The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[I SEE SPIDEY]

This Monday figure is the one I've been looking forward to most. With the holidays over it will give some info to what we can expect for the rest of the run.

Same.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

This Monday figure is the one I've been looking forward to most. With the holidays over it will give some info to what we can expect for the rest of the run.

I'd put the over/under for today at $8 million. I'd take the over but not by a lot.

 

[Vincanws]

Looks like the weekend figure went up from $88m: $90,241,673. Every little million helps.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'd put the over/under for today at $8 million. I'd take the over but not by a lot.

I thinking over 8.0 mil. I'm thinking 8.5-9.2 mil.

 

[InCali]

I'd put the over/under for today at $8 million. I'd take the over but not by a lot.

Optimistically "easily" over. t:

Avatar dropped to 8M on the same day. Is that how everyone got their #?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I figured this week (M-Th) would do something like $32 million & just divided by four.

 

[InCali]

I figured this week (M-Th) would do something like $32 million & just divided by four.

Avatar did about 29.4. The differential between the box office numbers is shrinking pretty dramatically......if it plays out to 32M.

Fun times for geeks of all kinds.....

 

[MrSpyder]

It should pass Avatar within today or tomorrow for number #1 domestically.

 

[mclay18]

Still unreal that TFA has already crossed $700M domestic. Now I think it has a shot at $1 billion domestically.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

I'm guessing $10m tonight.

 

[spiderman2]

Ah....I see. Yes. I misunderstood. If it does Avatar numbers from here on out (after last weekend including re-release), it would end up at 742M (current) + 372M or 1.114B.

Edit: Check that. At day 17, Avatar was at 352 and ended up with 760 or a difference of 408M. Yikes, if TFA were to do those kind of numbers, it would end up at 1.15B. That's just sooooo crazy sounding......that would be maintaining the 390M lead it has as of today.

A tidy sum......

It's hard to believe that's going to happen, but you never know. It includes Avatar's second release, but that only added about 10M to the coffers.

MMM that is interesting

From the last few days, it looks like TFA is starting to hold just a little bit stronger OS than in the US/Canada (EDIT: TFA probably wasn't as heavily front loaded OS as it was US/Canada and it might just be catching on.). At first glance it doesn't look to be statistically significant because the sample size is pretty small and the difference isn't that great from the numbers I crunched. That being said, it's fair to say that it's holding AT LEAST as well OS as it is DOM. Last weekend's drop was a shade better than 30% OS compared to about 40% DOM. Here's an article from deadline.

http://deadline.com/2016/01/star-wa...daddys-home-international-results-1201675263/

China could move the percentage of the OS/DOM split from about 48/52 (DOM/OS) to about 42/58 (DOM/OS) if you assume 2.3B without China and about 2.6B with it (300M BO take in China).

If 1.1B is possible in the US/Canada, 1.2B is possible OS (without China) for a total of 2.3B. That's a fairly optimistic number, but not impossible (IMO).

EDIT: After writing the above, something occurred to me. (There are a lot of suppositions in the following, so beware!!)

If TFA were to be able to get to 1.1B and IF it were really starting to catch on in the OS markets (as evidenced by some unusual increases noted in the deadline article) and IF you ended up seeing something along the lines of a traditional 40/60 split, that would put TFA around 2.75B WW. There's a lot of guesswork here, but stranger things have happened.

That is interesting I am starting to think at worst causes that the movie makes 1 billion USA and 1.1 outside not counting china for 2.1 billion+ 300m in china for 2.4 billion. Best cause I am starting to think 1.2 billion USA and 1.3 outside not counting china so 2.3billion +500m in china for 2.8 final.

 

[spiderman2]

I'm guessing $10m tonight.

Would that be a record? Last Monday was 30m right? So that would be a 66% drop sounds high.

I figured this week (M-Th) would do something like $32 million & just divided by four.

Would that be good? Sounds low but I don't really now how these things work.

 

[spiderman2]

How long should it take to get at 900m USA? What about 2 billion WW?

 

[InCali]

MMM that is interesting



That is interesting I am starting to think at worst causes that the movie makes 1 billion USA and 1.1 outside not counting china for 2.1 billion+ 300m in china for 2.4 billion. Best cause I am starting to think 1.2 billion USA and 1.3 outside not counting china so 2.3billion +500m in china for 2.8 final.

Like most people who have numbers running through their heads, I'm a little bit fickle when it comes to new data. Awhile back, I put the over under at about 2.2-2.3. Now, I'm thinking the over under is about 2.45B (with big China numbers at about 300M mas o menos).

The next couple of weeks will tell. 60% is a terrific hold for a movie that opened up in the stratosphere. JW and The Avengers both dropped about 50% first week. TFA dropped only 40% with a WAY larger opening. A second 40% drop also beat both by a large margin. There aren't any other comparable movies. By that I mean nothing has behaved like TFA at the BO. Avatar had lower drops, but garnered way less then 1/3 of TFA's opening weekend #s.

Time'll tell and everyone wants to be the oracle. We keep thinking that the next day will tell, but each day brings new information. That being said, as time goes on, possibilities generally shrink.

Your Friendly Neighborhood Statistician.

 

[Silver Surfer]

The date for Episode 8 is set for May but I think Disney should release Episode 9 in December. Considering the fact that Infinity War 2 comes out in May, Disney will just be hurting itself.

 

[JaD]

It should pass Avatar within today or tomorrow for number #1 domestically.

Whew, in just barely over 2 weeks. That is just banana sandwich.

 

[ares834]

Would that be a record? Last Monday was 30m right? So that would be a 66% drop sounds high.

It's going to be high.

The weekend burned a lot a of demand. But, more importantly, a lot of people had last Monday off and returned to school/work today.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The date for Episode 8 is set for May but I think Disney should release Episode 9 in December. Considering the fact that Infinity War 2 comes out in May, Disney will just be hurting itself.

What's the plan regarding the gaps between sequels? Is Disney going to do every 2 years or go back to every 3 years like the original series?

If EVIII comes out in 2017, Episode EIX would be in 2019 which would have December locked in for either Avatar 3 (or 2 if things get delayed).

It'd actually be in Disney's interests for the Avatar sequels to be successful too as they've put in million into that world of Avatar Disney park they're building.

If 8 comes out in 2020 than that might not be an issue for a December release.

 

[Snow Queen]

What's the plan regarding the gaps between sequels? Is Disney going to do every 2 years or go back to every 3 years like the original series?

If EVIII comes out in 2017, Episode EIX would be in 2019 which would have December locked in for either Avatar 3 (or 2 if things get delayed).

It'd actually be in Disney's interests for the Avatar sequels to be successful too as they've put in million into that world of Avatar Disney park they're building.

If 8 comes out in 2020 than that might not be an issue for a December release.

Rogue One in 2016, VIII in May 2017, Han Solo in 2018, IX in 2019.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Rogue One in 2016, VIII in May 2017, Han Solo in 2018, IX in 2019.

Then yeah I can't see them moving back to December for the reasons I mentioned.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Solo is set for May 2018 as well.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's going to be high.

The weekend burned a lot a of demand. But, more importantly, a lot of people had last Monday off and returned to school/work today.

Yep. The film will still do well because of good word of mouth but the weekday numbers will be normal now.

I was thinking that the football game might have hurt it a little on Sunday so maybe it's Sunday to Monday drop will be a tad better than what I am thinking.

 

[spiderman2]

Like most people who have numbers running through their heads, I'm a little bit fickle when it comes to new data. Awhile back, I put the over under at about 2.2-2.3. Now, I'm thinking the over under is about 2.45B (with big China numbers at about 300M mas o menos).

The next couple of weeks will tell. 60% is a terrific hold for a movie that opened up in the stratosphere. JW and The Avengers both dropped about 50% first week. TFA dropped only 40% with a WAY larger opening. A second 40% drop also beat both by a large margin. There aren't any other comparable movies. By that I mean nothing has behaved like TFA at the BO. Avatar had lower drops, but garnered way less then 1/3 of TFA's opening weekend #s.

Time'll tell and everyone wants to be the oracle. We keep thinking that the next day will tell, but each day brings new information. That being said, as time goes on, possibilities generally shrink.

Your Friendly Neighborhood Statistician.

About the 40% drop what would be a good drop this week? How much do movies tend to drop around this time?

It's going to be high.

The weekend burned a lot a of demand. But, more importantly, a lot of people had last Monday off and returned to school/work today.

Yeah I get that just thought it would still maybe drop a little less.

 

[spiderman2]

Yep. The film will still do well because of good word of mouth but the weekday numbers will be normal now.

I was thinking that the football game might have hurt it a little on Sunday so maybe it's Sunday to Monday drop will be a tad better than what I am thinking.

About the football game the NFL playoffs start next week.

 

[titansupes]

Solo is set for May 2018 as well.

Did you just call him "Solo"?