Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Marvin]

Monsters is going to open over 70mil. The brand and the current marketing pretty much guarantee it.

Unless MoS has a second weekend greater than IM3.........it's not holding that top spot in week two, not with brad pit picking up the scraps of that weekend.

Sorry fella's, WB s kinda screwed the pooch on that particular issue.

 

[kendalag]

Monsters is going to open over 70mil. The brand and the current marketing pretty much guarantee it.

Unless MoS has a second weekend greater than IM3.........it's not holding that top spot in week two, not with brad pit picking up the scraps of that weekend.

Sorry fella's, WB s kinda screwed the pooch on that particular issue.

How did they screw the pooch? If it opens to 100 million, it's still doing 40-50 million weekend 2. Monsters will do 70+ & WWZ will do 30-40, but seriously, next weekend Hangover, Fast 6, Star Trek & Iron Man will all be playing to good #s. Box office if the demand is there can easily handle over 200 million dollars over a weekend (as The Avengers showed by itself)

Yes, they could have put MOS in the summer WB spot instead of Pacific Rim, but who cares ... if that was the case, I'd have to wait an extra month.

Iron Man is only getting 2 weeks at #1 despite opening to 175 million, so who cares. Star Trek will only get 1.

 

[Marvin]

How did they screw the pooch? If it opens to 100 million, it's still doing 40-50 million weekend 2. Monsters will do 70+ & WWZ will do 30-40, but seriously, next weekend Hangover, Fast 6, Star Trek & Iron Man will all be playing to good #s. Box office if the demand is there can easily handle over 200 million dollars over a weekend (as The Avengers showed by itself)

Yes, they could have put MOS in the summer WB spot instead of Pacific Rim, but who cares ... if that was the case, I'd have to wait an extra month.

Iron Man is only getting 2 weeks at #1 despite opening to 175 million, so who cares. Star Trek will only get 1.

Ironman get's two weeks at number one because Star Trek didn't open a week early. Whatever benefits a film(and it's marketing) can wrought from that, it most certainly has.

If Avengers/TDKR/Ironman all open on the same weekend, all these arguments about the box office demand are put to rest. Films strive when they don't face steep summer competition(I'm having a hard time remembering the heavy hitters of monsters inc 2 caliber Avengers faced in it's second or even third week, help me plz).

I never said WB screwed the pooch, I said they screwed the pooch on this particular element. MoS will have one week at number one. For "better" or worse. Period.
If they opened a week earlier, they would have two weeks at number one.
For all it matters.

 

[Tobias]

Ironman get's two weeks at number one because Star Trek didn't open a week early. Whatever benefits a film(and it's marketing) can wrought from that, it most certainly has.

If Avengers/TDKR/Ironman all open on the same weekend, all these arguments about the box office demand are put to rest. Films strive when they don't face steep summer competition(I'm having a hard time remembering the heavy hitters of monsters inc 2 caliber Avengers faced in it's second or even third week, help me plz).

I never said WB screwed the pooch, I said they screwed the pooch on this particular element. MoS will have one week at number one. For "better" or worse. Period.
If they opened a week earlier, they would have two weeks at number one.
For all it matters.

This is true. WB screwed up the scheduling. It's obvious and I don't get it. Have no idea why Pacific Rim got the sweet spot except that WB is looking to turn it into a mega-film franchise. Which is supposedly what they are trying with MOS. Oh well.

Although moving it a week earlier MU might have moved to a week earlier or another big film may have set 6/14 for it's release. It should have been moved to post a July 4th weekend. Or left in the original December 2012 slot.

 

[Marvin]

Although moving it a week earlier MU might have moved to a week earlier or another big film may have set 6/14 for it's release. It should have been moved to post a July 4th weekend. Or left in the original December 2012 slot.

Possibly... After Earth moved up a week to create some distance and MoS didn't follow it.

The reason may have been to let AE and Fast6/Hangover..etc die out a bit with a buffer week. If MoS moved up a week Monsters U might stay where it is in order to create a buffer week.

I suppose sometimes it's best to consider what comes out before you as well as after. I just know that AE is going to be a flop and MU isn't. WB should have considered that.

 

[Tobias]

Possibly... After Earth moved up a week to create some distance and MoS didn't follow it.

The reason may have been to let AE and Fast6/Hangover..etc die out a bit with a buffer week. If MoS moved up a week Monsters U might stay where it is in order to create a buffer week.

I suppose sometimes it's best to consider what comes out before you as well as after. I just know that AE is going to be a flop and MU isn't. WB should have considered that.

I think any June or late May opening would have been problematic. They couldn't go early May cause of IM3. Why it was moved from 12/12 I dunno.

The biggest BO winners tend to be early May, July 4th weekend - though SR was an exception and I don't know about TLR.

Batman - least the latter two - opened after the July 4th weekend as PR is.

 

[Marvin]

I think any June or late May opening would have been problematic. They couldn't go early May cause of IM3. Why it was moved from 12/12 I dunno.

The biggest BO winners tend to be early May, July 4th weekend - though SR was an exception and I don't know about TLR.

Batman - least the latter two - opened after the July 4th weekend as PR is.

Early may has also been traditionally followed by some pretty lame bombs as of late.

July 4th is solid but also last july, there's nothing the batman series has enjoyed more than facing off against the big August releases

It's sometimes hard for a studio to move a film up early cause of the way production/post production works. Often times it's to the wire. However WB has been sitting on a finished film for what seems like months.

 

[Notrip]

I think any June or late May opening would have been problematic. They couldn't go early May cause of IM3. Why it was moved from 12/12 I dunno.

The biggest BO winners tend to be early May, July 4th weekend - though SR was an exception and I don't know about TLR.

Batman - least the latter two - opened after the July 4th weekend as PR is.

It moved from 12/12 because of The Hobbit. WB did not want two of its biggest properties going head to head. That would have been dumb on their part. plus The Hobbit has three movies like LOTR. The move is like with The Great Gatsby (opened Mothers day weekend too about 15 more million than expected) Man of Steel opens Fathers day weekend, and this movie plays on that a lot. Good fathers day movie. (they will play that marketing hand close to release) and in 2016 hopefully Man of Steel 2 will move to July 22 2016.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Since the polls are closed, I predict $900 mil.

 

[damian99uk]

I've noticed a lot on here with regarding the figures guessed at for the bo of MoS that a lot of you are saying, that because it's a reboot then MoS doesn't have anything to help it out previously ala Im3 with the first two and the avengers etc. But I think you are all forgetting one thing, it does have films to help it out. The little known films by Chris Nolan called Batman begins, the dark knight and the dark knight rises. Because of his and goyers association with this film the ga who loved the batman films are going to go see this movie. plus it's been mentioned that the os promotion has been weak, well not in scotland it hasn't the tv spots are on regularly. I've seen trailer 3 and the international trailer with stid and oz the great and powerful.
Now I don't think it will go over 1b but I think it may just come close.

 

[Iceman]

Nolan sure. I'm pretty sure the GA have never heard of Goyer though.

 

[Mysteryman]

Having Nolans name attached to the film and its ads is a Great thing .
But, it probably wont break any box office records because of that .
If it does break records, it will be because they are excited by the finished product, which is as it should be .

 

[acedrake]

AMEN Mysteryman.

 

[db85usa]

Having Nolans name attached to the film and its ads is a Great thing .
But, it probably wont break any box office records because of that .
If it does break records, it will be because they are excited by the finished product, which is as it should be .

I disagree. I think a lot of people that saw The Dark Knight Rises will go see Man of Steel. We're lucky to have a Superman film one year after Batman and having the head honcho attaching his name to the project as a producer. Just having his name a part of the film itself and the fact that he came up with a story is nothing but a great thing for MoS.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

What happens if MOS pulls in Batman Begins like numbers (adjusted for inflation, of course) with the same critical enthusiasm? Are we looking at a sequel but no JLA? Or do they proceed with JLA anyway? Do they start from scratch altogether?

Personally, I would be pretty happy with that result, even though it would be under performing at the BO. I really just want a great film.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

What happens if MOS pulls in Batman Begins like numbers (adjusted for inflation, of course) with the same critical enthusiasm? Are we looking at a sequel but no JLA? Or do they proceed with JLA anyway? Do they start from scratch altogether?

Personally, I would be pretty happy with that result, even though it would be under performing at the BO. I really just want a great film.

JLA would feel too rushed for me immediately after MOS. I personally would prefer a MOS sequel with Luthor and Brainiac.

 

[DKDetective]

JLA would feel too rushed for me immediately after MOS. I personally would prefer a MOS sequel with Luthor and Brainiac.

I worry that Brainiac would feel redundant if they do indeed have a robot army in Man of Steel , especially since the Black Zero seems to have tentacles and some what organic in its design.

 

[Marvin]

What happens if MOS pulls in Batman Begins like numbers (adjusted for inflation, of course) with the same critical enthusiasm? Are we looking at a sequel but no JLA? Or do they proceed with JLA anyway? Do they start from scratch altogether?

Personally, I would be pretty happy with that result, even though it would be under performing at the BO. I really just want a great film.

I'd be pretty pissed. And I'd blame the marketing. It would mean that they had a film as big, fun and solid as the likes of Ironman, but a great majority of the public thought they were getting more Superman Returns.

I'm convinced that this is the result of Snyders hiring. The prime directive of the ad campaign is to prove this isn't a big dumb "typical Snyder action fest" and that it has story and pacing and a mature tone. Time will tell.

 

[Notrip]

Keep it away from Thursday!! Star Trek Into Darkness grossed 11.2 million on Thursday! people were predicting 18-22 million on Thursday! Expecting my 82 million OW prediction to be close! 100 million 4 day.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Keep it away from Thursday!! Star Trek Into Darkness grossed 11.2 million on Thursday! people were predicting 18-22 million on Thursday! Expecting my 82 million OW prediction to be close! 100 million 4 day.

What's the logic in moving the opening up a day?

Wasn't Superman Returns pushed up to a Wednesday release as well? This never seems to work out well.

 

[redp]

What's the logic in moving the opening up a day?

Wasn't Superman Returns pushed up to a Wednesday release as well? This never seems to work out well.

For Star Trek, the reason seems to be the competition. Having an extra day in theaters before the release of Fast 6 and Hangover Part III means that it can make more money.

 

[Liam_H]

Paramount just waited too long to move the date. They better hope it jumps up today.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Star Trek Into Darkness" numbers aren't looking great. Shame, I liked it a lot. And while it is early, I think all the talk of a massive jump was off and really always did.. I know fanboy properties get an extra boost on the net, but it is looking so far off what some were thinking.The crazy whispers of a billion.

I will say it now. Temper your expectations for MoS in terms of box office. Especially with the "Monsters Inc." sequel coming the next week.

 

[Project862006]

i disagree i know many people didn't even know it came out on wed hell i thought it came out today lol

 

[Liam_H]

Well it actually was released on Thursday, so Wednesday was the early shows/midnights.