The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[InCali]

Back then, horse racing, boxing, baseball were the popular sports events to go to. Not like in the US now with the big 4.

Yes. There used to be a lot of smaller venues for boxing. My father was a professional fighter and I boxed amateur for some time. It wasn't mainly the super spectacular, high end events you normally see. It was more spread out and everyone knew each other.

Yeah....lots of changes. Back in the 30's a lot of people didn't have regular jobs and could go to some of these things during the days I suppose....

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

BOM has an entire page dedicated to how they come up with their Adjusted numbers and they do account for re-releases in the year the movie was re-released. It's not all lumped in together.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Looks like about $7.2 million for China on Monday. Not a great number. Total run now looking like something around $125 million but we'll see.

 

[Erzengel]

I think it's great that TFA has won the box office 4 weeks in a row, but I'd would have rather they lost to Revenant than to Ride Along 2.

 

[InCali]

BOM has an entire page dedicated to how they come up with their Adjusted numbers and they do account for re-releases in the year the movie was re-released. It's not all lumped in together.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

You can come up with a ton of formulas for doing it and I'm sure some are better than others, but if someone can figure out a way to take advancements in technology (rise of TV, home theater, streaming, bluray, etc.) and the fact that you can see virtually anything a few months after it has been released, factor that, and come up with a number, they are a WAY better statistician than I am (or can ever hope to be). The problem is that, since we live in a singular timeline, there's no way to say "Well, if we had done X, the result would have been Y". You can guess and maybe it's an educated guess, but that's all it is.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Looks like about $7.2 million for China on Monday. Not a great number. Total run now looking like something around $125 million but we'll see.

I thought it would at least get around 200 million. Shows what I know.

 

[Iceman]

Looks like about $7.2 million for China on Monday. Not a great number. Total run now looking like something around $125 million but we'll see.

Oh, expected more than that but China is hard to predict.

 

[PacificBoy]

Still have time to rally. This week is critical though, if it doesn't pick up, especially by Friday, it could lose some screens by the weekend to several new wide releases. Amongst them, The Last Witch Hunter (which shouldn't pose much of a competition since Chinese audiences aren't big on sword and sorcery stuff). The other local movies, while not slated to be big, look like it could compete for some screens.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

You can come up with a ton of formulas for doing it and I'm sure some are better than others, but if someone can figure out a way to take advancements in technology (rise of TV, home theater, streaming, bluray, etc.) and the fact that you can see virtually anything a few months after it has been released, factor that, and come up with a number, they are a WAY better statistician than I am (or can ever hope to be). The problem is that, since we live in a singular timeline, there's no way to say "Well, if we had done X, the result would have been Y". You can guess and maybe it's an educated guess, but that's all it is.

There's access to theaters, number of theaters, population, all kinds of metrics that need to be established to identify a clearer answer but who has all of those numbers?

However, when you start talking about home viewing options, you are no longer talking about the box office.

I agree that the box office alone isn't a stat that shows the popularity of a movie anymore with the degree of home theater options. But we are talking box office. You have to be properly motivated to see a movie in the theater. If you aren't motivated enough to go spend the money to see it in the theater, perhaps the movie wasn't that popular to you in the first place.

 

[Unbreakable Lex]

Still have time to rally. This week is critical though, if it doesn't pick up, especially by Friday, it could lose some screens by the weekend to several new wide releases. Amongst them, The Last Witch Hunter (which shouldn't pose much of a competition since Chinese audiences aren't big on sword and sorcery stuff). The other local movies, while not slated to be big, look like it could compete for some screens.

Star Wars is kinda swords and sorcery stuff though.

 

[PacificBoy]

Star Wars is kinda swords and sorcery stuff though.

That's true. It's sci-fi fantasy after all with almost equal measures of both. More accurately, they don't quite favour the more traditional type like Conan.

 

[spiderman2]

Looks like about $7.2 million for China on Monday. Not a great number. Total run now looking like something around $125 million but we'll see.

Oh man that suck I am not sure if the movie is going to even catch titanic WW now. The movie is at about 1.733 billion and it may have only around 100m left in both USA and OS not including china witch would get it up to 1.933 and then with china it may have only another like 70m or so witch would get it up to like 2.003 billion and still like a little over 100m behind titanic.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Star Wars is kinda swords and sorcery stuff though.

And that might be the issue.

 

[PacificBoy]

And that might be the issue.

I think it just comes down to familiarity with the franchise. I checked and the Hobbit movies did quite decently in China.

 

[kedrell]

I think it's great that TFA has won the box office 4 weeks in a row, but I'd would have rather they lost to Revenant than to Ride Along 2.

Yeah when I saw Revenant pull ahead on Friday I thought for sure it was going to win the weekend but SW just had that extremely high Saturday and pulled it out. I was guessing $15m for it's Saturday but it was closer to $20m. Usually the way it goes when not an opening weekend is Friday=1x/Saturday=1.5x/Sunday=1x but for SW it's Saturday was nearly 2X.

 

[kedrell]

Looks like about $7.2 million for China on Monday. Not a great number. Total run now looking like something around $125 million but we'll see.

It'll come in between Ant-Man and MI:RN.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it just comes down to familiarity with the franchise. I checked and the Hobbit movies did quite decently in China.

Only the last Hobbit movie made over 100mil.

 

[PacificBoy]

Only the last Hobbit movie made over 100mil.

Well, I suppose familiarity only goes so far.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well, I suppose familiarity only goes so far.

I suspect Star Wars will grow in the Chinese market.

The Fast and Furious series went from under 100mil in China to over 380mil. I know people attribute all of that to Paul Walker but I don't believe Walker was a big star in China. Don't get me wrong I think the tragedy helped the film gross what it did in a lot of markets but I think the film was headed for around a billion anyway.

 

[kedrell]

China is big MCU country. Even Ant-Man made over $100m there.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not eating Chinese food in protest until TFA makes $200 million.

 

[PacificBoy]

I suspect Star Wars will grow in the Chinese market.

The Fast and Furious series went from under 100mil in China to over 380mil.

It certainly will. Merchandising will increase as the kids (and some adults) gobble the toys and collectibles up and Disney Shanghai is upcoming. Rogue One will further the presence. I don't think it'll ever be as beloved as it is in the west and Japan, but Star Wars will find a place amongst the pop culture.

 

[PacificBoy]

I'm not eating Chinese food in protest until TFA makes $200 million.

Chinese food made in America? You aren't missing much then.

 

[metaphysician]

Who gives a flying **** what RT score a film gets, critics are just people with opinions like you or me. A RT score does not mean a film is good if bad. I really don't get why people care about that sort of stuff.

Its not *absolutely* indicative, but it sure as hell does correlate with whether a movie is good or bad. Good movies very, very seldom get terrible RT ratings, and terrible movies even more seldom get strong RT ratings. This requires that not just a few critics really hate/love a movie out of proportion to its quality, but for *most* critics to do so. This just plain doesn't really happen.

Note: "This movie is good/bad" is *not* synonymous with "I like/hate this movie". You can like a movie that is terrible, and hate a movie that is good.

 

[Erzengel]

Chinese food made in America? You aren't missing much then.

Chinese New Year isn't looking so good either.