Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - Part 12

[Liam_H]

You have it dropping about 50% per week. It can only drop around 45% per week to reach $300M domestic. Or at least be close enough for WB to push it to that mark.

 

[sf2]

wow. My favorite thread is dying out.
I was examining the potential road to 300 domestic.

By Sunday, 7/14, MOS should be at 281.
then 7/15- 7/21 - +6 mil = 287 mil
and 7/22- 7/28 - +3 mil = 290 mil
and then ??????

I can't see it going over 292- 295 at best.
I want to be wrong about this!

i think you are not wrong...

unless they reopen the screens for it.

 

[mace1]

I found this interesting.




by bozo_500
this will end up doing similar box office to Superman II


Superman Box Office (adjusted)

original figures are from BOmojo

STM (1978)
budget = 55m (200m in 2013)

Domestic:
$134,218,018
Foreign:
$166,000,000
= Worldwide:
$300,218,018

$300m ww = $1.1b ww in 2013 $ (so really STM was like The Dark Knight of its day box office wise)


SII (1980)
budget = 55m (155m in 2013)

Domestic: $108,185,706
Forgien = ?

domestic is about $305m when adjusted...overseas was probably abit less than STM so maybe 140m, (395m adjusted) so about $250m overall ww in 1980 - so overall adjusted SII is about $700m ww...(maybe the domestic drop was partly due to II being released in the US the weekend after Raiders in summer 81? )

SIII (1983)
budget = ? (gotta be less than I & II - est 40m - about 100m today)

Domestic: $60m
Forgien = ?

$60m in 1983 is about $140m when adjusted - so not too bad....and judging by the domestic decline, overseas will have also fallen quite abit - so maybe about $80m for overseas - so $140m total in 83 would be roughly around $325m-350m ww when adjusted - a big drop from I and II, but far from the flop everyone makes out..

Supergirl (1984)
Budget = 35m (80m adjusted)

Domestic - 17m
Forgien = ?

17m is 38m today. Forgien probably about the same = 35m ( roughly $80m today)

SIV (1987)
budget $17 m ($35m when adjusted - budget was originally 36m but was cut at shortly b4 prod. 36m = 75m in 2013 which is still not too big for a Superman film)

Domestic: $15,681,020
Forgien = ?

domestic be about 30m now, and overseas was prob about the same as US so 30m ww in total in 87 - would that be about $60m ww today

SR (2006)
budget $270m (but about 70m of that was previous attempts - Burton, Cage, Ratner, Abrams etc - 270m = 310m today. 200m = 230m today)

Domestic: $200,081,192
+ Foreign: $191,000,000
= Worldwide: $391,081,192

391 in 2006 = about $450m ww in 2013 (if SR had made 450m there probably wouldve been a sequel)


prediction for MOS (budget 225m):

domestic = 300m
overseas = 400m

total $700m
(quite apt considering its a remake of II)



___________________
by clyons




Fantastic post--thanks for doing all that math.

Basically, Superman II was considered a failure at the time--not a flop, but a disappointment, and that's why III was made for a lower budget, and they brought in Richard Pryor. To start with II's box office--not good. So anyway, does this mean the next movie will have Eddie Murphy in it?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0770828/board/flat/216884797?p=1

 

[Herolee10]

How is MOS a remake of SII???

 

[Cantis1]

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for $300 million domestic!

*fingers crossed*

 

[Street Vendor]

I found this interesting.




by bozo_500
this will end up doing similar box office to Superman II


Superman Box Office (adjusted)

original figures are from BOmojo

STM (1978)
budget = 55m (200m in 2013)

Domestic:
$134,218,018
Foreign:
$166,000,000
= Worldwide:
$300,218,018

$300m ww = $1.1b ww in 2013 $ (so really STM was like The Dark Knight of its day box office wise)


SII (1980)
budget = 55m (155m in 2013)

Domestic: $108,185,706
Forgien = ?

domestic is about $305m when adjusted...overseas was probably abit less than STM so maybe 140m, (395m adjusted) so about $250m overall ww in 1980 - so overall adjusted SII is about $700m ww...(maybe the domestic drop was partly due to II being released in the US the weekend after Raiders in summer 81? )

SIII (1983)
budget = ? (gotta be less than I & II - est 40m - about 100m today)

Domestic: $60m
Forgien = ?

$60m in 1983 is about $140m when adjusted - so not too bad....and judging by the domestic decline, overseas will have also fallen quite abit - so maybe about $80m for overseas - so $140m total in 83 would be roughly around $325m-350m ww when adjusted - a big drop from I and II, but far from the flop everyone makes out..

Supergirl (1984)
Budget = 35m (80m adjusted)

Domestic - 17m
Forgien = ?

17m is 38m today. Forgien probably about the same = 35m ( roughly $80m today)

SIV (1987)
budget $17 m ($35m when adjusted - budget was originally 36m but was cut at shortly b4 prod. 36m = 75m in 2013 which is still not too big for a Superman film)

Domestic: $15,681,020
Forgien = ?

domestic be about 30m now, and overseas was prob about the same as US so 30m ww in total in 87 - would that be about $60m ww today

SR (2006)
budget $270m (but about 70m of that was previous attempts - Burton, Cage, Ratner, Abrams etc - 270m = 310m today. 200m = 230m today)

Domestic: $200,081,192
+ Foreign: $191,000,000
= Worldwide: $391,081,192

391 in 2006 = about $450m ww in 2013 (if SR had made 450m there probably wouldve been a sequel)


prediction for MOS (budget 225m):

domestic = 300m
overseas = 400m

total $700m
(quite apt considering its a remake of II)



___________________
by clyons




Fantastic post--thanks for doing all that math.

Basically, Superman II was considered a failure at the time--not a flop, but a disappointment, and that's why III was made for a lower budget, and they brought in Richard Pryor. To start with II's box office--not good. So anyway, does this mean the next movie will have Eddie Murphy in it?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0770828/board/flat/216884797?p=1

SUPERMAN II was a blockbuster hit in 1981, far from a disappointment. Most sequels didn't do as much business as the original, and SII followed suit, but as sequels went, it was one of the biggest ever. Compare JAWS II to JAWS for instance. SUPERMAN II broke the opening weekend record when it was released, smashed the second weekend record, and then went on to garner over 100 Million dollars domestically, which was a major feat in the early eighties. Yes, RAIDERS did cut into its boxoffice, but not at first. SII just didn't have the staying power that RAIDERS did, but both were huge hits. I even remember news reports on Labor Day that summer proclaiming 1981 "the biggest box office summer in history", and every report mentioned just two movies, RAIDERS and SUPERMAN II, as the reason.
III's smaller budget was because the Salkind's were cheap, not because they felt they had to cut back because of II's box office performance. And 35 Million was still a huge budget in 1982-83. ESB's budget was only 25 Million.
Sorry for the long post, and no offense was meant. But I remember the reception SUPERMAN II had in the summer of '81, and it was a huge crowd pleaser. Saw it five times theatrically, and every time it attracted huge crowds and loud cheers and applause throughout the entire second half of the movie when Superman came back from the Fortress to kick Zod's ass. I also saw RAIDERS about 10 times(!), and while everyone loved it, never once did the audiences react to it with loud applause at any viewing(except, of course, when Indy shot the swordsman).

 

[Knightstalker]

(quite apt considering its a remake of II)

So by this guys logic, TDK was a remake of Batman 89 because they both had the Joker in them...

 

[Knightstalker]

Just noticed that MoS has shot past Iron Man's WW total of 585 million. Be interesting see if it can take out IM2's total of 623 million WW.

 

[InJustice]

(quite apt considering its a remake of II)

Anyways, I highly doubt it'll reach 300mil domestically, we might see it fizzle onto the 290mil-295mil. 300mil would be awesome to see though.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Just noticed that MoS has shot past Iron Man's WW total of 585 million. Be interesting see if it can take out IM2's total of 623 million WW.

It will probably pass it already on this weekend.

 

[sf2]

It will probably pass it already on this weekend.

yes. with Brazil coming in to help.

Brazil opens this weekend, right?

 

[Cantis1]

Just noticed that MoS has shot past Iron Man's WW total of 585 million. Be interesting see if it can take out IM2's total of 623 million WW.

But wait? I thought MoS is a failure??

/tongue in cheek

Brazil opens this weekend, right?

Didn't Brazil already open? I thought I saw some Brazillian posters say that it has...

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

Actually, it opens here this weekend. There were some previews 2 weeks ago, though.

 

[sf2]

Actually, it opens here this weekend. There were some previews 2 weeks ago, though.

now the ball has passed to the Brazilian.
hopefully they will love it.

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

now the ball has passed to the Brazilian.
hopefully they will love it.

I've said it before: I think it will do great here. The word of mouth from the previews was, in general, very positive.

 

[BH/HHH]

Well I've done my fair share for the box office, in total I've purchased 6 tickets for this film even thought I've only seen it three times, I paid for a ticket for a showing I couldn't make (no refunds) paid for myself to see it the day after that, paid for me and a friend to see it the week after and lastly paid for me and my missus to see it Sunday just gone.

 

[BH/HHH]

So by this guys logic, TDK was a remake of Batman 89 because they both had the Joker in them...

The sad thing is there's a few people that have called MOS a remake of Superman I and II combined. I always say what you say that by that logic TDK is a remake of B89. Its stupid they need to watch the film first they're really quite different.

 

[robot]

The sad thing is there's a few people that have called MOS a remake of Superman I and II combined. I always say what you say that by that logic TDK is a remake of B89. Its stupid they need to watch the film first they're really quite different.

Call it a reboot or remake, it's the same thing, isn't it?

If you're remaking the first movie, then it's a reboot... So, it's all just semantics...

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

The sad thing is there's a few people that have called MOS a remake of Superman I and II combined. I always say what you say that by that logic TDK is a remake of B89. Its stupid they need to watch the film first they're really quite different.

Remake of two combined movies: that's a new concept to me.t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The sad thing is there's a few people that have called MOS a remake of Superman I and II combined. I always say what you say that by that logic TDK is a remake of B89. Its stupid they need to watch the film first they're really quite different.

You mean like our brave mod Showtime?

This is a completely different scenario. It isn't even close really.

Batman '89 has more in common with Begins in terms of plot and concept then it does TDK. The Joker and Harvey Dent are both in Batman '89 and TDK, but that is about where the comparisons end. The Dark Knight is a vastly different beast.

Man of Steel takes the characters, plot and general concept from STM and Superman II. In Man of Steel, they even run out the same basic trio of Kryptonians for Superman to fight, even though there are double digits worth at Zod's disposal.

That doesn't make it bad, I love it and think it is great, but I also acknowledge what it is.

Remake of two combined movies: that's a new concept to me.t:

You do realize that the original concept behind Superman the Movie and Superman II was to play as one big film right? That is why the first starts with Zod and the second was originally suppose to end with Superman flying through time.

 

[ArmsHeldOut]

The sad thing is there's a few people that have called MOS a remake of Superman I and II combined. I always say what you say that by that logic TDK is a remake of B89. Its stupid they need to watch the film first they're really quite different.

It's not a big deal. On the surface, MOS looks like a remake of Superman I and II to some people because it's an origin film with familiar antagonists. Beyond those similarities, though, it's obviously very different.

 

[JOE]

The reviews for PR keep pouring in, and they're very positive. Even Jeremy Jahns, who's reviews I trust, gave it "Awesometacular!" which is his highest form of rating.

This might be a contender for biggest action movie of the year, and by it's reviews it could be the best.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I did see Pacific Rim at an early screening last night and it was great. Hope it does do well.

 

[JangoNate]

The reviews for PM keep pouring in, and they're very positive. Even Jeremy Jahns, who's reviews I trust, gave it "Awesometacular!" which is his highest form of rating.

This might be a contender for biggest action movie of the year, and by it's reviews it could be the best.

Did you mean PR? If so, I noticed that, too. I hope it's great and plan on seeing it Monday with my dad in IMAX 3D. It'll be tough to top my current fave, MOS, but I'm sure I'll enjoy it. Critics biggest complaint is that the human is blah and generic, but the action is the stuff of legend.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

A remake is based strictly on another movie.

A reboot is based on source material outside of movies but covers the same character(s) as a previous movie franchise.