Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Adder]

I'm glad to hear DS is doing well. Also, MAGA. t:

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Yea, wonder what'll happen to Captain America when there's no more America??

You know what would be really useful right now? The Eye of Agamotto aka the time gem.

 

[Stark Bauer]

DS seems to be on pace with Ant Man's daily box office...I'm just hoping it can break the $200 million mark by the end of its run.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

DS seems to be on pace with Ant Man's daily box office...I'm just hoping it can break the $200 million mark by the end of its run.

DS will eventually cross the 200 million mark and then go on to make around 15 million more. It's looking good so far.

 

[marcvader]

It'll definitely pass $200mil domestic. It's already at around $106-107.

 

[JC00]

Never thought Tuesday was gonna be affected because a lot of schools were going to be closed for the election.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

Meanwhile, Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange, which is expected to reign atop the box office in its second weekend with $40M-$42M, made $6.2M for a week’s cume of $110.1M.

 

[marcvader]

Well there you go, much more than I thought.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Well there you go, much more than I thought.

Actually it's not unusual. Due to this Friday being the Veteran's day, Thursday was always gonna see a good increase in numbers from the day before and Friday will also see a slight bump against early projections.

 

[iEquinox]

DS seems to be on pace with Ant Man's daily box office...I'm just hoping it can break the $200 million mark by the end of its run.

You can't compare DS to Ant-Man like that. Ant-Man was released in mid July, so it earned a lot more of it's BO on weekdays. If the earth doesn't blow up in the next month or two, it will definitely break 200M.

 

[InCali]

Half a year ago I expected it to do about 600M. I though it would be easier to sell than Ant-Man, and the spectacle would also attract crowds in Asia. When the reviews started coming in at 90%, I raised my expectations to 700M because it was bound to have good legs and WOM.


I think your expectations should change if initial numbers exceed your expectations. It would be weird if they didn't. With the knowledge that a movie opened to 85M, it really would be disappointing if it ended up with say 170M. If opening numbers exceed your expectations, it is only natural to raise your expectations of the total accordingly.

Of course that does not take away from the fact that 550M would still be a good BO result. However a good BO result does not mean it can't be a disappointment. With the knowledge we have now, I think most people would be disappointed if it only got to 550M, even if they know it's still a good result.

I was mainly referring to people's "disappointment" with BO results, but didn't make that clear. So, what I'm saying is that even if my expectations change, which you rightly point out that they will or should, it doesn't mean you should be disappointed with how a movie ends up performing.

If you were expecting DS to come in at 600M+ and then you see that it'll probably come in at 700+ plus, but it comes in at 680M, there's no need to be disappointed with that. That's a good showing.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

With a bulk of kids off from Kindergarten to college today, I hear Friday will be quite front-loaded at the box office. As such Doctor Strange and Trolls aren’t that far apart for the day with the Marvel Disney movie at $12.5M and the DreamWorks Animation hairy guys at $12M. Some believe that the weekend is too close to call for No. 1 at this point, but others see Doctor Strange at $35M at 3,882 theaters and Trolls holding fantastically at $32M in 4,066, -31% from its opening. By Sunday this means that Doctor Strange will be at $145M, in sync with the 10-day take of 2013’s Thor: The Dark World (final domestic $206.4M) with Trolls just under $90M, 9% ahead of Fox’s The Peanuts Movie.

 

[iEquinox]

Doctor Strange made $5,993,999 on Thursday. +18% from wednesday with the help of Veteran's day.

Looks like boxofficemojo is making some really bad comparisons:

After an $85 million opening last weekend, Disney and Marvel's Doctor Strange should be looking at a second weekend drop right around 53% or so. For comparison, 2013's Thor: The Dark World opened just over $85 million and dipped 57.3% in its second weekend. Fellow Marvel single-character introductions such as Ant-Man dipped 56.5%, Thor dropped 47.2% in summer 2011 and Captain America: The First Avenger dropped 60.7% in June 2011.

One factor that could work into Doctor Strange's favor this weekend, as well as for many films on the board this weekend, is what appears to be a sizable chunk of the weekly box office that was affected by the 2016 Election, most prominently on Monday. Simply put, Thor: The Dark World dropped 52% from Sunday to Monday while Doctor Strange dropped 71%, the second largest Sunday-to-first-Monday drop for a Marvel single-character intro. While Strange bounced back on Tuesday and Dark World continued to slide there's reason to expect that drop could mean the difference between Strange pulling in a second weekend just over $40 million rather than just below.

They're drawing conclusions by taking numbers completely out of context. As if TDW's low Monday drop had nothing to do with Monday being a holiday, basically it was part of the weekend. And then they even go on to say it's "the second largest Sunday-to-first-Monday drop for a Marvel single-character intro". As if that means something. Three out of 6 of those "Marvel single-character intro" movies were released during the summer holidays, where the Monday drop is always going to be lower because almost everyone is free from school or work. There are only three "Marvel single-character intro" movies that weren't released in the summer holiday. So Doctor Strange has both "the second largest Sunday-to-first-Monday drop" as well as the second smallest Sunday-to-first-Monday drop out of those 3 movies. Which is actually quite impressive with the election coming up.

And then they say "Strange bounced back on Tuesday and Dark World continued to slide". Well of course TDW continued to slide... Monday was a holiday for TDW, it would always drop on Tuesday.

You'd think they would put a little more thought into their predictions

If you were expecting DS to come in at 600M+ and then you see that it'll probably come in at 700+ plus, but it comes in at 680M, there's no need to be disappointed with that. That's a good showing.

True. But if it ends up at 680M, I would still be just a little bit disappointed, because it would come up just a little bit short expectations I have at this point. Even if it's a great result, and I would actually be happy with it. A happy disappointment, it's a weird thing. But at this point it seems like we pretty much agree. Not much more to say

 

[Tony Stark]

I think Dr. Strange is going to perform better than expected. I saw the Arrival last night, and it's a very, very good film, but it's not going to have a wide appeal. Very much a thinking person's sci-fi film, some will consider it "boring", I would disagree, but I just know there are some that would use that term.. Dr. Strange has a much wider appeal to a wider audience, and is more of a visual thrill ride.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

Doctor Strange and Trolls have widened the space between them, with the Disney/Marvel title’s second sesh projected between $36M-$40M at 3,882 venues, and DreamWorks Animation’s hairy guys at $33M in 4,066. By Sunday, Doctor Strange could be as high as $150M, $5M more than the 10-day running cume of 2013’s Thor: The Dark World (final domestic $206.4M) with Trolls just under $92M, 12% ahead of Fox’s The Peanuts Movie last year.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2016/11/arrival-doctor-strange-almost-christmas-weekend-box-office-1201852814/

Based on late night estimates, Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange is now looking at a $14.9M Friday, and a 3-day between $38.6M-$41.3M. At the high end, its cume by Sunday could be at $151.3M. If those figures remain on track, Doctor Strange will best the $36.6M second weekend of Thor: The Dark World, Marvel’s previous fall live-action supehero title, by 13%. On a running cume basis by Sunday, Doctor Strange will be pacing ahead of Asgard’s hammer man by an extra $5M.

 

[Iceman]

That would be a very good 2nd weekend. This film definitely deserves to be ahead of TDW.

 

[NotNickFury]

That would be a very good 2nd weekend. This film definitely deserves to be ahead of TDW.

Every movie in the MCU deserves to be ahead of The Dark World.

 

[marcvader]

My 2D showing at 9 last night was about 90% full. Lots of kids too which we're extremely annoying.

 

[metaphysician]

Every movie in the MCU deserves to be ahead of The Dark World.

Incredible Hulk doesn't.

( Thankfully, its not *eg* )

 

[NotNickFury]

Incredible Hulk doesn't.

( Thankfully, its not *eg* )

Meh. I still enjoy The Incredible Hulk. It's not the most memorable of the MCU films, but I liked Edward Norton in the role and remember more from that than I do The Dark World, but that's another topic.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://***********/GiteshPandya/status/797462720035622912?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Gitesh Pandya
@GiteshPandya

#DoctorStrange holds #1 spot w/ $14.9M on #VeteransDay FRI going to about $40M in 2nd wknd pushing cume to amazing $150M. Ahead of Thor2.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

40 million+ 2nd weekend is definitely on the cards right now.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Meh. I still enjoy The Incredible Hulk. It's not the most memorable of the MCU films, but I liked Edward Norton in the role and remember more from that than I do The Dark World, but that's another topic.

Agreed. I don't hold TIH in ill regard at all. I re-visited the movie recently and was pleasantly surprised.

 

[Iceman]

40 million+ 2nd weekend is definitely on the cards right now.

Yep, looking like a good chance of that.