Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[TheNextNolan22]

Is anyone else buying tickets for the midnight showing that has already purchased their 7pm June 13th advanced tickets?

Or am I the only one?

Same. t:

 

[kendalag]

Is anyone else buying tickets for the midnight showing that has already purchased their 7pm June 13th advanced tickets?

Or am I the only one?

I'm planning on seeing it @ the screening in 2D. ... if it's amazing, I'll probably see it again at midnight in 3D.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

3 tracking companies/theater chains have opening weekend tracking ...

From last week
RS - 125
BTC - 125

New today
MTC - 130 (just released @ hsx.com)

Man, it this film fails to break 100, it's going to look bad for the tracking systems.

We'll see in a little over 3 1/2 weeks.

Good news! I hope they're correct.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Sorry, I saw it everywhere else figured the cat was out of the bag.

Here's a tip, major movie forums are wrought with spoilers 4 days after a movie premieres. I can only apologize so much.

Well then, Marvin, I guess we both learned something today.

 

[The Shield]

Same. t:

I'm planning on seeing it @ the screening in 2D. ... if it's amazing, I'll probably see it again at midnight in 3D.

Sweet! I'm not crazy.

I just don't think I could only watch it once in 24 hours. t:

 

[Project862006]

i am not surprised star trek into darkness didn't do that well people forget star trek didn't actually do that well

snow white and the huntsman made more than star trek(09)

 

[Liam_H]

Odd comparison.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

I believe that STID has good WOM and will have some legs, it's overseas collection will be better than the first one too.

For me STID was a 9. Absolutely loved it, and a couple of parts almost had me in tears! I saw it Friday and immediately wanted to see it again, so today I saw it in 3D IMAX. Not a fan of 3D, but I've got to hand it to them it looked brilliant. I'm surprised the B.O. wasn't better than it was, because imo It's a much better movie than IM3. Hopefully the great word of mouth this film is getting will assure that it has long legs. I'd certainly see it for a third time.

MOS's OW B.O. I think depends on how good WB's advertising push is in the last few weeks leading up to the release, and if we keep getting compelling new imagery with each subsequent spot. If the film is great and it resonates with audiences outside of the North American market, then 1 billion should be doable. If however, WB's hasn't got the message out to enough of the GA that this movie has zero to do with SR, then it might not do as good as we all hope.

I think one of their strongest weapons is actually Henry. They need a couple of more spots, like the Lois interrogation scene where he and Amy are flirting and making goo goo eyes at each other. In that scene, they are so playful, and Henry simply oozes charm and charisma. Amy isn't too shabby to look at either!

 

[N7 Joseph Shepard]

For me STID was a 9. Absolutely loved it, and a couple of parts almost had me in tears! I saw it Friday and immediately wanted to see it again, so today I saw it in 3D IMAX. Not a fan of 3D, but I've got to hand it to them it looked brilliant. I'm surprised the B.O. wasn't better than it was, because imo It's a much better movie than IM3. Hopefully the great word of mouth this film is getting will assure that it has long legs. I'd certainly see it for a third time.

MOS's OW B.O. I think depends on how good WB's advertising push is in the last few weeks leading up to the release, and if we keep getting compelling new imagery with each subsequent spot. If the film is great and it resonates with audiences outside of the North American market, then 1 billion should be doable. If however, WB's hasn't got the message out to enough of the GA that this movie has zero to do with SR, then it might not do as good as we all hope.

I think one of their strongest weapons is actually Henry. They need a couple of more spots, like the Lois interrogation scene where he and Amy are flirting and making goo goo eyes at each other. In that scene, they are so playful, and Henry simply oozes charm and charisma. Amy isn't too shabby to look at either!

seriously thats one of the best scenes I've seen so far from this movie and it kind of bugs me that before it was released people were talking about that exact scene and saying stuff like "it was weak, the lowest part of the trailer etc"....WHAT?? lol

 

[Bruce Malone]

If anything people should see how with SITD over-expectations in Box office are very possible.

That's a lesson for MOS, i wonder if WB is going to temper their OW predictions for MOS? Paramout was originally predicting over a $100m weekend than dropped it down quickly to the mid-80's when the friday results came in.

I'd say STID actually had the advantage over MOS in that it was coming off a sucessful well received predecessor.

 

[Anita18]

i am not surprised star trek into darkness didn't do that well people forget star trek didn't actually do that well

snow white and the huntsman made more than star trek(09)

Internationally, yes, but domestically it was no contest. And the hubbub now is over the domestic US opening weekend.

BB made less than Star Trek 09, even adjusted. Didn't doom TDK.

If anything people should see how with SITD over-expectations in Box office are very possible.

That's a lesson for MOS, i wonder if WB is going to temper their OW predictions for MOS? Paramout was originally predicting over a $100m weekend than dropped it down quickly to the mid-80's when the friday results came in.

I'd say STID actually had the advantage over MOS in that it was coming off a sucessful well received predecessor.

But they arguably waited too long to do a sequel, and the momentum died. Plus the marketing didn't differentiate it from the slew of other action-adventure movies.

MOS will be interesting. It's marketed very differently from STID and IM3, and even Skyfall and TDKR and the like. It's a lot more hopeful and optimistic despite Zod's shenanigans, which makes it stand out amongst the various "terrorist" and "revenge" related marketing approaches as of late. We'll see if that pays off....

 

[Marvin]

That's a lesson for MOS, i wonder if WB is going to temper their OW predictions for MOS? Paramout was originally predicting over a $100m weekend than dropped it down quickly to the mid-80's when the friday results came in.

I'd say STID actually had the advantage over MOS in that it was coming off a sucessful well received predecessor.

If WB wanted a high opening weekend they would have flooded the air ways with this jaw dropping action footage we've been hearing so much about. I have a feeling they want an inception like slow burn by way of Nolan associated "you gotta see this" word of mouth.

 

[DKDetective]

But they arguably waited too long to do a sequel, and the momentum died. Plus the marketing didn't differentiate it from the slew of other action-adventure movies.

MOS will be interesting. It's marketed very differently from STID and IM3, and even Skyfall and TDKR and the like. It's a lot more hopeful and optimistic despite Zod's shenanigans, which makes it stand out amongst the various "terrorist" and "revenge" related marketing approaches as of late. We'll see if that pays off....

The dark and serious middle chapter/terrorist villain angle played up in STID's marketing was why my non-fan girlfriend didn't come see the movie with me despite really enjoying Star Trek 09. She thought STID looked like a generic ripoff of every other big action film of the last few years. I'm starting to think that marketing approach was a big factor in STID's under-performance.

In contrast, she is really intrigued by Man of Steel as it looks very unique and that is in spite of me talking about it all the time. I remember when I showed her trailer 2, she kept saying at the end: "I really can't believe how good this looks." I really think people are ready for Superman again given the current state of the world. Superman: The Movie also came during a dark and cynical time - the mid-late 70s was the era of stagflation, Nixon's resignation, American withdrawal from Vietnam , etc.

 

[rks943]

Is anyone else buying tickets for the midnight showing that has already purchased their 7pm June 13th advanced tickets?

Or am I the only one?

Me too. Watching in 2D at 7pm then in IMAX 3D at midnight

 

[Project862006]

Internationally, yes, but domestically it was no contest. And the hubbub now is over the domestic US opening weekend.

BB made less than Star Trek 09, even adjusted. Didn't doom TDK.


But they arguably waited too long to do a sequel, and the momentum died. Plus the marketing didn't differentiate it from the slew of other action-adventure movies.

MOS will be interesting. It's marketed very differently from STID and IM3, and even Skyfall and TDKR and the like. It's a lot more hopeful and optimistic despite Zod's shenanigans, which makes it stand out amongst the various "terrorist" and "revenge" related marketing approaches as of late. We'll see if that pays off....

i agree look at the films this year like after earth,oblivion STID,pacific rim,etc. all have this destruction ridden worlds and doom and gloom thing going on

mos stands out for it's optimism and hopeful themes

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

I really think people are ready for Superman again given the current state of the world. Superman: The Movie also came during a dark and cynical time - the mid-late 70s was the era of stagflation, Nixon's resignation, American withdrawal from Vietnam , etc.

Thanks for providing some historical context for the success of STM. I definitely hope the same pattern holds for MOS!

 

[sf2]

well, we will see in less than a month.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If WB wanted a high opening weekend they would have flooded the air ways with this jaw dropping action footage we've been hearing so much about. I have a feeling they want an inception like slow burn by way of Nolan associated "you gotta see this" word of mouth.

I don't know about that? Inception was slow burning by default in that it was arguably a difficult movie to market. How many non-hardcore nolan fans even really knew what the plot was about before seeing it?

What it had was Chris Nolan coming off TDK, also it arguably played older than your traditional comic book film. Older skewing films have better legs. It wouldn't make sense to replicate that tactic with MOS, a very different film.

I wouldn't be surprised if SITD has some studios shook about their up-coming releases as it arguably looked like a sure thing right up til its release.

 

[Anita18]

I don't know about that? Inception was slow burning by default in that it was arguably a difficult movie to market. How many non-hardcore nolan fans even really knew what the plot was about before seeing it?

What it had was Chris Nolan coming off TDK, also it arguably played older than your traditional comic book film. Older skewing films have better legs. It wouldn't make sense to replicate that tactic with MOS, a very different film.

I wouldn't be surprised if SITD has some studios shook about their up-coming releases as it arguably looked like a sure thing right up til its release.

Well, nobody saw the dead wife, dreams-as-therapy angle either, and it was the driving motivation of the plot! They simply didn't mention it. They marketed it with the spectacle, which was definitely the right thing to do with that film, and even then the WOM "must watch" factor was the argument over the last shot of the movie. Everyone had to see it in its entirety before having an opinion on it, and it was quite the water cooler topic.

We're all probably hoping that MOS will become a water cooler topic for different reasons. But delivering a movie that is more than even its awesome trailers promise is definitely what they're aiming to do.

The trailers for TDK didn't divulge almost anything from the third act. I think they do want to keep some things under wraps, so that audiences will be pleasantly surprised going in, and tell their friends about this awesome scene that wasn't in the trailers, so they'll have to see it. Not quite the same as slow Inception burn, but kind of a same idea....

 

[sf2]

Definitely. If MOS has a lukewarm opening weekend. The news about the lukewarm opening weekend will kill its box office, no matter how good the WOM is.

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

Is anyone else buying tickets for the midnight showing that has already purchased their 7pm June 13th advanced tickets?

Or am I the only one?

You are definitely NOT alone. The theater that I'm seeing the 7 PM showing has an IMAX. So most likely before I go into the 7 PM screening, I will go ahead and purchase a midnight ticket. That way I can skip that huge line and get the seat that I want and enjoy it to the max! Now if they happen to have another showing after the midnight one, then I'm actually considering seeing that one too. I've been saving money to pay for my tickets for a while now. I plan on using every bit that I have saved. Man, I can't wait!

 

[bgshw44]

tix go on sale at 9am tomorrow correct? i have my advance tix in 2d, took friday off and will be seeing it in imax 3d.

 

[bgshw44]

Definitely. If MOS has a lukewarm opening weekend. The news about the lukewarm opening weekend will kill its box office, no matter how good the WOM is.

agreed

 

[Marvin]

Definitely. If MOS has a lukewarm opening weekend. The news about the lukewarm opening weekend will kill its box office, no matter how good the WOM is.

Marvel has been playing that opposite game recently, they want to be out early, their marketing tosses everything at the wall, they open up in a record amount of markets early and then they spread word to the GA about their big numbers to the point where it just snow balls into a blitz of success. Often followed by a May of under performing films.

An opening less than 80 for MoS will really hurt it's chances given what's opening the following weekend not to mention it's only the middle of the big release season. Opting for a June release(like last time) means a modest opening number is going to trigger some negative june journalism.

Looking at the type of marketing I've seen(not much past the first TVspot), I'm thinking WB is really pushing for that WoM success. At this point I don't see how this films word of much can be anything but strong, especially given the last film.

 

[The Shield]

Me too. Watching in 2D at 7pm then in IMAX 3D at midnight

You are definitely NOT alone. The theater that I'm seeing the 7 PM showing has an IMAX. So most likely before I go into the 7 PM screening, I will go ahead and purchase a midnight ticket. That way I can skip that huge line and get the seat that I want and enjoy it to the max! Now if they happen to have another showing after the midnight one, then I'm actually considering seeing that one too. I've been saving money to pay for my tickets for a while now. I plan on using every bit that I have saved. Man, I can't wait!

My theater too! I actually bought 3D tickets for the 7pm and am going to buy whatever type of screening the midnight showing is on the IMAX. I would prefer it be in 2D. But if it be 3D too then so be it. t: