Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[redp]

New full-trailer for Man of Steel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlOF03DUoWc

If one looks at the progression of the trailers, there is a clear rise in stakes and tension. This one really reaches the climax.(Smart promotion) Can't wait for June 14.

 

[Marvin]

One good thing I will say about this marketing strategy is that each trailer comes with a huge progression of visuals and momentum. The likes of Ironman could only really top themselves with big clear spoilers at the end of each trailer.

I'm glad the marketing reached this point of "action" however I do think if they had reached it before, especially when the world was rabid for a first impression, things may have gone into melt down. Even now I look at the traffic in the MoS section on these boards and it's a fraction of what it was during THAT time. I hope this footage/trailer makes it into theaters though.

Marvel must feel relieved that they have done their damage early and don't have to go head to head with what looks to be a superior product(imo). The only tragedy here is that MoS doesn't get two weeks to itself.

I know WB will want a big post credit scene(it's a great maketing move), I know Nolan isn't really the type of producer that seems down. I'll be damned if I leave before the final credit rolls though. Here's hoping the post credit scene is more about the dcu than it is about Lex or Brainiac.

 

[sf2]

New full-trailer for Man of Steel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlOF03DUoWc

If one looks at the progression of the trailers, there is a clear rise in stakes and tension. This one really reaches the climax.(Smart promotion) Can't wait for June 14.

if only the general audience / movie goers have followed and watched the trailers.

 

[Micromind]

Not may people check out latest trailers on Internet, most of US movie goers have seen MOS trailer #2 and that trailer has created a certain impression of the movie, whether that will be able to pull in general audiences remains to be seen.

For Overseas viewers, they are not promoting MOS as much, no TV spots have been released in Asian market as yet, infact I am sure many people who go out to see Marvel comic book movies like Iron Man 3 have any idea that movie like MOS even exists (here in Asia.)

I cannot see this movie making as much as The Amazing Spider-Man, no matter how good the movie is.

 

[DKDetective]

As much as I enjoyed trailer 2, I really don't feel like it is nearly as likely to draw in general audience members as trailer 3, which is extremely frustrating because while trailer 2 got pretty consistent play in theatres for about 4 months, trailer 3 really seems to have gotten the short end of the stick. Movies to which it should have been attached (Iron Man 3, Star Trek Int Darkness), either had no trailer or played trailer 2 instead during my showings. While I know it is really the TV spots that determine whether the general public will flock to theatres to see Man of Steel, I have to admit it is bothering me how little play trailer is seeming to get when it is the best hope to win people over. Trailer 4 is action packed and show lots of great action, but I have to agree with Jamie that it is not as perfectly constructed as trailer 3.

 

[Marvin]

The real secret to trailer 3 outside of it's 3 emotional beats in the first part and in spite of it's sheer reuse factor is the Music. It's got a perfect sample from the films score which on it's own is a hit.

Everyone knows those first cues playing over that silent spectacle are gold. I haven't seen the newest trailer but I doubt it hits that same cord as hard. If only they could have integrated these last two trailers more.

The sad part for WB is that they are probably not going to even attempt to open as wide as fast as IM3, their asian release will no doubt be some where down the road. And because of said fact, they won't have the benefit of selling their product at home as a big fat success before the fact and ride that wave.

 

[Tobias]

Not may people check out latest trailers on Internet, most of US movie goers have seen MOS trailer #2 and that trailer has created a certain impression of the movie, whether that will be able to pull in general audiences remains to be seen.

For Overseas viewers, they are not promoting MOS as much, no TV spots have been released in Asian market as yet, infact I am sure many people who go out to see Marvel comic book movies like Iron Man 3 have any idea that movie like MOS even exists (here in Asia.)

I cannot see this movie making as much as The Amazing Spider-Man, no matter how good the movie is.

Don't think anyone ever expected it to make TASM numbers OS. Spidey is huge OS and Superman is not.

I can see maybe 300 million OS. That's my prediction.

 

[Tobias]

As much as I enjoyed trailer 2, I really don't feel like it is nearly as likely to draw in general audience members as trailer 3, which is extremely frustrating because while trailer 2 got pretty consistent play in theatres for about 4 months, trailer 3 really seems to have gotten the short end of the stick. Movies to which it should have been attached (Iron Man 3, Star Trek Int Darkness), either had no trailer or played trailer 2 instead during my showings. While I know it is really the TV spots that determine whether the general public will flock to theatres to see Man of Steel, I have to admit it is bothering me how little play trailer is seeming to get when it is the best hope to win people over. Trailer 4 is action packed and show lots of great action, but I have to agree with Jamie that it is not as perfectly constructed as trailer 3.

WB has blown the marketing on MOS. It will come back to bite them. It's like they are making the same kind of mistakes they did with SR.

 

[hopefuldreamer]

Don't think anyone ever expected it to make TASM numbers OS. Spidey is huge OS and Superman is not.

I can see maybe 300 million OS. That's my prediction.

Really?

 

[DKDetective]

Really?

While I disagree with Tobias on most things, he is factually accurate on that point. Spider-man has long been established as having a greater draw in overseas markets than either Batman or Superman. The Raimi trilogy made major money overseas before the recent overseas market explosion.

 

[Tobias]

While I disagree with Tobias on most things, he is factually accurate on that point. Spider-man has long been established as having a greater draw in overseas markets than either Batman or Superman. The Raimi trilogy made major money overseas before the recent overseas market explosion.

Yes this is a given. Which makes WB's minimal promotion of MOS OS odd. Unless they figure he is not popular there and won't do too well anyway so why spend money on marketing that will not make much of a difference.

This is why I'm holding my OS number to 300 million - and being maybe a bit too optimistic in that prediction.

 

[db85usa]

I will make a bet with anyone who thinks MoS will pull in only $300 Million overseas. You guys do realize the movie is currently tracking at $120-$130 Million for its domestic OW right? This isn't SR. A lot of people that saw TDKR, Inception, 300, Watchmen, etc will see this movie. Inception, might I add was a big hit overseas and MoS has the man as a producer.

WB's marketing strategy was to fly low under the radar and release a blitz. I think that's smart because now MoS is trending worldwide it's the most talked about upcoming movie in the world right now. A lot of you guys have SR in the back of your minds.

 

[Marvin]

While I disagree with Tobias on most things, he is factually accurate on that point. Spider-man has long been established as having a greater draw in overseas markets than either Batman or Superman. The Raimi trilogy made major money overseas before the recent overseas market explosion.

I don't agree with this.
The first Spiderman did gang busters(for the time and this time too) overseas and that was before "the raimi trilogy" established the brand world wide as it has today.

It was a hit overseas for two reasons. Spiderman's brand has always been world wide(kids in japan have spidey pj's and video games). And the films were big new shinny well done hits.

Superman was and is in the same position(Superman isn't Luke Cage). It's just a matter of Superman Returns absolutely sucking. Given a good film, I'm sure the truth will come fourth.

Batman however isn't as world wide friendly as Spidey/Superman/Transformers. Something about him.

 

[Tobias]

I will make a bet with anyone who thinks MoS will pull in only $300 Million overseas. You guys do realize the movie is currently tracking at $120-$130 Million for its domestic OW right? This isn't SR. A lot of people that saw TDKR, Inception, 300, Watchmen, etc will see this movie. Inception, might I add was a big hit overseas and MoS has the man as a producer.

WB's marketing strategy was to fly low under the radar and release a blitz. I think that's smart because now MoS is trending worldwide it's the most talked about upcoming movie in the world right now. A lot of you guys have SR in the back of your minds.

Tracking is 108 - 130. Supposedly there are 95 million tracking numbers too. The OS marketing is poor - if no one knows about the film how do you expect them to turn out.

 

[db85usa]

Tracking is 108 - 130. Supposedly there are 95 million tracking numbers too. The OS marketing is poor - if no one knows about the film how do you expect them to turn out.

I spoke directly to insider tracking and what I'm told is low $110 to high $130. Realistically and personally, I think MoS pulls $125-$140 Million. I am a box office analyst and have been since 2002. Sadly, I cannot say with whom for business reasons but it is with a reputable company. Overseas the film is well known to be released this summer. The marketing isn't on high gear yet that is very true. WB is sort of following the same route TDKR went -- under the radar until the last minute. Why though? Because it's the one movie that stands out from May until June 14th. It sorts of a "it worked before, it will work again" approach. Which is the safe way to do things.

Movie companies try to be very careful in over marketing their product. Unless if it's a huge franchise (Batman, Marvel superheroes, Transformers, etc) it comes off as desperate and backfires relatively easy as opposed to holding back as much as possible and then letting it all out. The best way to explain it is like Texas Hold'Em. You don't want to show your hand until you've got everyone suckered into a large pot.

People have known since last year when Man of Steel would hit theaters. Soon enough TV spots and commercial tie-ins will be flooding TV networks around the world reminding everyone of MoS.

 

[mace1]

While I disagree with Tobias on most things, he is factually accurate on that point. Spider-man has long been established as having a greater draw in overseas markets than either Batman or Superman. The Raimi trilogy made major money overseas before the recent overseas market explosion.

+ Foreign:
Spider-Man
$490,185,894


Spider-Man 2
$410,180,516


Spider-Man 3
$554,341,323

The Amazing Spider-Man
$490,185,894

______________________
+ Foreign:

The Dark Knight
$469,700,000



The Dark Knight Rises
$636,300,000

 

[Tobias]

I spoke directly to insider tracking and what I'm told is low $110 to high $130. Realistically and personally, I think MoS pulls $125-$140 Million. I am a box office analyst and have been since 2002. Sadly, I cannot say with whom for business reasons but it is with a reputable company. Overseas the film is well known to be released this summer. The marketing isn't on high gear yet that is very true. WB is sort of following the same route TDKR went -- under the radar until the last minute. Why though? Because it's the one movie that stands out from May until June 14th. It sorts of a "it worked before, it will work again" approach. Which is the safe way to do things.

Movie companies try to be very careful in over marketing their product. Unless if it's a huge franchise (Batman, Marvel superheroes, Transformers, etc) it comes off as desperate and backfires relatively easy as opposed to holding back as much as possible and then letting it all out. The best way to explain it is like Texas Hold'Em. You don't want to show your hand until you've got everyone suckered into a large pot.

People have known since last year when Man of Steel would hit theaters. Soon enough TV spots and commercial tie-ins will be flooding TV networks around the world reminding everyone of MoS.

How many tracking companies are there? It looks like 4 from what I read here. Of course they were off a lot with STID and Gasby, Except for BTC it seems, But the movie sites seemed to discount BTC and go with the numbers of the other 3 or however many others there are. I'd think the best approach would be to average the numbers of all the companies.

I guess the key numbers are those released the week before. IM3 had great numbers in all 4 quadrants which guaranteed it's huge success. I assume the 4 quadrants are guys above a certain age, guys below that age and similar for women.

Given the recent misses everyone will be watching F&F and Hangover to see if the tracking companies can get it right this time.

I find it interesting that most posters here are discounting these high projections and settling in at around 100 million OW.

Do you get word on what WB is thinking about the numbers?

 

[Vagosnati]

I have the feeling it will be the most seen superhero movie ever.And one of the most earned ever.

 

[Gee]

+ Foreign:
Spider-Man
$490,185,894

The Amazing Spider-Man
$490,185,894

Both movies made the same amount?

 

[DKDetective]

Mace1, how about you actually do some analysis of those numbers rather post them obnoxiously largely. If you actually compared those films' domestic and international numbers, you'd realize that prior to TDKR, Batman films underperformed in international markets in comparison to their domestic numbers. Even TDK's $470 million overseas is relatively low for a $534 domestic haul. Also, nice attempt hiding the box office split for Batman Begins to try and prove your point.

 

[redp]

I spoke directly to insider tracking and what I'm told is low $110 to high $130. Realistically and personally, I think MoS pulls $125-$140 Million. I am a box office analyst and have been since 2002. Sadly, I cannot say with whom for business reasons but it is with a reputable company. Overseas the film is well known to be released this summer. The marketing isn't on high gear yet that is very true. WB is sort of following the same route TDKR went -- under the radar until the last minute. Why though? Because it's the one movie that stands out from May until June 14th. It sorts of a "it worked before, it will work again" approach. Which is the safe way to do things.

Movie companies try to be very careful in over marketing their product. Unless if it's a huge franchise (Batman, Marvel superheroes, Transformers, etc) it comes off as desperate and backfires relatively easy as opposed to holding back as much as possible and then letting it all out. The best way to explain it is like Texas Hold'Em. You don't want to show your hand until you've got everyone suckered into a large pot.

People have known since last year when Man of Steel would hit theaters. Soon enough TV spots and commercial tie-ins will be flooding TV networks around the world reminding everyone of MoS.

Question of interest: Does your tracking company track international revenues.(I would say no)? Anyhow, in response to the lack of marketing internationally: overseas things are quite different than in North America. Some countries have distributors that coordinate with Warner Bros, but ultimately make their own decisions on marketing. So, its not always WB's hand in everything. There are many things to consider, most notably though is the marketing technique that differs from each country. In individual territories, the marketing department may conclude that an immediate marketing spanning a week and a half is best. For others it may be a gradual one. Another thing to note is that WB is also releasing Hangover Part III. So, marketing(in forms of posters and TV spots...) can't happen at the same time, mainly for cost reasons.

Superman is POPULAR.(Is it more popular than Spider-Man? At this point in time no. But, then again Spider-man was not far away from Superman's popularity a few years back) Word-of-Mouth is absolutely crucial especially when the target audience age range is between 12~22.

 

[Marvin]

gotta admit I thought the latter bat films had lower intl numbers.

I mean one look at the domestic hauls of the last to bat films, one has to ask themselves why on earth IM3 is so gracefully passing them on the world wide total front.

However Begins vs the first spiderman speaks to the idea that at a certain point, the bat films just became big hits inspite of intl appeal whereas Spidey started off that way.

 

[db85usa]

How many tracking companies are there? It looks like 4 from what I read here. Of course they were off a lot with STID and Gasby, Except for BTC it seems, But the movie sites seemed to discount BTC and go with the numbers of the other 3 or however many others there are. I'd think the best approach would be to average the numbers of all the companies.

I guess the key numbers are those released the week before. IM3 had great numbers in all 4 quadrants which guaranteed it's huge success. I assume the 4 quadrants are guys above a certain age, guys below that age and similar for women.

Given the recent misses everyone will be watching F&F and Hangover to see if the tracking companies can get it right this second time.

I find it interesting that most posters here are discounting these high projections and settling in at around 100 million OW.

Do you get word on what WB is thinking about the numbers?

I had STID at $80 Million. I was very surprised that it underperformed because the marketing was actually solid but for whatever reason, the GA didn't bite hard. As for F&F it's possible it could underperform as well. Hangover III will make a lot of money due to its predecessors and it's a successful comedy franchise.

The reason $100 Million seems to be the hot spot for MoS is because of several reasons. One is Christopher Nolan practically godfathered the project until Zack Snyder ran with it. It's got a star power cast and now lately people are realizing this story, this is a Superman we've never seen before. Every shot, every piece of dialogue, action scene, flying sequence, musical track. It's all new.

There are no superhero/action blockbuster movies standing in the way of MoS or any that are an immediate threat. Although Monsters U will take a chunk out of Superman's second weekend and could take the top spot. This all really depends on WOM and what early reviews say. The good news is Superman doesn't have to go up against a POTC sequel during its OW!

 

[redp]

I had STID at $80 Million. I was very surprised that it underperformed because the marketing was actually solid but for whatever reason, the GA didn't bite hard. As for F&F it's possible it could underperform as well. Hangover III will make a lot of money due to its predecessors and it's a successful comedy franchise.

The reason $100 Million seems to be the hot spot for MoS is because of several reasons. One is Christopher Nolan practically godfathered the project until Zack Snyder ran with it. It's got a star power cast and now lately people are realizing this story, this is a Superman we've never seen before. Every shot, every piece of dialogue, action scene, flying sequence, musical track. It's all new.

There are no superhero/action blockbuster movies standing in the way of MoS or any that are an immediate threat. Although Monsters U will take a chunk out of Superman's second weekend and could take the top spot. This all really depends on WOM and what early reviews say. The good news is Superman doesn't have to go up against a POTC sequel during its OW!

I totally disagree with that. F&F6 will be the winner. Hangover Part III will gross unequivocally less than the original. It isn't going to be a star and it sure won't beat F&F6. Internationally, HO3 will do well though.

 

[Tobias]

I had STID at $80 Million. I was very surprised that it underperformed because the marketing was actually solid but for whatever reason, the GA didn't bite hard. As for F&F it's possible it could underperform as well. Hangover III will make a lot of money due to its predecessors and it's a successful comedy franchise.

The reason $100 Million seems to be the hot spot for MoS is because of several reasons. One is Christopher Nolan practically godfathered the project until Zack Snyder ran with it. It's got a star power cast and now lately people are realizing this story, this is a Superman we've never seen before. Every shot, every piece of dialogue, action scene, flying sequence, musical track. It's all new.

There are no superhero/action blockbuster movies standing in the way of MoS or any that are an immediate threat. Although Monsters U will take a chunk out of Superman's second weekend and could take the top spot. This all really depends on WOM and what early reviews say. The good news is Superman doesn't have to go up against a POTC sequel during its OW!

So Nolan and the stars sort of guarantee 100 million. And the film which looks great. Yet the tracking is higher but folks aren't buying it. Memories of being burned with SR I think.

The key figures will be the numbers the week before - coupled with the reviews.

MU is expected to easily take the number 1 spot that weekend. IM3 had a 58% drop so MOS is likely to have a similar drop.

Have you heard anything about what WB is really expecting?

Your STID number was a lot more accurate than that of most of the companies.

As to OS posters are saying they aren't seeing much if anything so how can OS areas have MOS trending well? Guess you don't do OS projections as there are really many mini-markets. All different.

UK will be interesting. Can Henry give it a boost there?

July 4th should be interesting. Can MOS keep it's drop small? Lone Ranger may not be huge - JMO. If so that could allow other films to fall not as much as they might have had it been POTC.