Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Zarex]

What would be a reasonable price for Disney to pay Fox for FF?

500 m?

250 m?

Or less?

Approval for the X-Men tie in show and perhaps options for additional shows as well. I doubt additional cash will be involved.

 

[wobbly]

What would be a reasonable price for Disney to pay Fox for FF?

500 m?

250 m?

Or less?

I'd start with just covering their losses. $60mil, and maybe a few Denny's F4 meals to sweeten the deal...

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

What would be a reasonable price for Disney to pay Fox for FF?

500 m?

250 m?

Or less?

If they stand to lose $60M...I'd think at least around $60M to $75M (with a ceiling of $100M). They need to cover their losses. And apparently they're not doing as well financially as we've been led to believe. They really needed this one to perform since their profit is lower than 2014's.

But they can't get greedy with their demands of Marvel either. It's not like they're offering them a franchise in pristine condition. It's BADLY damaged now and will require rehabilitation. They should've taken Marvel's deal before this weekend's travesty. Now Marvel has all the leverage.

 

[Eddie]

I'd start with just covering their losses. $60mil, and maybe a few Denny's F4 meals to sweeten the deal...

Offering someone Denny's is worse than showing them a picture of yourself and their mother making love. We want these rights back home, we can't offend them that much!

 

[InCali]

60% is the minimum this will drop - it will probably be close to 70%.

That's what I'm thinking. I boldly predict FF will best Ant-Man's weekend totals 8/14-16. After that, all bets are off.

Please bring FF back home.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

They did a hell of a lot more than take creative liberties. Just because they got away with that **** with X-Men doesn't mean that they were going to get away with it with F4. If the film were decent they might have but it wasn't so they didn't.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I was at a café today and I overheard the waiter and the cook talking about Fant-For-Stick in the kitchen. The one guy was straight up RIPPING the film. He hadn't seen it, but had read how it was a total flop and only brought in "20 Million". I should've corrected him, but I didn't. I just listened.

So yeah, people are talking. It's being covered all over the media...it's a huge blow for FOX and an embarrassment.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I was at a café today and I overheard the waiter and the cook talking about Fant-For-Stick in the kitchen. The one guy was straight up RIPPING the film. He hadn't seen it, but had read how it was a total flop and only brought in "20 Million". I should've corrected him, but I didn't. I just listened.

So yeah, people are talking. It's being covered all over the media...it's a huge blow for FOX and an embarrassment.

Some have said that if Marvel got Fantastic Four back and turned it into a hit, it would be embarrassing to Fox. Well, it wouldn't be anywhere near as embarrassing as this weekend was.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Did you guys realize that this thing is not *just* an article...it's the FRONT COVER STORY on Hollywood Reporter right now?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/

 

[Eddie]

Did you guys realize that this thing is not *just* an article...it's the FRONT COVER STORY on Hollywood Reporter right now?

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/

Being the front page story on a Detroit newspaper is worse, which apparently happened. When the most awful thing that happens in Detroit is your movie hitting theaters, there's a very serious problem.

 

[wobbly]

Offering someone Denny's is worse than showing them a picture of yourself and their mother making love. We want these rights back home, we can't offend them that much!

Lol . I have no idea tbh, we don't have them here (Denny's I mean...likely got some people doing the other... )

 

[InCali]

If they stand to lose $60M...I'd think at least around $60M to $75M (with a ceiling of $100M). They need to cover their losses. And apparently they're not doing as well financially as we've been led to believe. They really needed this one to perform since their profit is lower than 2014's.

But they can't get greedy with their demands of Marvel either. It's not like they're offering them a franchise in pristine condition. It's BADLY damaged now and will require rehabilitation. They should've taken Marvel's deal before this weekend's travesty. Now Marvel has all the leverage.

I'd say covering their losses and maybe foregoing the money Marvel stood to make on the gross, gross of the BO receipts. As a fan, I am concerned about Marvel helping to strengthen the X-Men franchise because I'm not sure Fox, going forward, is going to do a bang up job with their movies. If Fox whiffs on the next couple of movies, X-Men could be in trouble and, if it does get in trouble (think also post Jackman/Singer), it would be better to fork over the $$$ now rather than have to buy back other rights that got traded earlier.

I don't know if any of the above is at all realistic, but please get FF back in the fold.

 

[JKKS085]

It's going to be interesting to see wether or not Fant4stic can manage an even worse multiplier than GL (its abyssmal sunday drop suggests it's going to be a strong contender). The next goal is a 66%+ drop next week end which is in the cards IMO.

Another thing I'm looking forward is wether or not its final dom numbers will end up short of Ant-Man's opening we ($57.2M). It needs a 2.2 multiplier to beat it, which would be slightly better than GL's. Definitely not a given.

 

[Silver Surfer]

No way this reaches 50 mil domestic, heck I have doubts about 40 mil.

 

[starscream22]

Being the front page story on a Detroit newspaper is worse, which apparently happened. When the most awful thing that happens in Detroit is your movie hitting theaters, there's a very serious problem.

Perhaps showing them this colossal failure was to lift their spirits...?

 

[SpitCurl]

I'd say covering their losses and maybe foregoing the money Marvel stood to make on the gross, gross of the BO receipts. As a fan, I am concerned about Marvel helping to strengthen the X-Men franchise because I'm not sure Fox, going forward, is going to do a bang up job with their movies. If Fox whiffs on the next couple of movies, X-Men could be in trouble and, if it does get in trouble (think also post Jackman/Singer), it would be better to fork over the $$$ now rather than have to buy back other rights that got traded earlier.

I don't know if any of the above is at all realistic, but please get FF back in the fold.

Honestly, if I was Marvel I wouldn't offer Fox anything. For the time being, Marvel has a game-plan laid out through at least 2020, and that game plan is doing just fine w/o FF.

Fox, on the other hand, clearly wants something Marvel has (their approval for the X-Men TV series), so the impetus is on Fox to give Marvel a reason other than altruism to say "yes". I'm sure Fox could offer a % of the ad revenue the show brings in, but I doubt Marvel would consider that a particularly enticing deal, especially with their own shows doing just fine.

Worst case scenario for Marvel, Fox keeps the rights and either tries and fails again in 2022/23 (just in time for phase...5? 6? MCU reboot?) and loses even more money before finally giving up, or, they just let the rights revert. I suppose it's possible Fox actually produces a decent film, should they try again (close to the revert date, and likely not a minute sooner) but... I wouldn't place a stranger's money on that bet.

No, if I'm Marvel, I pocket the roughly 10M or so I'm likely to get from the gross on this film while patiently waiting for Fox to come knocking.

 

[TalismanRing]

What would be a reasonable price for Disney to pay Fox for FF?

500 m?

250 m?

Or less?

Less. Disney bought all of Marvel for $4b. FF4 and company are certainly not worth an 1/8th of that. This is a property that Marvel can't even use for years. Yes, they can use the ancillary characters (Surfer, Kang, Galactus - Doom is even tainted) but they only offered to just extend Daredevil rights for use of them before. And that was before GOTG proved they could make profitable movies with Z list characters, or that an Ant-man movie could make as much as a Wolverine movie starring Hugh Jackman and they have a vault of over 5,000 characters to play with.

 

[Farren]

No way this reaches 50 mil domestic, heck I have doubts about 40 mil.

Despite the fact that this film continues to defy my expectations with it's awfulness, I think it will top $40M domestic. Elektra, Catwoman, GL, and Spirit of Vengeance all had total domestic that at least doubled their opening weekend domestic. I'd actually say that $50M is pretty likely, plus or minus a few million (probably minus).

 

[Flint Marko]

I think $50 mil is attainable.

 

[InCali]

I think $50 mil is attainable.

The picture will become much clearer after next weekend. I suspect just about 50M. Who would have thought that??? Wow. It was supposed to do that OW!!!

As far as getting the FF back, I say do it sooner rather than later. Under the Marvel banner, FF and the great villains and other supporting cast could be a big help towards the mid/end of phase 3. Get the deal done and strike while the iron is hot. If Fox won't cooperate, fine, let it go down the line, but make an A list effort. FF has a very rich cast of characters.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think $50 mil is attainable.

I guess what matter the most is the worldwide gross and it doesn't seem the overseas crowd is throwing much money Fox's way either.

 

[Flint Marko]

I guess what matter the most is the worldwide gross and it doesn't seem the overseas crowd is throwing much money Fox's way either.

I certainly hope not. What's the word on the China release again?

 

[Eddie]

Nothing, last I heard. China has also put out some humongous hits of their own lately, so I doubt they'll be in a rush to pick this up.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It will probably flop in China as well so it doesn't matter if it's released there.

 

[InCali]

Is Kang part of FF? He was in Avengers #8 way back when....waaaaay back.