The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Erzengel]

JW made an additional $150 million after 18 days. It's possible but we'd have to see.

 

[InCali]

BvS won't come close to TFA, but it could do Avengers money.

Star Wars is on its own level.

Perhaps if it's really, really good it might, but I don't think so and here's why. There was a big lead up to the Avengers over a longer period of time and Marvel gave us these little glimpses of what was to be. It whetted our appetite (well most of our appetites) and when the Avengers hit, we got to see all of the heroes together. DC hasn't had the chance to let these characters mature as much or introduce them in their own movies. As I understand it, this is really a different Batman that Nolan's (which is cool and fine in my book) and WW will be introduced in BvS. Supes is really the recurring character.

I'll be lining up to see the new DC superheroes in their new, standalone movies and, if done right, I think JL has the best chance of doing Avengers like numbers. If BvS can, more power to them. It'll just mean it was a terrific movie. Who could complain about that?

 

[Erzengel]

Fandango did a poll about the most anticipated movie for 2016.

1. Star Wars Rogue One
2. Finding Dory
3. Batman vs. Superman

I just feel there isn't that type of buzz for it.

If BvS does 1.5 billion it should be grateful. I discussed this in another thread if it doesn't even make 1 billion, I don't think that's a success.

 

[InCali]

So TFA is now at $758m and going. What are the chances of it being the first film to hit a billion domestically?

I think it's pretty good. It'll have to hold better than JW and I think it will.

The 145M JW made after it's 18th day represents about 28% of what it made to date or about 22% of its overall total. To hit 1B, TFA would have to up those numbers to about 33% of its current total or about 25% of its overall total. Both, IMO, are likely as the hype and pent up desire for a new SW movie substantially outweighs that of JW. By this time, most people had sort of worked JW out of their system (though it still did well). With TFA, I believe less so.

That's what I think anyway.

 

[InCali]

Fandango did a poll about the most anticipated movie for 2016.

1. Star Wars Rogue One
2. Finding Dory
3. Batman vs. Superman

I just feel there isn't that type of buzz for it.

If BvS does 1.5 billion it should be grateful. I discussed this in another thread if it doesn't even make 1 billion, I don't think that's a success.

Not sure I agree on this. 1B is a LOT of money for a movie to make. I would expect it to up MoS by a substantial margin, but the only Marvel movies that pulled in over 1B were the Avengers movies and IM3 (which I didn't hate, but thought GotG was much better). IM3 was certainly pulled up by the Avengers. BvS doesn't really have that going for it. Of the DC movies, only TDK, hit 1B.

If everything goes well, I expect JL could be something approaching the Avengers.

 

[Erzengel]

Here's how I see. MOS made 700 million. IM3, Avengers 1 and 2 are all over 1Billion.

BvS SHOULD be a marquee movie and SHOULD be on the level of Avengers. Batman and Superman are A Listers in comic books, pulling in 800 or 950 would be like (my go to analogy) TASM2 only making 700.

Again, this all has to do with quality and how good or entertaining BvS is. But this is DC's flagship and Marvel movies can make over $1B, this movie should in theory. It's a different story for GL, WW, Cyborg, etc.

There are certain movies that should make a certain amount. If TFA only made what some posters here thought between $1b-$1.2b, regardless of reviews, I'd think that would be disappointing.

 

[rashad]

BvS doesn't really have that going for it. Of the DC movies, only TDK, hit 1B.

TDKR made 1 billion as well.

TDKR Worldwide: $1,084,939,099
TDK Worldwide: $1,004,558,444

 

[ManWithNoName18]

What I'm wondering, is how Star Wars Rogue 1 will do. It's set in the Star Wars universe but not apart of the new main storyline. Wonder how it's Box office will do compared to other heavy hitters of 2016 like ID4, BVS, civil war, Finding Dory etc

 

[Erzengel]

Rogue One will have "competition" more so than this year. Assassin's Creed may buck the video game movie trend.

But I do wonder if the Fandango pollers thought this was Episode VIII.

 

[InCali]

TDKR made 1 billion as well.

TDKR Worldwide: $1,084,939,099
TDK Worldwide: $1,004,558,444

Correct!!! My mistake. I think TDKR was poised to be HUGE. My personal opinion is that it didn't quite live up to its predecessors and fizzled out sooner than it otherwise would have. I liked it, but absolutely loved the first 2.

IMO if BvS can get anywhere near this, that'll be fine. With some good stand alones, they can be set to hit a home run with JL. That could be a fun movie.

 

[InCali]

What I'm wondering, is how Star Wars Rogue 1 will do. It's set in the Star Wars universe but not apart of the new main storyline. Wonder how it's Box office will do compared to other heavy hitters of 2016 like ID4, BVS, civil war, Finding Dory etc

I heard there might be a Darth Vader sighting. That'd drive us SW nutcakes up the wall.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

See I can see why DC fans would be obsessed with Marvel because Marvel are the top dogs but I always find it odd how obsessed Marvel stans are with DC. Marvel are on top, you guys are punching down. Punching down isn't interesting or funny, that's why conservative comedians aren't funny.

Some people on hype like to cause trouble and then say that fans are too thin skinned and paranoid.

As I said both the Marvel and DC fan bases are being delusional. Star Wars is in a class all it's own.

 

[Mysteryman]

Fandango did a poll about the most anticipated movie for 2016.

1. Star Wars Rogue One
2. Finding Dory
3. Batman vs. Superman

I just feel there isn't that type of buzz for it.

If BvS does 1.5 billion it should be grateful. I discussed this in another thread if it doesn't even make 1 billion, I don't think that's a success.

Are you saying that ONLY movies that make a billion are successful?
I disagree.
That having been said,
BVS Will make a billion and internet polls are often unreliable.

 

[Erzengel]

No that's not what I said.

I said specifically if DC's BvS doesn't make $1B I don't think it's a success. Like I said previously, BvS is DC's A Listers, the Trinity, in some people's estimation should be more popular than even the Avengers.

It should have higher expectations.

 

[Mysteryman]

BVS will make a billion.
I have no doubt of that.

 

[Erzengel]

It's all up in the air now with movies like Transformers or Pirates have skewed reviews/box office results.

Now, a 50-60 RT Score for BvS I would assume makes $1B. A 80-90 RT Score I can see doing $1.5B.

The other thing is this isn't Snyder's first CBM and none of his stuff has ever been in the 80-90 range.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

As I said both the Marvel and DC fan bases are being delusional. Star Wars is in a class all it's own.

It really is. There is no bigger fanbase than Star Wars. Not Marvel. Not DC. Not Tolkien. Not Star Trek. Not James Bond. Not Harry Potter. Nothing.

 

[flickchick85]

See I can see why DC fans would be obsessed with Marvel because Marvel are the top dogs but I always find it odd how obsessed Marvel stans are with DC. Marvel are on top, you guys are punching down.

DC and Marvel fans are like the Yankees and Red Sox fans. They'll always be obsessed with each other no matter which one's on top at the time. Even when there's a bigger top dog around.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

There is a BvS box office thread.

 

[Black Narcissus]

That hardly matters. The Batstans have spoken. They have issued their challenge.

Spoiler

Not sure if serious?

One guy making a lame poster does not count.

 

[Mysteryman]

It really is. There is no bigger fanbase than Star Wars. Not Marvel. Not DC. Not Tolkien. Not Star Trek. Not James Bond. Not Harry Potter. Nothing.

Agreed.
Nobody does it better,not even Bond.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not sure if serious?

One guy making a lame poster does not count.

It counts to Tactic Ronan.

I think DC Stans can be just as obnoxious as Marvel Stans but most DC fans I've seen, even the obnoxious ones, do not believe BvS is making Star Wars money. I don't believe that the vast majority of Marvel fans believe that Civil War is making Star Wars money either.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

DC and Marvel fans are like the Yankees and Red Sox fans. They'll always be obsessed with each other no matter which one's on top at the time. Even when there's a bigger top dog around.

Personally, I think it is ridiculous. There is nothing saying you can't enjoy both. It isn't like sports where there is only one winner.

 

[Mysteryman]

So, how did TFA do yesterday?.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Or you can enjoy one over the other but nobody has to be a dick about it. I enjoy both.