The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well deserved for JJ. Another critical and financial success for that mediocre director.

And don't worry SPIDEY, we will see that MoS sequel someday.

I'm keeping the faith.

The X forums are quite unique. No other boards are quite like it, in both good and not so good ways.

The DC boards are a clique that I am apart of, the X-Men boards are not. And I realized I really don't want to be apart of that world so whatever. Any clique that ignores that Fantastic Four was a Catwoman level disaster until the last minute is...not my clique.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought the trailer went out its way to portray the fact that it's TWS sequel in tone and look. Not Avengers 2.5

Which is why the trailer got me excited.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah I don't think Marvel are hiding that Civil War is mainly a Captain America film and is a follow up to Winter Soldier. I think it's sorta Avengers 2.5 but not in a bad way.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm keeping the faith.
The DC boards are a clique that I am apart of, the X-Men boards are not. And I realized I really don't want to be apart of that world so whatever. Any clique that ignores that Fantastic Four was a Catwoman level disaster until the last minute is...not my clique.

Just too much territory protecting all around. With Fox clearly being the odd one out of the three studios, you get more of that. It is no different then what happened with TASM. The denial was heavy for that franchise as well.

Yeah I don't think Marvel are hiding that Civil War is mainly a Captain America film and is a follow up to Winter Soldier. I think it's sorta Avengers 2.5 but not in a bad way.

The same way TWS was Avengers 1.5.

 

[Tony Stark]

Don't burn me at the stake, but I liked AoU better than TA. I didn't like the villain quite as much, but thought the character development was way better and liked the story. I watched it again the other night and liked it better than I did the first time.

I thought the 2 best things about JW were the two leads. I wanted to strangle the kids and wished they'd gotten eaten after taking off on their little expedition. I thought the movie was okay and Pratt/Howard made it good.

A lot of people do like it better. I'm more talking general consensus. I agree about Pratt and Howard, I thought they were fine. My biggest problem with the film is how it totally rejects the rest of the films. Seems like the only reason to make it was to make money.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A lot of people do like it better. I'm more talking general consensus. I agree about Pratt and Howard, I thought they were fine. My biggest problem with the film is how it totally rejects the rest of the films. Seems like the only reason to make it was to make money.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think BVS or Apocalypse are going to be as successful as people seem to think. Especially apocalypse. I never assumed Civil War was gonna be a record breaker but it seems more like the Avengers sequel everyone craved even though it's a cap movie, so who knows?

Ageed on BVS and Apocalypse. I've got no read on CW. Is it going to perform like a Captain America film or an Avengers film? A lot will depend on critical response, but there may be some franchise fatigue setting in. I said when Avengers came out it would be hard to follow the financial success of that film for the rest of the films.

X-men has never been a huge financial franchise. I expect it will do well enough, but most likely below DOFP.

BVS is all going to depend on critical response.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Just too much territory protecting all around. With Fox clearly being the odd one out of the thread studios, you get more of that. It is no different then what happened with TASM. The denial was heavy for that franchise as well.

The fact is any movie can disappoint in many ways(box office/reviews), fans on all sides will do well to understand that. I'm not guaranteed to like or dislike any film really. I can easily see disliking any of the 2016 comic book films.

TASM was an interesting case because of how much money it made (700mil is a ton of money) and the fact that it's reviews were more mediocre than bad. With regular blockbuster budgets the Spidey films could have continued. Honestly Marvel is by far the smartest when it comes to budgets.

The same way TWS was Avengers 1.5.

Exactly.

 

[Tony Stark]

I thought the trailer went out its way to portray the fact that it's TWS sequel in tone and look. Not Avengers 2.5

I agree here. It's definitely CW follow up and I felt as much even with the post credit Ant-man scene.

It's mainly a question of how the box office reacts to who is in it. CW was a huge boost over TFA, but it wasn't even the biggest Marvel film of the year, let alone the biggest CBM of the year.

But I think with RDJ and Evans, it will surpass IM3 to be at least the 3rd biggest Marvel film. That would be enough to consider it a huge success. I think it's about guaranteed to be a 1B film, so long as the reviews aren't terrible.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I see Civil War as a movie dealing with the fallout of the Avengers as told through the eyes of Cap. By default it continues the Winter Soldier story too.

 

[Sithborg]

I'm keeping the faith.
The DC boards are a clique that I am apart of, the X-Men boards are not. And I realized I really don't want to be apart of that world so whatever. Any clique that ignores that Fantastic Four was a Catwoman level disaster until the last minute is...not my clique.

As someone part of it, I don't blame you.

 

[InCali]

Just look at the drops the Hobbit movies had between the weekend before and the weekend after Christmas.

I am a HUGE Tolkien fan and probably know more about the history of middle earth than anyone on this thread. If you want, you can check out my collection at

http://www.cloudvistas.com/the-world-of-j-r-r-tolkien/


That being said, you can't compare The Hobbit to TFA as far as box office goes. It's true that Wed and Thurs are usually off from Mon and Tues, but this isn't any ordinary Wed and Thurs. It is the night before Xmas Eve and Xmas Eve.

Look, I'm not saying I'm right (remember, I suck at this), but there IS some logic behind my predictions.

 

[Iceman]

What is the point of these cliques again? I never really understood it properly.

 

[Tony Stark]

The thing with a movie opening like TFA is it resets the bar, and it's hard to compare it to anything else.

I don't see any of the Hobbit films drop offs effecting this movie, because there was a lot of mixed reaction to those films. They certainly weren't as popular as the LOTR films. We're on totally new ground here, having a film like this perform this way in December is unheard of.

The big thing to consider is how Friday will effect the weekend numbers. I would say you're going to have a larger drop on Friday than normal, but a bigger recovery on Saturday as it's the 2nd biggest shopping day of the year and people will be out and about.

However let's be honest here guys, this film can have a pretty big 2nd week drop and it's still easily getting the 2nd weekend record, but Christmas day is going to effect things.

 

[InCali]

The thing with a movie opening like TFA is it resets the bar, and it's hard to compare it to anything else.

I don't see any of the Hobbit films drop offs effecting this movie, because there was a lot of mixed reaction to those films. They certainly weren't as popular as the LOTR films. We're on totally new ground here, having a film like this perform this way in December is unheard of.

The big thing to consider is how Friday will effect the weekend numbers. I would say you're going to have a larger drop on Friday than normal, but a bigger recovery on Saturday as it's the 2nd biggest shopping day of the year and people will be out and about.

However let's be honest here guys, this film can have a pretty big 2nd week drop and it's still easily getting the 2nd weekend record, but Christmas day is going to effect things.

Right. And I think the effect will be positive. If it has about the same drop off as JW (which didn't have the benefit of Xmas), then it'll be around $130M more or less.

We shall see. It's going to be very, very interesting.

 

[InCali]

What is the point of these cliques again? I never really understood it properly.

If you don't understand, then you shouldn't be in one.

 

[InCali]

The thing with a movie opening like TFA is it resets the bar, and it's hard to compare it to anything else.

I don't see any of the Hobbit films drop offs effecting this movie, because there was a lot of mixed reaction to those films. They certainly weren't as popular as the LOTR films. We're on totally new ground here, having a film like this perform this way in December is unheard of.

The big thing to consider is how Friday will effect the weekend numbers. I would say you're going to have a larger drop on Friday than normal, but a bigger recovery on Saturday as it's the 2nd biggest shopping day of the year and people will be out and about.

However let's be honest here guys, this film can have a pretty big 2nd week drop and it's still easily getting the 2nd weekend record, but Christmas day is going to effect things.

I wanted to strangle Peter Jackson.....I wasn't even particularly happy with the LotR trilogy, though it was clearly better. That is to say it didn't COMPLETELY butcher the books.

 

[JOE]

Civil War will make more money than Age of Ultron for 2 reasons. Spider-Man and Black Panther.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I wanted to strangle Peter Jackson.....I wasn't even particularly happy with the LotR trilogy, though it was clearly better. That is to say it didn't COMPLETELY butcher the books.

I like you more with every post. t:

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Everyone was so sure that Age of Ultron would brake all records and it didn't, excuse me if I'm cautious about Civil War, which isn't even an Avengers film really.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Civil War will make more money than Age of Ultron for 2 reasons. Spider-Man and Black Panther.

I don't know if they mean extra money. If anything, they can help maintain, at least with Spidey. BP isn't a big character to those that aren't already fans. I am thinking IM3 money, but a bit more if it is as good as TWS. However, there is a real chance of fatigue if BvS kills it.

 

[PacificBoy]

I don't know if they mean extra money. If anything, they can help maintain, at least with Spidey. BP isn't a big character to those that aren't already fans. I am thinking IM3 money, but a bit more if it is as good as TWS. However, there is a real chance of fatigue if BvS kills it.

I think it's the opposite. BvS killing it can only help ward off any superhero genre fatigue. If the average moviegoer has a great time with BvS they're more likely to look forward to the next big superhero flick. Betcha the likes of Feige are cheering DC on.

 

[Sithborg]

So, is it Christmas Eve or Christmas that is a bigger movie day?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think it's the opposite. BvS killing it can only help ward off any superhero genre fatigue. If the average moviegoer has a great time with BvS they're more likely to look forward to the next big superhero flick. Betcha the likes of Feige are cheering DC on.

That could happen. However, if there is a preference for BvS, that won't keep people from going to see Civil war, but it might stop the repeat viewing a bit. You don't stop genre fatigue by releasing a great film. If anything it reinforces it. AoU had such a dramatic fall domestically.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So, is it Christmas Eve or Christmas that is a bigger movie day?

Christmas Day.