Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - Part 11

[Project862006]

^MOS has 56 % on rt tho

 

[FlawlessVictory]

^MOS has 56 % on rt tho

I'm using just audience ratings for the sites. I acknowledged in my post that is not a critical success.

Definitely not a critical success. Financially, definitely a hit and very successful. But your post doesn't completely sum it up. You mention mixed but generally above average response on this board but no mention of the audience ratings outside of this forum.

Metacritic
MOS - 8.0 user score (1482 ratings)
for comparison
IM3 - 6.5 user score (1173 ratings)
ASM - 7.2 user score (1087 ratings)
CA - 6.8 user score (604 ratings)
Thor - 6.9 user score (797 ratings)

IMDb
MOS - 7.8 (169,218 users)
for comparison
IM3 - 7.6 (199,129 users)
ASM - 7.1 (247,494 users)
CA - 6.8 (229,608 users)
Thor - 7.0 (274,424 users)

RottenTomatoes
MOS - 78% 4/5 avg rating (224,373 user ratings)
for comparison
IM3 - 83% 4/5 avg rating (206,134 user ratings)
ASM - 81% 4/5 avg rating (379,827 user ratings)
CA - 75% 3.8/5 avg rating (126,843 user ratings)
Thor - 80% 3.9/5 avg rating (120,032 user ratings)

I left out the TDK trilogy and The Avengers because that is the cream of the crop. But as one can see, MOS has been received very well with the general audience. Going just by the reaction on this board doesn't paint a complete picture.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If PR bombs or under-performs i think WB might kick itself for not placing MoS in its spot instead, where it could arguably have had an easier/more profitable run than being released in the highly competitive mid june.

July has been a very sweet spot for WB the last several years.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I hope PR does well. So far, in 'Murica, it looks like it's tracking less than Grown Ups 2.

 

[MrMaooz]

If PR bombs or under-performs i think WB might kick itself for not placing MoS in its spot instead, where it could arguably have had an easier/more profitable run than being released in the highly competitive mid june.

July has been a very sweet spot for WB the last several years.

Well, The Conjuring will be their big hit this year.

 

[Sabaoth]

Some people are so much against watching a Superman movie that they needed to be convinced way they should go in a theater and watch a Superman movie, not so with Spider-Man, general audience are more favorable towards Spidey, sure some would be fans of Raimi's version of Spider-Man but they would still decide to go and see how the movie looks.

Not so easy to convince non superman fans as Superman was just not considered "cool".

Hell, there are some of my friends who still refuse to go to MOS, they would rather watch another TED / Hangover movie instead.

I'm sure MOS has succeeded in changing Superman's image in the consciousness of the general public. To the degree some people like some of your friends still refuse to see MOS, that will change by the time the sequel hits, after MOS has had a chance to grow its fan base via DVD, blu ray, HBO, Redbox, FX, etc.
By the time MOS 2 hits, your friends who refused to see it would likely have already seen it by then and know that the new Superman is not their father's Superman.
One of MOS's primary missions (anyone disagree please say so) was to change Superman's image in the minds of general audiences; they know MOS has succeeded in this and will continue to do so beyond the big screen in dvd, blu ray, HBO, etc.

 

[MrMaooz]

542 million!!!!

 

[JonKent]

Green Lantern is limited to what he can imagine ,while Superman can move a thousand times faster and think as fast,before Hal can react with his imaginary boxing glove.With super heat vision Superman can melt a GL's eyes in a nano of a second,no such thing as a blind GL Kyle once fought blinded but then again he's an artist so his imagination is a hundred times better than a regular GL. Superboy-Prime is slowed down by a 300-mile thick wall of pure willpower generated by the Green Lantern Corps. Breaking through, he battles and slaughters thirty-two Green Lanterns.Now imagine the New 52 Superman who can bench press the weight of the earth x5 for 3 days straight with that kind of power all his powers to the max he can really break even the living planet Mogo.
Now to the B.O. it looks like domestic it will be in the top 50's after this week and around 80's WW.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

542 million!!!!

And that's just from its gross in 'Murica! t:

 

[MrMaooz]

And that's just from its gross in 'Murica! t:

It's going to break Avatar's record of 760 million!!

Time to partaaay!

 

[TheNextNolan22]

It's going to break Avatar's record of 760 million!!

Time to partaaay!

 

[ConnorKon-El]

How much do we think it'll make next week+weekend ?

 

[STARMAN]

I'm going to guess 6 mill for next week.

 

[STARMAN]

Wait. I was thinking 6 mill for weekend.

 

[MrMaooz]

How much do we think it'll make next week+weekend ?

[YT]l91ISfcuzDw[/YT]

 

[STARMAN]

MU dropped 57% this weekend. See what direct competition does? DM2 cut into MU's legs.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Exactly right.. nowadays, and as the years go by, a lot more screens are built OS than the US...

If a movie doesn't approach 80% total of it's take from OS, it means, the movie is not marketed well OS or that it doesn't appeal to the OS market.. which means the hollywood studios need to start thinking of making movie that appeal to OS market, and spend proper amount of time/effot in the OS marketing..

Most of the (if not all) movies that hit 1B is thanks in large to the OS market... if you see a ratio of 70/30 (OS/Dom) or better, you know the movie is gonna be HUGE!!!

TDK and the Avengers do not fit that description at all. TDK did more then half its total domestically. The Avengers did over 40% of its take domestically. Same thing with TDKR, DMC, and Toy Story 3.

Am I to believe that those films films weren't huge or didn't market over seas well enough?

 

[JOE]

TASM's OS BO was the only reason it reached 750M. But they love Spider-Man on that side of the world. He's top 3 over there.

 

[Liam_H]

And the only reason any movie reaches a billion WW is because of OS.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's always easier for studios to market domestically just due to the fact that refers to just 2 countries the US and Canada and which the studios are very familiar with.

OS marketing is trickier because you are talking about many many countries, different languages, cultures etc. It's a lot trickier no doubt.

Not to mention studio's do get more bang for their buck from the domestic market than OS, due to the lack of currency exchanges and tarrifs and taxation. The amount of money studios make from china for example after all of that is actually surprisingly small. $100 million in China looks good on paper but it's not even remotely near that the studio rakes in.

 

[Sabaoth]

I thought that only 10-15% of the OS take goes to the studio, which is why the domestic number is so important. I learned that elsewhere. I've heard others elsewhere stick by that number, including people claiming to work in the industry. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I am not in the industry but here are examples to back up the notion that I've heard that only a tiny portion goes to the studio :
The Golden Compass
Eragon
Tron Legacy
............... WW grosses here merit sequels but they didn't happen because of a poor domestic performance.
Can anyone clarify how much the studio does take from the OS?

 

[STARMAN]

ASM box office looks much better because of big OS number of 490 mill foreign.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I thought that only 10-15% of the OS take goes to the studio, which is why the domestic number is so important. I learned that elsewhere. I've heard others elsewhere stick by that number, including people claiming to work in the industry. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I am not in the industry but here are examples to back up the notion that I've heard that only a tiny portion goes to the studio :
The Golden Compass
Eragon
Tron Legacy
............... WW grosses here merit sequels but they didn't happen because of a poor domestic performance.
Can anyone clarify how much the studio does take from the OS?

I'm not sure if that's the exact figure but yes the take is much smaller compared to domestic. I think it varies by country though.

WW numbers are always good for the prestige factor as they sound well big but not all numbers are equal.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The days of 10-15% are long over. Heck, it really has never been that. Most of the time when talking OS people factor in marketing and distribution.

 

[Mysteryman]

If MoS was performing as WHD and Lone Ranger, I'm could have seen the detractors having a field day in this thread. Funny some of them were acting like it was.

week 2 was rough in here, but week 3 quieted them down.