The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[PacificBoy]

I just had a look at IMDB and it seems TFA has a decent time frame of 20 days for a proper tilt at the box office in China, before Kung Fu Panda 3 opens. The only likely competition during the period is a Zhang Ziyi-led rom-com, but from the trailer it looks like it features a lesbian pairing, so it probably wouldn't go down with the still largely conservative crowd.

It's more or less left to the Chinese public to want to see the movie at this point.

 

[InCali]

Sometimes we (esp "I") get bogged down in details when predicting box office numbers and there's a very simple way of looking at this with regard to TFA passing Avatar in US/Canada.

It opened at just about 250M. Avatar ended its first run at 750M. Given the release date, the number of people who want to see it again and again, and the lack of any really compelling competition for quite some time, is there anyone out there who "really" believes TFA won't EASILY get a 3x multiplier?

 

[InCali]

So the real question is, is SW:TFA watchable/enjoyable for audience who has no knowledge of Star Wars and have never seen the previous six films before?

My answer is "yes" and I don't think there's any doubt about it. The themes, in general, are very similar to episode 4 which kicked things off for a lot of us.

 

[Iceman]

So the real question is, is SW:TFA watchable/enjoyable for audience who has no knowledge of Star Wars and have never seen the previous six films before?

This one is yes, good time to get into it. Doubt I'd say the same for VIII or IX though.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

I think The Force Awakens is a better jumping in point that either IV or I. I sucks and IV is a bit dated. I know lots of people that are turned off by the dated look of older movies. Getting introduced to the characters in VII with the new look but old feel is a great way to get them to want to learn more.

 

[Iceman]

Sometimes we (esp "I") get bogged down in details when predicting box office numbers and there's a very simple way of looking at this with regard to TFA passing Avatar in US/Canada.

It opened at just about 250M. Avatar ended its first run at 750M. Given the release date, the number of people who want to see it again and again, and the lack of any really compelling competition for quite some time, is there anyone out there who "really" believes TFA won't EASILY get a 3x multiplier?

Yes that route should make it easier for people to visualise TFA beating Avatar's domestic.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree that people are overthinking this film's box office. It doesn't need anywhere near Avatar legs to even reach 800 million. It doesn't need a tiny second weekend drop like Avatar, it simply needs to hold up decently for a blockbuster during the Holidays. It's more Lord of the Rings than Avatar.

Avatar had near a 10.0 multipler and reached 750+mil, TFA will hit 800million if it has a 3.23 multiplier.

 

[InCali]

Sometimes we (esp "I") get bogged down in details when predicting box office numbers and there's a very simple way of looking at this with regard to TFA passing Avatar in US/Canada.

It opened at just about 250M. Avatar ended its first run at 750M. Given the release date, the number of people who want to see it again and again, and the lack of any really compelling competition for quite some time, is there anyone out there who "really" believes TFA won't EASILY get a 3x multiplier?

Yes that route should make it easier for people to visualise TFA beating Avatar's domestic.

And to add a little perspective, the first Avengers movie opened in May, had much more summer competition (after 3 weeks it had MIB3, Snow White and the Huntsman, and Prometheus lined up), and still managed a 3X+ multiplier.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Generally speaking, that is true. There are, of course, exceptions, but when something opens THAT huge, it's almost a certainty. The Hunger Games and Catching Fire, for example, bucked that trend.

Yes what Catching Fire did was great but the first Hunger Games didn't do over 600-700mil so it wasn't as difficult to retain the audience. Episode 8 is in for a fall and how far that fall is depends on many factors. Competition, quality and marketing.

 

[InCali]

Yes what Catching Fire did was great but the first Hunger Games didn't do over 600-700mil so it wasn't as difficult to retain the audience. Episode 8 is in for a fall and how far that fall is depends on many factors. Competition, quality and marketing.

Yup. Although there ain't a lot out there that goes that stratos (600-700M) on us. 400M + is a pretty impressive haul.

I don't see SW8 beating out SW7 unless something really extraordinary happens. Maybe it goes bananas overseas or something like that. For sure not DOM. I frankly thought SW5 (ESB) was a much better movie than SW4, but it did less at the BO.

It'll be the same with JW2, but maybe not GotG2 (which has a lower bar set).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Oh yeah no way does the Jurassic World sequel make 650-700mil. We will see about GOTG 2. I thought Iron Man 2 was a lock to outgross the first and it didn't.

 

[InCali]

Oh yeah no way does the Jurassic World sequel make 650-700mil. We will see about GOTG 2. I thought Iron Man 2 was a lock to outgross the first and it didn't.

Yeah cause it wasn't as good. I could see SW8 going in the 600-700 range though. Maybe even a little bit more if it's really, really good and it "could" really take off internationally.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yeah cause it wasn't as good. I could see SW8 going in the 600-700 range though. Maybe even a little bit more if it's really, really good and it "could" really take off internationally.

I think it has a good chance of maintaining outside of North America.

Not trying to Jinx TFA but it would be fun if it hit 900mil plus in North America.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I see a 25% drop for JW2 (487 m) similar to AOU.

And a 15% drop for SW8 (~800 m) though the drop could be worse if the quality is lacking.

GotG2 will drop 15% but Avatar 2 is going to drop like a rock, at least 33%. The novelty of 3D and Pandora is gone.

 

[InCali]

I see a 25% drop for JW2 (487 m) similar to AOU.

And a 15% drop for SW8 (~800 m) though the drop could be worse if the quality is lacking.

GotG2 will drop 15% but Avatar 2 is going to drop like a rock, at least 33%. The novelty of 3D and Pandora is gone.

Maybe it's just because GotG was probably my favorite MCU movie, but I think it can maintain or maybe beat the first one if it's really, really good. I think there's so much goodwill out there for it (maybe mostly coming from me and I'm seeing this with rose colored glasses), that the opening will definitely be higher. The legs will depend on how good it is and the competition.

Man, you have SW7 WAY up there. I hope you're right.

 

[Iceman]

So if this new trilogy of Star Wars films are all going to be absolute box office monsters domestically, I wonder how the Justice League and Infinity Wars will do. Even if they can't get anywhere close to VIII & IX, the top 10/20 are likely going to be unrecognisable once the current Marvel/DC/Star Wars film cycle is complete in 2019.

 

[mclay18]

Unless the film has production delays I don't see why they would push it back to December. Like over achievers like Avengers and the very first Star Wars movie the sequel is guaranteed not to do as well in North America.

I think Avatar 2 will get delayed again due to actor availability (Zoe Saldana starts filming GOTG 2 in February). Or it won't be ready for its planned December 2017 release.

If that happens, Disney can easily move Episode VIII to December -- just because they can and they know the fans will turn up. They didn't just slot TFA for mid-December, but the first spinoff Rogue One for the same weekend next year. I can see December inheriting the "Star Wars month" moniker from May.

 

[Iceman]

It can be the official Xmas film for the next few years.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Are there any Tuesday estimates floating around yet?

$37.88 million, per deadline. So sounds like no Tuesday bump. Would still be a record Tuesday tho.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie made 40mil on Monday not 8mil, an increase was never in the cards.

 

[InCali]

$37.88 million, per deadline. So sounds like no Tuesday bump. Would still be a record Tuesday tho.

So, now on to the next round of guessing without really knowing anything. As was pointed out, Wed/Thur typically drop from M/T. Do people think we will see a significant drop for today and tomorrow? Today is sort of like a Friday and tomorrow is a holiday. Maybe if Xmas is getting jammed, people will decide to go on the 24th? Predictions for Xmas day?

I think we'll see a bit of a drop today, but less than normal and that Thursday will be up from Wednesday.

Also, the early estimates have been pretty consistently low. Wouldn't you say?

 

[Iceman]

Of the 2 current top Tuesday numbers, TAS did $35m but openned on that Tuesday and Transformers did $27.85m but opened on the day before. Jurassic World in 3rd at $24.3m is well clear of the other films that didn't open on a Tuesday or Monday and is still such a long way off this projected Star Wars figure!

 

[Iceman]

So, now on to the next round of guessing without really knowing anything. As was pointed out, Wed/Thur typically drop from M/T. Do people think we will see a significant drop for today and tomorrow? Today is sort of like a Friday and tomorrow is a holiday. Maybe if Xmas is getting jammed, people will decide to go on the 24th? Predictions for Xmas day?

I think we'll see a bit of a drop today, but less than normal and that Thursday will be up from Wednesday.

I expect small drops every successive day ahead of a HUGE Xmas Day. Xmas Eve I think a lot of theaters close early.

 

[InCali]

OK. Time fer sum cipherin'

248M - Opening
40M - Monday
38M - Tuesday

326M - Total

If TFA can average 37M over the next 2 days (W-Th), that is 400M in 7 days. Even if it doesn't get there, it will be very, very close. 500M over the Xmas weekend is a done deal. 550M is definitely in play with advance sales and Dec 25 coming up.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So, now on to the next round of guessing without really knowing anything. As was pointed out, Wed/Thur typically drop from M/T. Do people think we will see a significant drop for today and tomorrow? Today is sort of like a Friday and tomorrow is a holiday. Maybe if Xmas is getting jammed, people will decide to go on the 24th? Predictions for Xmas day?

I think we'll see a bit of a drop today, but less than normal and that Thursday will be up from Wednesday.

Also, the early estimates have been pretty consistently low. Wouldn't you say?

Depends on who is doing the estimating. The Mouse has been low balling but not the industry in general, at least not that I've seen

I wouldn't be surprised if it went up Thursday, or if it just drifted down over the next two days before Xmas. As to the 25th, I dunno, $50 million maybe?