Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]450055[/split]

 

[Mr. Dent]

After the new trailer how much do you think this will make? Before I didn't see it making more than $600m but after seeing the trailer and how much hype and discussion it has generated in combination with it being 3D I can see it really surprising us and breaking $800-900m.

 

[cwere]

Made By JosephCAW

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think i'm seeing a plateau of about $700m which would be really good if it can get there.

 

[psylockolussus]

$400million to $500million.

I'm just not confident with Zack Snyder and I see this movie performing like Batman Begins.

 

[ЯɘvlveR]

prior to the third trailer i thought it had a good chance to do close to 700 million. i think it surpasses that and comes close to a billion. i expect supermania this summer.

 

[Micromind]

$400million to $500million.

I'm just not confident with Zack Snyder and I see this movie performing like Batman Begins.

Really ?

Superman Returns made almost 400 mil in 2006, Thor made about 450 mil worldwide in 2011.

This movie already has more action than SR had, and the fact that SR was not converted into 3D for regular theaters. Also, SR faced stiff competition from POTC 2 franchise.

If this movie manages to draw-in same number of people to watch the movie as SR did, then -

Accounting for inflation since 2006, and added 3D boost of 15 % to regular ticket prices, it should easily make upto 500 mil.

Now, take into account the fact that overseas market has expanded since 2006, the popularity of Nolan brand, better action scenes, MOS can make more then 500 mil worldwide.

If Thor can make 450 mil, then MOS surly can make at least 500 mil.

 

[Marvin]

Having seen the trailer(still not sure WB put their strongest foot forward yet)I'm confident in this films success.

$330 Domestic - $570 Foreign
$900 - WW

 

[G.Godfrey]

(still not sure WB put their strongest foot forward yet)

I don't think they did. I wonder if they will. I suspect another trailer in a month (Ala TDKR's Nokia trailer which really became trailer #4 and was attached to TASM just 3 weeks before TDKR opened) and I think they may be saving some of the really big stuff, ala more Zod scenes (EVERYONE seems to love the little we got from Shannon, that guy is truly something else!) , heat vision/train slinging battles for the later TV spots, maybe even for the NBA conference finals.

As of now, after the last trailer and the buzz for it and with the anticipation of even more to come from the marketing, this is my (mostly final) prediction:

$350 domestic (95 OW)
$450 foregin
$800 WW

 

[Sharkboy]

I'm really sticking towards 800m WW, I think in terms of "first movie" in a cbm, it's easily the most buzzed about one since Batman Begins, I can't recall Thor, Captain America or even Iron Man having this much positivity or excitement surrounding it, and this was BEFORE the trailer which got everyone excited.

Heck it could even surprise us and go over 800mil WW if the marketing materials are all up to the level that the third trailer was.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

130 opening
400 Doms
900 ww

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I believe boxoffice.com will put their predictions for MOS this weekend. It will be interesting.

 

[Mad Love]

Sony has pushed up the release of the Will & Jaden Smith-starring, M. Night Shyamalan-directed, sci-fi release After Earth, from to June 7 to May 31, presumably to give it two weeks at the box office before Man of Steel sucks up all the multiplex oxygen on June 14.

Given North America exhibitors just spent a week at the Las Vegas CinemaCon convention having all the major studios compete for their attention, the optimist might interpret the move as an indication positive buzz is building towards Warner Bros.' Superman reboot.

http://www.newsarama.com/film/man-of-steel-move-kick-ass-2-clip.html

 

[Tacit Ronin]

it's easily the most buzzed about one since Batman Begins

I thought iron Man had more buzz. Which reflected in its box office, making nearly 100 million opening weekend.

 

[Excel]

Speaks VOLUMES about the films deafening buzz when the studio would rather have AFTER EARTH - a big budget action epic starring megastar Will Smith - have it's opening weekend face the combined 2nd weekends of FAST AND FURIOUS, THE HANGOVER 3, and EPIC than have AFTER EARTHS 2nd weekend face MAN OF STEEL's opening weekend.

The consensus around hollywood is GET OUT OF ITS WAY. As soon as MAN OF STEEL opens, it is going to hog almost all the attention from filmgoers. Look for 'This Is The End' to move at some point as well. Paramount has to be considering moving World War Z - a tough sell as is - as well. WWZ may be the most bomb of the summer in it's current spot.

Barring a massive marketing flop over the coming weeks, I see zero scenarios where MAN OF STEEL opens under $100 million, and I am beginning to suspect the $115-120 mark may be it's opening weekend floor. Which is a lot, but not THAT much.

Consider that with 3D ticket prices included, TDKR opens over 200 million. With 3d tickets and no shooting...TDKR does, like, 220 million+. $120 million is a lot, but in terms of ticket volume, it isn't really all time high.

Anything under $80 million would be extremely low.

 

[DarthAlani]

I agree Excel. Films moving out of its way is a great sign for MOS box office.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

yeah, I'm starting to think this movie will have a big opening weekend.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

Man of Steel

PROS:
- The film's early social network tracking has been very encouraging.
- Fan buzz has been incredibly high thanks in large part to Christopher Nolan's producing credit.
- Reboots have proven successful over the last few years, from Batman Begins to Casino Royale, Star Trek, and The Amazing Spider-Man.
- 2006's Superman Returns pulled over $200 million domestically. It's not hard to imagine a significant jump from that here with the increased buzz around Man of Steel, plus inflation and 3D+IMAX premium prices.
- The new trailer received a strong reaction at CinemaCon.

CONS:
- The Superman brand hasn't been strong for among general audiences for several decades. Residual elements of over-saturation could still be a factor.
- Director Zack Snyder has had a rougher box office showing lately with films like Sucker Punch and The Legend of the Guardians.
- While The Amazing Spider-Man was successful, it still dropped off significantly from its predecessor--although its predecessor was in a different situation than Superman Returns. Either way, it may take one well-received film before general audiences embrace a new Superman franchise enough to send it to big blockbuster levels.
- The competition in June is fairly stiff with titles like World War Z and Monsters University opening in Man of Steel's second weekend.

Opening weekend: $108,000,000
Cumulative: $325,000,000

 

[ElDuderino]

Seems right but a bit on the conservative side.

 

[Mysteryman]

Still, I think it would top the first Iron Man in OW numbers if it made that much.

 

[hopefuldreamer]

I would hope it will at least do better than TASM. So around 800k.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

Wow a domestic total of 325 ? I am all here for that

 

[Mr. Dent]

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

This makes me like my prediction even more.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25583995&postcount=937

OW: $105m
DOM: $310m
INT: $420m
WW: $730m

Seems right but a bit on the conservative side.

I don't think that is on the conservative side at all...they're predicting a total haul of $325m and over a $100m OW...that's about a optimistic as you can get for this film.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

This makes me like my prediction even more.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=25583995&postcount=937




I don't think that is on the conservative side at all...they're predicting a total haul of $325m and over a $100m OW...that's about a optimistic as you can get for this film.

Indeed. I would very much be pleased with that.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

On the power of that last trailer, that sounds about right overall. Not sure about the opening. Still going conservative there.

Those This is the End projections are nuts.