The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

# of days until the 1 billion mark:

Jurassic World: 13 days with China
The Force Awakens: 12 days without China

Pretty good.

And a couple of those days without the US/Canada BO (where it's clearly strongest). Don't know if JW opened overseas before its US/Canada opening, but if it didn't, that makes those numbers even crazier.

 

[JaD]

When it opens in China will those #'s be added to opening day/week international totals?

 

[InCali]

When it opens in China will those #'s be added to opening day/week international totals?

No.

It would be interesting, however, to add daily totals for all countries from opening day in a WW statistic.

 

[Tony Stark]

I hate to make any definitive statements, but I would think that these records will last for some time. Having said that, it's only been 6 months since the previous record was broken and only 3 years from the one before that.

I will say though that while I think all of the Star Wars Sequel trilogy films will be big hits, I don't see the other two beating this one. This was just a monumental accomplishment especially for December. I mean after next weekend this thing will likely be above Jurrasic World for the biggest picture of 2015! After two freaking weeks. I know this is Star Wars, and all, but it's just mind boggling.

 

[spiderman2]

Sayin' it now. TFA will be pushing 1B by the end of MLK weekend (a holiday weekend which will help BO numbers) and will be there by the end of the 5th week (Jan. 21st).

That's an aggressive prediction, but definitely possible.

I said it sounded crazy when I wrote it, but I really felt that TFA would be on track for 400M after last Thursday and 550M after the weekend. I can see close to 200M over the next 7 days. That puts it right on Avatar's heels as of the weekend ending January 3.

Does anyone still think 1B isn't happening? It's going to have very, very good holds for the next 3 weekends and I think this can play well into March with decent numbers.

I think in less next week is a big drop that then 1 billion USA is in the books.

That will be difficult, but possible. I think it'll be north of 90M.

It will do 99.9M lol.

 

[Tymminator]

I think Dec 31st will be a down night due to people not wanting to spend New Years at a theater

Yeah, but that's a Thursday, I imagine that Friday, Saturday and Sunday could see a bump.

 

[spiderman2]

The gap between Avatar and TFA is growing each day -- TFA has $300M more than Avatar has at its current pace. I'm thinking TFA hits $600M domestic by New Year's Eve and hit $700M by that Monday.

I would say $900M is the ceiling for this. Still skeptical about TFA hitting $1B domestic until it materializes.

The movie is at what 544 right now? If it makes 20 million monday- thursday that would 80 to get it up to 624. Then i could see it maybe doing 100m for that weekend to get it up to 724 come that monday. That may be low ball to. I dont know i think may 750 by thaat monday but we will see.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm pretty sure a year ago there were some people who had Age of Ultron winning the 2015 Box Office title and TFA has made almost 100 million dollars more in 10 days than its entire domestic box office run.

 

[spiderman2]

I've been meaning to ask this for a while and since I and everyone is watching this movie destroy the box office I'll ask in here.

How and why do weekend estimates come out at the beginning of Sunday? Sunday is the weekend too, right? Don't they need to wait until EOD Sunday to get the estimates for what was sold on Sunday? I never got why these numbers come out Sunday morning when Sunday night hasn't even arrived.

For someone who knows a lot about box office records and such I feel like I should know this already or something

Yeah i never understand that either and same thing with saying what a movie is going to make on saturday but i think part of it is that there tends to be some sorrt of way to predect what saturday will make based of what friday did and i think that is true about saturday going to sunday but i am not sure.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm pretty sure a year ago there were some people who had Age of Ultron winning the 2015 Box Office title and TFA has made almost 100 million dollars more in 10 days than its entire domestic box office run.

lol i got to let that settle in for a minute.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Those boxoffice numbers...

Where is this from?

 

[jokesonm3]

I'm pretty sure a year ago there were some people who had Age of Ultron winning the 2015 Box Office title and TFA has made almost 100 million dollars more in 10 days than its entire domestic box office run.

Count me in that list a few years ago lol, Avengers fever was at an all time high post 2012.

And congrats on your post count. t:

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm pretty sure a year ago there were some people who had Age of Ultron winning the 2015 Box Office title and TFA has made almost 100 million dollars more in 10 days than its entire domestic box office run.

That is true, but what I think fueled that is people were hedging their bets on these films because of how poor the prequels were. But we probably should have noticed that most of the prequels were financially successful.

I did think that if any film had the potential to be the new record holder it would be Star Wars, but I was also hesitant because it was being released in December.

I'd have to go back and look because I don't remember exactly what my prediction was, but I thought that AoU would get the weekend record but that it would gross as much as the first Avengers, and that TFA would not win the weekend record but would gross as much or more than AoU, by having stronger legs.

You have to be fair in that this is unprecedented. Does it surprise me that this film is the winner? No of course not it's Star Wars. On the other hand it surprises me that it's gotten there this fast.

The bigger surprise was Jurassic World, but when that film got the record (and just barely), I thought TFA had a chance, but never expected by this much.

Keep in mind this is beating Jurassic World next week as the no 1 move of 2015.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Count me in that list a few years ago lol, Avengers fever was at an all time high post 2012.

And congrats on your post count. t:

As these numbers shows, Avengers fever was a bit... overestimated.

 

[spiderman2]

That is true, but what I think fueled that is people were hedging their bets on these films because of how poor the prequels were. But we probably should have noticed that most of the prequels were financially successful.

I did think that if any film had the potential to be the new record holder it would be Star Wars, but I was also hesitant because it was being released in December.

I'd have to go back and look because I don't remember exactly what my prediction was, but I thought that AoU would get the weekend record but that it would gross as much as the first Avengers, and that TFA would not win the weekend record but would gross as much or more than AoU, by having stronger legs.

You have to be fair in that this is unprecedented. Does it surprise me that this film is the winner? No of course not it's Star Wars. On the other hand it surprises me that it's gotten there this fast.

The bigger surprise was Jurassic World, but when that film got the record (and just barely), I thought TFA had a chance, but never expected by this much.

Keep in mind this is beating Jurassic World next week as the no 1 move of 2015.

Yeah i guess i should have seen this coming. I mean episode 1 made like 900m WW with out 3d and with a much smaller internation market and with 16 years less of inflations. 900m back in 1999 was big and with out 3d. I mean i think there are like 20 movies now or something that have done 1 billion or more but back at that point in time in 1999 i think there had only been 1 or 2. If a star wars movie could make that much back then with all of those things and crapy reviews on top of it of course a movie 16 years later of inflation and 3d tickets and a bigger internation market was going to be really big. Then you have to consider that people like the movie much more then 1 so repeat views are goiing to be much higher.

 

[spiderman2]

So the movie needs to make arond 568 more WW to reach jurassic world. How long do you guys think that will take?

 

[Marvolo]

Yeah i guess i should have seen this coming. I mean episode 1 made like 900m WW with out 3d and with a much smaller internation market and with 16 years less of inflations. 900m back in 1999 was big and with out 3d. I mean i think there are like 20 movies now or something that have done 1 billion or more but back at that point in time in 1999 i think there had only been 1 or 2. If a star wars movie could make that much back then with all of those things and crapy reviews on top of it of course a movie 16 years later of inflation and 3d tickets and a bigger internation market was going to be really big. Then you have to consider that people like the movie much more then 1 so repeat views are goiing to be much higher.

And keep in mind the number of star wars fans that have been born since 2005. The fan base is always growing.

 

[Sithborg]

Yeah i never understand that either and same thing with saying what a movie is going to make on saturday but i think part of it is that there tends to be some sorrt of way to predect what saturday will make based of what friday did and i think that is true about saturday going to sunday but i am not sure.

I mean, you just have to go to the first version of this thread to see some quotes that have been hilariously destroyed. Though, to be fair, I didn't quite see it being this successful.

Where is this from?

Ellen, I believe.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

As these numbers shows, Avengers fever was a bit... overestimated.

Avengers still was a break out smash success that was a cultural phenomenon and grounder breaking franchise.

It's still not easy to make over 600 m DOM or 1.5 billion WW. And every studio now wants a Cinematic Universe.

It's just that Star Wars transcends most entertainment.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Avengers still was a break out smash success that was a cultural phenomenon and grounder breaking franchise.

It's still not easy to make over 600 m DOM or 1.5 billion WW. And every studio now wants a Cinematic Universe.

It's just that Star Wars transcends most entertainment.

People were calling the Avengers the new Star Wars franchise and were talking about how AoU would easily beat Star Wars this year. Both of those are clearly false. As you said, Star Wars transcends.

 

[jmc]

I'm going to be honest and say that TFA level of success is not all that surprising to me. To me anyway, I look at something like Jurassic World, The Hunger Games and even the first Avengers movies as being more surprising in the level of success they achieved because there was little indication prior to those films being released that they would reach those heights. Star Wars is a 40 year old franchise that is beloved by all. When it was announced we were getting a new movie with the old cast returning the film was only ever going to be a success because the build up began immediately. 3 generations of fans + 40 years of history + years of build up and anticipation + emotional trailers + critical acclaim. It was only ever going to end with TFA annihilating box office records. What's happening now is more than likely something we will never see again and that opening weekend record is something we'll probably not see broken again for a long time, not even Episode VIII and IX will match this. But to me anyway, it's not that surprising.

 

[mclay18]

I said it sounded crazy when I wrote it, but I really felt that TFA would be on track for 400M after last Thursday and 550M after the weekend. I can see close to 200M over the next 7 days. That puts it right on Avatar's heels as of the weekend ending January 3.

I just read Pamela McClintock's latest article on THR. She says that TFA is on track to pass Avatar's domestic cume ($760M) by the end of New Year's weekend, and a final domestic gross north of $1 billion is certainly possible.

Credit the numerous people going back for repeat helpings too.

 

[Vincanws]

I'm curious whether this will pass Jurassic World's domestic before 2015 is done. I guess in 4 days $110M or so is achievable? Going to be tight?

 

[Vincanws]

I'm going to be honest and say that TFA level of success is not all that surprising to me.

Being honest I expected success, but it's surprising to me it's come as fast as this. I'm not sure anybody could have hoped for quite this rush, mostly owing to there not being that much prescient set before this.

 

[jmc]

The only thing that really surprised me was the second week drop off, I didn't think it would hold so well. But other than that as unprecedented as this is, given the franchise we're talking about it really shouldn't come as that big a surprise in hindsight. This isn't a situation where there was no indication of just how big it could be. There may be popular franchises out there but they are all dwarfed by Star Wars.