The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

Have we had this update (from http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/) while I was asleep? Looks like Sunday was better than expected.

Whoa......hold the presses. That's just crazy. WoM works wonders......

 

[Silver Surfer]

7TH UPDATE, MONDAY AM: Disney CEO Bob Iger proclaimed this morning that Star Wars: The Force Awakens is “Bigger than big.” Something of an understatement, Iger made the comment in an interview on Bloomberg GO with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin, during which he said the final global number for opening weekend “will be in the neighborhood of $528M.” That would make it the No. 1 worldwide bow of all time, besting the $524.9M that Jurassic World posted this summer. The final confirmed figures will come in later today, but Iger put domestic in the “$247M range.” However, industry estimates this morning are running from $248.5M-$250.3M which would lift the global cume even higher. Sunday’s international projection was $279M which Iger said would grow in the actuals. “It’s bigger than we thought it would be yesterday.” He also noted that China has yet to open. As we’ve noted, that’s significant because China was worth nearly $100M of JW‘s take in June. And, Disney has been pulling out the stops to prime the Middle Kingdom for the return of the Jedis in January.

JW's WW Opening Weekend record is toast as well..... WITHOUT CHINA!

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Have we had this update (from http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/) while I was asleep? Looks like Sunday was better than expected.

It's incredible to think that TFA beat JW's Global Release without China

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

JW's WW Opening Weekend record is toast as well..... WITHOUT CHINA!

It makes more sense now. The world is spinning the right way. Order has been restored in the Universe.

I mean, it's Jurassic Park vs Star Wars. Of course SW beats it without China.

 

[InCali]

It's incredible to think that TFA beat JW's Global Release without China

With China it destroys it by over 100M. I think the delay of the release date is going to work in TFA's favor in China. People are going to be hearing all about how gigantic it is, how good it is, and get worked up into a frothing fervor (ok, maybe I'm exaggerating a LITTLE bit). That and the publicity the Disney team is throwing in there.....

 

[Jekecy]

There's a giddy feeling in me when I'm actually a part of a box office phenom in Star Wars. I wasn't born when the OT was out, and was too young to be active in film when TPM debuted.

Glad I'm part of this whole craze. This has been an incredible year for 7th films in a franchise.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

JW's WW Opening Weekend record is toast as well..... WITHOUT CHINA!

Don't be too proud of this technological terror you've created. The ability to clone dinosaurs is insignificant next to the power of The Force.

t:t:t:

 

[InCali]

OK. If it's at 250M (that just sounds ridiculous to me), I wonder what it'll bring in Monday? Hey Austrailia, any word on how your Monday went compared to Sunday? Wake up over there!!! I have important questions and need some answers.

It'll be VERY interesting to figure out about where it'll be after Thursday. With this thing, all bets are off as there aren't any comparable movies in the past.

 

[Iceman]

Whoa......hold the presses. That's just crazy. WoM works wonders......

Compare WoM for this against TPM!

It's incredible to think that TFA beat JW's Global Release without China

I hope it can get the overseas record too (excluding US for both and TFA without China).

With China it destroys it by over 100M. I think the delay of the release date is going to work in TFA's favor in China. People are going to be hearing all about how gigantic it is, how good it is, and get worked up into a frothing fervor (ok, maybe I'm exaggerating a LITTLE bit). That and the publicity the Disney team is throwing in there.....

I think that is true to an extent. They will be watching to see what the fuss is about worldwide at least. And once they get properly into it Star Wars can add a few hundred million to every release going forward!

 

[baerrtt]

There's a giddy feeling in me when I'm actually a part of a box office phenom in Star Wars. I wasn't born when the OT was out, and was too young to be active in film when TPM debuted.

Glad I'm part of this whole craze. This has been an incredible year for 7th films in a franchise.

Yeah...growing up in the 80s the idea that STAR WARS and ROCKY would still be capable of delivering very successful entries 30 years later is not entirely unsurprising but still a pleasant experience to be living through.

And to think, regarding FURIOUS 7, back to that very first POINT BREAK with cars remake in 2001 and realising what it would become.

Good year all around.

 

[Reel-Man]

Hmmm
http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...awakens-jurassic-world-box-office-1201665834/

The Force Awakens’ Falls Short of ‘Jurassic World’ Global Box Office Record

 

[The Chris]

that was before the updates it seems.

 

[Reel-Man]

Ah good point, just looked at the date. It was posted yesterday around 1pm. I was confused for a moment how one was saying one thing and then another reputable source saying something else. They always seem to release their stories too early, before waiting for final numbers.

 

[Rocketman]

Dammmnnn.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. Here's today's story.

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-the-force-awakens-record-box-office-1201665985/

 

[Serpico Jones]

Hmmm
http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...awakens-jurassic-world-box-office-1201665834/

Sunday numbers came in stronger than anticipated. That story needs to be updated.

 

[Iceman]

Variety is always behind the curve on box office updates. They are usually making predictions that are based on info wildly out of date too.

 

[Vincanws]

The Force Awakens global fell short of Jurassic World? Pah! Not likely. We shall see in a couple of hours. Pah!

 

[InCali]

Hmmm
http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...awakens-jurassic-world-box-office-1201665834/

Look at the date.....12/20.

 

[InCali]

I think TFA has a very, very good chance to overtake Avatar in the US/Canada. Jurassic World had a multiplier of just over 3.12. If you apply the same multiplier to the opening week (estimated) of TFA, that would work out to about 743.5M. Avatar took in 750M (I don't count re-releases because it's apples and oranges). TFA would only need a multiplier of about 3.15 to take over the #1 spot. Given the time of year and how obviously people were starved for a new SW movie, I think it's highly unlikely that it doesn't get a much better multiplier than JW (which had a lot of goodwill going for it, but nothing close to the fanaticism of the SW faithful). Final US/Canada predictions???

Make that a 3X multiplier to pass Avatar (US/Canada). It's early, but I think it's kind of a done deal. I just can't imagine TFA falling short of that; esp. with the reception AND release date AND (lack of) compelling upcoming releases.

 

[SyntaxError]

Yup. Here's today's story.

http://variety.com/2015/film/box-office/star-wars-the-force-awakens-record-box-office-1201665985/

Those are Saturday estimates. Iger went on Bloomberg on Sunday saying actuals came in much higher.

On Saturday they estimated 238 domestic, 517 global (8 shy of JW's global record with China). Everyone knew Disney was being extremely conservative and lowballing so that they could make bigger headlines when actuals came out. They predicted a -29% drop from Saturday-Sunday when really industry was predicting -20% to ~240-245M and a global tally potentially breaking JW's record.

Turns out the film did EVEN BETTER on Sunday with a -12% drop, which is even better than JW. Breaks the Sunday record too. With the Domestic is looking at 247-250, and global is 528. Breaks domestic and global, although overseas is still HP.

_____


With 250 OW, this looks to go 800M at the end domestic.

 

[mabromov]

You guys think this could beat Avatar?

 

[JOE]

Christmas came early ladies and gentlemen, and I couldn't be happier! Stoked that it's taking all the records it deserves! Saw the movie for the first time last night, now I know why this movie is going to be the movie of the year.

 

[SyntaxError]

You guys think this could beat Avatar?

Domestic definitely. Worldwide? No. Unless China is meteoric.

 

[Horhey]

Thing is, if SW7 can't get to avatar then I doubt SW8 will get there. I expect a significant drop-off for SW8, but depending on what capacity Episode 10 is, SW9 could have a shot.

I don't because by that time there will be far more female fans. Right now, the percentage of females watching E-VII is only at 30%.