Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[InCali]

4 weekends. Opening weekend, fourth weekend, Labor Day weekend, and post-Labor Day weekend.

Fear Flipper next weekend. I was down in Westwood Village this morning (near UCLA) and they were breaking out the red carpet paraphernalia for Flipper 2 (or 3 or 4 or 5 or something). My first reaction was to try to see if I could get a job trying to put up a fence or unload some boxes or something, but i had to be at a meeting in about 15 minutes so I didn't think they'd bite on a 10 minute gig. Fortunately, I called in a favor at In-N-Out Burger (even though it wasn't open) so I got a good, wholesome (animal style) breakfast.

So I hear they're talking about 10M this weekend. Low drops next weekend, but when Maze Runner comes out, bigger drop??? What's the latest on the total, end of run box office (DOM)? It should be easier to figure out now.

When GotG comes out on blu ray, I'm going to have a BBQ party with a movie in the background. Ultimately, I want to set up a semi-outdoor HT for evening use. How much fun is it to have a party in your house and a movie going on in your backyard (rhetorical question).

 

[Mysteryman]

Its Dolphins Tale 2.

 

[InCali]

Its Dolphins Tale 2.

I know. "Flipper" was an admittedly feeble attempt at humour. Luke Halpin and, then, Tommy Norden were in "Flipper". Dolphins (sic) Tail 5 (oops) will finally be the #1 movie on the weekend of the 12th unless the gods decree otherwise.

 

[Mysteryman]

Isn't No Good Deed also coming out on the 12th?

 

[kedrell]

It looks like it is going to be a close one for that $10m estimate this weekend. BOM is guessing $9.8m. As long as it exceeded $4m today then MoS went down. By tomorrow Sixth Sense will have bit the dust as well.

 

[Mysteryman]

If No Good Deed is coming out on the 12th.
then, I think it might be a possible contender for number one .

 

[LucDisfilm19]

We'll, the box office results for Guardians are in. And, Guardians won 1st place again with $10.2M and it's global total is now $1M ahead of Iron Man 1's global total with $586.2M for GOTG compared to Iron Man's $585.2M.

 

[InCali]

Isn't No Good Deed also coming out on the 12th?

You are 100% correct. It's showing in 2,000 theaters (which seems sort of low considering the competition, but I don't know how they figure that kind of thing out). It hasn't been hyped much from what I can tell, but, since I have to work the next couple of weekends, I can get some time off the next few Fridays and will probably see it. For sure Maze Runner is a first day see. Since I like Denzel, ditto for Equalizer. What I'm really looking forward to is Hunger Games and The Hobbit. As far as Hunger Games goes, I feel really bad about Philip Seymour Hoffman. What a shame and what a terrific talent. I think the first movie I saw him in was "State and Main" by David Mamet and was completely sold on him (and Rebecca Pidgeon). Not to wax too much, but it's really a tragedy when we lose anyone who hasn't really lived a long, full life with all its twists and turns (both good and bad). I think it's fair to say we'll miss him in more ways than we'll ever have a chance to know.

 

[InCali]

We'll, the box office results for Guardians are in. And, Guardians won 1st place again with $10.2M and it's global total is now $1M ahead of Iron Man 1's global total with $586.2M for GOTG compared to Iron Man's $585.2M.

Without me, it only would have been $10,159,962 (estimate $10.16M on BOM)

 

[Incarnadine]

It looks like 700m WW is the basement and 800m is the potential ceiling. Almost 600m now, still another 25-30m left domestic and at least that much left in overseas holdovers which should take it over $650m. It all comes down to Japan, China and Italy to see where it ends up. China will be the real wildcard, it could do anywhere from $30m to over $100m there.

 

[Iceman]

Looking forward to GOTG 2 now! Definitely wasn't confident that this would be seeing a sequel before the results started rolling in.

 

[Gr0oT]

I remember when this was first anounced thinking to myself oh awesome we will have a GotG movie! What the hell this is great! And then automatically assuming this would be the first MCU movie that would have to be one and done. HAH!

 

[8ulk]

^ I remember when GoTG was anounced how much i laughed at people who thought this movie was a risk. Well i still do.

Glad we now know DOM 320 mil is a LOCK.
OS still the same story. anywhere from 400 to 450 mil.

P.S. Just saw the movie. ITS FRICKIN AWESOME. "If you dont like it you re probably dead inside , or a girl" (not my line)

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Is say Guardians will end its global total with $800M with $324.5M domestically and $475.5M overseas, if China and Japan help it do big in those two countries.

 

[Gr0oT]

I don't see how it was reasonable to laugh at people who thought this might be a risk, hindsight bias must account for some of that.

If we hadn't gotten Gunn, who knows?

 

[Nokio]

GOTG is still going strong. Good to see. I wanna see it again, just been hard for me to get to the movies. Want to see it in Imax.

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't see how it was reasonable to laugh at people who thought this might be a risk, hindsight bias must account for some of that.

If we hadn't gotten Gunn, who knows?

Yeah, I've been eagerly anticipating this movie since day 1 but you're kidding yourself if at no point you regarded this property as a risk.
That begin said, they pulled it off beautifully and they are getting everything they deserve.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

When does this open in China? And where else has it not opened?

 

[Mysteryman]

You are 100% correct. It's showing in 2,000 theaters (which seems sort of low considering the competition, but I don't know how they figure that kind of thing out). It hasn't been hyped much from what I can tell, but, since I have to work the next couple of weekends, I can get some time off the next few Fridays and will probably see it. For sure Maze Runner is a first day see. Since I like Denzel, ditto for Equalizer. What I'm really looking forward to is Hunger Games and The Hobbit. As far as Hunger Games goes, I feel really bad about Philip Seymour Hoffman. What a shame and what a terrific talent. I think the first movie I saw him in was "State and Main" by David Mamet and was completely sold on him (and Rebecca Pidgeon). Not to wax too much, but it's really a tragedy when we lose anyone who hasn't really lived a long, full life with all its twists and turns (both good and bad). I think it's fair to say we'll miss him in more ways than we'll ever have a chance to know.

Thanks for answering.
I wasn't sure.
Yeah, I feel really bad about Hoffman too.
The tough HG film will be Mockingjay Part Two.
The remaining part of Hoffman's performance will be completed using CGI effects .
It will be hard to watch.
But Phillip Seymour Hoffman was a magnificent actor who deserves these extraordinary measures being used to complete his final performance.

 

[Vincanws]

I don't see how it was reasonable to laugh at people who thought this might be a risk, hindsight bias must account for some of that.

If we hadn't gotten Gunn, who knows?

In Feige's own words, every one is a risk...

 

[InCali]

In Feige's own words, every one is a risk...

Yeah. Like "The Avengers".

When I saw the MCU after credit trailers (or whatever they're called) talking about getting a "team" together and talking about The Avengers, I would have bought multiple tickets right then and there if they would have let me.

 

[Iceman]

I remember when this was first anounced thinking to myself oh awesome we will have a GotG movie! What the hell this is great! And then automatically assuming this would be the first MCU movie that would have to be one and done. HAH!

I can't believe it's beating out all the established properties domestically. Amazing result.

^ I remember when GoTG was anounced how much i laughed at people who thought this movie was a risk. Well i still do.

Glad we now know DOM 320 mil is a LOCK.
OS still the same story. anywhere from 400 to 450 mil.

P.S. Just saw the movie. ITS FRICKIN AWESOME. "If you dont like it you re probably dead inside , or a girl" (not my line)

Even with the knowledge of how this film has done, if I went back to before it was made I'd say it (and any similar future project) was a risk. The execution of this concept has been great and that has led to massive success but any of a number of different paths and choices along the way by inferior creators and this could have bombed out of sight. Unlike say Avengers 2 which is going to make a good profit even if they put out a 2 minute video of Whedon taking a dump.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A Marvel Raccoon beats Superman at the boxoffice, never in a million years would I have....

 

[Iceman]

A Marvel Raccoon beats Superman at the boxoffice, never in a million years would I have....

Any raccoon would have surprised me to be fair.

 

[Vincanws]

Yeah. Like "The Avengers".

When I saw the MCU after credit trailers (or whatever they're called) talking about getting a "team" together and talking about The Avengers, I would have bought multiple tickets right then and there if they would have let me.

And yet when you're talking about spending that much money on a movie you can't treat these things as anything but a risk, or else you risk complacency. That's how I interpret what Feige said as much as whether anyone goes to see it. This especially applied to something like Guardians.