Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - Part 11

[Ita-KalEl]

Saturday numbers $4.2 million; bringing us to $271 domestic



http://movies.yahoo.com/news/despicable-2-opens-huge-4-7m-shows-135525932.html

I have to say that I'm impressed.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Those numbers.

 

[Tra-El]

I have to say that I'm impressed.

Absolutely!

 

[DieSmiling]

I think ASM had a much harder sell than MoS.

Amazing Spider-Man
* Had to convince the general audience to watch the origin again with the origin still fresh in the memory.
* Raimi's Spider-Man was beloved and many people thought this reboot was way too soon.
* Many people were turned off Spider-Man by the disastrous SM3, sure SM3 made a ton of money but once bitten and all that.
* ASM was smack bang in the middle of the Avengers (a movie with 5 movie build up) and TDKR (end of the Nolan trilogy) ASM could have got lost in the hype of those two movies.

Man of Steel
* Coming off the back of the bore fest that was Superman returns.
* Retelling of the origin again.

I think you're discounting the advantage that TASM had of Spider-Man's increased cultural relevance due to the Raimi movies. Look at the number of animated series and merchandise sales Spider-Man had in the 2000s. I grew up in the late 80s and early 90s -- it was a Batman generation. The kids who grew up in the 2000s were most definitely a Spider-Man generation.

Superman had been a distant third for a long time and was then surpassed by Iron Man... I think MOS overcame a pretty big obstacle in that most people simply didn't think the character was cool or that he was relatable. They had to make him a big deal when he hadn't been for a LONG time. Spider-Man never ceased being a big deal.

I do think that retelling the origin story (and being sandwiched between Avengers and TDKR) hurt TASM though -- I'm curious what the box office is like for the sequel, if it reclaim the heights or if TASM is closer to what this part of the franchise will do.

 

[Marvin]

If MoS was performing as WHD and Lone Ranger, I'm could have seen the detractors having a field day in this thread. Funny some of them were acting like it was.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

If MoS was performing as WHD and Lone Ranger, I'm could have seen the detractors having a field day in this thread. Funny some of them were acting like it was.

Funny that some are still trying to throw any kind of excuse to throw out there that MOS is still a "failure".

 

[sf2]

I think you're discounting the advantage that TASM had of Spider-Man's increased cultural relevance due to the Raimi movies. Look at the number of animated series and merchandise sales Spider-Man had in the 2000s. I grew up in the late 80s and early 90s -- it was a Batman generation. The kids who grew up in the 2000s were most definitely a Spider-Man generation.

Superman had been a distant third for a long time and was then surpassed by Iron Man... I think MOS overcame a pretty big obstacle in that most people simply didn't think the character was cool or that he was relatable. They had to make him a big deal when he hadn't been for a LONG time. Spider-Man never ceased being a big deal.

I do think that retelling the origin story (and being sandwiched between Avengers and TDKR) hurt TASM though -- I'm curious what the box office is like for the sequel, if it reclaim the heights or if TASM is closer to what this part of the franchise will do.

that's very true. superman might be well known. but on the silver screen, he was way behind batman, spiderman and ironman. the overall perception of him was poor; goofy, boring and outdated. MOS indeed has overcame a lot, to finally bring superman back to the front line and be able to compete with them.

 

[STARMAN]

So far MOS has only had one week where it underperformed. The second week big drop-off. Otherwise it's done what it's supposed to do.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So far MOS has only had one week where it underperformed. The second week big drop-off. Otherwise it's done what it's supposed to do.

Too be fair, that was the biggest amount of money to lose.

 

[Micromind]

Some people are so much against watching a Superman movie that they needed to be convinced way they should go in a theater and watch a Superman movie, not so with Spider-Man, general audience are more favorable towards Spidey, sure some would be fans of Raimi's version of Spider-Man but they would still decide to go and see how the movie looks.

Not so easy to convince non superman fans as Superman was just not considered "cool".

Hell, there are some of my friends who still refuse to go to MOS, they would rather watch another TED / Hangover movie instead.

 

[STARMAN]

Yes. I was very critical of the second week drop-off. It negated some of the huge gains of week one. So instead of making 320. You're fighting for 300. It would be ironic if the Walmart tickets is what gets you over the top.

 

[kalhawj]

Saturday numbers $4.2 million; bringing us to $271 domestic



http://movies.yahoo.com/news/despicable-2-opens-huge-4-7m-shows-135525932.html

Awesome... I still bet we get some folks still think it cannot get to 300+ domestic. Anyway, I think it will end its dmoestic run at 315-320mil +.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Some people are so much against watching a Superman movie that they needed to be convinced way they should go in a theater and watch a Superman movie, not so with Spider-Man, general audience are more favorable towards Spidey, sure some would be fans of Raimi's version of Spider-Man but they would still decide to go and see how the movie looks.

Not so easy to convince non superman fans as Superman was just not considered "cool".

Hell, there are some of my friends who still refuse to go to MOS, they would rather watch another TED / Hangover movie instead.

That's sad and I know that feel.

 

[TheIrishAvenger]

@BoxOffice: MAN OF STEEL: $11.42M Weekend (est) / $271.21M Domestic Total / 2,905 Locations / $3,929 Location Avg. #ManOfSteel

https://***********/BoxOffice/status/353881824755318786

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

MOS will make it probably by late August.

But WB is probably willing to keep it in theaters far beyond that to hit the 300 m mark.

Labor Day weekend sounds about right.

 

[STARMAN]

After 280-285, it may become a slow crawl. Once a movie starts making less than a million a day, it feels like forever to accumulate big numbers.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Funny that some are still trying to throw any kind of excuse to throw out there that MOS is still a "failure".

Its not a failure. Its just not a huge success. No one was calling TASM a "huge success". Because it wasn't. The bar is much higher in 2013.

The movie isn't a critical success. Its gotten a mixed but generally above average response on this board and it will make plenty of money to guarantee a sequel but not enough to guarantee a ww flash or jl movie in the short term. That about sums it up.

 

[MANOFSTEELtrilogy]

Some people are so much against watching a Superman movie that they needed to be convinced way they should go in a theater and watch a Superman movie, not so with Spider-Man, general audience are more favorable towards Spidey, sure some would be fans of Raimi's version of Spider-Man but they would still decide to go and see how the movie looks.

Not so easy to convince non superman fans as Superman was just not considered "cool".

Hell, there are some of my friends who still refuse to go to MOS, they would rather watch another TED / Hangover movie instead.

From what I'm seeing in my family/freinds/family of friends, the teenagers all consider Superman to be cool because the trailers showed how much cooler Superman is than Batman/Ironman. The trailers instantly won over the teenagers (and 10-12-year-olds). The people who are trying not to see Superman as cool are the 20-30-year-olds who didn't like Superman Returns. Not even the trailers could win some of them people. So MOS has won the most important market - the teenagers. When MOS2 comes out all those teenagers will be eager and so will a lot of the 20-30 years who will have seen MOS on DVD or TV and finally be aware of MOS being the coolest franchise in the world.

 

[Cybermaxis]

Anyone know why the 14.6% bump on June 25? What's special or what happened on June25? http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=superman2012.htm

 

[GreenKToo]

It's gonna make about what I thought it would. around 310/315 dom. 650/700 total.
My gut said with MoS being a reboot that that number would be about what to expect, AND, its darn good numbers at that. Anyone thinking its a failure because it didnt make a billion is living in La La land.
Yeah, its a failure. I'm sure WB, snyder, and cavill will be thinking that while filming the sequel.

 

[Tra-El]

The movie isn't a critical success. Its gotten a mixed but generally above average response on this board..

For the most part, audiences have claimed success to the rebooted Super-franchise and responded either way to the newest origin and direction of the character.

..it will make plenty of money to guarantee a sequel but not enough to guarantee a ww flash or jl movie in the short term. That about sums it up

GREAT! Considering the approach WB and especially Snyder took from all of this, was to lift SUPERMAN off of the ground first and foremost and that approach highly succeeded.

There were NO cameo's from other League members. Just Easter Eggs to say "Okay, this is a wider universe." Man of Steel did its job. Now give us the sequel and let the second installment handle the burden of the future WW, Batman, GL, Flash, JL expectations.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Great success!

 

[sf2]

Some people are so much against watching a Superman movie that they needed to be convinced way they should go in a theater and watch a Superman movie, not so with Spider-Man, general audience are more favorable towards Spidey, sure some would be fans of Raimi's version of Spider-Man but they would still decide to go and see how the movie looks.

Not so easy to convince non superman fans as Superman was just not considered "cool".

Hell, there are some of my friends who still refuse to go to MOS, they would rather watch another TED / Hangover movie instead.

I felt the same. I told my friends MOS is cool n worth every penny. They laughed at me as childish. But they would queue at the mc donald to buy DM 2 toys.

So to my colleagues. They just think superman is boring n uncool. They would divert the topic to thor2 n wolverine.

That's why I can't find anyone to go with me for my 3rd viewing. I don't wanna go alone.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Eh maybe it comes down to semantics. If you loved the movie I suppose it was in a way a great success. Makes sense.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

Its not a failure. Its just not a huge success. No one was calling TASM a "huge success". Because it wasn't. The bar is much higher in 2013.

The movie isn't a critical success. Its gotten a mixed but generally above average response on this board and it will make plenty of money to guarantee a sequel but not enough to guarantee a ww flash or jl movie in the short term. That about sums it up.

Definitely not a critical success. Financially, definitely a hit and very successful. But your post doesn't completely sum it up. You mention mixed but generally above average response on this board but no mention of the audience ratings outside of this forum.

Metacritic
MOS - 8.0 user score (1482 ratings)
for comparison
IM3 - 6.5 user score (1173 ratings)
ASM - 7.2 user score (1087 ratings)
CA - 6.8 user score (604 ratings)
Thor - 6.9 user score (797 ratings)

IMDb
MOS - 7.8 (169,218 users)
for comparison
IM3 - 7.6 (199,129 users)
ASM - 7.1 (247,494 users)
CA - 6.8 (229,608 users)
Thor - 7.0 (274,424 users)

RottenTomatoes
MOS - 78% 4/5 avg rating (224,373 user ratings)
for comparison
IM3 - 83% 4/5 avg rating (206,134 user ratings)
ASM - 81% 4/5 avg rating (379,827 user ratings)
CA - 75% 3.8/5 avg rating (126,843 user ratings)
Thor - 80% 3.9/5 avg rating (120,032 user ratings)

I left out the TDK trilogy and The Avengers because that is the cream of the crop. But as one can see, MOS has been received very well with the general audience. Going just by the reaction on this board doesn't paint a complete picture.