The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see The 5th Wave and 13 Hours doing well but Ride Along 2, Kung Fu Panda and The Revenant should do well enough. Kung Fu Panda is definitely going to be number one during it's weekend.

 

[Octoberist]

I agree.

Actually, 13 Hours should've been like a Feb/March release.

 

[InCali]

How much longer do you guys think that the movie can stay number 1 at Domestic BO? This week and next week I think FA is good, but then you got the fifth Wave, Ride Along, 13 Hours, and then the week latter you got Kung Fu Panda.

I think you're pretty much on target. I think Panda is a sure #1. The weekend of the 22nd looks like it may be a crapshoot.

EDIT: I didn't realize that Ride Along 2 came out on the 15th. That could conceivably take #1.

Still, that gives TFA two weekends with a BO of well in excess of 100M. Add the mid-weekly totals for 3 weeks and you get 745 (total after 1/3) +110 (1/8 and 1/15 weekends) + 100+?? (3 weeks of M-Th totals). That brings us to the full weeks of 1/22 and 1/29.

 

[InCali]

TFA has outdrawn Avatar by about 378M at the same time in its run (through 15 days). As of now, the gap is still widening.

 

[Steyin]

Went again last night and it was still a sold out show. Amazing.

 

[TheVileOne]

I will be curious to see how many actual domestic tickets were sold for the film by the end of its run.

 

[InCali]

I will be curious to see how many actual domestic tickets were sold for the film by the end of its run.

i think Japan actually tracks that, but I'm sure we can get close by getting an estimate of what ticket prices are. It would actually be interesting to keep this stat instead of adjusted income.

 

[InCali]

This is an interesting chart (The Numbers). I remember looking this over when TDK was in the middle of it's run. What it shows is that TFA hit Titanic's entire first run numbers by day 12. By day 17/18 (that 150M later), it will do the same for Avatar.

It gives a good visual representation of a movie's performance.

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/comparisons/All-Time-Top-Grossing-Films

EDIT: I wish they'd carry out the days a little longer. They'll have to add another 200M to the grid (vertically) in the next week.

 

[danoyse]

Went again last night and it was still a sold out show. Amazing.

Our show was sold out today, as was the show after ours.

 

[Sithborg]

Anecdotal evidence: My show earlier today was PACKED. TFA is down to 2 screens, but I think those screens are going to be packed.

 

[Marvolo]

It still has 18 show times at my local carmike.

 

[sueb1863]

I thought it wasn't losing any screens this week?

By the way, I enjoyed the movie, but I sure didn't think it'd be getting this response! Is anybody else just a little flummoxed at how wildly popular this movie seems to be? Or is it just me...I mean, this is looking sort of like the response the first SW got in 1977...

 

[Marvolo]

I thought it wasn't losing any screens this week?

By the way, I enjoyed the movie, but I sure didn't think it'd be getting this response! Is anybody else just a little flummoxed at how wildly popular this movie seems to be? Or is it just me...I mean, this is looking sort of like the response the first SW got in 1977...

One of the most popular franchises in the world, that completely altered the film industry....popular...who would have guessed?!

Seriously tho, this response was expected. Well, I should say this response was always possible. The star wars fan base is massive, and it always supports a star wars film. The fact TFA turned out to be so good guaranteed repeat viewings. And Disney's unavoidable marketing made sure that the massive fan base and the general public came out to support the film.

 

[danoyse]

I thought it wasn't losing any screens this week?

By the way, I enjoyed the movie, but I sure didn't think it'd be getting this response! Is anybody else just a little flummoxed at how wildly popular this movie seems to be? Or is it just me...I mean, this is looking sort of like the response the first SW got in 1977...

One of the most popular franchises in the world, that completely altered the film industry....popular...who would have guessed?!

Seriously tho, this response was expected.

The difference this time being that the prequels didn’t have this response. I saw the midnight show of TPM and by the next morning it was all over the radio that people were hating it.

This time around, the response it overwhelmingly positive, and even people who aren’t fans are turning up to see it because everyone is recommending it. I know two people who didn’t plan on seeing the movie at all who are going now because all of their friends have been raving about it.

That, I have not seen since the days of the OT.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think people were really hungry for a Star Wars film in the same vain as the originals. That doesn't mean that any old film would do and that the film didn't have to be good. I think people liked Star Wars because of it's fun adventurous tone and charming characters. I think if you are going to make Star Wars darker dry and political and not about personalities then really strong writing has to be there.

 

[danoyse]

I have friends who brought kids as young as 3 to see this, and they loved it as much as their kids did. That’s crossover appeal right there.

 

[mclay18]

I thought it wasn't losing any screens this week?

It didn't lose any locations in its third weekend. If it loses locations, that means they're not playing TFA anymore. (They lost a few screens to make room for the new releases, but still playing the movie.) The theater I work at trimmed down the number of auditoriums it was playing in. When it opened two weeks ago, TFA was playing in five out of 13 auditoriums. Now it's trimmed to three, but the film's still bringing in the crowds.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I have friends who brought kids as young as 3 to see this, and they loved it as much as their kids did. That’s crossover appeal right there.

Star Wars:

Bring me your young, your old. Your women, your men, your children. But leave your racist and sexist at home. This is not a movie they will enjoy.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I can't imagine bringing a 3 year old to the theater to see a movie. My brother and his wife took their 2, 4 and 5 year old sons to see Minions and said that the 2 year old was as good as he could be. Which probably meant he didn't start crying or yelling too much. He just likes switching whose lap he sits on I guess. I love that kid to death, he's my honorary baby but I wouldn't be caught dead taking him to a movie.

 

[danoyse]

I can't imagine bringing a 3 year old to the theater to see a movie. My brother and his wife took their 2, 4 and 5 year old sons to see Minions and said that the 2 year old was as good as he could be. Which probably meant he didn't start crying or yelling too much. He just likes switching whose lap he sits on I guess. I love that kid to death, he's my honorary baby but I wouldn't be caught dead taking him to a movie.

My parents took me to see the original SW in 1977 when I was 3. My mom says today that they took me because they thought I’d like the robots, and they wound up creating a monster.

My littlest nephew just turned 3, but we didn’t take him to Star Wars. He’s seen Minions, Inside Out, and The Peanuts Movie in the theater, but at early shows that have tons of preschoolers, so he fit right in. He’s good for about an hour before he wants to get up and switch laps or whatever.

It really depends on the kid. My friend brought her 3-year-old and she said they had the best time. He thought it was all real and was going nuts for the whole thing.

We brought my older nephew, who’s about to turn 8, opening weekend, and he was great. I think we might take him again for his birthday this month.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It really does depend on the kid. My mother always said I was the perfect child at the theater growing up. First time I went I was apparently 3. She said I was really into the movies. My brother was far more fussy.

 

[danoyse]

It really does depend on the kid. My mother always said I was the perfect child at the theater growing up. First time I went I was apparently 3. She said I was really into the movies. My brother was far more fussy.

Yeah, my folks said I had a really good attention span at that age. They’d already seen Star Wars, so they thought I’d be into it, so they brought me the second time.

My mom said I used to get so upset whenever we went back to the movie theater and I found out we weren’t there to see Star Wars again. I just assumed that the only movie there was.

 

[Vincanws]

I think people were really hungry for a Star Wars film in the same vain as the originals. That doesn't mean that any old film would do and that the film didn't have to be good. I think people liked Star Wars because of it's fun adventurous tone and charming characters. I think if you are going to make Star Wars darker dry and political and not about personalities then really strong writing has to be there.

That's why those repeat complaints of the call-backs to the original Star Wars are annoying? Not so much for stating the obvious, but that clearly it's part of why people are going back is because it reminds them of what they liked about the OT.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, my folks said I had a really good attention span at that age. They’d already seen Star Wars, so they thought I’d be into it, so they brought me the second time.

My mom said I used to get so upset whenever we went back to the movie theater and I found out we weren’t there to see Star Wars again. I just assumed that the only movie there was.

Even at three, you were a genius. I now have this image of a little girl having to be dragged past the door leading to the theater showing Star Wars. t:

 

[danoyse]

Even at three, you were a genius. I now have this image of a little girl having to be dragged past the door leading to the theater showing Star Wars. t:

And my mother was a saint...

My mom joked today that the movie just never went away. They were always re-releasing it, so whenever we went to the movies it was always playing. I remember leaving once, when I was about 5 or so, and my mom clearly saying, “OK, now that’s it. Next time we’re seeing a different movie!”

We definitely saw other movies - I remember seeing a few Disney re-releases (because that’s all Disney had back then), The Muppet Movie, and Superman. Hell, I even remember going to see the pilot to Buck Rogers, because it was shown in movies before the TV show aired.

But then we just saw Star Wars again. I think the last time I saw it in theaters before it finally came on TV was in 1982.