Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/doctor-strange-trolls-hacksaw-ridge-weekend-box-office-1201848529/

"2ND UPDATE, 11:54 AM: Doctor Strange is on his way to an estimated $28.3 million-$29 million opening day (including $9.4M previews) and a weekend of low- to mid-$70Ms according to industry sources. That’s what it looks like coming off matinees, and if these figures don’t ease down to below $70M, it will give the Burbank, CA-based studio its second-highest November debut after Marvel’s Thor: The Dark World ($31.89M Friday, $85.7M opening)."

 

[kedrell]

^Hmm, so DS beats the Thursady night previews of Thor2 by $2 million and yet it's ultimate Friday total(which those previews are counted towards) is aiming for $2-3m below what Thor2 did on Friday? Something doesn't compute here. That's a super fast reversal of $4-5m in 1 day. Of course Deadline is not really the most reliable of sources. They like to get updates out fast rather than hanging back to get a more accurate picture. I will say I'll be surprised if this doesn't beat Thor2's OW.

 

[fancyarcher]

Hmm, so DS beats the Thursady night previews of Thor2 by $2 million and yet it's ultimate Friday total(which those previews are counted towards) is aiming for $2-3m below what Thor2 did on Friday? Something doesn't compute here.

Deadline being deadline. Numbers are released too early, and their numbers seem to be based more off industry projections then anything.

We got several hours to go. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the numbers change and are quite different a few hours from now.

 

[kedrell]

Agreed. They're always too eager to get the scoop ahead of everyone else.

 

[fancyarcher]

Agreed. They're always too eager to get the scoop ahead of everyone else.

I distinctly remember when they were predicting Inside Out to make 60m, before it blew-up and made 90m instead.

I wouldn't put much stock into what Deadline says at least right now anyway. I actually think Doctor Strange go up. On the east coast, they've barely started the matinees and late shows.

 

[kedrell]

IM2 only made $7.5m on it's Thursday previews and ended up with a $128m OW. I'm not expecting that but it was a non-summer release as well so lots can still happen.

 

[fancyarcher]

I don't expect Doctor Strange to make that much, but I do think that Deadline is probably low-balling it a bit. Of course will see!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

^Hmm, so DS beats the Thursady night previews of Thor2 by $2 million and yet it's ultimate Friday total(which those previews are counted towards) is aiming for $2-3m below what Thor2 did on Friday? Something doesn't compute here. That's a super fast reversal of $4-5m in 1 day. Of course Deadline is not really the most reliable of sources. They like to get updates out fast rather than hanging back to get a more accurate picture. I will say I'll be surprised if this doesn't beat Thor2's OW.

I want to say this hasn't been uncommon recently. Bigger Thursday night's leading into softer weekends. How people go to the theater seems to be changing.

 

[kedrell]

Maybe. Only time will tell for sure.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yep. After seeing it, I hope Deadline is lowballing and it comes in higher.

 

[kedrell]

I'm confident they are.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This will have a huge 3D share and will get a boost from the West Coast.

I'd be surprised if this fell short of 80 m OW.

 

[Iceman]

The midnights aren't the best indicator. Look forward to seeing what this does over the weekend.

 

[OB12]

My IMAX 3D showing was almost completely full and everyone seemed to love it. One factor that could play into this film's favor is the fact that this is the last weekend before the election. I know I was really looking forward to escaping the constant deluge of political news for a few hours.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm going to say 85M or better. I think this is going to have very strong WOM. Now there's a lot of competition coming out in the coming weeks, but I think this will have a strong run at the Box office.

 

[JKKS085]

RTH on BOT says 29/31M Friday.
I do not know when midnight showings started for DS especially compared to TDW, but in a market that has been starving for blockbusters, and generally given how cbm performed this year it's poised to be more frontloaded. Still think 80M or close is in the cards (especially if Friday lands closer to 31M than 29) which would be a very good result.

 

[Incarnadine]

Rth just updated, DS is now 32-34m Friday. 85m looks really good now with a shot at 90m.

 

[spiderman2]

About deadline and over all box office predections I think it is just getting hard and harder to predect. Last year I think deadline had JW going into the night it was going to come out predicting it would make like 130 million only for it to make like 208 or something. While we knew star wars would be big no one had it making 250 or what ever it made million. I think deadline started before any numbers came in at it only doing like 190-200 million. I don't think any one thought the last fast movie was going to do even close to what it did. This year batman vs superman did a lot worse then people thought it would. Dead pool a lot of people thought if it did 500 million WW that would be amazing only for it to go on to make like 740 million or so.

 

[spiderman2]

Any way I am going to see this movie tonight in about a hour and 20 minutes from now.

 

[Silver Surfer]

3rd Update, Friday 9:06PM: Doctor Strange is casting a spell over the masses who are now shelling out an estimated $82M this weekend to check out Marvel’s medic at 3,882 theaters with today alone grossing in $32M range.

Doctor Strange isn’t crushing DreamWorks Animation’s family offering Trolls which is looking at an opening day of an estimated $12M with a FSS of $42.4M, an opening that’s above the studio’s Bee Movie ($38M) yet below Megamind ($46M) opening.

In third, it’s Lionsgate/Summit’s Hacksaw Ridge with an estimated $14.7M, after a $5.1M Friday.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Rth just updated, DS is now 32-34m Friday. 85m looks really good now with a shot at 90m.

I had a feeling it would slowly rise. t:

 

[Raiden]

I had a feeling it would slowly rise. t:

I think the 90% RT score and the fact that it's a Marvel movie will probably convince many undecided moviegoers to check DS out. And judging from the reactions, I expect this movie to have great legs from WOM.

 

[InCali]

I think the 90% RT score and the fact that it's a Marvel movie will probably convince many undecided moviegoers to check DS out. And judging from the reactions, I expect this movie to have great legs from WOM.

Agreed.

Next weekend is a holiday weekend so I expect it to hold up really well. After that.....well, we've got another wizardy kind of movie and I think the hit is going to be pretty substantial. Given the competition and time of year, I think it will be somewhere between 200-250M DOM (hopefully on the higher side, but I'm not counting on it). I still think my prediction of over 700M WW is about right. I could see fairly high 600s though. Those are very good numbers. Anything over 600, for that matter, is really good.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/doctor-strange-trolls-hacksaw-ridge-weekend-box-office-1201848529/

"Write-thru Sat. 7:47 AM after 3rd Update, Friday 9:06PM: Doctor Strange is casting a spell over the masses who are now shelling out an estimated $81M to $83M+ to check out Marvel’s medic at 3,882 theaters grossing roughly $32.6M last night alone. We have to see the Saturday uptick. TBD. In regards to its opening day, Doctor Strange whips Marvel’s previous November live action title Thor: The Dark World ($31.89M Friday), however, as of right now it’s behind the hammer-holder’s $85.7M FSS. That said, Doctor Strange‘s A CinemaScore is quite promising (in fact, 75% of the audience gave it an A), so its ticket sales are bound to get higher."

https://***********/ChinaBoxOffice/status/794906381291782144/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

"China Box Office
‏@ChinaBoxOffice
DOCTOR STRANGE earned est. ¥121 ($17.9M) on Saturday, +49% opening day = largest Sat bump for superhero this year. 2-day is ¥206 ($30.5M)"

 

[Ozbridge]

"Write-thru Sat. 7:47 AM after 3rd Update, Friday 9:06PM: Doctor Strange is casting a spell over the masses who are now shelling out an estimated $81M to $83M+ to check out Marvel’s medic at 3,882 theaters grossing roughly $32.6M last night alone.

Wut? 32.6M is from Friday night alone? So add in Thursday preview it will be 42M opening day?