Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[iEquinox]

I think it will drop more than that, but still could be getting near 200M at the end of next weekend.

Would not be surprised to see it break 230M fairly easily.

Even if by some miracle it manages to drop 40% next weekend, it should still have more than 200M at the end of next weekend. I think it's pretty much a given at this point.

I don't think it can go much higher than 230M. TWS made 34.7M after the 4th weekend was over, and I don't see DS beating that number. That means 240M is extremely unlikely. I expect it to end up very close to 230M.

 

[JKKS085]

We will have to see first how it recovers over the week end and then how it will handle the landing of Rogue One (which might impact its late legs quite negatively). To an extent I'm even wondering how it'll fare against Moana even if their targeted demos don't overlap completely. But 230M is pretty much where I think it's gonna end up too. Don't think it can go much higher than that given the circumstances.

 

[marcvader]

And $230 would be outstanding.

 

[JKKS085]

And $230 would be outstanding.

Definitely. That would make it the second highest grossing solo origin movie domestically in the MCU behind Iron Man. And it would be the 5th solo origin movie dom in the genre behind Spider-Man, Iron Man, Man of Steel and The Amazing Spider-Man. It could end up 4th ww if it ends up outgrossing Man of Steel.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Definitely. That would make it the second highest grossing solo origin movie domestically in the MCU behind Iron Man. And it would be the 5th solo origin movie dom in the genre behind Spider-Man, Iron Man, Man of Steel and The Amazing Spider-Man. It could end up 4th ww if it ends up outgrossing Man of Steel.

DS WW will beat MOS WW, 670-675 million will be Mister Doctor's final WW total.

 

[Darepool]

So 700 million is a long shot now? Does another 80 million overseas not seem doable? If we think that 230 will be the domestic number then that is all it would take.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

$650m is more realistic.

 

[marcvader]

But it'll be at or past $600 by Monday and it still has to release in a couple of countries. $650 is a forgone conclusion.

 

[JKKS085]

Wether it ends up over or under 700M it's gonna be really close. I think Blitzkrieg Boy's estimate is still on the conservative side of things but with FB rolling over in China and Japan this Friday, DS is bound to take another hit internationally.
Now Strange is coming off a 26M week end os with a drop following the domestic trend closely (just like next week end but this is likely going to stop with Thanksgiving boosting domestic numbers). If it can make around 50M off a 17.6M we in NA (X2.84) I think it's reasonable to project another 60M os off a 26M we (X2.30), even without Thanksgiving boost. On top of that it still has Japan which should add another 10M. That would put its final numbers around the 690M mark. At this point it just needs to perform a little better than expected to reach 700M. Which I still think isn't impossible.
Now if its keeps crumbling under the weight of new releases or doesn't recover as well as expected domestically it's going to be off the table for sure.

But in any case 675M+ (or around 675M) with a 2.7 multiplier dom, some outstanding performances in os markets, on a 165M budget, for a new property is not only another clear win for Marvel Studios but also bodes well for the future of the franchise. They needed a new hero able to become the new flagship of Marvel Studios in Phase 3 and beyond and it seems that it is exactly what they've got in Strange.

 

[InCali]

Even if by some miracle it manages to drop 40% next weekend, it should still have more than 200M at the end of next weekend. I think it's pretty much a given at this point.

I don't think it can go much higher than 230M. TWS made 34.7M after the 4th weekend was over, and I don't see DS beating that number. That means 240M is extremely unlikely. I expect it to end up very close to 230M.

I think it could possibly drop more than 40%. I think it'll be right around 200M. Right now it's at 181M. I could see it doing about 5-6M over the next 3 days. From there, it's maybe 12-13M short of 200M.

What was the deal with the HUGE Thor 1 number on the Monday after Thanksgiving. Anyone know?

 

[iEquinox]

I think it could possibly drop more than 40%. I think it'll be right around 200M. Right now it's at 181M. I could see it doing about 5-6M over the next 3 days. From there, it's maybe 12-13M short of 200M.

What was the deal with the HUGE Thor 1 number on the Monday after Thanksgiving. Anyone know?

A drop of over 40% on thanksgiving weekend would be insane. It's made 1,964,998 on monday. It's going to make more than 2M on tuesday, wednesday and on friday. Another 7M on Tuesday-Thursday is practically guaranteed. It should easily pass 190M before friday. It should be close to 192M before the weekend. I don't see how a drop of more than 40% is possible, so it should comfortably cross 200M by the end of the weekend. And even if somehow it drops by an astonishing 50% on thanksgiving weekend, it should still have more than 200M by then.

But I don't understand what you mean by the huge Thor 1 number on the monday after thanksgiving? Thor 1 opened in may. And Thor 2 only made 531,000 on the monday after thanksgiving. Am I missing something?

Edit: I guess you mixed up Thor 1 and Thor 2. Thor 1 made a lot on it's 25th day because May 30th 2011 was memorial day. That was definitely not the monday after thanksgiving though

 

[InCali]

A drop of over 40% on thanksgiving weekend would be insane. It's made 1,964,998 on monday. It's going to make more than 2M on tuesday, wednesday and on friday. Another 7M on Tuesday-Thursday is practically guaranteed. It should easily pass 190M before friday. It should be close to 192M before the weekend. I don't see how a drop of more than 40% is possible, so it should comfortably cross 200M by the end of the weekend. And even if somehow it drops by an astonishing 50% on thanksgiving weekend, it should still have more than 200M by then.

But I don't understand what you mean by the huge Thor 1 number on the monday after thanksgiving? Thor 1 opened in may. And Thor 2 only made 531,000 on the monday after thanksgiving. Am I missing something?

Edit: I guess you mixed up Thor 1 and Thor 2. Thor 1 made a lot on it's 25th day because May 30th 2011 was memorial day. Definitely not the monday after thanksgiving though

Thanks. You are correct. I got it mixed up for a minute with Thor 2 which opened at essentially the same time.

EDIT: Was also using Thor 1 weekday numbers instead of Thor 2. I was CONNNNNNNNNNNFUSED.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Wether it ends up over or under 700M it's gonna be really close. I think Blitzkrieg Boy's estimate is still on the conservative side of things but with FB rolling over in China and Japan this Friday, DS is bound to take another hit internationally.
Now Strange is coming off a 26M week end os with a drop following the domestic trend closely (just like next week end but this is likely going to stop with Thanksgiving boosting domestic numbers). If it can make around 50M off a 17.6M we in NA (X2.84) I think it's reasonable to project another 60M os off a 26M we (X2.30), even without Thanksgiving boost. On top of that it still has Japan which should add another 10M. That would put its final numbers around the 690M mark. At this point it just needs to perform a little better than expected to reach 700M. Which I still think isn't impossible.
Now if its keeps crumbling under the weight of new releases or doesn't recover as well as expected domestically it's going to be off the table for sure.

But in any case 675M+ (or around 675M) with a 2.7 multiplier dom, some outstanding performances in os markets, on a 165M budget, for a new property is not only another clear win for Marvel Studios but also bodes well for the future of the franchise. They needed a new hero able to become the new flagship of Marvel Studios in Phase 3 and beyond and it seems that it is exactly what they've got in Strange.

I'm not sure how thanksgiving weekend is going to turn out but assuming a 30% drop from the previous weekend and for the rest around (45-50)% drops over the course of the next few weeks will give us 181.5+(7.5+12)+(3+6)+(2+3)+3+2+1= 221 million.

Mister Doctor's last WW weekend yielded 26 million and for the 4 weekdays before, it raked in around 20 million. Assuming almost uniform (45-50)% drops from here on out we get, 390+23+11+6+3+2+1=436 million.

Argentina and Japan together will give DS 14-15 million (I'm pulling numbers outta thin air here),

Final WW total - 221+436+15=672 million.

 

[JKKS085]

I'm not sure how thanksgiving weekend is going to turn out but assuming a 30% drop from the previous weekend and for the rest around (45-50)% drops over the course of the next few weeks will give us 181.5+(7.5+12)+(3+6)+(2+3)+3+2+1= 221 million.

Mister Doctor's last WW weekend yielded 26 million and for the 4 weekdays before, it raked in around 20 million. Assuming almost uniform (45-50)% drops from here on out we get, 390+23+11+6+3+2+1=436 million.

Argentina and Japan together will give DS 14-15 million (I'm pulling numbers outta thin air here),

Final WW total - 221+436+15=672 million.

If it drops that much over Thanksgiving 700M will be out of reach.
But I don't think it'll start dropping harder than TTDW all of a sudden.

However that's a detail and I think the most likely range for DS right now is 680/690 which clearly isn't far off your own estimate. It took a much bigger hit against FB (especially internationally) than I anticipated. But I still have my fingers crossed for 700M if it manages somehow great late legs despite the competition.

 

[iEquinox]

If it drops that much over Thanksgiving 700M will be out of reach.
But I don't think it'll start dropping harder than TTDW all of a sudden.

However that's a detail and I think the most likely range for DS right now is 680/690 which clearly isn't far off your own estimate. It took a much bigger hit against FB (especially internationally) than I anticipated. But I still have my fingers crossed for 700M if it manages somehow great late legs despite the competition.

Doctor Strange has lost more theaters before thanksgiving weekend than TDW did, it will have 3008 theaters left on Wednesday (TDW still had 3286):
http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217480830-Theater-Counts-Moana-Launches-in-3-875-Locations

So it's possible for it to drop more than TDW did(-22%). I think it should be pretty close. Doctor Strange has Moana to compete with, but TDW had Frozen to compete with; Frozen opened on Thanksgiving in 2013. So the effect of Moana should be cancelled out by Frozen in this comparison.

I definitely don't expect it to fall as much as 30%. I think it will be somewhere between 20-25%. Spectre (4th weekend thanksgiving) and Skyfall (3rd weekend thanksgiving) even managed to only drop by 14% on thanksgiving weekend, but I don't think Doctor Strange will drop that little.

As for 700M WW, we'll have to see how well it can hold on next week. Fantastic Beasts is doing better overseas than domestically, so that could really hurt it's chances of reaching 700M. It should get close, it's on course for 690M right now, but if it does well in Japan and has slightly better legs it could make it to 700M. It's not looking as likely as before anymore though. It's much harder to predict overseas box office because there are so many different markets and release dates to think of.

Either way Marvel have probably already made enough to break even, and they will be very happy because Doctor Strange is already a big financial success.

 

[Wildcard]

But it'll be at or past $600 by Monday and it still has to release in a couple of countries. $650 is a forgone conclusion.

Precisely why I don't see why some are questioning if it can hit $700 million. There's pretty much no doubt that it will.

 

[InCali]

Doctor Strange has lost more theaters before thanksgiving weekend than TDW did, it will have 3008 theaters left on Wednesday (TDW still had 3286):
http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217480830-Theater-Counts-Moana-Launches-in-3-875-Locations

So it's possible for it to drop more than TDW did(-22%). I think it should be pretty close. Doctor Strange has Moana to compete with, but TDW had Frozen to compete with; Frozen opened on Thanksgiving in 2013. So the effect of Moana should be cancelled out by Frozen in this comparison.

I definitely don't expect it to fall as much as 30%. I think it will be somewhere between 20-25%. Spectre (4th weekend thanksgiving) and Skyfall (3rd weekend thanksgiving) even managed to only drop by 14% on thanksgiving weekend, but I don't think Doctor Strange will drop that little.

As for 700M WW, we'll have to see how well it can hold on next week. Fantastic Beasts is doing better overseas than domestically, so that could really hurt it's chances of reaching 700M. It should get close, it's on course for 690M right now, but if it does well in Japan and has slightly better legs it could make it to 700M. It's not looking as likely as before anymore though. It's much harder to predict overseas box office because there are so many different markets and release dates to think of.

Either way Marvel have probably already made enough to break even, and they will be very happy because Doctor Strange is already a big financial success.

They've already made MORE than enough to have broken even.....well more than enough. The budget was announced at 165M and Disney pays themselves for a lot of those "costs". Right now they are at just under 600M WW. That's WAY better than breaking even.

 

[Wildcard]

Right now, everyone at Disney/Marvel have the OJ's on repeat.

 

[iEquinox]

They've already made MORE than enough to have broken even.....well more than enough. The budget was announced at 165M and Disney pays themselves for a lot of those "costs". Right now they are at just under 600M WW. That's WAY better than breaking even.

The expenses don't stop at 165M though. That doesn't include the marketing budget.

Usually the studio gets about 50% of domestic gross, 40% of overseas gross and 25% of China gross.

So that gives:
0.5*183.6 = 91.8M
0.4*288 = 115.2M
0.25 * 102 = 25.5M
Total income is about 232.5M. Let's say the advertising budget was about a third of the production budget, that would mean the total expenses are about 220M.

I think has broken even, but I don't think it's by that much just yet. They will make more from theaters and then more from the home market sales. The studios get to keep a much bigger share of the money made from the DVD/Blu-Ray sales than from theater gross.

It has already made more domestically than it cost to make, while it will hit $200 million this weekend, thanks in part to Thanksgiving. Unless the film cost more to advertise than to make, which is nearly impossible, it has already made enough worldwide to break even.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217...st-Cant-Lift-Box-Office-Earning-74-40-million

 

[InCali]

The expenses don't stop at 165M though. That doesn't include the marketing budget.

Usually the studio gets about 50% of domestic gross, 40% of overseas gross and 25% of China gross.

So that gives:
0.5*183.6 = 91.8M
0.4*288 = 115.2M
0.25 * 102 = 25.5M
Total income is about 232.5M. Let's say the advertising budget was about half of the production budget, that would mean the total expenses are about 247M.

I think has broken even, but I don't think it's by that much just yet. They will make more from theaters and then more from the home market sales. The studios get to keep a much bigger share of the money made from the DVD/Blu-Ray sales than from theater gross.


http://www.the-numbers.com/news/217...st-Cant-Lift-Box-Office-Earning-74-40-million

Im certainly no expert, but I've heard other profit margin scenarios that are more charitable. In any case, if Disney is paying themselves for expenses (which we know is the case), it's not the same as farming out production costs to another company. Paying a subsidiary within your own company 50M, for example, would be both an expense and income with the true expense being the expense incurred by the subsidiary.

Using your assumptions, Ant-Man barely broke even at the box office. That may be true. As I said, I'm no expert and know there are other revenue streams than the box office receipts.

 

[iEquinox]

Im certainly no expert, but I've heard other profit margin scenarios that are more charitable. In any case, if Disney is paying themselves for expenses (which we know is the case), it's not the same as farming out production costs to another company. Paying a subsidiary within your own company 50M, for example, would be both an expense and income with the true expense being the expense incurred by the subsidiary.

Using your assumptions, Ant-Man barely broke even at the box office. That may be true. As I said, I'm no expert and know there are other revenue streams than the box office receipts.

Yeah, Disney is a huge company with many subsidiaries, and as you say, some of their expenses can be a bit less than they appear because of that.

But yeah, it seems Ant-Man did indeed not make a huge profit from box office alone:

If the film didn't make another dollar at the box office, it would still likely break even sometime during its home market run. Fortunately for the studio, the film has yet to open in a number of markets, including the three biggest in Asia: Japan, South Korea, and China.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/207030830-International-Box-Office-Rogue-Nation-Goes-International

Ant-Man made a triumphant return to the international chart with a first place, $43.5 million run in 3 markets for totals of $275.9 million internationally and $454.7 million worldwide. Nearly all of this weekend haul came from China, where the film opened in first place with $42.77 million. (Some are reporting it came in second place to Goodbye Mr. Loser, but they are comparing the film's weekly total to Ant-Man's opening weekend.) Depending on how much money the film cost to advertise worldwide, it might have broken even already. If not, it will get there very early in its home market run.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/208920830-International-Box-Office-Ant-Man-is-Big-Man-in-China

However, barely breaking even is really not a bad thing at all. Many people seem to think a movie has to make a sizable profit from the theatrical release alone to be considered a real success, but that is simply not true, or the same people in the business who said it barely broke even wouldn't be saying things like this:

[Ant-Man] hit $500 million on Wednesday, which is a huge reason for Disney / Marvel to celebrate.

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/209060830-International-Box-Office-Martian-Completes-Another-Orbit

If a movie manages to break even in during its theatrical run, that's usually enough to consider it a pretty nice financial success. It's much better than it sounds.

Doctor Strange should be one of the movies that's lucky enough to make a nice profit from the theatrical run alone, so it's a huge financial success.

 

[Adder]

This is doing so much better than i expected.

 

[JKKS085]

If a movie manages to break even in during its theatrical run, that's usually enough to consider it a pretty nice financial success. It's much better than it sounds.

Doctor Strange should be one of the movies that's lucky enough to make a nice profit from the theatrical run alone, so it's a huge financial success.

Per Deadline Ant-Man cost 240M to produce and release and generated 213M from its theater run meaning that it actually did not break even in theaters.
However once you factor in revenues from ancillary markets (HV, PPV, VOD, Pay TV) the film turned a very decent 100M+ net profit from Marvel which is not far from their 130M initial investment (and that is 2015 revenues only).

If Strange makes 690M WW (230 dom/ 360 os/100 cn), MS gets 290M (126 dom/144 os/20 cn). They spent 165M to produce DS and if past trends are to be trusted, their releasing costs ww should be around 135M. The total amount they spent to produce and release DS is actually about 300M. So the best case scenario has Strange just barely breaking even in theaters (or falling a little short of breaking even).

To put things in perspective and take the example of another origin movie that ended up roughly in the same ballpark BO wise, WB spent a whooping 407.3M to produce and release Man Of Steel. WB made 287.76M from its theater run so they virtually lost about 120M but once you factor in ancillaries, they actually turned a small profit of 42.7M.

Once again theaters isn't where studios make the bulk of their money. It doesn't mean that it isn't important and Marvel Studios outings constantly coming close to break even in theaters (or making a profit off of their theatrical runs) and then turning significant profits once revenues from ancillary markets are included definitely improves their bottom line and the financial strength of a studio that was once forced to apply for loans to make their movies. It's definitely one of the reasons why we will see a sequel to Ant-Man before we get a (true) sequel to Man of Steel but theaters isn't were most of the battle is fought.

 

[iEquinox]

I guess this is the article you're referring to:
http://deadline.com/2016/03/ant-man-profit-box-office-2015-marvel-paul-rudd-1201723544/

Looks like according to them, the studio gets about 51% domestic, 40% overseas and 25% china, just like I said in my earlier post.

Lots of people seem to think that if a movie doesn't break even in theaters, it's not very successful. But that is simply not true. This shows that if a big-budget movie manages to barely break even in theaters, it's actually a huge financial success.

 

[BoredGuy]

Man, those China returns are atrocious
I get it's a rising market, but why bother trying so hard to court them when you get s*** back on your investment.... the movies that do poorly domestic but well overseas really aren't doing that well overall, shows domestic is still very important... USA! USA!

lol