Infinity War Infinity War Box Office (poll is for the first film)

[Iceman]

IW would have to sell more tickets than Avengers WW to hit $1.5b. Yes there's O/S growth - particularly in Asia but the exchange rate in 2012 was highly favorable.

To put the Avengers O/S performance in perspective - CW did better O/S numbers in local currency even though Avengers did $150m more in dollars.

There's been so much overseas growth since then that a lot more tickets are definitely going to be sold. For eg China went from 86m - 240m from Avengers to AoU. The exchange rate between the US and China has stayed between 6 and 7 from 2012 to now, not in line with the exponential overseas growth that's taken place and on top of that sequels to franchises that take hold are king overseas.

 

[Panacea]

I'm not sure why anyone would believe that $1.5bn is the low end of the spectrum given that no Marvel movie has ever done better than that, and Infinity War is arguably less of an event movie than The Avengers was.

 

[Iceman]

Exceptional then. I just think if we get to the point where 1.5 billion is seen as anything but incredible, then we need to get our expectations in check. American audiences more then anywhere else on the planet seem to be fickle moviegoers, particularly about sequels, so even if it grows overseas the domestic may still drop, or even do a 100+ million jump increase from AoU, but still not hit 600 m.

I have no doubt that 1.6 billion+ is possible, I'm just too cynical to predict it so matter-of-factly like some, especially with Deadpool 2 moving closer.

Yes. IMO 1.5B is exceptional for all films bar well received Star Wars Episode films and well received Avengers sequels. Ultron proved that by almost getting it 3 years ago without the novelty value of the first film, less hype IMO than IW and a less than perfect reception. TLJ also with an inferior reception to the prior films (even if still good overall) is going to get over $1.3B. With overall good reception I think Episode films and Avengers films will finish at pretty much that point and that is great, just wouldn't really cause much surprise.

Getting in the 1.6B plus range will take something exceptional and I think IW has a fair chance of seriously catching fire if executed in the right way (and with the Russos again I thin there is a decent chance of that), as some aspects of it are unprecedented. We've had superhero teamup films before of course but it does feel like they are trying something a lot more ambitious here than with AoU. You can't make a film like this without a lot of prior films that have performed well and introduced all tehse characters as a foundation which makes the attempt itself very rare.

 

[Iceman]

I'm not sure why anyone would believe that $1.5bn is the low end of the spectrum given that no Marvel movie has ever done better than that, and Infinity War is arguably less of an event movie than The Avengers was.

Most of the other other Marvel films aren't relevant at all. They are mostly solo character films which had no shot of getting anywhere near this number. The only ones that are relevant are Avengers and AoU (and you can make a case for CW, even though it loses a big chunk just by being called a Captain America film). Not one person has ever predicted a number in that range for any other film so they are all not part of the discussion aside from being a great support to the Avengers films, and of course making them possible in the first place.

And if it ends up being less of an event movie than Avengers (I don't think we'll truly know till we see the marketing and hype nearer release) then it's not necessarily going to do huge numbers, but it should at least beat AoU and that already did over $1.4B 3 years ago with a less than perfect reception. If it has a reception worse than AoU, then the legs could suffer a lot and it might be a different story.

 

[liesse00]

If Black Panther can top one if not both Avengers movies opening weekends, how much can Infinity War make with all the characters in it? This is going to be very interesting to watch play out.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, and Infinity War having such a strong Wakandan connection and secondary characters from Black Panther can only help it. The MCU is kicking up a gear now.

 

[Panacea]

If Black Panther can top one if not both Avengers movies opening weekends, how much can Infinity War make with all the characters in it? This is going to be very interesting to watch play out.

It'll be very interesting to see what the numbers are like given how close together the movies are. If Infinity War and Ant-Man and the Wasp both do well then we can probably expect four or more MCU movies a year from 2020 onwards, especially with all the X-Men material Disney will likely soon have.

 

[KaijuDude1992]

As crazy as it might sound IW is no longer a lock to win the year anymore. Black Panther is heading towards a total domestic gross over $500M which I honestly thought might have been the max for IW, but now I have no idea. It should still win in terms of WW gross and the OW, but legs are a whole issue, and competition for BP is crap in comparison to IW which has to deal with both Deadpool 2 and Solo in May.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I see 500 m for IW.

Meanwhile BP is looking at 550 m.

WW, BP could make 1.2 billion and IW around 1.5 b.

 

[Kuwolski]

It depends what the opening weekend is. I'm expecting an excellent film with a scale not yet seen before in the MCU, a 210 m+ opening, and a multiplier no lower then 2.4.

Of course none of this could happen, so I'd say 500 m domestic is a reasonable expectation.

I predicted 1.2-1.4 in the poll, but I now think the success of BP will give it a boost. Not that it needed it.

 

[markjoedelonge]

1.6 billion

 

[007]

this movie will make more than the force awakens.

after the opening of black panther, and the avengers will comfortably out do that.

this film is an event that a ridiculous number of people want to see.

 

[AvengerPA]

this movie will make more than the force awakens.

after the opening of black panther, and the avengers will comfortably out do that.

this film is an event that a ridiculous number of people want to see.

I don't think it will outdo The Force Awakens. It will outdo Black Panther. The three-day weekend will be around $210 million, making it Marvel's best opening.

 

[BigThor]

This movie will definitely outdo Black Panther by a noticeable margin, I can't believe people are thinking otherwise.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This movie will definitely outdo Black Panther by a noticeable margin, I can't believe people are thinking otherwise.

It's not even a guarantee IW will match BP's OW let alone BP's legs.

Most box office nerds pegged IW at around 475 m DOM before this weekend.

Meanwhile BP is heading to 600 m DOM.

Unless you're taking worldwide numbers.

 

[JtheDreamer]

$1.8 billion is the floor. Not a doubt in my mind.

It's an event movie in every sense of the word with 10 years worth of connective tissue coming full circle, not to mention fresh off the huge success of Ragnarok and Black Panther.

 

[Iceman]

It's not even a guarantee IW will match BP's OW let alone BP's legs.

Most box office nerds pegged IW at around 475 m DOM before this weekend.

Meanwhile BP is heading to 600 m DOM.

Unless you're taking worldwide numbers.

475m sounds pretty low given AoU which wasn't received as well as Avengers and BP did 459m.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Civil War WW (1.154 billion) is a realistic benchmark.

Iron Man 3 (1.212 billion) is possible but not easy. Makes a good final target tho.

 

[Iceman]

I think those would have been reasonable targets if this was merely an Avengers 3 with the same team plus say 2 new members. I think IW is shooting higher than that and will have more weight with the GA.

 

[ultradog]

Civil War WW (1.154 billion) is a realistic benchmark.

Iron Man 3 (1.212 billion) is possible but not easy. Makes a good final target tho.

I'll guesstimate $1.8B - your 1.2B benchmark... PLUS many boosts:

+$100M for the cachet of the Avengers name, rather than IM or CA.
+$100M for it having a major Black Panther scene
+$100M for it joining the Avengers with the Guardians of the Galaxy
+$100M for Spider-Man, Thor, Doctor Strange - all recent film successes
+$100M for the awesome trailer and the sure mega-hype that is coming
+$100M for it being the culmination story of 10 years of MCU movies

These numbers are more facetious than calculated, but just giving an idea of what this movie has going for it.

You can also add a boost for just the growing addiction the general audience has for anything MCU, based on their recent unbroken string of successes.

I watched the Super Bowl with a group of about 20, none CBM fans to my knowledge, and when the IW commercial came on, everyone was silent and then said stuff like "Yeah, that's the one!".

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Most box office nerds pegged IW at around 475 m DOM before this weekend.

LMAO. How did these fools estimate that the film with the most viewed trailer of all-time* would make any less than 600m? Are they basing it on Age of Ultron? Because while it was a generally well received film, it didn't have anywhere near the hype and buildup that Infinity War has. I loved Age of Ultron, but it only introduced 2 new heroes and the scale was actually smaller than the first Avengers movie in a lot of ways. Even the 30 second Super Bowl spot for Infinity War, which contains barely any new footage, has over 33m views on Youtube, which is almost as much as both of The Last Jedi's trailers and only a few million away from having more than Black Panther's most viewed trailer.



*And yes, I know SING was the previous record holder, but that movie has a ton of videos with ridiculously high views for some reason. I assume it has something to do with kids watching them over and over again.

Civil War WW (1.154 billion) is a realistic benchmark.

Iron Man 3 (1.212 billion) is possible but not easy. Makes a good final target tho.

I don't know if you're talking about Black Panther or Infinity War, but both movies are going to do better than that. If IW delivers on the scale it's promising and is critically acclaimed (85%+ on Rotten Tomatoes) it's going to pass 2b worldwide pretty handily.

 

[Limonade]

I'm putting my hat in and going for 2 for 4, in my predictions.

It'll match Avengers and might surpass it. Slightly.

 

[liveman789]

I think they big key here is how the film is received. I think part of the reason why BP has been making an ass ton of money is how stellar the reviews have been. If IW gets AoU like reviews, BP will win IMO.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

75% is still certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, and even if it gets the same type of reviews as AoU, Infinity War is still soooo much bigger. I don't think it'll do less than Black Panther unless it's got mediocre to bad reviews. IMO:

100% > $2.7B+ (Highest grossing movie ever)
95-99% range > $2.5B (Just below Avatar)
85-94% range > $2.1B (A bit over The Force Awakens)
75-84% range > $1.8B (Just below $2B)
60-74% range > $1.4B (Age of Ultron numbers)
40-59% range > $1.1B (Barely over a billion)
below 40% > $850K (Typical superhero movie numbers)

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

LMAO. How did these fools estimate that the film with the most viewed trailer of all-time* would make any less than 600m? Are they basing it on Age of Ultron? Because while it was a generally well received film, it didn't have anywhere near the hype and buildup that Infinity War has. I loved Age of Ultron, but it only introduced 2 new heroes and the scale was actually smaller than the first Avengers movie in a lot of ways. Even the 30 second Super Bowl spot for Infinity War, which contains barely any new footage, has over 33m views on Youtube, which is almost as much as both of The Last Jedi's trailers and only a few million away from having more than Black Panther's most viewed trailer.



*And yes, I know SING was the previous record holder, but that movie has a ton of videos with ridiculously high views for some reason. I assume it has something to do with kids watching them over and over again.


I don't know if you're talking about Black Panther or Infinity War, but both movies are going to do better than that. If IW delivers on the scale it's promising and is critically acclaimed (85%+ on Rotten Tomatoes) it's going to pass 2b worldwide pretty handily.

What are your DOM and WW predictions for BP and IW?

Put it all on the table.