The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Erzengel]

Well considering by that rationale they are thinking BvS makes 1B on the first day.

 

[metaphysician]

BvS won't come close to TFA, but it could do Avengers money.

Star Wars is on its own level.

I can't really see it. Not with the only prior movie being the deeply divisive Man of Steel. It'll *probably* break a billion, but even that I'd not call a sure thing.

Basically, WB can come back after they've managed to make several movies in the franchise with RT ratings greater than 75. Until then, meh.

 

[jokesonm3]

I can't really see it. Not with the only prior movie being the deeply divisive Man of Steel. It'll *probably* break a billion, but even that I'd not call a sure thing.

Basically, WB can come back after they've managed to make several movies in the franchise with RT ratings greater than 75. Until then, meh.

Oops i must've took a wrong turn down alburquerque because i thought this was the BvS boards again.

And it was only divisive with critics, NOT the general audience.

 

[DKDetective]

Oops i must've took a wrong turn down alburquerque because i thought this was the BvS boards again.

And it was only divisive with critics, NOT the general audience.

I would like to see your proof of that. I know a lot of people in real life who did not like or were lukewarm about the film. These are regular, everyday people, general audience types, not diehard nerds, so yeah... divisive seems right to me. Also, there wouldn't be all of those parody videos, with tons of views on YouTube, critiquing the movie's tone and final battle if there wasn't a kernel of truth behind the criticism. MoS didn't make bad money for a reboot, but there were plenty of rumours around Hollywood that WB found its box office take underwhelming.

 

[InCali]

I would like to see your proof of that. I know a lot of people in real life who did not like or were lukewarm about the film. These are regular, everyday people, general audience types, not diehard nerds, so yeah... divisive seems right to me. Also, there wouldn't be all of those parody videos, with tons of views on YouTube, critiquing the movie's tone and final battle if there wasn't a kernel of truth behind the criticism. MoS didn't make bad money for a reboot, but there were plenty of rumours around Hollywood that WB found its box office take underwhelming.

Not trying to start anything, but I was rather underwhelmed by it. I was hoping for the quality of Nolan's BB and TDK. That's a high bar and didn't expect it, but did hope.

Didn't hate MoS. It just never grabbed me. Doesn't make it a bad movie, but thought the end was sort of silly.

 

[jokesonm3]

I would like to see your proof of that. I know a lot of people in real life who did not like or were lukewarm about the film. These are regular, everyday people, general audience types, not diehard nerds, so yeah... divisive seems right to me. Also, there wouldn't be all of those parody videos, with tons of views on YouTube, critiquing the movie's tone and final battle if there wasn't a kernel of truth behind the criticism. MoS didn't make bad money for a reboot, but there were plenty of rumours around Hollywood that WB found its box office take underwhelming.

Based on other audience review boards like Cinemascore, RT's Audience score, and IMDB, things like that which got fairly positive reviews.

Only ones that are 'mixed' where it's RT critical score and metacritic.

And for a Superman movie living off the financial legacy of past Superman films. making $668M+ for a Superman film was great even for WB.

 

[metaphysician]

He'll probably just shrug and say, "I'll get the title back when Avatar 2 comes out."

I don't believe that for a second. I seriously doubt Avatar 2 will do nearly as well as the first one. Not with the contraction in 3D interest.

 

[Erzengel]

3 or 3 1/2 stars out of 5. It's definitely not in the same category as The Dark Knight or even Begins. Definitely not even the best Superman movie or Zod performance. However, on SHH I may be in the minority.

 

[InCali]

3 or 3 1/2 stars out of 5. It's definitely not in the same category as The Dark Knight or even Begins. Definitely not even the best Superman movie or Zod performance. However, on SHH I may be in the minority.

I'm prolly about where you are. I thought "even" Begins was terrific. Man, the cinematography in TDK was just stunning at times. I saw it in IMAX and love heights (but not falling thank you....). In some of those scenes, I could feel myself going down, down, down.....

I'd give TFA about 4.5. Maybe nostalgia, but I really liked it. I'm thinking ep 8 will be better, but make less money.

 

[Erzengel]

To put somethings in context

Cinemascore

Man of Steel A-
Spider-Man 3 B+
The Amazing Spider-Man A-
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 B+
Thor: The Dark World A-
Iron Man 2 A
The incredible Hulk A-
X-Men Origins Wolverine B+
X-Men: The Last Stand A-

RT's Audience score

Man of Steel 76% 3.9/5
Spider-Man 3 51% 3.3/5
The Amazing Spider-Man 77% 3.9/5
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 66% 3.6/5
Thor: The Dark World - 78% 3.9/5
Iron Man 2 72% 3.7/5
The incredible Hulk 72% 3.6/5
X-Men Origins Wolverine 59% 3.6/5
X-Men: The Last Stand 62% 3.6/5

IMDB

Man of Steel 7.2
Spider-Man 3 6.2
The Amazing Spider-Man 7.1
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 6.8
Thor: The Dark World - 7.1
Iron Man 2 7.0
The incredible Hulk 6.8
X-Men Origins Wolverine 6.7
X-Men: The Last Stand 6.8

 

[jokesonm3]

Exactly it was more positive then mixed with the GA.

 

[Erzengel]

In comparison to the some of bottom rung of each respective franchise?

According to Cinemascore, X-Men: The Last Stand is also a A-.

It's the same Audience Score as Thor: Dark World, which many consider the worst MCU movie.

My point is maybe you can't really use those sites as determining factors.

 

[jokesonm3]

Fine agree to disagree then.

Best to not get this thread off topic and talk more about SW7.

 

[PacificBoy]

Yeah, it doesn't seem that smart as a marketing move, but to be fair to Disney, neither does the Chinese audience's choice of Hollywood blockbusters given that movies like Furious 7 and Transformers sequels top the charts. If you gobble up movies that appeal to the lowest common denominator, it makes sense that they think marketing the film that way will work. Look at how they changed the TFA poster for China - they added more guns, explosions and spaceships.

I don't think it's a misfire as well. Using Lu Han as a brand ambassador makes perfect sense. Other than being an internationally known pop star (amongst screaming young women mainly) he's starring in one of China's most popular variety shows and is highly visible in the public eye. He's clean cut and generally well liked, or the very least, deemed harmless. Just that for this particular piece of marketing, the mileage varies.

Sometimes you can't account for a response. The 500 stormtroopers on the Great Wall had some being iffy about seeing a foreign army on the Wall, even as a promotional stunt and the army is a fictional one. For a people as culturally removed from Star Wars as the Chinese, maybe the best and direct advert is still the movie itself and having the locals watch it and spread the hopefully good word about it.

 

[Iceman]

Most big films that aren't terrible get decent scores on those metrics.

 

[Smurphftw]

Most big films that aren't terrible get decent scores on those metrics.

That's because the majority of people who go to see movies want to enjoy themselves, and will emphasize the positive rather than the negative.

 

[PacificBoy]

As of this time, the opening day online ticket value from maoyan is 26.319m yuan.

http://piaofang.maoyan.com/movie/78536?_v_=yes

For those interested in the Chinese presales, it's really picking up on the eve of the opening. Jumped by 65% or so, now at 42.813m yuan.. Looking a good bet to make Terminator Genisys OD numbers at this rate.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still don't quite understand the Chinese box office but that's because I haven't tried to yet. I'll get around to it I'm sure.

 

[kickass]

For those interested in the Chinese presales, it's really picking up on the eve of the opening. Jumped by 65% or so, now at 42.813m yuan.. Looking a good bet to make Terminator Genisys OD numbers at this rate.

Is that a good thing?

 

[PacificBoy]

Is that a good thing?

I'd say so, yeah. Considering the rate it's picking up.

 

[spiderman2]

So based of the way this week is going what are the chanses of this movie making 1 billion USA?

 

[spiderman2]

For those interested in the Chinese presales, it's really picking up on the eve of the opening. Jumped by 65% or so, now at 42.813m yuan.. Looking a good bet to make Terminator Genisys OD numbers at this rate.

How much did terminator genisys make OD and over all in china?

 

[flickchick85]

Is that a good thing?

That movie did crazy good business in China, so I'd say yes.

 

[PacificBoy]

How much did terminator genisys make OD and over all in china?

According to Forbes,

The Arnold Schwarzenegger film scored $2.2 million worth of midnight previews in China, which is the fourth-biggest on record for an American film behind Transformers: Age of Extinction ($3.38m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($4.7m), and Furious 7 ($8.03m). It then went on to earn $27.4 million on its first single day, which is the fourth biggest debut for a US movie ever in China, behind Transformers 2 ($30m), Avengers 2 ($33.9m), and Furious 7 ($63m). Yes, that is larger than the $1.1m worth of previews and $17.7m single day gross of Jurassic World back in June.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...isys-rocks-china-with-26-million-opening-day/

The total it made was $112,800,000 according to Mojo.

Still too early to talk about TFA's totals now though, the manner in which the presales are rallying.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Terminator's legs were crap though.