Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still think fanboys depend too much on the online stuff. We've had plenty of films that were popular online and that didn't translate into ticket sales.

 

[Marvin]

its a bad drug. in 2009 and 2010 i was the biggest native 3D fan you could find. in 2013 i think all 3D movies were post converted.

IM3 3D was disgusting. it was so bad that someone had to be drunk while rotoscoping.

well, you really seem to be campaigning against IM3 lately. It can't be that bad, unless the reviews and critic spots are all early release propaganda.

Anyways, I didn't really care much for 3D till a few of those TF3 set pieces. Glad bay is going native(and Imax) for the next one.

Sucks that Abrams/Del Torro and Snyder haven't been sold on the native process yet. It's the visualists use of native cameras that really sell/push things.

Abrams has gotta know that they're going to push for a 3D star wars(I believe Lucas still has some shares and that dude loves digital stuff). I would hope he shoots that stuff native and doesn't just convert. Though, if there is going to be alot of sandy locations in the script I can see him wanting the film look(and not wanting to mess with native cameras for that stuff).

Del Toro is def all about his textures and aesthetic, I don't see him shooting with a digital camera any time soon.

Snyder...he comes from bay's school(literally) so he loves his film grain but his films(excluding MoS) are so processed that I don't see the jump to digital being all that much.

according to some of these guys, converting looks better anyways. Right. James Cameron is due out in a few years, I'm sure he will do that thing he does...

 

[Mr.M]

I think it opens with 90-100 million... tops at around 350ish, 700-800ish WW. I'll go 750ish. Iron Man I'll go 420/1.2 WW.

 

[Rhonimus]

I see a rather silly belief trend around these parts that nothing means anything. Polls, twitter trending, youtube views, nothing seems to means anything.

Newsflash: It does.

Now I'm not saying that it means a whole lot but there is a reason why studios spend money on gauging online reactions and receptions and in some cases even hire people to stir the hype.

When you have a poll on a big site and over 150.000 (mostly non fanboys) people vote, that means that for those 40.000 some people who voted for it, Man of Steel is the most anticipated movie of the summer. Does that mean it will outgross IM3 or even STID (it might do that in case of the latter ) ? No. But it does mean that there is a high interested and awareness among the movie going crowd who also happens to regularly surf the net. MOS is winning most polls these days btw

And yes, I would be saying this even if MOS was the last in the poll. This isn't 2003 anymore or even 2006. Internet and social media sites have become an important factor in spreading WOM, hype, gauging interest etc.

There are exceptions of course (as with anything in life) , but for the most part big flops of the past years (Green Lantern, John Carter, Dredd etc..) didn't have 30+ million trailer views on YT, didn't lead any online polls where tens of thousands voted and didn't trend on twitter with over 50.000 tweets in a day. And likewise the biggest movies didn't just go under the radar with nobody taking note. I could post statistics for the biggest success and the biggest flops of the past 3 years to prove this point but frankly, it's a waste of time. I believe Man of Steel's success (which is also reliant on how WB handles the final marketing push - TV spots need to bring it) will speak for itself.

So yes, it means something and no matter how little it may be, it is not to be underestimated.

And After Earth will flop, hard.

^^^^ .. This

exceptions there are of course .. but for the most part i figure there's fire where you see smoke ..

 

[Mysteryman]

The poll means nothing unless it translates into box office numbers .
Since it is an ongoing poll,
There is no way to differentiate between the GA and Fanboys who just want to cast a vote for their favorite trailer of the moment .

 

[Liam_H]

If one is saying that the poll shows MOS has more interest than we thought or that there is definite interest, what does that even mean. We already know MOS has interest and that it is an anticipated summer blockbuster.

 

[mohoo]

Marketing doesn't necessarily reflect on the box office, a less marketed film could still gross more.

But does that mean marketing means nothing?

 

[Micromind]

Marketing of MOS is still not in full swing, for example the Facebook page of Warner Bros. pictures - India is promoting the WB movies like Hangover 3, 300:Rise Of An Empire, Pacific Rim and The Great Gatsby, not much there for MOS.

For TDKR last year, they were putting out banners, posters that were not even released in US.

Nothing exclusive there other than three trailers for MOS.

https://www.facebook.com/WarnerBrosIndia

 

[G.Godfrey]

Marketing of MOS is still not in full swing, for example the Facebook page of Warner Bros. pictures - India is promoting the WB movies like Hangover 3, 300:Rise Of An Empire, Pacific Rim and The Great Gatsby, not much there for MOS.

For TDKR last year, they were putting out banners, posters that were not even released in US.

Nothing exclusive there other than three trailers for MOS.

https://www.facebook.com/WarnerBrosIndia

I think they'll probably start gearing up for the full swing marketing next week with posters and banners. Last year with TDKR, 3 weeks after the final trailer, from May Monday 21st to Friday 25th, WB released the theatrical poster, 6 character posters and 6 banners. All in the span of 5 days. So hopefully we're just as lucky this time around!

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Marketing of MOS is still not in full swing, for example the Facebook page of Warner Bros. pictures - India is promoting the WB movies like Hangover 3, 300:Rise Of An Empire, Pacific Rim and The Great Gatsby, not much there for MOS.

For TDKR last year, they were putting out banners, posters that were not even released in US.

Nothing exclusive there other than three trailers for MOS.

https://www.facebook.com/WarnerBrosIndia

Beginning of May we should be getting lots of stuff. It would be smart for have the final MOS trailer play in front of Iron Man 3.

 

[fake]

Marketing of MOS is still not in full swing, for example the Facebook page of Warner Bros. pictures - India is promoting the WB movies like Hangover 3, 300:Rise Of An Empire, Pacific Rim and The Great Gatsby, not much there for MOS.

For TDKR last year, they were putting out banners, posters that were not even released in US.

Nothing exclusive there other than three trailers for MOS.

https://www.facebook.com/WarnerBrosIndia

They will probably start soon. "Great Gatsby" will get a major marketing push in India - Amitabh Bachchan who is one of the (if not the) biggest stars in India is acting in his first Hollywood film in what looks like a substantial role (much better than Anil Kapoor's blink and you miss it role in MI4)

Probably they will get to MoS promotion right after that.

I think the best date to look forward to for the promotion to kick into top gear would be May 18th - tickets go on sale at Walmart that day. I am sure that will be accompanied with new posters and stills and so on.

 

[Excel]

Curious, is anyone expecting IronMan 3 to out do TDK or TDKR in opening weekend or total?

Total...no way on Earth. Opening weekend? I think it will top both of them.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm actually more interested to see how much the thor and cap sequel's will make post-avengers?

It may solve the question of whether the avengers franchise really does rely on just iron man?

 

[mace1]

Someways I wish the last superman film was not made. It would have given MOS a greater impact as his returns movie.

You should be happy superman returns did not do has well,because if it did this movie would not have been made.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Man of Steel 2 might be in a position to be a similar grosser to Iron Man 3.

I know The Avengers surprised and beat out TDKR last year, but that was somewhat of an anomaly that may never happen again. It was like a perfect storm which swooped up audiences in the grand scale of the battle and characters coming together.

I know one thing.

If Bale and Cavill meet up in JLA. That film will have the potential to be bigger than Avengers.

The 2 most Iconic heroes of all time meeting on screen for the 1st time ever compared to a bunch of b-list heroes. Bale returning as Batman would have to happen. I cant imagine the hype this film would generate. Would make Avengers teaming up look pale in comparison.

 

[db85usa]

It's really hard to pinpoint how well MoS will do in the box office. I think it will do well. Don't be disappointed if it opens north of $75 Mil but has really good legs and ends up hauling in $275 mil domestic $350 foreign.

FWIW boxoffice.com projects $108 Million OW and $325 Million total domestic but then again this is the same website that predicted The Dark Knight Rises would open with $210+ Million

3D will help MoS ticket sales, and I think people are starting to realize this is an entirely different Superman. I STILL THINK MoS will haul in numbers equivalent to Iron Man 1 and/or 2. So this being a reboot, I'm going to say $110 Million OW, $320 Million domestic, $400 foreign. Those are some realistic doable numbers. Anyone who thinks this will open up to $130+ Million is just crazy! t:

 

[db85usa]

Total...no way on Earth. Opening weekend? I think it will top both of them.

Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

It's really hard to pinpoint how well MoS will do in the box office. I think it will do well. Don't be disappointed if it opens north of $75 Mil but has really good legs and ends up hauling in $275 mil domestic $350 foreign.

FWIW boxoffice.com projects $108 Million OW and $325 Million total domestic but then again this is the same website that predicted The Dark Knight Rises would open with $210+ Million

3D will help MoS ticket sales, and I think people are starting to realize this is an entirely different Superman. I STILL THINK MoS will haul in numbers equivalent to Iron Man 1 and/or 2. So this being a reboot, I'm going to say $110 Million OW, $320 Million domestic, $400 foreign. Those are some realistic doable numbers. Anyone who thinks this will open up to $130+ Million is just crazy! t:

Its going way over 75 opening. Thats just stupid saying it will open that low. 115 at least. I actually think 125 opening and over 340 domestic. I would not be surprised with 400 as the WOM is going to be great.

 

[Liam_H]

FWIW boxoffice.com projects $108 Million OW and $325 Million total domestic but then again this is the same website that predicted The Dark Knight Rises would open with $210+ Million

Are you sure they predicted that high? They are usually pretty reasonable with their projections and that seems about $30 million too high.

Iron Man 3 will not come close to TDK/TDKR OW. It will haul in $135 million.

I get the feeling you're going to be wrong on that account.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

Are you sure they predicted that high? They are usually pretty reasonable with their projections and that seems about $30 million too high.



I get the feeling you're going to be wrong on that account.

Are you nuts? Its opening over 110 at minimum.

 

[Liam_H]

I was referring to the one about TDKR.

 

[Sharkboy]

I'm pretty sure whatever records the Avengers broke will be broken again in the next 2 years. (if not this year) and whatever record that film will break, will be broken again. It's nothing really special since Avatar cleaned up, theres been a film nearly every year that's not only broken a billion but set some kind of record.

 

[Tyrone Parker]

I was referring to the one about TDKR.

NM,,I see you bolded that.

 

[Frontier]

I think we have to keep in mind that whatever predictions where made for TDKR in terms of box office certainly would have been tempered as a result of the Aurora shooting. So it's not really a fair marker, imho, to compare to. Anyone who got a bad prediction on such can easily explain that.

I just hope MoS out-performs Marvel's flicks.

 

[db85usa]

Are you sure they predicted that high? They are usually pretty reasonable with their projections and that seems about $30 million too high.



I get the feeling you're going to be wrong on that account.

I followed and tracked TDKR here is post I made they predicted $198 Mil then about one day before it's release once reviews were coming out they upped their prediction to $210 Million.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=23902775&postcount=254