Bruce_Wayne29
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The thing is with Tom being the guy who gets cast in the new film is that the start up time would be less. He's established already in the fandom, albeit only as the 'guy on tv', but he has a built-in fanbase.
Routh has his fans and I understand those people not understanding why he's not being given a chance, but love it or hate SR the truth was that it wasn't anywhere as successful as the studio needed it to be. Unfortunately, Routh is tied to that franchise in everyone's mind so he can't come back unless they bring the kid and a ridiculous Lex Luthor back.
He's a no-go. Sad for him, I think he seems like a nice guy and I've liked other roles he'd been in, but any baggage from the movie is going to be brought back up if he's in the next one.
As for Tom, the SV haters may think there is baggage from the show, but why? Next to no one really watches it, in the grand scheme. Getting 3 million viewers a week is about the best it can do.
How many people saw SR in the theatres? Probably several times that many.
How many people saw SE on cable or rented it even if they didn't see it in the theatre? Probably many more times than the number who had seen it in the theatre.
So, a conservative estimate would be probably tens of millions of people, maybe, had seen SR.
So who's the worse when it comes to baggage?
Brandon Routh who had tens of millions who had seen SR?
Or Tom Welling who is in Smallville which only has a core audience of about 3 million people?
The thing worth noting, however is that Tom's following may be small but it's fanatical, as you are all probably aware.
Those are the people that will see the film no matter what and if the film is good will likely see it again and again in the theatre and buy the DVD or Blu-Ray and other related merchandise.
That is what gives a film 'legs' and keeps it in the theatres longer. It's how Titanic and Avatar made so much money, people saw it over and over and over.
Hollywood is a business more than anything else, so if it makes business sense for them to sign Tom Welling as Superman they will do it. Then they will try to justify it later to the public to placate any haters that come out and rant about him being cast.
I honestly think Tom Welling being cast will put more butts in the seats.
Hell, he's probably the only reason the dreck that was The Fog made back its production in only a couple of weeks. It certainly wasn't the story or the other cast.
If it makes sense for the studio financially, it won't matter what some vocal fans on the internet think, they will cast Tom Welling.
However, I'm not going to hold my breath. Like Tom said last summer at ComicCon, it isn't as simple as him wanting to do it or not. There will have to be a lot of things that will need to align for Tom to get the part and, although I want him to be in the film, I know that the chances are the best at this point.
There are just too many variables that we as fans are probably not even aware of in addition to the ones that we are, so his chance may not be great, but I think he's probably got a better chance than an unknown in terms of already having a fanbase.
I hope he gets it and I'll be disappointed if he doesn't, but I'm not going to let it break my heart like it did back when SR went to Brandon.
Though I disagree that SV's fan base is just those 3 million viewers in the US (it has a big following worldwide and there are also those that download it legally or illegally and don't count as viewers and above all those that simply follow it by buying the dvd sets) I do agree with all the rest you said.
Money wise, Tom is the best option they got.
I do believe that Warner Bros. won't be the problem this time, the question lies with how big a deal Snyder may make regarding Tom being cast or possibly lobbied by Warners to be Superman.
Though Snyder is a great filmmaker and has make really good films (especially Watchmen) but he hasn't really had a huge blockbuster (aside from 300) that justifies the kind of pull to go against Warner if they do decide that Tom should be cast.
The biggest opposition to that move (and who does have pull) is Nolan who Warner thinks is the almighty God of movies (at least until the Dark Knight Rises premieres and they realize that without Ledger's death as a promotion vehicle and the 3-D conversion to help garner a few more bucks they won't do another billion dollars in revenue).
Nolan could be against the move by himself or Snyder could ask for his help in taking a stand for an "unknown" move if he himself decides against the casting of Tom.
We'll just have to wait and see.


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