The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[jokesonm3]

As stupid as this sounds (even by my standards) woud Kung Fu Panda 3 be a problem for this film in China?

Since they both open in China this month.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Kung Pu Panda 3 will absolutely be huge comp for Star Wars.

 

[rashad]

On the boxoffice forums they say initial presales have been underwhelming thus far.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

On the boxoffice forums they say initial presales have been underwhelming thus far.

If that is the case they might just have to grow the franchise in China.

 

[rashad]

If that is the case they might just have to grow the franchise in China.

That's assuming they take to the franchise at all.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That's assuming they take to the franchise at all.

True. Maybe they just won't care to a huge degree.

 

[InCali]

I really would like to see more web sites report box office comparisons taking inflation adjustment into account. Not to take away from The Force Awakens success I do think the whole 'breaking box office record' thing is thrown about a bit too generously. That being said, The Force Awakens is a case where certainly a few of those adjusted records are likely to be approached, if not beaten. For sure Avatar, and I think Titanic is at around $1.1billion domestic, so maybe?

Inflation "adjustment" is inherently biased towards older movies; just as "unadjusted" is biased towards newer movies. Otherwise more than 3 movies post 2000 would have cracked the top 30. You correctly allude to the fact that the "top" box office movies (unadjusted) are recent releases. This cuts both ways.

Not to brag, but I've probably forgotten more about statistical analysis than most people will ever know. To try and compare movies from different eras is a fool's hope. "Just a fool's hope, as I have been told.” (Courtesy of J.R.R Tolkien)

Let them stand on their own merits. Gone with the Wind, Titanic, Avatar, Star Wars, etc. can't truly be compared by using "ticket price inflation". It's a very crude tool. To get a more sophisticated analysis that even approaches comparing movies from different eras would be very difficult and the problems inherent in trying to make these comparisons could be easily brought to the surface by any good 2nd year student of statistical analysis.

 

[InCali]

Well my point was even discarding the recent 3D release, comparing movies from different decades is never apple to apple.

It's just that Titanic is pretty much the last pre-2000's film that can still hold its own even un-adjusted. Almost all the highest grossing films of all time now have come out in the last 5 years.

100% true.

 

[PacificBoy]

At their respective stage of reception in China, Kung Fu Panda 3 will decimate TFA at the BO. Thankfully they aren't quite going head to head and TFA will have 20 days on it.

The presales are indeed quite underwhelming at this point.

For a guesstimation of the presales, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride, which opened at #1 on Monday with $5.39m has an online receipt value of 3444.8 (in tens of thousands) for its opening day.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/343761?_v_=yes

(Scroll down for the numbers.)

TFA for its opening day on 9 Jan is at 1295.5 at present.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

(Click 日票房 the first column on the left for the numbers.)

If Jurassic World can pull its numbers during a shorter run of 9 days then TFA can do similarly if WOM catches on. JW, too, had a OW which was nothing to write about. So, all to play out.

 

[spiderman2]

Being on a CB messageboard, Catwoman, Elektra, Green Lantern, Batman and Robin, Wolverine Origins, Superman IV. Those are some of the worst movies I've ever seen.

While I didn't like green lantern I thought it wasn't that bad and I like batman and robin more then any pre batman begins movie.

I think there were movies that were bad AND I disliked. The movies are listed were also panned by critics. Django wasn't. Titanic wasn't. They just aren't everyone's cup of tea which I see is the difference.

While I know that titanic and Django are not consider bad movies but to me they are both 2 of the worst movies I have ever seen before. Top 5 worst movies I have ever seen.

1. Transformers 4
2. Catwoman
3. Titanic
4. Django
5. Star wars episode 1

 

[spiderman2]

At their respective stage of reception in China, Kung Fu Panda 3 will decimate TFA at the BO. Thankfully they aren't quite going head to head and TFA will have 20 days on it.

The presales are indeed quite underwhelming at this point.

For a guesstimation of the presales, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride, which opened at #1 on Monday with $5.39m has an online receipt value of 3444.8 (in tens of thousands) for its opening day.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/343761?_v_=yes

(Scroll down for the numbers.)

TFA for its opening day on 9 Jan is at 1295.5 at present.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

(Click 日票房 the first column on the left for the numbers.)

If Jurassic World can pull its numbers during a shorter run of 9 days then TFA can do similarly if WOM catches on. JW, too, had a OW which was nothing to write about. So, all to play out.

Oh much did JW end up making in china?

 

[spiderman2]

Speaking of overseas, international number now up to $786.1 million per boxoffice.com. That would be a hike of about $16 million since the last report on Sunday. Global total is $1.5363 billion. Needs about $130 million globally to pass Jurassic World.

How long do you guys think that will take?

Domestic percentages of all 7 Star Wars films:

APM - 46.2%
AotC - 47.8%
RotS - 44.8%
ANH - 59.5%
ESB - 54%
RotJ - 65.1%
TFA - 48.6%

I was curious why everyone thought TFA would struggle to get to the 40% domestic gross numbers most movies seem to enjoy. Those percentages above seem to show why. Of course, the prequel numbers should be used more reliably since the global film market has changed so much over the past 38 years.

That being said, I think we can assume the world wide gross to only grow about 3.5% faster than it's domestic total from here on out. I guess China will make that up.

That is interesting

 

[spiderman2]

Any numbers forecasted for China yet? Pre sales numbers?

I was just to ask if there where any sort of estamates for how much the movie could make in china.

Those numbers are pretty relative as the talk has been how much more important the movie is to North America than other emerging markets that don't have the nostalgia factor, such as China. I do understand that it's been 10 years since the lowest percentage of 44% happened and that the markets have changed. But have they changed so much as to bring this movie closer to the 40% domestic number other films seem to average? The numbers don't support it.

If it does get closer to 40% domestic and the domestic numbers end up around $950m, that would bring the movie in around 2.5b world wide.

I am starting to think 2.5 billion WW may be what it ends up at when it is all said and done.

 

[spiderman2]

TFA vs. JW Foreign Weekend Totals

1. 281 vs. 316 million
2. 133 vs. 167 million
3. 96 vs. 86 million

Total up to Weekend 3: 770 vs 746 million

And that's with China opening at the same time.

So want JW at 24 million less at the same point in time has star war foreign with but with china?

 

[spiderman2]

Well to be fair Titanic came out in 1997 so unadjusted regardless it's not an apples to apples comparison any way you look at it.

That's still what boggles my mind about Titanic even leaving out the more recent 3D grosses its 1.8 billion made in the 97-98 period with purely 2d tickets would still technically be the 2nd highest grossing film ever.

Wasn't the second highest movie of all time at that point in time only like 900 million to? Just nuts.

"Adjusted" tickets are no more fair than anything else. It's way harder to crack the top 30 or whatever than it used to be. The Graduate made more money than the Dark Knight....whatever.

Titanic had a great run when it ran. Ditto for TFA. Increasing ticket prices tends to push down the number of tickets bought.

Yeah that is a good point to about the ticket prices and another reason there are to many factors to really compare movies from one time to another time.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Wasn't the second highest movie of all time at that point in time only like 900 million to? Just nuts.

Titanic grossed near 2 billion at a time when no film had ever grossed 1 billion. I think it was Jurassic Park it passed at 900 million.

I know it's hard for some of the younger posters to comprehend but I'm not sure I'll ever experience a bigger film than that in my lifetime? I just don't think it's possible anymore.

 

[PacificBoy]

Oh much did JW end up making in china?

According to box office mojo, it made $228,740m, placing it 6th on the all-time toppers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/yearly/

As for current predictions, most are going cautious based on the slow-moving presales and predicting $150-200m for the moment.

An article on it:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-wars-won-t-break-box-office-record-is-china

The yuan deappreciating is also a major factor now. Less bang for the buck.

 

[PacificBoy]

Titanic grossed near 2 billion at a time when no film had ever grossed 1 billion. I think it was Jurassic Park it passed at 900 million.

I know it's hard for some of the younger posters to comprehend but I'm not sure I'll ever experience a bigger film than that in my lifetime? I just don't think it's possible anymore.

I was around too then. The Leo-mania was quite something!

 

[Wildcard]

I think Kung Pu Panda 3 will absolutely be huge comp for Star Wars.

I don't know...Kung Fu Panda 2 had rather mediocre numbers, at least domestically anyway. I believe it grossed less than the first domestically, didn't it?

But, unless things change & pick up quickly, I think Ride Along 2 is the only release of this month that will be any real competition for TFA.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't know...Kung Fu Panda 2 had rather mediocre numbers, at least domestically anyway. I believe it grossed less than the first domestically, didn't it?

But, unless things change & pick up quickly, I think Ride Along 2 is the only release of this month that will be any real competition for TFA.

Pretty sure SPIDEY was talking about China.

 

[spiderman2]

Titanic grossed near 2 billion at a time when no film had ever grossed 1 billion. I think it was Jurassic Park it passed at 900 million.

I know it's hard for some of the younger posters to comprehend but I'm not sure I'll ever experience a bigger film than that in my lifetime? I just don't think it's possible anymore.

Right I thought it was something like that. Just crazy things. The very first star wars when it came out made like 700m and the closet movie that year to it only made like 200. Now think about that for a minute the biggest movie made like 3 and a half times has much has the second biggest movie that year. That would be like force awakens making 5.9 billion compared to Jurassic worlds 1.68 billion

 

[spiderman2]

I don't know...Kung Fu Panda 2 had rather mediocre numbers, at least domestically anyway. I believe it grossed less than the first domestically, didn't it?

But, unless things change & pick up quickly, I think Ride Along 2 is the only release of this month that will be any real competition for TFA.

When does ride along 2 came out? By then star wars will probly have made most of its money any way.

 

[spiderman2]

According to box office mojo, it made $228,740m, placing it 6th on the all-time toppers.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/yearly/

As for current predictions, most are going cautious based on the slow-moving presales and predicting $150-200m for the moment.

An article on it:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...r-wars-won-t-break-box-office-record-is-china

The yuan deappreciating is also a major factor now. Less bang for the buck.

Interesting I have always found it hard to find box office numbers for china for some reason. While lets say the movie makes 200m in china then how much do you think the movie would end up making WW by the time ever thing is done? Crazy if you look at 2015 compared to 2007 the biggest movie for the year this last year 2015 made like 11 times has much. Just shows how much china has exploded the last sever years.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

When does ride along 2 came out? By then star wars will probly have made most of its money any way.

Star Wars has already made most of its money.

 

[spiderman2]

Star Wars has already made most of its money.

While sure while over half but sounds like it still has around 250 million maybe more left in the tank in the USA so that is still a good amount left.