Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

[The Endless]

Green Lantern-esque.

 

[EssayM]

Would you put you're money in the production of this movie? Would you expect a return on your investment by all you've seen? Tell me why..

SHOW ME THE MONEY!!

Okay. Here's what I think the thought process was...

The year was 2012. Fox noticed that they'd been having success with their X-Men franchise, remembered that they still owned the rights to another lucrative Marvel franchise (the Story films, for all their faults, did do well financially), and decided to give it an Ultimates-based reboot a la the then-recent success The Amazing Spider-Man (likely unaware of UFF's negative reputation). They brought in Josh Trank, fresh off his success with Chronicle, another movie about teenage superheroes that had been a box-office success on a small budget (a big plus in this economy). Add a cast of up-and-coming young actors with a lot of buzz around them (one of them already acquainted with the up-and-coming director), and it's not unreasonable to think that Fox would expect a good return on this.

With all of that, the better question would be, "Why are they trying to kill it?" (If they actually are.)

 

[Dr Tactics]

Okay. Here's what I think the thought process was...

The year was 2012. Fox noticed that they'd been having success with their X-Men franchise, remembered that they still owned the rights to another lucrative Marvel franchise (the Story films, for all their faults, did do well financially)

Pause.. In fact they ROTSS flopped. Fact. Continue..

and decided to give it an Ultimates-based reboot a la the then-recent success The Amazing Spider-Man (likely unaware of UFF's negative reputation). They brought in Josh Trank, fresh off his success with Chronicle, another movie about teenage superheroes that had been a box-office success on a small budget (a big plus in this economy). Add a cast of up-and-coming young actors with a lot of buzz around them (one of them already acquainted with the up-and-coming director), and it's not unreasonable to think that Fox would expect a good return on this.

With all of that, the better question would be, "Why are they trying to kill it?" (If they actually are.)

Because 7 years after a flop nobody (well maybe an insignificant number) wants Fox to attempt another FF after the MCU hits it out of the Box Office park. For 3 of the 4 years it was Lee/Kirby 616 then suddenly its UFF with a African-American Johnny Storm. Small budget=good to you for any Marvel film?? ROTSS had a $130 Mill Budget. Every Marvel film had at least a $150 Million Budget (Except IM with $140 Mill) AOU will be 200+ Mil Budget (Not including Promotion). Then theres lil old FF. Your bordering on disrespecting the FF with this logic. The fans know it, The GA won't care (and won't care to see it either) so thats why they would try to kill it..

But answer my question. Would you put your money on it and realistically expect a return.. Maybe you should help Fox with the budget. Maybe you can help me make the FF Reboot.. I'll give you my banking info for a deposit. "I GOT CHU"!!! t:

 

[wobbly]

If the rumours of trouble in paradise are true then I'd say Fox are concerned this could well be a very costly mistake. If that is the case they have to assess how much is it really worth to go ahead (and keep the rights) or would they be better off giving up the ghost.

I have no idea how much they might have spent so far, but for arguments sake I'd guess maybe a few mil in keeping Trank signed on, all the script rewrites/amendments, the location scouting's etc. Now they are at the point they where will have to start writing out the big cheques. To the actors who sign on officially, to the set designers, the FX teams etc.

If they are gonna blink at the last the next few weeks will tell.

 

[EssayM]

Pause.. In fact they ROTSS flopped. Fact. Continue..

Not really. $130 M budget, $289 M gross...it wasn't as big as the first one, but it did okay.

Because 7 years after a flop nobody (well maybe an insignificant number) wants Fox to attempt another FF after the MCU hits it out of the Box Office park. For 3 of the 4 years it was Lee/Kirby 616 then suddenly its UFF with a African-American Johnny Storm. Small budget=good to you for any Marvel film?? ROTSS had a $130 Mill Budget. Every Marvel film had at least a $150 Million Budget (Except IM with $140 Mill) AOU will be 200+ Mil Budget (Not including Promotion). Then theres lil old FF. Your bordering on disrespecting the FF with this logic. The fans know it, The GA won't care (and won't care to see it either) so thats why they would try to kill it..

I wasn't saying that I agree with it, but I think that's probably how Fox reasoned it out. Small budget may not make a better movie, but its good news for the studios because they have less to lose if the movie underperforms, and Trank showed them with Chronicle that he was able to do that and have it pay. That's all I was trying to say.

Also, how will we know what they're planning to spend on it until they, y'know, spend it? Has their even been an official budget released yet.

But answer my question. Would you put your money on it and realistically expect a return.. Maybe you should help Fox with the budget. Maybe you can help me make the FF Reboot.. I'll give you my banking info for a deposit. "I GOT CHU"!!! t:

To be blunt...yes. Nothing here that hasn't already been successful with the TASM franchise (including Electro being race-changed and Rhino being a guy in a mocap suit, neither of which seem to be getting much hate), so I can totally see why a trend-chasing studio executive would sign off on this. They might be nervous because of the online backlash and poor handling thereof, but I don't see why that would make them abandon a project with (in their eyes) everything else going for it. So yes, if I were them, I would totally bank on this.

 

[Donut]

The Electro & Perry White race changes changed nothing but their own characters. Changing Johnny Storm pretty much changes the entire team & also takes up story & screen time & bringing in the Nick Fury argument is worthless. That change first happened in the comics & it helps that the actor they based the change on is him in the movies

 

[Dr Tactics]

Not really. $130 M budget, $289 M gross...it wasn't as big as the first one, but it did okay.

Keep in mind that estimating loss on a movie is WW Gross /2- Production budget. by that math $289/2=144.5-130= 14.5Mil.. Also keep in mind that by the IP leasing contract they are to give Marvel 10% of the WW profits so that another 28.9 Million so thats a loss of -14.4 mil

I wasn't saying that I agree with it, but I think that's probably how Fox reasoned it out. Small budget may not make a better movie, but its good news for the studios because they have less to lose if the movie underperforms, and Trank showed them with Chronicle that he was able to do that and have it pay. That's all I was trying to say.

So you'd accept a Found footage FF film?

Also, how will we know what they're planning to spend on it until they, y'know, spend it? Has their even been an official budget released yet.

True but.... I still have a bad feeling

To be blunt...yes. Nothing here that hasn't already been successful with the TASM franchise (including Electro being race-changed and Rhino being a guy in a mocap suit, neither of which seem to be getting much hate), so I can totally see why a trend-chasing studio executive would sign off on this. They might be nervous because of the online backlash and poor handling thereof, but I don't see why that would make them abandon a project with (in their eyes) everything else going for it. So yes, if I were them, I would totally bank on this.

See the math above on the ROTSS and if you still stand by this then we can talk some more wiser investments

 

[The Endless]

Not really. $130 M budget, $289 M gross...it wasn't as big as the first one, but it did okay.

That is a flop. When you figure in marketing costs, international distribution and the cut the theaters take... ROTSS barely broke even.

 

[Zarex]

Okay. Here's what I think the thought process was...

The year was 2012. Fox noticed that they'd been having success with their X-Men franchise, remembered that they still owned the rights to another lucrative Marvel franchise (the Story films, for all their faults, did do well financially), and decided to give it an Ultimates-based reboot a la the then-recent success The Amazing Spider-Man (likely unaware of UFF's negative reputation). They brought in Josh Trank, fresh off his success with Chronicle, another movie about teenage superheroes that had been a box-office success on a small budget (a big plus in this economy). Add a cast of up-and-coming young actors with a lot of buzz around them (one of them already acquainted with the up-and-coming director), and it's not unreasonable to think that Fox would expect a good return on this.

With all of that, the better question would be, "Why are they trying to kill it?" (If they actually are.)

That's an interesting take. Here is what I think happened.

After experiencing over a $40M drop at the box with the ROTSS sequel, the series was cancelled by FOX. FOX likely would have let the rights slip away, if not for a few key factors:

2007 - Marvel and FOX stopped playing nice - Feige and Story have confirmed that the character Andre Braugher played in the sequel was going to be Nick Fury, but Feige turned FOX down. With their own studio to build, Marvel was no longer bending over backwards to accomodate their licensees. I'm certain that Marvel asked for, and were denied immediate reversion after the FOX series was cancelled. With a studio to build, FOX knew the the rights held value to Marvel.

2009 - Disney buyout - By announcing the FF reboot one day after the Disney buyout, it appeared as though FOX was hoping a large chunk of cash would fall into their collective laps. That didn't happen, so FOX was faced with actually putting a movie into production or simply let the rights revert.

2011 - Marvel building momentum - In an upset, both Thor and Cap outgrossed the favored and well reviewed XM:FC at the box office. FF rights reversion would only strengthen a studio that had begun to dominate the competition. But faced with increased competition, a failed prior duology, no licensing revenue, and a character family that is very expense to commit to film, how could FOX get the financing to work?

2012 - Chronicle 2 - Josh Trank's critically and financially successful film on just a $12M budget shows FOX the template -Low budget, star free, grounded, youth appeal. The team may not resemble the 616 version - or the Ultimate version, for that matter. But superhero movies are riding a wave right now, and FOX may be able to squeak out a modest return on the reboot while keeping the rights away from the MCU juggernaut.

2014 - Backlash - It turns out that a lot of people care about Marvel's First Family. I mean really, really care about them. And putting out a version of the team that includes three male leads born within one year of each other, a twenty something Reed, an African American Johnny and a slightly built Ben...that's a big problem. And with FOX's second most expensive film opening within a few months, fanboy backlash is something of which the studio should be very concerned.

2015 - End Result - We shall see.

 

[Dr Tactics]

That's an interesting take. Here is what I think happened.

After experiencing over a $40M drop at the box with the ROTSS sequel, the series was cancelled by FOX. FOX likely would have let the rights slip away, if not for a few key factors:

2007 - Marvel and FOX stopped playing nice - Feige and Story have confirmed that the character Andre Braugher played in the sequel was going to be Nick Fury, but Feige turned FOX down. With their own studio to build, Marvel was no longer bending over backwards to accomodate their licensees. I'm certain that Marvel asked for, and were denied immediate reversion after the FOX series was cancelled. With a studio to build, FOX knew the the rights held value to Marvel.

2009 - Disney buyout - By announcing the FF reboot one day after the Disney buyout, it appeared as though FOX was hoping a large chunk of cash would fall into their collective laps. That didn't happen, so FOX was faced with actually putting a movie into production or simply let the rights revert.

2011 - Marvel building momentum - In an upset, both Thor and Cap outgrossed the favored and well reviewed XM:FC at the box office. FF rights reversion would only strengthen a studio that had begun to dominate the competition. But faced with increased competition, a failed prior duology, no licensing revenue, and a character family that is very expense to commit to film, how could FOX get the financing to work?

2012 - Chronicle 2 - Josh Trank's critically and financially successful film on just a $12M budget shows FOX the template -Low budget, star free, grounded, youth appeal. The team may not resemble the 616 version - or the Ultimate version, for that matter. But superhero movies are riding a wave right now, and FOX may be able to squeak out a modest return on the reboot while keeping the rights away from the MCU juggernaut.

2014 - Backlash - It turns out that a lot of people care about Marvel's First Family. I mean really, really care about them. And putting out a version of the team that includes three male leads born within one year of each other, a twenty something Reed, an African American Johnny and a slightly built Ben...that's a big problem. And with FOX's second most expensive film opening within a few months, fanboy backlash is something of which the studio should be very concerned.

2015 - End Result - We shall see.

 

[EssayM]

The Electro & Perry White race changes changed nothing but their own characters. Changing Johnny Storm pretty much changes the entire team & also takes up story & screen time & bringing in the Nick Fury argument is worthless. That change first happened in the comics & it helps that the actor they based the change on is him in the movies

Electro was never black in the comics, and nobody complains about that. Probably because Jamie Foxx is a great actor and, when powered up, he looks like familiarly like Electro (Ultimate Electro, close enough).

And not to beat a dead argument, but how does changing his race affect Johnny Storm's character at all? He's a cocky fighter pilot who bursts into flame and flies and annoys Ben; nothing in that requires that he be a white dude. And if your talking about him being Sue's brother, I'll gladly be the millionth person to point out how that could be explained away with a single throwaway line of dialogue and hardly anybody would bat an eyelash. You don't need to devote a whole subplot to it.

 

[wobbly]

Keep in mind that estimating loss on a movie is WW Gross /2- Production budget. by that math $289/2=144.5-130= 14.5Mil.. Also keep in mind that by the IP leasing contract they are to give Marvel 10% of the WW profits so that another 28.9 Million so thats a loss of -14.4 mil

Yeah I read a similar math on it a while back (though I think that took even more off for the additional cuts involved in the International take, which is why more emphasis is usually placed on the domestic gross.). Iirc, that went something like take 50 to 55% off the domestic total, and about 60% off the international. Add them together and that's the 'true' overall revenue, which (if above production costs can then be called profit) is also taxed as well? (you don't pay tax on losses, at least not here in the UK at any rate).

With the FF having no merchandising support too is another dis-incentive. It would usually be a natural for the lucrative toy markets and so on, but Marvel won't be putting out anything linked to this film so Fox won't get a penny there either.

There is also the DVD/Blu-ray after market sales that will add some more in the long run as well, but that aint usually enough to turn revenues like what ROTSS got into being overall worthwhile endeavours (that's why Fox pulled the plug on that run: They were simply not making the money they wanted to from it).

 

[EssayM]

That's an interesting take. Here is what I think happened.

After experiencing over a $40M drop at the box with the ROTSS sequel, the series was cancelled by FOX. FOX likely would have let the rights slip away, if not for a few key factors:

2007 - Marvel and FOX stopped playing nice - Feige and Story have confirmed that the character Andre Braugher played in the sequel was going to be Nick Fury, but Feige turned FOX down. With their own studio to build, Marvel was no longer bending over backwards to accomodate their licensees. I'm certain that Marvel asked for, and were denied immediate reversion after the FOX series was cancelled. With a studio to build, FOX knew the the rights held value to Marvel.

2009 - Disney buyout - By announcing the FF reboot one day after the Disney buyout, it appeared as though FOX was hoping a large chunk of cash would fall into their collective laps. That didn't happen, so FOX was faced with actually putting a movie into production or simply let the rights revert.

2011 - Marvel building momentum - In an upset, both Thor and Cap outgrossed the favored and well reviewed XM:FC at the box office. FF rights reversion would only strengthen a studio that had begun to dominate the competition. But faced with increased competition, a failed prior duology, no licensing revenue, and a character family that is very expense to commit to film, how could FOX get the financing to work?

2012 - Chronicle 2 - Josh Trank's critically and financially successful film on just a $12M budget shows FOX the template -Low budget, star free, grounded, youth appeal. The team may not resemble the 616 version - or the Ultimate version, for that matter. But superhero movies are riding a wave right now, and FOX may be able to squeak out a modest return on the reboot while keeping the rights away from the MCU juggernaut.

2014 - Backlash - It turns out that a lot of people care about Marvel's First Family. I mean really, really care about them. And putting out a version of the team that includes three male leads born within one year of each other, a twenty something Reed, an African American Johnny and a slightly built Ben...that's a big problem. And with FOX's second most expensive film opening within a few months, fanboy backlash is something of which the studio should be very concerned.

2015 - End Result - We shall see.

Good points, though I have a feeling that the look of the team will be much less controversial in the final cut, after they've set Jordan on fire and made Bell a giant orange rock.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

That's an interesting take. Here is what I think happened.

After experiencing over a $40M drop at the box with the ROTSS sequel, the series was cancelled by FOX. FOX likely would have let the rights slip away, if not for a few key factors:

2007 - Marvel and FOX stopped playing nice - Feige and Story have confirmed that the character Andre Braugher played in the sequel was going to be Nick Fury, but Feige turned FOX down. With their own studio to build, Marvel was no longer bending over backwards to accomodate their licensees. I'm certain that Marvel asked for, and were denied immediate reversion after the FOX series was cancelled. With a studio to build, FOX knew the the rights held value to Marvel.

2009 - Disney buyout - By announcing the FF reboot one day after the Disney buyout, it appeared as though FOX was hoping a large chunk of cash would fall into their collective laps. That didn't happen, so FOX was faced with actually putting a movie into production or simply let the rights revert.

2011 - Marvel building momentum - In an upset, both Thor and Cap outgrossed the favored and well reviewed XM:FC at the box office. FF rights reversion would only strengthen a studio that had begun to dominate the competition. But faced with increased competition, a failed prior duology, no licensing revenue, and a character family that is very expense to commit to film, how could FOX get the financing to work?

2012 - Chronicle 2 - Josh Trank's critically and financially successful film on just a $12M budget shows FOX the template -Low budget, star free, grounded, youth appeal. The team may not resemble the 616 version - or the Ultimate version, for that matter. But superhero movies are riding a wave right now, and FOX may be able to squeak out a modest return on the reboot while keeping the rights away from the MCU juggernaut.

2014 - Backlash - It turns out that a lot of people care about Marvel's First Family. I mean really, really care about them. And putting out a version of the team that includes three male leads born within one year of each other, a twenty something Reed, an African American Johnny and a slightly built Ben...that's a big problem. And with FOX's second most expensive film opening within a few months, fanboy backlash is something of which the studio should be very concerned.

2015 - End Result - We shall see.

Let's not forget this sadly lost bit of the story:

http://movies.cosmicbooknews.com/content/x-men-first-class-writers-fantastic-four-movie-reboot-it-should-be-star-wars-meets-superhero

We know that there actually was a Miller/Stentz script that I'm guessing was far more interesting than what they're working with now, but that script got dropped and general belief is because the production would have been too expensive.

 

[Kelly]

As you said, this discussion on race is beating a dead horse....it has been discussed, and discussed, and discussed....MOVE ON.

 

[EssayM]

*Cowering* Sorry, wasn't trying to start anything, just a quick rebuttal, please don't hurt me...*Cowering*

 

[Dr Tactics]

As you said, this discussion on race is beating a dead horse....it has been discussed, and discussed, and discussed....MOVE ON.

I know you might get me for this but one tidbit of thought is that Fox is shucking the small issues of the Fantastic Four as "These are just a few bigots that need to get a clue" instead of paying attention to the real dangers of going through with this an really putting a bomb.. SMH Oh well.. Sell your Fox stock NOW folks LOL!!!!

 

[Zarex]

Let's not forget this sadly lost bit of the story:

http://movies.cosmicbooknews.com/co...reboot-it-should-be-star-wars-meets-superhero

We know that there actually was a Miller/Stentz script that I'm guessing was far more interesting than what they're working with now, but that script got dropped and general belief is because the production would have been too expensive.

I did forget that interview. And while I had been hoping for rights reversion since Marvel got their studio up and running, I would have had a very difficult time criticizing a FOX produced "Star Wars meets superheroes" FF film.

 

[wobbly]

I did forget that interview. And while I had been hoping for rights reversion since Marvel got their studio up and running, I would have had a very difficult time criticizing a FOX produced "Star Wars meets superheroes" FF film.

At least we are getting 'Guardians of the Galaxy', which looks like being the next best thing

 

[Tymminator]

Johnny was not a pilot except in the 1st movies, but that really doesn't matter.

 

[starscream22]

Electro was never black in the comics, and nobody complains about that. Probably because Jamie Foxx is a great actor and, when powered up, he looks like familiarly like Electro (Ultimate Electro, close enough).

And not to beat a dead argument, but how does changing his race affect Johnny Storm's character at all? He's a cocky fighter pilot who bursts into flame and flies and annoys Ben; nothing in that requires that he be a white dude. And if your talking about him being Sue's brother, I'll gladly be the millionth person to point out how that could be explained away with a single throwaway line of dialogue and hardly anybody would bat an eyelash. You don't need to devote a whole subplot to it.

It changes the VISUAL of the type of Johnny Storm that most of us have grown accustom to. Granted there are some exceptions but for me, Human Torch isn't one of them and ironically that's FOX's fault...

Chris Evans was one of the only things FOX got right with the first two F4 films. So none of that stuff you pointed out regarding Johnny's personality matter's to me. If he doesn't have the Johnny Storm look then it's a deal breaker. PERIOD!

If the visual didn't matter there'd be no reason to watch films or read the comic books in the first place. I'd just read novels...

FOX is fixing things that weren't broken with the first 2 films and the few fans that have made their choice to like this cast are defending it by telling the rest that their choice is wrong.

Which no one is buying of course....
So here we are.

 

[wobbly]

Ok, to get back on topic I'm gonna throw out a wild guess here: Atm, and trying to put personal bias to one side, I have a feeling John Carter like numbers might be on the cards here, so maybe around $80mil domestic, and maybe (and I feel I might be being generous here) £200mil international = $280 gross. Less cuts we are down to around $120mil, less another cut to marvel, down to $100mil. Then taxes.

No merchandising support so only the after market DVD/Blu Ray deals etc to bolster that a bit later on.

All pure guesswork for obvious reasons (we haven't seen anything of it yet), so subject to revision as we learn more (if the trailers are incredible I will amend my guestimates accordingly).

Working on the assumption they aint goona go mad with the budget, this guess would have them maybe break even.

 

[Dr Tactics]

Ok, to get back on topic I'm gonna throw out a wild guess here: Atm, and trying to put personal bias to one side, I have a feeling John Carter like numbers might be on the cards here, so maybe around $80mil domestic, and maybe (and I feel I might be being generous here) £200mil international = $280 gross. Less cuts we are down to around $120mil, less another cut to marvel, down to $100mil. Then taxes.

No merchandising support so only the after market DVD/Blu Ray deals etc to bolster that a bit later on.

All pure guesswork for obvious reasons (we haven't seen anything of it yet), so subject to revision as we learn more (if the trailers are incredible I will amend my guestimates accordingly).

Working on the assumption they aint goona go mad with the budget, this guess would have them maybe break even.

Of course forgetting those promotion costs (Even for the DVD/Blu-Ray release) for the over all costs.. Thats when the bomb blows BOOM!!

 

[Dr Tactics]

This possibly would be better served in this thread..

Here's another thought.. I honestly feel that Fox really doesn't realize the gravity on how much money there gonna lose as a whole.. I say this because...

First watch this..
[YT]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQznvJ1Rfw[/YT]



Notice he said he was "Surprised".. Also if you google the subject and bring up all the online news and trade articles, most of the comments are negative but the writer doesn't follow up to see the reactions so all Fox see's is that the trades are buzzing and usually the puppets are gushing about this production thinking that folks are really excited when most are the opposite... So, I really don't think they really know whats going on and they're gonna make this film, lose a bundle, and then wonder why (Like Disney with John Carter or any other flop for that matter) it was such a bomb.. Maybe I'm wrong.. IDK

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

This possibly would be better served in this thread..

Here's another thought.. I honestly feel that Fox really doesn't realize the gravity on how much money there gonna lose as a whole.. I say this because...

First watch this..
[YT]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQznvJ1Rfw[/YT]



Notice he said he was "Surprised".. Also if you google the subject and bring up all the online news and trade articles, most of the comments are negative but the writer doesn't follow up to see the reactions so all Fox see's is that the trades are buzzing and usually the puppets are gushing about this production thinking that folks are really excited when most are the opposite... So, I really don't think they really know whats going on and they're gonna make this film, lose a bundle, and then wonder why (Like Disney with John Carter or any other flop for that matter) it was such a bomb.. Maybe I'm wrong.. IDK

This level of industry cluelessness is exactly why this film is going to hit them where it hurts. According to Fox, we're all "just going to see it anyway". When this thing flops and they lose millions, they will deserve it. I also question Trank's judgement for betting on this horse and not divorcing himself sooner. This could really hurt his career.