Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread - Part 1

[Frodo]

The Last Jedi was the hitting of the iceberg. Complete with Total Chad's explaining how SW Could IN NO WAY Sink, whereas the rest of us were 'THIS THING IS MADE OF IRON. WE ASSURE YOU IT CAN'.

With Solo, the boat just cracked in half. There are people claiming its only a flesh wound... as they instruct the band to keep playing and ignore the damage.

JJ has to figure out some way to magically fix the ship, before him and Iger are the last ones to drown as they follow it to the bottom on the stern with Episode 9.

I've been saying for a few months on these boards that Lucasfilm needed to rethink their current creative strategy and that the current course wasn't sustainable for the long term. Regardless of what I may think of the current films , their current creative course just isn't sustainable in the long term.

That's why I keep saying they can't move forward and go backward at the same time. They have to start fresh and make a clean break from the past films.

The problem is that alot of people were only looking one step ahead, i.e. TFA, RO, TLJ, as opposed to looking down the road at how you keep the franchise strong for the[I] long[/I] haul beyond the first few films.

I suspect Solo was a wake up call to Lucasfilm, and I think it will force them out of using the OT films and characters as crutches , and instead ,move toward new characters and stories to sustain the franchise.

 

[Iceman]

$2 billion. Nearly half of that in North America alone. If they didn't, who did? Butts in seats are butts in seats and $935 million domestic is a number that won't be hit for a good long while. Neither of the Marvel movies this year came within $230 million of it.

TPM also wasn't well-received. TFA was. That has never been in question, given it broke nearly every speed record(fastest yada yada) its first month out.

The key here is you had people at the helm who took a couple gripes and tried to claim backlash so they could **** all over the screen with whatever they desired and called it TLJ.

No... we can't give the fans what THEY want. We have to give them what WE want, even if we have to force it down their throats!

That type of toxicity destroys franchises. And so far, they're doing splendid at it.

My point is that TPM was much, much worse than TFA. The debate with TFA is about how good it is while the debate about TPM is how bad it is. It's one of the worst films that I've anticipated that I've ever seen. And in spite of that many people went to see it many times before reality finally kicked in. Some even said Jar Jar and Jake were possibly ok while the madness was still clouding their eyes. t: And in spite of all that it was still a massive film in box office numbers at the time and adjusts to about 80% of TFA's domestic gross. The hype gave it those numbers by itself even with a turd of a movie.

And TFA isn't good enough to withstand a sequel that damages one of the main reasons why it made those numbers, good will from the past. The characters introduced in TFA can't hold the fort by themselves as TLJ also managed to do them no favours, at the same time as destroying Luke. It's a big enough deal to turn many people off Star Wars and for me it just made me lose interest. SW can survive bad films like the prequels. Betraying the key hero that started it all is a step too far (and for me takes away the point of everything else to an extent). I know there are a good number of people who liked even the Luke ending of TLJ, but they aren't relevant to declining box office numbers as they aren't likely to be watching future films any less.

 

[jmc]

This isn't a decision they would have done lightly. I am surprised there's still talk of a second trilogy, but didn't specify which trilogy that would be. Right now, it's really hard to gauge exactly why this was done, but it's certainly a combination of things. The journalists on Twitter are saying everything will be fine with Star Wars but I'm not convinced. I think they are making the assumption based on history and not on situation as it stands because for Disney to wave the white flag on this indicates to me all is not well.

 

[Last Skywalker]

And TFA isn't good enough to withstand a sequel that damages one of the main reasons why it made those numbers, good will from the past. The characters introduced in TFA can't hold the fort by themselves as TLJ also managed to do them no favours, at the same time as destroying Luke. It's a big enough deal to turn many people off Star Wars and for me it just made me lose interest. SW can survive bad films like the prequels. Betraying the key hero that started it all is a step too far (and for me takes away the point of everything else to an extent). I know there are a good number of people who liked even the Luke ending of TLJ, but they aren't relevant to declining box office numbers as they aren't likely to be watching future films any less.

You're preaching to the choir on TLJ.

But TFA? I'll defend that. It did what it needed to do, and did it well. I'm sure some people had issue, but they were the right people having issue because even if they hated it, they didn't effect the gross. And it doesn't matter what gets made, some people will always have issue. Guess what... some people had issue with Episode IV back in 1977 too, but we didn't have an internet back then where their opinion meant much.. nor were they likely to scream it from the corner.

But one of those people that apparently had issue, though? Rian Johnson. And he made a point of pretty much taking everything people liked and were expecting after TFA and metaphorically chucked it over Luke's shoulder.

Yay?

Oh well.. Solo was first up to try to take a drink from the well and died. If they keep this up, Episode 9 next. The word on the street is that its expected 9 wraps up the Rey/Kylo/Finn/Poe's story. If so, they will have learned nothing.

 

[jmc]

TFA captured the spirit of Star Wars, which is ultimately what it needed to do. The problem then was TLJ threw that all away. And I don't know why Lucasfilm allowed that to happen. One day, when all of this comes out in a book or documentary, we'll know the full story. My hope is that the lack of any clear plan or vision as to what Star Wars should be is the reason for the situation being where it is right now. My fear however is Disney, and specifically Kennedy, knew full well what they were doing and didn't care because their primary goal was about finding a new audience for the franchise.

 

[Silver Surfer]

TLJ has done irreparable harm to this franchise and especially its fanbase, and I'm not sure SW9 can make it whole again. One thing is for sure there is now way they should go froward with the Rain Johnson trilogy, that has way too much toxicity and baggage attached to it.

 

[2kt09]

Haha, just dawned on me.

Kathleen Kennedy: Remember when X-Men were trying to get those random prequel spinoffs off the ground?
Lucasfilm: Yeah...
Kathleen Kennedy: Let's throw our biggest resources into that.
Lucasfilm: ...

Spoiler

 

[jmc]

Looks like they might be giving up on up and coming directors too.

https://screenrant.com/disney-star-wars-directors-future/

 

[Stark Bauer]

I wouldn’t mind Reylo ruling the galaxy...whatever the outcome I have confidence that JJ will right the ship. It was a poor judgment to take it away from him for Episode VIII as he would have honoured the legacy of Luke Skywalker and the OT.

OT- Solo is set to finish with 208-218 million domestically,

My worldwide prediction is $363-383 million total worldwide gross which at the low end is less than what Deadpool made domestic alone!

 

[Aximili86]

That's great news about the change in tack on directors, if true.

It'd be overreaction if it was just the slight complications with Edwards, but given we've got Trank, Trevorrow, and Lord & Miller at this point, it's becoming a theme.

More Howard types is clearly the way to go. Just go mine the tried-and-true Lucasfilm & Amblin & broader Disney rosters. Bird, Johnston, Dante, hell, even Zemeckis or Campbell if they're interested. Brian Henson might be an option, could get some pretty cool practical alien work out of him. Maybe down the road after the TV show throw one Favreau's way.

Even some of J.J.'s circle/crew, Reeves (post-Batman of course) might be an option, Goddard, those guys would work great for something a little darker.

They've definitely gotta get out of the "one or two hits, indie movies or animated, not a lot of experience to speak of, let's throw you 150 million dollars and hope for the best" mindset though.

 

[Mandon Knight]

I appreciate up & coming directors need transition to 'larger scale' films like 'blockbuster' level work but as is being said, there is a massive shift from smaller scale indie flicks to suddenly being handed template films with over 40 years of heritage.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I nominate Genndy Tartakovsky as director

 

[dataSlave]

People shouldn’t trust Deadline.

It wasn't just Deadline. There were too many media outlets citing estimates of $155-$170 million for OW just a week before Solo opened. There had to be an underlying source, probably Disney itself.

 

[dataSlave]

Solo lost about 25% of its screens starting this past weekend. Considering that, the $10 million for the WE and 40% drops for Monday and Tuesday are quite respectable. Of course it's too little, too late since the base numbers are already so low that reducing the size of drops at this point won't affect the final totals that much. But legs might be a bit better than the drops from the 2nd and 3rd WE were suggesting.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The hard and fast fall of TLJ after the first weekend was worse than Solo's domestically and that was helped by December. Solo might take longer than TLJ (23 days) to hit 90% of its final gross if it makes around $211M or more (RO was 25 days and TFA was 30 days).

Other Star Wars movies versus Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
Rogue One: -37.46% first weekend, -43.18% final. 5.72 pont drop
The Last Jedi: -11.27% first weekend, -33.79% final. 22.52 point drop
Solo: -65.95% first weekend, -76.06% current (compared on day 26). 10.11 point drop

Other Avengers movies versus Marvel's The Avengers (2012)
Age of Ultron: -7.79% first weekend, -26.37% final. 18.58 point drop
Infinity War: +24.23% first weekend, +10.90% current (compared on day 54). 13.33 pont drop

 

[Frodo]

I appreciate up & coming directors need transition to 'larger scale' films like 'blockbuster' level work but as is being said, there is a massive shift from smaller scale indie flicks to suddenly being handed template films with over 40 years of heritage.

No question, experience is definitely a factor. At the same time, imo, the issue isn't so much about Lucasfilm relying on up and coming filmmakers, as it is Lucasfilm knowing what type of SW films they want from these up and coming directors and established writer/directors.

Up until now, the model has seem to have been a "do your own thing" with each writer/director, only for Lucasfilm to say " No, that's not what we want, do it like this...".

Its more of an issue of Lucasfilm knowing what they want their particular films from the start. If they don't get that aspect straightened out, they're gonna run into the same issues as before except with bigger named more experienced writer/directors.

 

[Ozbridge]

It wasn't just Deadline. There were too many media outlets citing estimates of $155-$170 million for OW just a week before Solo opened. There had to be an underlying source, probably Disney itself.

I don’t mean Deadline literally, I mean Deadline as in the number the press estimated before the opening weekend. As soon as they compared the pre-sale of a Star-freaking-Wars movie to Black Panther it was clear that 3-day would be 100M max, plus RT was so-so means so-so leg. Plus SW is dead everywhere except Europe (where WC would start soon). Best case scenario was 100/ 250/ 500M.

Okay I'll bite.

Voted for 400-450M domestic and 800-900M worldwide.

It isn’t that I don’t trust tracking. Here, a quote from me 3 weeks before release, you can see that I posted that right after Silver Surfer posted the long-range forecast from BoxofficePro, my reasoning was along the line of 160-170M 3-day (forecasts tend to be slightly conservative), 2.5X (reasonable for a summer sequel, or in this case, a prequel), 50% total box office coming from domestic (very broad, would not recommend). So around 160/ 400/ 800M on the lower end.

But then they started to compare pre-sale with Black Panther, and RT was released, there was no way those 150M 3-day estimates would materialize.

 

[sueb1863]

Just posted in the Last Jedi forum about a group wanting to remake The Last Jedi. They claim it's not a joke and Rian Johnson has tweeted his support.

I think Solo is going to be a good size hit on DVD and streaming services and the most often heard comment will be "I don't know why it flopped, that was a good movie!"

 

[Stark Bauer]

Just posted in the Last Jedi forum about a group wanting to remake The Last Jedi. They claim it's not a joke and Rian Johnson has tweeted his support.

I think Solo is going to be a good size hit on DVD and streaming services and the most often heard comment will be "I don't know why it flopped, that was a good movie!"

Rain Johnson is a hypocrite

 

[Ozbridge]

Just posted in the Last Jedi forum about a group wanting to remake The Last Jedi. They claim it's not a joke and Rian Johnson has tweeted his support.

Not just Rian Johnson, other writers and directors also made sarcastic tweets about it.

Most hilarious is probably Chuck Wendig

I have questions

first question, if your team of producers is covering the budget, why do you need people to give you money

second question, I notice your website is just people entering their email address and the amount of money they'll give, but they don't actually give you money

third question, what

fourth question, seriously, what the hell

okay fifth question, you now have over six million dollars (!) pledged, but on june 15th you ran a poll which got 15 people

are those 15 people giving you around $400k each, and if you, can you introduce me to these people, I could use some cash, I'm a little light

sixth question, are you high, and how high are you, and on what? okay that's a three-part question, I apologize

seventh question, are you okay?

eighth question, will your movie make more or less than the 1.3 billion dollars the last jedi made

or do you have a different profit metric in mind, like cookies, or midichlorians

question nine

please prove that the best writing is done by committee

show your work

doodles are permissible, as long as they are suitably hilarious and/or of dongs

big question ten

why would people who loved the movie go and then... rewrite the movie

like, why

are they also high

did you get them high on yard mushrooms or brake line cleaner or what

question eleven and hey thanks for being patient with these

you're going to keep carrie fisher in the film, which is great, really an honor

but ummm

ahhhh

trying to ask this delicately but have you read the news? google-searched her recently? omg are you ghostbusters

question eleven-and-a-half

if you ARE ghostbusters, are you MEN ghostbusters

are LADY GHOSTBUSTERS a no-go in your clubhouse?

I sorta know the answer to this one already, I'm just playing

question twelve

you have lawyers, right

question thirteen

will luke be a cool incel

will he be an awesome hero-bro who has no time for the new Empire of Sithy Justice Warriors who have arisen to plague the galaxy

or maybe he'll fight Soyth Lords

get it

soy

because, I dunno, soy

question fourteen who's doing your CGI

is it Steve from next door

Steve, that guy can really CGI up some hot, sassy memes

question fifteen

okay this is really more a comment than a question

but two words

just hear me out

two words

"BUFF YODA"

numero sixteen

let's talk about these rad rewards

the personalized lightsaber, will that be like, the lightsaber hums my name, or will you just write my name on it in Sharpie like I'm in Starbucks or what

numero sixteen part two

where will the premiere be held

hollywood? volcano lair? skellig michael? steve's mom's basement? orrrr

here it is, question seventeen, and we're almost done here, thanks for taking the time

have you thought about, like, just

NOT remaking the movie

like you've got millions of dollars already, you could go and buy all kinds of cool **** with that, like, jet-skis and

I dunno, more jet-skis

OMG you could buy a ROBOT CHEWBACCA

think about it

forget the remake, just make a ROBOT CHEWBACCA who is your pal and who will carry you to safety and help you bring groceries in from the car

surely that is a good idea, we can split the profits, you and me

#RobotChewbacca

or you could remake a whole buncha other movies

you could remake GHOSTBUSTERS again but with all guys, maybe just four Bruce Willises running around with proton packs saying cool lines about being cool dudes

like YIPPIE KAY AY SLIMER ****ER

k that's not great, we'll work on it

what about GREMLINS 3

if you guys are rolling in cash, let's get together, get your producers with my producers* and we'll just make this ****ing other movie instead

*my producers are these of possums, but they're rich, it's cool

AAAAANYway thanks for answering my questions, the world is really looking forward to your

*checks notes*

remake of THE LAST JEDI, which isn't weird at all and is a totally normal thing to want and claim to be able to do

*squints*

Our team of producers is offering to cover the budget for a remake of this thread about the remake of THE LAST JEDI. Share this and spread the word to let @Twitter know you want this! This isn't a joke, we're ready to have the convo now! #RemakeTheThreadAboutTheTheLastJediRemake

 

[Iceman]

You're preaching to the choir on TLJ.

But TFA? I'll defend that. It did what it needed to do, and did it well. I'm sure some people had issue, but they were the right people having issue because even if they hated it, they didn't effect the gross. And it doesn't matter what gets made, some people will always have issue. Guess what... some people had issue with Episode IV back in 1977 too, but we didn't have an internet back then where their opinion meant much.. nor were they likely to scream it from the corner.

But one of those people that apparently had issue, though? Rian Johnson. And he made a point of pretty much taking everything people liked and were expecting after TFA and metaphorically chucked it over Luke's shoulder.

Yay?

Oh well.. Solo was first up to try to take a drink from the well and died. If they keep this up, Episode 9 next. The word on the street is that its expected 9 wraps up the Rey/Kylo/Finn/Poe's story. If so, they will have learned nothing.

I don't mean to be a pain so I'll make this my last post nitpicking this particular issue. I like TFA btw, would have liked to see it open more doors and do more new things and there are a couple of things I didn't love in it, but otherwise its fine and a solid effort after all these years of crying about prequels.

TFA's domestic gross is spectacular, but TPM adjusted is still only 20% away from it even though TFA is much more than 20% better. In other words if you want to use gross as a open and shut determinant of how good TFA is then by extension TPM will be pretty great too and also one of the best films of all time. Both of these films got their vast excesses from the goodwill of the prior films and only needed to be crap and good respectively to go stellar. That isn't sufficient for nearly all other regular great non SW films and especially non franchise films, no matter how good. You need in built hype or phenomenon. Avatar and Titanic are 2 others which I hardly ever see mentioned in favourite or best film lists and they can beat many of the films that do make both of those lists put together.

Without crazy goodwill built up or that phenomenon status which is as much about timing and luck as anything (although you still need to be at least decent to take advantage), it doesn't matter how good your film is as is demonstrated by hardly any of the best non-franchise films ever getting anywhere near close financially to TFA or TPM. Hype is demonstrably more important than quality even though quality is also a major factor. And this is also why TLJ still has huge numbers and any negative effect from what we're discussing only stopped the film doing even higher numbers and having better legs.

Anyway as I said I apologise for being a pain and seeing that one point through as I know that wasn't the focus of any of your posts and I was homing on one small part of them just because I wanted to get it out of my system.

TFA paid respect to the built up goodwill and was well rewarded while TLJ absolutely didn't which is now why I think the whole thing has just lost a bunch of GA fans for the future. Solo may have underperformed for a variety of combined reasons but I think TLJ fallout is one of those factors, whether large or small. The prequels did a job on Darth Vader but mucking around with Luke Skywalker is the one place you're supposed to leave sacred to many (yes many GA guys too - he is one of their only important lifetime heroic characters).

 

[FunkMiller]

Just posted in the Last Jedi forum about a group wanting to remake The Last Jedi. They claim it's not a joke and Rian Johnson has tweeted his support.

This is peak whining man-baby.

 

[dataSlave]

For contrast compare what Incredibles 2 has done. It did nearly as much OW as Solo's entire run so far. It's Wednesday number was bigger than Solo's Memorial Day box office and 4x Solo's first Wednesday. I2 made more money its OW in Mexico as Solo did in China! That's pretty shocking and really puts things in perspective.



Solo has been a little north of $1 million per day Mon-Wed. $197 mil cume now and should cross $200 million domestically this weekend.

 

[Mask&Cape]

For contrast compare what Incredibles 2 has done. It did nearly as much OW as Solo's entire run so far. It's Wednesday number was bigger than Solo's Memorial Day box office and 4x Solo's first Wednesday. I2 made more money its OW in Mexico as Solo did in China! That's pretty shocking and really puts things in perspective.



Solo has been a little north of $1 million per day Mon-Wed. $197 mil cume now and should cross $200 million domestically this weekend.

Is it shocking?

Star Wars simply is not a thing in China. No one really cares about it. Didn't the three other films bomb there too?

I lived in China for several years and meet one person (out of a few thousand that I meet) who had seen the movies - no one else had either heard of them or were even familiar with the most iconic images like Vader.

 

[Iceman]

Is it shocking?

Star Wars simply is not a thing in China. No one really cares about it. Didn't the three other films bomb there too?

I lived in China for several years and meet one person (out of a few thousand that I meet) who had seen the movies - no one else had either heard of them or were even familiar with the most iconic images like Vader.

TFA did $124.2m.

R1 - $69.5m

TLJ - $42.6m

Solo to date - $16.5m