The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[The Chris]

Oh, did that come out on a Tuesday? That makes sense then.

Yeah instead of releasing it on wednesday july 4th they released it on the day before.

 

[danoyse]

t:

Did you have a good time danoyse?

Nah, waste of time really...

Still glorious after 4 viewings. Although I'm taking a little break before he next round, I don't want the thrill to wear off.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Nah, waste of time really...

Still glorious after 4 viewings. Although I'm taking a little break before he next round, I don't want the thrill to wear off.

When the thrill is gone, danoyse will be gone.

 

[Iceman]

Jurassic World made $652m domestically and after a lower opening weekend was getting $25m and $24m on its first Monday & Tuesday. Just puts into perspective how crazy these SW numbers are.

 

[Iceman]

How many big movies have come out on a Tuesday I wonder?

If ASM has(had) the record then by extension/definition, none.

 

[danoyse]

When the thrill is gone, danoyse will be gone.

I won’t let that happen...

 

[DKDetective]

I have trouble seeing anything higher than 2 billion as any possibility. Which would still be beyond amazing in the grand scheme.

Operating under the best case scenario I can see 800m domestic and 1.2 billion OS, which would be a higher OS total than Jurassic World and only behind Titanic and Avatar.

So that's the 2 billion right there but that's still under optimal conditions.

I find your lack of faith disturbing. I can't wait for you to join 8ulk and Bruce_Begins in the horribly wrong club.

More seriously, this movie is off the charts and is not following any conventional patterns. A December film has never had this type of opening before and TFA has two months before another big, competitive tentpole comes along. Given its high CinemaScore, which is particularly strong with the teenage and female demographics (I thought it would have skewed older and male), we have no idea what sort of legs this film will have, domestically or internationally. Time to sit back, stop making conservative predictions, and just enjoy the ride.

 

[spiderman2]

So regarding the Box Office for the sequels as things are planned now the goal as per James Cameron is to have Avatar 2 Christmas 2017, Avatar 3 Christmas 2018, Avatar 4 Christmas 2019.

How this is going to affect the Star Wars sequels release dates? Disney just had a lot of success with a Star Wars Holiday release. Are they prepared to throw-down with the Sith Lord Cameron?

I think star wars can throw down with any one and a lot of people say avatar is overratied so I don't see avatar 2 or 3 or 4 making has much has avatar 1.

 

[spiderman2]

A lot of people think the this movie is going to make like 150 this weekend. Any changes this movie can make 100 million in its 3erd weekend?

 

[jmc]

$150m would mean it would have to have no more than a 40% drop. Not impossible but I'd say very, very unlikely.

 

[spiderman2]

Domestically yes due to the crazy head start it's had over Avatar. I'm still not convinced SW has the following to gross 3 billion WW.

Avatar grossed 2 billion alone from overseas recipients that is insane. About double the next (non-cameron film) on the list.

In a lot of non-western countries SW7 is being markerted as any other blockbuster it doesn't have that huge nostalgia factor in the west as the original trilogy wasn't even released in some of those countries, mainly China.

I give SW 7 60-40 it will take the Domestic crown and 30-70 it will take the WW crown.

Its going to be hard for it to take the WW crown. I mean if you look at the number 1 and number 2 movie WW there is about a 500 million gap. That is a really big gap. If any movie can do it I would say it is star wars. If this movie doesn't do it I think 1 of 2 things happened.

1. It is years and years before a movie can do it has it will take more inflation and the international market continuing to get bigger and bigger for a movie to pass it.

2. Some movie comes out of no where like avatar did. Avatar felt like it had very little hype leading up to it and even when it came out it didn't do crazy number day 1 it just made money for so long with out having the normal big drop off like most movies do.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I find your lack of faith disturbing. I can't wait for you to join 8ulk and Bruce_Begins in the horribly wrong club.

More seriously, this movie is off the charts and is not following any conventional patterns. A December film has never had this type of opening before and TFA has two months before another big, competitive tentpole comes along. Given its high CinemaScore, which is particularly strong with the teenage and female demographics (I thought it would have skewed older and male), we have no idea what sort of legs this film will have, domestically or internationally. Time to sit back, stop making conservative predictions, and just enjoy the ride.

I deal in fact not faith my friend.

I believe my numbers are pretty representative of a higher end for this film. I can't believe we're at a point where predicting 2 billion is considered low-balling now?

Two big things will help determine the ceiling for the film how it holds up next week especially and then in subsequent weeks and how it does in China.

To even get to 2 billion this film is going to have to do amazingly overseas.

 

[smappy45]

Okay, so domestic is not a problem right? Avatar's number is definitely toast in that department. It's the overseas number we have to worry about. It is going very well, indeed, but seems like it's going well just like any other blockbuster movies, nothing record-breaking about it.

It's like 90% of the population in the US knows Star Wars. But overseas, esp. in Asia, seems like only 40% of the population knows it.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Okay, so domestic is not a problem right? Avatar's number is definitely toast in that department. It's the overseas number we have to worry about. It is going very well, indeed, but seems like it's going well just like any other blockbuster movies, nothing record-breaking about it.

It's like 90% of the population in the US knows Star Wars. But overseas, esp. in Asia, seems like only 40% of the population knows it.

Well yeah that's the thing. It's being marketed in a lot of those places like any other blockbuster has FF7, JW, Transformers etc. not the "the characters you've all grown up with are back" vibe in North America.

A lot of people will have to fall in love with Star Wars for the first time.

 

[jmc]

Keep this in mind too people. The two highest grossing films of all time also opened in December.

 

[Super_Child]

Keep this in mind too people. The two highest grossing films of all time also opened in December.

Are there any Tuesday estimates floating around yet?

 

[spider-neil]

I wonder if they will push back the 2017 release back to December because of the amazing numbers for TFA in December.

 

[sportjames23]

This article says TFA is on pace to beat Avatar:


http://news.yahoo.com/star-wars-on-pace-to-overtake-avatar-as-082931637.html

 

[InCali]

This is what Gone with the Wind was like huh? or at least the closest we will ever see any movie get.

I don't think you can adequately compare anything today with Gone with the Wind. It was released in a time where there were very few entertainment options, virtually no home theater technology, and it was re-released so many times, people have lost count. They also didn't churn out movies like they do today so the same level of competition wasn't there.

I just take each movie for what it is. The box office comparisons are fun for someone like me who is constantly running numbers through their head, but the real test of a movie is how good it is.

 

[InCali]

Keep this in mind too people. The two highest grossing films of all time also opened in December.

Bingo. That's the thing. Those were movies that had unbelievable legs, but didn't open in the stratosphere like TFA did. We will see how it holds up. TFA has the advantage right now and if it can maintain good legs Int'l, you never know what will happen. Also, for Titanic, it had a major re-release and that gives it an advantage at the box office. I'll be interested to compare first release vs first release when all is said and done.

 

[InCali]

Well yeah that's the thing. It's being marketed in a lot of those places like any other blockbuster has FF7, JW, Transformers etc. not the "the characters you've all grown up with are back" vibe in North America.

A lot of people will have to fall in love with Star Wars for the first time.

A lot of people already did "A long time ago in a....". It can easily happen again "far far away".

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Unless the film has production delays I don't see why they would push it back to December. Like over achievers like Avengers and the very first Star Wars movie the sequel is guaranteed not to do as well in North America. That doesn't mean that it won't be great and people won't like it that just means that the first maximized the audience and there is nowhere to go but down. People were shocked Age of Ultron made less but Age of Ultron was always guaranteed to make less.

 

[InCali]

Unless the film has production delays I don't see why they would push it back to December. Like over achievers like Avengers and the very first Star Wars movie the sequel is guaranteed not to do as well in North America. That doesn't mean that it won't be great and people won't like it that just means that the first maximized the audience and there is nowhere to go but down. People were shocked Age of Ultron made less but Age of Ultron was always guaranteed to make less.

Generally speaking, that is true. There are, of course, exceptions, but when something opens THAT huge, it's almost a certainty. The Hunger Games and Catching Fire, for example, bucked that trend.

 

[smappy45]

A lot of people will have to fall in love with Star Wars for the first time.

So the real question is, is SW:TFA watchable/enjoyable for audience who has no knowledge of Star Wars and have never seen the previous six films before?

 

[Iceman]

AoU was expected to do less domestically almost regardless of how well reviewed/received it was (but could have got a lot closer had it been well received) but I think it could have done a fair bit more overseas if it had had a better reception.

And TFA is definitely tracking ahead of Avatar's domestic total just comparing it to how much more it is doing compared to the other 2 films that got in the $600ms. Can't really compare daily figures directly to Avatar due to how atypical its distribution of returns was. We don't have much of an idea exactly how good TFA's legs are yet beyond being good. At this time of year with such little competition it could hang around and keep putting up dollars at a rate somewhere between big summer blockbusters and Avatar/Titanic. Who knows exactly where it will fall on that spectrum, and with such a huge opening, anything better than summer blockbuster legs is already gonna mean crazy final domestic numbers.