The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Sithborg]

Which really, really helps the weekend.

 

[PacificBoy]

That could happen. However, if there is a preference for BvS, that won't keep people from going to see Civil war, but it might stop the repeat viewing a bit. You don't stop genre fatigue by releasing a great film. If anything it reinforces it. AoU had such a dramatic fall domestically.

You could be right as well. It's hard to say with only AoU's underperformance as any kind of yardstick for fatigue. Personally I thought it was a solid movie in its own right -- just that it didn't live up to its overwhelming hype as the sequel to one of the biggest and beloved movies ever. How superhero movies perform in 2016, especially with the overseas box office up for grabs in places like China, should give us a clearer indication.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Christmas Day and Thanksgiving are massive. I guess families go together.

 

[Sithborg]

Christmas Day and Thanksgiving are massive. I guess families go together.

Hell, that's what my family will be doing. At the bare minimum I will be going to see it a third time with my uncle and cousin.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You could be right as well. It's hard to say with only AoU's underperformance as any kind of yardstick for fatigue. Personally I thought it was a solid movie in its own right -- just that it didn't live up to its overwhelming hype as the sequel to one of the biggest and beloved movies ever. How superhero movies perform in 2016, especially with the overseas box office up for grabs in places like China, should give us a clearer indication.

Yeah, 2016 is going to be interesting. Should teach us a lot. International should keep up the pace, but domestic numbers should be interesting.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Hell, that's what my family will be doing. At the bare minimum I will be going to see it a third time with my uncle and cousin.

 

[Sithborg]

I am curious whether TMNT 2 is going to be a Revenge of the Fallen, or Dark of the Moon (domestically, that is).

 

[Snow Queen]

I am curious whether TMNT 2 is going to be a Revenge of the Fallen, or Dark of the Moon (domestically, that is).

That trailer sure looked like a Revenge of the Fa-oh you mean box office wise.

 

[Iceman]

If you don't understand, then you shouldn't be in one.

I think you're right. t:

Maybe it's fun to be in all of them.

 

[InCali]

I think you're right. t:

Maybe it's fun to be in all of them.

Being in all of the cliques means you aren't in any of them.

I don't think I'll ever understand you......

 

[Silver Surfer]

160+ million for next weekend, this thing is gonna gain serious momentum going into Friday. Heck it might do more business in it's second weekend, than BVS will do in it's OW. t:

 

[InCali]

160+ million for next weekend, this thing is gonna gain serious momentum going into Friday. Heck it might do more business in it's second weekend, than BVS will do in it's OW. t:

Possible. Don't hold me to this, because I'm doing this in my head, but that would be about a 64% hold. Way, WAY high, but with Xmas and WoM, I suppose it's possible. I still think Wed/Thur won't drop as much as usual because of Xmas Eve. If everything aligns, this could be just crazy.

Can you even imagine??? 550M+ after TEN days?!?!?!

 

[mclay18]

The Wrap says that at the pace TFA is going at the box office, it's set to overtake Avatar as overall box office champ.

http://www.thewrap.com/star-wars-on-pace-to-overtake-avatar-as-all-time-box-office-champ/

Well, the Sunday-to-Monday drop TFA experienced was identical to Avatar's opening week (33.8%).

 

[Ant]

Any Tuesday estimates in yet?

 

[Silver Surfer]

AVATAR grossed 283 million in 14 days.
TFA has grossed 288 million in friggin' FOUR

Yea...

 

[Bruce Malone]

So regarding the Box Office for the sequels as things are planned now the goal as per James Cameron is to have Avatar 2 Christmas 2017, Avatar 3 Christmas 2018, Avatar 4 Christmas 2019.

How this is going to affect the Star Wars sequels release dates? Disney just had a lot of success with a Star Wars Holiday release. Are they prepared to throw-down with the Sith Lord Cameron?

 

[Sithborg]

Star Wars is moving back to May with Episode VIII.

 

[Snow Queen]

Won't affect them in 2017, they're slotted for May. However, if both were to come out in the same month one year, I'm inclined to place my bets on Star Wars. Followups and spinoffs won't make as much as TFA, but I also don't think Avatar 2, 3 and 4 are going to light the box office on fire like the first. I'm sure they'll make their budget back and a nice profit, probably all cross the billion mark, but I'm skeptical past that.

 

[MistaBinks]

I would prefer SW continue in December. Six months is too short between Rogue One and EVIII. One film a year in December sounds good.

 

[Tony Stark]

but 2nd weekend is the key. You have to remember Avatar has an incredible -1.8% 2nd weekend drop. Even the most optimistic views know that TFA's drop will be bigger than that. Having said that, TFA has the fortune of the "brand name" going for it, and that's not to be underestimated.

All in all, I'd say it's a shoe in for no. 2, and depending on the hold Avatar is in the crosshairs, and so is 3B WW.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

but 2nd weekend is the key. You have to remember Avatar has an incredible -1.8% 2nd weekend drop. Even the most optimistic views know that TFA's drop will be bigger than that. Having said that, TFA has the fortune of the "brand name" going for it, and that's not to be underestimated.

All in all, I'd say it's a shoe in for no. 2, and depending on the hold Avatar is in the crosshairs, and so is 3B WW.

It will drop much more in terms of percentage. TFA will still probably double what Avatar did in its second weekend. Avatar make $75m in its second weekend. TFA could make $150m. TFA is dropping from a much higher cliff. It should pass Avatar domestically without must difficulty if it crosses $500m in 10 days, like it should.

 

[Tony Stark]

So regarding the Box Office for the sequels as things are planned now the goal as per James Cameron is to have Avatar 2 Christmas 2017, Avatar 3 Christmas 2018, Avatar 4 Christmas 2019.

How this is going to affect the Star Wars sequels release dates? Disney just had a lot of success with a Star Wars Holiday release. Are they prepared to throw-down with the Sith Lord Cameron?

Personally unless JC has something spectacular up his sleeves, Avatar is not a film that ever should have been made into a sequel. I have a feeling Avatar 2 could go down with the Matrix as worst and most unnecessary follow-ups to a popular sci-fi series.

Not only did TFA successfully add on a new chapter to a saga that was complete on it's own, they nicely set-up the next few films.

The appeal of Avatar, is that it was groundbreaking in special effects, and nothing since has come close to matching it's visual appeal. I don't think there's anything in the story that people would anticipate another one.

 

[Tony Stark]

It will drop much more in terms of percentage. TFA will still probably double what Avatar did in its second weekend. Avatar make $75m in its second weekend. TFA could make $150m. TFA is dropping from a much higher cliff.

Very true, it's just a question of how the legs down the road level out or not. We'll see. With the kind of opening it had, Avatar is in sight, along with 3B.

 

[Sithborg]

Rule #1: Don't dismiss James Cameron.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Very true, it's just a question of how the legs down the road level out or not. We'll see. With the kind of opening it had, Avatar is in sight, along with 3B.

Domestically yes due to the crazy head start it's had over Avatar. I'm still not convinced SW has the following to gross 3 billion WW.

Avatar grossed 2 billion alone from overseas recipients that is insane. About double the next (non-cameron film) on the list.

In a lot of non-western countries SW7 is being markerted as any other blockbuster it doesn't have that huge nostalgia factor in the west as the original trilogy wasn't even released in some of those countries, mainly China.

I give SW 7 60-40 it will take the Domestic crown and 30-70 it will take the WW crown.