Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - Part 12

[ElDuderino]

I like using ticket sales to gauge popularity. That way you don't have to figure out inflation and 3D/2D sales ratio. For example, MOS long ago surpassed BB domestic total. But only recently surpassed ticket sales.

Shouldnt popularity be measured against comparable releases in the same era? If there are systemic changes across eras, it should affect every film, regardless.

 

[STARMAN]

I think you can use ticket sales as a generic gauge. Sure, if you go back to Gone With the Wind's era, than it may not be a fair comparison. But I think you can use it as a fair comparison to most recent comic book movies.

 

[sf2]

I like using ticket sales to gauge popularity. That way you don't have to figure out inflation and 3D/2D sales ratio. For example, MOS long ago surpassed BB domestic total. But only recently surpassed ticket sales.

hmmm... interesting. MOS isn't as popular as we thought. they just gotta work harder.

 

[dnno1]

I think you can use ticket sales as a generic gauge. Sure, if you go back to Gone With the Wind's era, than it may not be a fair comparison. But I think you can use it as a fair comparison to most recent comic book movies.

You can do that, but you have to correct for average ticket price. It varies from year to year.

 

[STARMAN]

That's why I like to use tickets sold. Not domestic gross.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

hmmm... interesting. MOS isn't as popular as we thought. they just gotta work harder.

Isn't it popular enough?

 

[Mysteryman]

Isn't it popular enough?

AS Soon as I hear that sequel announcement, my answer will be YES!

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

AS Soon as I hear that sequel announcement, my answer will be YES!

Indeed. I'm crossing my fingers it will happen on SDCC.

 

[ElDuderino]

The rest of the week could breakdown something like this...

Wed- 1.18(-20%)
Thur- 1.12(-5%)
Fri- 1.68(+50%)
Sat- 2.19(+30%)
Sun- 1.64(-25%)

So around $280-281M through this weekend. In all likelihood it will fall below $1M by monday.

I think your estimates are a hair on the conservative side, but even so if you add these to the actuals through Tuesday it's over $281. I'm guessing its at $282 after Sunday, it's 5th weekend.

By comparison, here's what other movies have made after their 5th weekend.

Thor -- $12
TASM -- $12
BB --$26
Iron Man -- $42
IM3 -- $25
X:FC -- $8

Once movies get past their 5th weekend the percentage drop goes down. To date, this movie has outperformed all but IM3 on this list. I'd say another $18 is extremely likely.

 

[sf2]

wow. Ironman could make $42M in it's 5th week!!! awesome indeed.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

I think your estimates are a hair on the conservative side, but even so if you add these to the actuals through Tuesday it's over $281. I'm guessing its at $282 after Sunday, it's 5th weekend.

By comparison, here's what other movies have made after their 5th weekend.

Thor -- $12
TASM -- $12
BB --$26
Iron Man -- $42
IM3 -- $25
X:FC -- $8

Once movies get past their 5th weekend the percentage drop goes down. To date, this movie has outperformed all but IM3 on this list. I'd say another $18 is extremely likely.

$282 Million was my estimate also. Hopefully we are both correct

 

[Liam_H]

wow. Ironman could make $42M in it's 5th week!!! awesome indeed.

After its 5th weekend.

 

[113]

I think your estimates are a hair on the conservative side, but even so if you add these to the actuals through Tuesday it's over $281. I'm guessing its at $282 after Sunday, it's 5th weekend.

By comparison, here's what other movies have made after their 5th weekend.

Thor -- $12
TASM -- $12
BB --$26
Iron Man -- $42
IM3 -- $25
X:FC -- $8

Once movies get past their 5th weekend the percentage drop goes down. To date, this movie has outperformed all but IM3 on this list. I'd say another $18 is extremely likely.

So basically we're going to look at a real slow crawl to $300m. I'm sure WB will try to keep it in theaters for as long as possible to make sure they get it. We might we waiting until September, which I'm fine with. It would be really nice to get $300 at least.

 

[sf2]

So basically we're going to look at a real slow crawl to $300m. I'm sure WB will try to keep it in theaters for as long as possible to make sure they get it. We might we waiting until September, which I'm fine with. It would be really nice to get $300 at least.

Does WB have a say in the theaters? Can WB do that?

 

[J.Howlett]

Does WB have a say in the theaters? Can WB do that?

The Dark Knight stayed in theatres until December. Yeah, it can happen.

 

[Herolee10]

Does WB have a say in the theaters? Can WB do that?

I also believe that Warner Bros. had prolonged SR's showings at theaters till like August as well since they were trying to get the film to make 200 million domestically, which it did...barely and only because they kept it out for so long.

 

[BH/HHH]

So what's MOS at WW now?

 

[TheNextNolan22]

So what's MOS at WW now?

$589 Million.

 

[Gur-Ak]

so what's mos at ww now?

$589,530,420

 

[robot]

Does WB have a say in the theaters? Can WB do that?

The Dark Knight stayed in theatres until December. Yeah, it can happen.

I also believe that Warner Bros. had prolonged SR's showings at theaters till like August as well since they were trying to get the film to make 200 million domestically, which it did...barely and only because they kept it out for so long.

I think we have asked this question before.. Does a movie stay in theaters have anything to do with Studios?? How do you 'keep' a movie in cinemas if it's not selling seats compared to newer movies that will sell more seats (and pop corns and coke and hot dog)?

If you ask me, I think beyond a certain 'contract period' like say guarantee to keep the movie on for 3 weeks in certain screens, etc.. the studios will not be able to force theater owners to keep a movie on for any longer... unless they are paying studios to do so...IMO

 

[spider-neil]

Tickets sold isn't a fair comparison, for example 30 years there was no piracy. Or in this day and age DVD from movies is faster than ever (sometimes as little as 3 months) so people can skip a movie knowing they'll get the DVD sooner rather than later.

 

[BH/HHH]

$589 Million.

$589,530,420

Thanks guys

 

[sf2]

I think we have asked this question before.. Does a movie stay in theaters have anything to do with Studios?? How do you 'keep' a movie in cinemas if it's not selling seats compared to newer movies that will sell more seats (and pop corns and coke and hot dog)?

If you ask me, I think beyond a certain 'contract period' like say guarantee to keep the movie on for 3 weeks in certain screens, etc.. the studios will not be able to force theater owners to keep a movie on for any longer... unless they are paying studios to do so...IMO

Make sense. Therefore it is really up to the cinema operator for the movie to stay or go. Right?

 

[robot]

Make sense. Therefore it is really up to the cinema operator for the movie to stay or go. Right?

IMO that's how it would work...

If a movie doesn't do well, it'll lose a lot more screens faster... Take Avatar for instance, it was on top for 20 weeks. Theaters would not take it out...

 

[Dr.]

So basically we're going to look at a real slow crawl to $300m. I'm sure WB will try to keep it in theaters for as long as possible to make sure they get it. We might we waiting until September, which I'm fine with. It would be really nice to get $300[M] at least.

Comparing days of release, MOS is still tracking ahead of Iron Man (which ended up with a $318M domestic total). But IM’s “legs,” in the final stretch, may end up being stronger than MOS’s. That said, something in the $300M range seems doable.