than expected os though.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Every f**kin movie got the shaft this weekend except Hacksaw Ridge, DS should recover really well next weekend tho.

 

[Darepool]

On pace for 700 m. Check.

I'm happy.

 

[JKKS085]

You mean 490 os

Yes

 

[JKKS085]

Every f**kin movie got the shaft this weekend except Hacksaw Ridge, DS should recover really well next weekend tho.

Yep, Arrival dropping 50%+ is a shocker.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Hardly. Still a slate of films announced far in advance, and then even altered when inhumans, for example, was pulled. Marcel's proven track record doesn't negate that it's still announcing franchises and films well in advance when some still may get swapped out or pulled altogether. Look at Agent Carter. That series could have gone on for some time and it did have the Marvel name, but ratings-wise, it was a bomb, so any future work that franchise could have had will never be now.

Dude you're making no sense, Marvel has never announced 5 sequels to a solo movie before it's even released, never, which is what WB idiotically did, and now it's blowing up in their face.

 

[Darepool]

Marvel has expectations/ideas for sequels, but they don't make it public before release. I can certainly forgive WB here considering the Potter brand is huge, particularly overseas. They wanted to rally the troops into a frenzy. That makes sense to me. It can still be a franchise, it just won't be the Potter juggernaut they had in the past. That's OK, not all franchises are created equal.

 

[InCali]

Man, f**k this weekend. First FB's OW and now DS and Trolls with near abysmal drops. Even with the last weekend having been helped by veteran's day, I really thought DS would at least reach 19 million and Trolls will post north of 20 million. Damn this weekend.

Because of all the factors, I felt it would drop by at least 60% and end up at about 180M, so I'd say Unf**k this weekend. I think Strange is set to hold up better than FB (liked them both, but DS had much better pacing....and acting).

 

[Doctor Octopus]

Every f**kin movie got the shaft this weekend except Hacksaw Ridge, DS should recover really well next weekend tho.

Agreed. It still making good money.

 

[Typhoon22]

Even though there might not be any parallels here it's still fun to see the difference in terms of total BO WW for the origin film and its sequel.

Iron Man 1 582m WW
Iron Man 2 623m WW

Thor 1 449m WW
Thor 2 644m WW

Cap 1 370m WW
Cap 2 714m WW

DS at least 600m WW and counting
DS2 ???????

So the sequels always improved on the first in terms of BO.

The best comparison here is Thor which opened in the same period.
Iron Man and Cap both released in May/June so best time to release a film. Dr.Strange was initially going to be released in the summer but got moved back because of Benedicts schedule. So Dr.Strange made this much in november. That is quite telling. If it had released in summer it could've done better. And probably would've. I'm assuming they're gonna move the sequel to the best slot possible.

DS is already Marvels financially best origin film. It'll probably stay that way after the sequel. It has even a shot to maintain that after the trilogy if it happens and they both don't drop the ball. And this with Cap 3 being essentially an Avengers film. Iron Man 3 is the only anomaly here. Still to this day I have no clue how that made 1.2b. Who is to say it won't happen with Dr.Strange 3 ? They've build a strong foundation with the first. Now they gotta take their sweet time with it and announce it when it's the best it can be and ready and not a moment before like with the sequels to IM and Thor.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Even though there might not be any parallels here it's still fun to see the difference in terms of total BO WW for the origin film and its sequel.

Iron Man 1 582m WW
Iron Man 2 623m WW

Thor 1 449m WW
Thor 2 644m WW

Cap 1 370m WW
Cap 2 714m WW

DS at least 600m WW and counting
DS2 ???????

So the sequels always improved on the first in terms of BO.

The best comparison here is Thor which opened in the same period.
Iron Man and Cap both released in May/June so best time to release a film. Dr.Strange was initially going to be released in the summer but got moved back because of Benedicts schedule. So Dr.Strange made this much in november. That is quite telling. If it had released in summer it could've done better. And probably would've. I'm assuming they're gonna move the sequel to the best slot possible.

DS is already Marvels financially best origin film. It'll probably stay that way after the sequel. It has even a shot to maintain that after the trilogy if it happens and they both don't drop the ball. And this with Cap 3 being essentially an Avengers film. Iron Man 3 is the only anomaly here. Still to this day I have no clue how that made 1.2b. Who is to say it won't happen with Dr.Strange 3 ? They've build a strong foundation with the first. Now they gotta take their sweet time with it and announce it when it's the best it can be and ready and not a moment before like with the sequels to IM and Thor.

I'm guessing Strange 2 and 3 will get a boost from Avengers 3 and 4 not to mention cameos from other popular Avenger characters in his sequels.

 

[InCali]

Even though there might not be any parallels here it's still fun to see the difference in terms of total BO WW for the origin film and its sequel.

Iron Man 1 582m WW
Iron Man 2 623m WW

Thor 1 449m WW
Thor 2 644m WW

Cap 1 370m WW
Cap 2 714m WW

DS at least 600m WW and counting
DS2 ???????

So the sequels always improved on the first in terms of BO.

The best comparison here is Thor which opened in the same period.
Iron Man and Cap both released in May/June so best time to release a film. Dr.Strange was initially going to be released in the summer but got moved back because of Benedicts schedule. So Dr.Strange made this much in november. That is quite telling. If it had released in summer it could've done better. And probably would've. I'm assuming they're gonna move the sequel to the best slot possible.

DS is already Marvels financially best origin film. It'll probably stay that way after the sequel. It has even a shot to maintain that after the trilogy if it happens and they both don't drop the ball. And this with Cap 3 being essentially an Avengers film. Iron Man 3 is the only anomaly here. Still to this day I have no clue how that made 1.2b. Who is to say it won't happen with Dr.Strange 3 ? They've build a strong foundation with the first. Now they gotta take their sweet time with it and announce it when it's the best it can be and ready and not a moment before like with the sequels to IM and Thor.

I think the first Iron Man movie was financially the best origin movie.

EDIT: Right. You're talking WW. The overseas BO was really underdeveloped 8 years ago. Amazing how it's grown so quickly.

 

[Typhoon22]

I think the first Iron Man movie was financially the best origin movie.

EDIT: Right. You're talking WW. The overseas BO was really underdeveloped 8 years ago. Amazing how it's grown so quickly.

And it keeps growing and growing.

Another good thing for Strange is the asian markets. I might be wrong in this but ensemble movies aside it did the best there out of all SH films ? Or it's at the very top at least. It did amazing in Asia. And the market there is growing the most. So Strange sequels will benefit even more from that.

 

[InCali]

And it keeps growing and growing.

Another good thing for Strange is the asian markets. I might be wrong in this but ensemble movies aside it did the best there out of all SH films ? Or it's at the very top at least. It did amazing in Asia. And the market there is growing the most. So Strange sequels will benefit even more from that.

Furious 7....BAM!!!

The emergence of WW markets is a great thing IMO. I'm cool with white dudes being heroes, but not exclusively so. I'm really glad we're getting Wonder Woman, Black Panther, Captain Marvel, etc. and think it will only become better.

I just wonder when we'll get the next Machete?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The weekend estimate is $17,676,000.
http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

The domestic total is now $181,542,877, and the international numbers were also updated to $390,000,000. Worldwide total is now $571,542,877.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel716.htm

And Fantastic Beasts' estimate is 75m.

$17.7 million is a really good number all things considered. I expected a 60-65% drop at least, this would be about 59%.

 

[iEquinox]

The estimate was off by only $100,000, Doctor Strange made $17,761,060 in its 3rd weekend.

Let's see if Thanksgiving will help the 4th weekend as much as it did for TDW, which only dropped 22% on it's 4th weekend because of thanksgiving.

If Doctor Strange also drops 22% next weekend it would make 13.85m. It then needs less than 5m on Monday-Thursday to reach 200m after next weekend. It should easily make that much, it should even make 8m+ because it will get a thanksgiving boost on Wednesday and Thursday too. 200m after the 4th weekend should practically be guaranteed now.

TDW managed to make 20m after the 4th weekend, and with Doctor Strange's legs it should be able to beat that.

 

[InCali]

The estimate was off by only $100,000, Doctor Strange made $17,761,060 in its 3rd weekend.

Let's see if Thanksgiving will help the 4th weekend as much as it did for TDW, which only dropped 22% on it's 4th weekend because of thanksgiving.

If Doctor Strange also drops 22% next weekend it would make 13.85m. It then needs less than 5m on Monday-Thursday to reach 200m after next weekend. It should easily make that much, it should even make 8m+ because it will get a thanksgiving boost on Wednesday and Thursday too. 200m after the 4th weekend should practically be guaranteed now.

TDW managed to make 20m after the 4th weekend, and with Doctor Strange's legs it should be able to beat that.

I think it will drop more than that, but still could be getting near 200M at the end of next weekend.

Would not be surprised to see it break 230M fairly easily.