The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[guy_in_us1]

Probably the biggest box office gross of all time.

 

[spiderman2]

10-12 is three decades away at least, or 2.5 decades at the very least. You can't have the type of financial return if you do another trilogy every 5-6 years.

Old Republic can be 2-3 trilogies itself. But get a trilogy out of that and start that next. It will sort of take the bad taste of the prequels completely away by going back to something similar in scope and visually.

The only spinoffs I feel are interesting are the one's currently rumored. Solo and Fett, although I think Fett works better for TV. Maybe he can go to TV after his movie. We will also be getting live action TV shows sooner than later.

But but Disney of course they can do a new trilogy ever 5-6 years. Do we know when the solo movie is coming out? I have not heard much about the live action tv show lattley. What is the states on that?

 

[InCali]

10-12 is three decades away at least, or 2.5 decades at the very least. You can't have the type of financial return if you do another trilogy every 5-6 years.

Old Republic can be 2-3 trilogies itself. But get a trilogy out of that and start that next. It will sort of take the bad taste of the prequels completely away by going back to something similar in scope and visually.

The only spinoffs I feel are interesting are the one's currently rumored. Solo and Fett, although I think Fett works better for TV. Maybe he can go to TV after his movie. We will also be getting live action TV shows sooner than later.

I told you we didn't agree on anything. I think Mr. T has been yanking my chain lately.

In any case, and from a strictly financial perspective , waiting 20 or 30 years in the hope of cashing in probably isn't a sound financial decision. The cultural tastes in movies can change dramatically, movie making may not be as profitable as it is now, and many other changes could make the industry less lucrative.

So, make good movies and cash in now while I'm still alive. It's a smart financial decision.

 

[Silver Surfer]

20? 30 years between trilogies? lol

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So, make good movies and cash in now while I'm still alive. It's a smart financial decision.

Yeah, this. I'd like to see as many as I can before I

 

[The Whizzer]

Marvel is going from two movies a year to three because of how much money the MCU is making. You have to be crazy to think that Disney will allow a decade-long gap between trilogies of their new multibillion-dollar franchise. I wouldn't be surprised if we start getting two new Star Wars universe movies a year at some point. In fact, I give maybe five years at the most between trilogies if Disney decides to go this route.

 

[Tilapia]

If I wasn't clear, you would have a trilogy based on a new set of characters and a brand new story in between. Nobody is going to care about Episode 10-12 if it comes out 5 years after Episode 9. That leads to franchise fatigue. Do a KOTOR trilogy before coming back to 10-12. Currently, you can't do anything remotely close to a KOTOR visually in the current continuity.

Edit, for example:

2017: Episode 8
2018: Han Solo
2019: Episode 9
2020: Boba Fett

2025-2031: KOTOR 1-3

2035-2041: 10-12

 

[Silver Surfer]

They should alternate trilogies between The Old Republic and the Skywalkers, but there is zero chance Disney waits 20-30 years to do EP 10-12

 

[Tilapia]

They should alternate trilogies between The Old Republic and the Skywalkers, but there is zero chance Disney waits 20-30 years to do EP 10-12

It takes 6-7 years to develop and finish most trilogies. Even in an accelerated timeline as we have now, you need at least 5 years to let it play out from pre-production of film one to post on film 3. A 4-5 year gap between trilogies is typical these days if not longer, plus another 4-5 year break in the back end of a KOTOR trilogy, so we would not be seeing an Episode 10 until at least 2030, which is what I projected.

 

[The Whizzer]

Nobody is going to care about Episode 10-12 if it comes out 5 years after Episode 9. That leads to franchise fatigue.

This is Star Wars. People will always care.

 

[InCali]

If I wasn't clear, you would have a trilogy based on a new set of characters and a brand new story in between. Nobody is going to care about Episode 10-12 if it comes out 5 years after Episode 9. That leads to franchise fatigue. Do a KOTOR trilogy before coming back to 10-12. Currently, you can't do anything remotely close to a KOTOR visually in the current continuity.

Edit, for example:

2017: Episode 8
2018: Han Solo
2019: Episode 9
2020: Boba Fett

2025-2031: KOTOR 1-3

2035-2041: 10-12

This SW line up would put the franchise at a sizable disadvantage compared to, say, the MCU schedule. Fortunately, you aren't making these decisions for this branch of Disney and I'll be stunned if they follow your advice.

I'm down with Disney doing some major spinoffs (ala MCU), but they could "easily" do an episode 10 in 2021. One movie a year prolly ain't good business.

Plus, I have a stake in this....I'll prolly be alive. t:

So, without knowing jack snot, how much of a falloff do people see with Episode 8?

 

[spiderman2]

This is Star Wars. People will always care.

I don't even believe in franchise fatigue its a myth. There are some movies that should have done worse then what they did if franchise fatigue was real. I don't think it matters how many movies a franchise get has long has the movies are still good. Heck look how long bond has been around. Has long has you make good movies people are going to see them no matter how many there are. The only thing that is going to make people not want to continue to watch a franchise is if the movies became crap.

 

[Iceman]

10-12 is three decades away at least, or 2.5 decades at the very least. You can't have the type of financial return if you do another trilogy every 5-6 years.

Old Republic can be 2-3 trilogies itself. But get a trilogy out of that and start that next. It will sort of take the bad taste of the prequels completely away by going back to something similar in scope and visually.

The only spinoffs I feel are interesting are the one's currently rumored. Solo and Fett, although I think Fett works better for TV. Maybe he can go to TV after his movie. We will also be getting live action TV shows sooner than later.

If you're just talking financials then you need to account for needing movies to be only half as profitable if you make twice as many or 1/4 as profitable if you make 4 times as many (relevant when we're talking about making few movies in total as opposed to a studio which is nearing full capacity). In addition money made in the near future is worth a lot more to a going concern business. There are very few who care about a potential jackpot 30 years away when a number of semi-jackpots can be realised multiple times before then and help the company's liquidity and security. And with that kind of timeframe there is also too much uncertainty in numerous areas. Literally anything can happen in 30 years (there was no worldwide internet to discuss this on far less than 30 years ago) and the films could turn out disappointing even after that long of a wait.

 

[spiderman2]

This SW line up would put the franchise at a sizable disadvantage compared to, say, the MCU schedule. Fortunately, you aren't making these decisions for this branch of Disney and I'll be stunned if they follow your advice.

I'm down with Disney doing some major spinoffs (ala MCU), but they could "easily" do an episode 10 in 2021. One movie a year prolly ain't good business.

Plus, I have a stake in this....I'll prolly be alive. t:

So, without knowing jack snot, how much of a falloff do people see with Episode 8?

That is a good question about episode 8. A lot of it will depend on how good episode 8 is. But lets say 7 ends up making 3 billion WW I could see 8 making like 2.5 billion or something. A good drop but at the same time still better then just about ever another movie out there. For what its worth new hope has made about 775 million WW and empire has made about 538 million WW. Return of the Jedi made about 475 million. Of course things where different back then compared to now so I am not sure how those really compared to now days.

 

[InCali]

I don't even believe in franchise fatigue its a myth. There are some movies that should have done worse then what they did if franchise fatigue was real. I don't think it matters how many movies a franchise get has long has the movies are still good. Heck look how long bond has been around. Has long has you make good movies people are going to see them no matter how many there are. The only thing that is going to make people not want to continue to watch a franchise is if the movies became crap.

ding ding ding.....folks, we have a winner.

Marvel has done just fine even with Superhero "fatigue". Poor Civil War and BvS....they're gonna bomb because we're all so sick of watching this sort of thing.

 

[Sithborg]

I don't fatigue results in the type of bombing like some people think. I think it leads to a sort of ceiling for how high a movie can go. Superhero films are saturating the market. When you lose the "event" status, people are less eager to go "NOW".

And despite what people may think, a billion isn't guaranteed for BvS and Civil War.

 

[Tilapia]

I don't even believe in franchise fatigue its a myth. There are some movies that should have done worse then what they did if franchise fatigue was real. I don't think it matters how many movies a franchise get has long has the movies are still good. Heck look how long bond has been around. Has long has you make good movies people are going to see them no matter how many there are. The only thing that is going to make people not want to continue to watch a franchise is if the movies became crap.

See ASM, PoTC 4, and recent TF movie. The only thing that have kept these franchises afloat is the international markets. Eventually those markets get saturated.

We will not see a Star Wars movie every year for the next 15 years. No chance of that. Sorry folks.

 

[spiderman2]

ding ding ding.....folks, we have a winner.

Marvel has done just fine even with Superhero "fatigue". Poor Civil War and BvS....they're gonna bomb because we're all so sick of watching this sort of thing.

Yeah heck if fatigue was such a issue then iron man 3 shouldn't have done so while. I know that he got a boost from avengers but still he was in iron man 1 and 2 and avengers and iron man 3. So he was in 4 movies in 5 years yet iron man 3 made around 1.2 billion. People should have been sick of him by then already. Do people stop watching sports because it is the same thing? Do people stop watching comedy's because it is the same thing? No they don't people still love to watch sports including me and people still watch sitcoms to.

 

[InCali]

I don't fatigue results in the type of bombing like some people think. I think it leads to a sort of ceiling for how high a movie can go. Superhero films are saturating the market. When you lose the "event" status, people are less eager to go "NOW".

And despite what people may think, a billion isn't guaranteed for BvS and Civil War.

OK. If that's your definition, that's cool. But if you put out, say, 6 movies a year and make a 100M or so (each), from a corporate perspective (and from mine because I just want to see a ton of good movies), that's better than stringing movies out to have a giant sized blockbuster.

May releases tend to have bigger first weeks and lesser legs than December releases due to summer movie "fatigue". I just wanna see a bunch of good movies and summer tends to be my preference. To heck with "fatigue".....

 

[spiderman2]

I don't fatigue results in the type of bombing like some people think. I think it leads to a sort of ceiling for how high a movie can go. Superhero films are saturating the market. When you lose the "event" status, people are less eager to go "NOW".

And despite what people may think, a billion isn't guaranteed for BvS and Civil War.

I am not saying that fatigue means a movie bombing but if it was really an issue then at some point in time each movie in a franchise in less they come out a while after the one before should make less and less and less. Heck you even have a lot of video game franchise more so shooting games that come out ever year and still sale great and yeah BVS is going to make at least a billion. You have 2 of the biggest superheros off all time on the screen together for the first time that by its self is creating a lot of hype.

See ASM, PoTC 4, and recent TF movie. The only thing that have kept these franchises afloat is the international markets. Eventually those markets get saturated.

We will not see a Star Wars movie every year for the next 15 years. No chance of that. Sorry folks.

I am not saying that we will see a star wars movie ever year for the next 15 years but there is a big difference between having a star wars movie ever year for the next 15 years and saying taking a 10 year break after episode 9 comes out. Yes the international market getting bigger helps movies. I guess you can say that the international market getting bigger is bad and good. Its bad because it means it is getting less likely that a movie can truly flop. At the same time maybe with having the international market to make more money maybe people who make movies can be a little more less worried about people not liking a movie and tanking more chansess.

 

[InCali]

See ASM, PoTC 4, and recent TF movie. The only thing that have kept these franchises afloat is the international markets. Eventually those markets get saturated.

We will not see a Star Wars movie every year for the next 15 years. No chance of that. Sorry folks.

Yeah.....great examples. TASM2 was a really compelling movie....one of the very best I've seen in ages. It was only slightly better than TF (Crapformers: Age of Suckstink$#!t). I'm really happy that later the same year the "fatigued" Marvel movie Guardians of the Galaxy came out. PotC 4 was an instant classic and I'm sure everyone loved it.

We're talking about movies that are actually good (ie GotG....which should have been fatigued) and not smelly piles of poo that someone made just to pull in some dough......

What we'll see from SW over the next few years remains to be determined. FFINO had a release date for the sequel before the first stinker was released. It would have done just fine if not for superhero fatigue.

What some of us are saying is "If you make good movies, they'll do just fine."

 

[Rocketman]

All Sunday showings at three different movie theaters in my area were sold out, from 8AM all the way to 11PM.

Wait 'til they count the Sunday box office. This could be a $400 million opening weekend.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

Tasm 2 is the spider-man equivalent of the prequel trilogy

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Tasm 2 is the spider-man equivalent of the prequel trilogy

I'm a TASM2 hater and even I wouldn't go quite that far.

 

[jokesonm3]

If superhero films can avoid fatigue then Star Wars can avoid fatigue.