Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - - - - - Part 14

[ironman_rick]

Not doing too shabby with the finances either.



http://www.forbes.com/sites/dorothy...orbes-list-of-hollywoods-highest-paid-actors/

No suprises there........... But the rock is at number 5. t:

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Summer 2015 belongs to Disney, Batman/Superman crossover or no. They might just end up as the OCP of movie studios.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Is it just me, or does Warner Bros. seem utterly incapable of controlling the budgets on its would-be summer tentpoles? I'm not quite sure how a Lone Ranger movie ends up costing $250 million. But the $200 million+ cost of MOS gives me deja vu from the SR days, where extreme pressure is put on the Superman film in question to be a bona fide box office phenomenon - just to make up for that bloated budget.

A mere "hit" doesn't even cover it, which is why some in this thread can look at $285 million domestic and $650 million worldwide and consider that a "flop" (!).

A recent op-ed on the Sleepy Skunk website had some interesting thoughts on the state of the summer blockbuster in 2013:

The pressure to fill a limited number of available summer weekends with successful content is enormous. We’re now witnessing what amounts to a special effects arms race between studios, as they each try to outdo each other with an ever more impressive level of spectacle. As this arms race has escalated, the budgets of studio tentpoles have gotten absolutely out of control. In 2003, there were 10 wide releases that came in with reported budgets of $100 million or higher. By 2012, there were 23 films with reported budgets at that level. Seven of these films had budgets of $200 million or higher. The most expensive film of 2002 was Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines with a reported budget of $170 million. That a $170 million budget should seem quaint in retrospect is the ultimate indictment of a broken business model.

The current environment, in which inevitable release dates are given to films of escalating cost, can be distilled to a simple proposition that helps explain the dearth of originality in the marketplace: major Hollywood studios are no longer in the business of trying to create hits; they are in the business of trying to avoid bombs.

Lone Ranger lost between 50 - 75 mil in production costs simply due to delays. Add another 20 mil for Depp's off the cuff salary and that means the movie only cost about 160 or so. Still too much IMO for the movie but they did build an entire, full scale railroad system plus three working steam engines which cost the better half of the budget. Either way, it cost too much. Disney knew that, but went ahead with it anyway because they can afford to take risks (Persia, Tron Legacy, John Carter) without breaking a sweat when one big movie a year flops. They have marvel and pixar plus their own animated movies to easily cover loses.

Personally I don't think MOS was worth the 225 they reportedly put into it. Avengers is the only movie out recently that cost around that and was worth the money. I don't even think TDKR needed the budget it had, but that was justified because they knew it would break a billion.

As much as some people try to act like they didnt it seems pretty obvious WB wanted MOS to break a billion. That's the newfound staple for a tentpole win. Oz did it this year too, and it didn't have the Marvel push.

650 mil isn't a flop. Not even close. But it's not very financially successful. Look at the figures from Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix as an example. It cost about 315 mil to produce, market and distribute and it made a little over 600 mil. That's including producing/distributing home video and profits from that. The movie literally broke even:

The main differences between that movie and this one (aside from inflation) are that MOS had a major 3D push to get to where it is now and WB didn't have to give another studio 25% of the take (which they do with Legendary for MOS)

Meaning, as MOS stands right now it will need a big return on home video just to break even.

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

I know this has nothing to do with the Box Office, but do we know about how much Cavill earned for playing Supes? I'm just curious because he isn't an A-List actor (yet) in Hollywood. So I would think it would be a relatively small amount by Hollywood standards.

 

[Poni_Boy]

A stick of bubble gum and first crack at Amy Adams

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

As much as some people try to act like they didnt it seems pretty obvious WB wanted MOS to break a billion. That's the newfound staple for a tentpole win.

Reminds me of this article by Scott Mendelson:

On the danger of the normalization of the $1 billion blockbuster

Even as some sense of fiscal sanity has returned to Hollywood over the last few years in terms of reasonably budgeted adult genre fare (think the $45 million spent on Argo or $13 million spent on The Call), spending on too many of the would-be tent poles presumes not just blockbuster status but near record box office triumphs.

That's the problem here. Not every blockbuster can be an earth-shattering, record-breaking hit for the ages that makes over a billion dollars - but that's how so many summer tentpoles now appear to be budgeted.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Absolutely. MOS should not have cost what it did. WB realized this too late in the game, that's why they did the big 3D push and front loaded the marketing for opening weekend. If you actually look at tickets sold (which eliminates the whole inflation and 3D adjustment) you'll see MOS didn't do that great. Hasn't even cracked the top 200

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?adjust_yr=1p=.htm

 

[kalelvis]

Lone Ranger lost between 50 - 75 mil in production costs simply due to delays. Add another 20 mil for Depp's off the cuff salary and that means the movie only cost about 160 or so. Still too much IMO for the movie but they did build an entire, full scale railroad system plus three working steam engines which cost the better half of the budget. Either way, it cost too much. Disney knew that, but went ahead with it anyway because they can afford to take risks (Persia, Tron Legacy, John Carter) without breaking a sweat when one big movie a year flops. They have marvel and pixar plus their own animated movies to easily cover loses.

Personally I don't think MOS was worth the 225 they reportedly put into it. Avengers is the only movie out recently that cost around that and was worth the money. I don't even think TDKR needed the budget it had, but that was justified because they knew it would break a billion.

As much as some people try to act like they didnt it seems pretty obvious WB wanted MOS to break a billion. That's the newfound staple for a tentpole win. Oz did it this year too, and it didn't have the Marvel push.

650 mil isn't a flop. Not even close. But it's not very financially successful. Look at the figures from Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix as an example. It cost about 315 mil to produce, market and distribute and it made a little over 600 mil. That's including producing/distributing home video and profits from that. The movie literally broke even:

The main differences between that movie and this one (aside from inflation) are that MOS had a major 3D push to get to where it is now and WB didn't have to give another studio 25% of the take (which they do with Legendary for MOS)

Meaning, as MOS stands right now it will need a big return on home video just to break even.

A couple of quick comments....Oz did not hit a billion, it is sitting at under 500 mil ww.

WB does have to split the take on MoS with Legendary but that is only because they paid part of the production cost.

If there is anything major studios are good at it is hiding profits and reporting extra costs. It lowers payment to people who have profit points.

While it has been posted several times, MoS has made significant profit for WB and while it may have disappointed some, they wouldn't be moving forward with the same team if they didn't like who it all turned out.

This movie will have a huge home video run layering on more profits especially when they announce the extended edition about a month after the sales of the standard editions slow down.

 

[Superchan]

Sigh, honestly why do I even bother....there is no point of trying to change some fanboys' minds, for some of you this film is a flop no matter what and that's sad but oh well! I know personally that I'm happy and proud that my favorite character is still alive, profitable and kicking!

 

[Poni_Boy]

A couple of quick comments....Oz did not hit a billion, it is sitting at under 500 mil ww.

Yeah sorry I meant The Hobbit. Overtired

 

[Poni_Boy]

Don't think anyone is saying it's a flop. There's a big difference between a flop and a disappointment. It's not one or the other. And there are different levels of disappointment as well. But when a studio puts $225 mil into producing a movie and $150 mil into marketing/distributing it you'd damn well believe they hoped it would hit or get close to a billion. If you're not then you're fooling yourself.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Sigh, honestly why do I even bother....there is no point of trying to change some fanboys' minds, for some of you this film is a flop no matter what and that's sad but oh well! I know personally that I'm happy and proud that my favorite character is still alive, profitable and kicking!

Apparently not profitable enough for a solo sequel though.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Apparently not profitable enough for a solo sequel though.

Ding ding ding. That's by far the biggest confirmation they were disappointed with returns. They want to guarantee that 1b slot next time around.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Ding ding ding. That's by far the biggest confirmation they were disappointed with returns.

Do you mean MOS?

 

[Namor!]

I loved Man of Steel but a lot of my family and friends really didn't like the movie. I really thought this movie would make a lot more than it has.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Do you mean MOS?

returns as in box office returns

 

[Kryptonian Warrior]

Do you mean MOS?

I think he means Box Office returns.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

He did. I just thought he was still tired.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Oh I am. Very tired. About 5 hrs of sleep since getting back from comic con. Bleh

 

[Superchan]

Don't think anyone is saying it's a flop. There's a big difference between a flop and a disappointment. It's not one or the other. And there are different levels of disappointment as well. But when a studio puts $225 mil into producing a movie and $150 mil into marketing/distributing it you'd damn well believe they hoped it would hit or get close to a billion. If you're not then you're fooling yourself.

The only one fooling himself is you, you seem to conveniently forget about the 170 million dollar cross promotional profits that the movie made before a single shot of film was released. The film will end up with a 650-660 mill world wide and you can sit here and spell doom for the rest of the week (or maybe you're just trolling in that case let me know so I can stop wasting my time responding to your posts) but this film is the highest grossing reboot domestically, the 3rd highest grossing movie of the summer in the USA and the second highest grossing reboot WW (after ASM).
And reboots don't make billions and if WB expects a billion every time they attempted a reboot then batman begins (cost a 150 million +100 mill marketing) would've been considered a financial disaster but the studio was pleased with the critical reception for the film and the solid DVD sales and a sequel was green lit.
This goes for all reboots (non of which even touched the billion, not even a masterpiece like casino royale). Reboots are made to establish some faith in the franchise and then attempt to break records with the sequels

Apparently not profitable enough for a solo sequel though.

Sigh. Ok I'll give this another shot just because reading some of the asinine comments on SHH boards is becoming a guilty pleasure of mine.
Simply put if the studio isn't happy with the film's performance then why get the EXACT SAME team on world's finest, had they changed snyder or goyer or atleast add another writer then I would concede that the studio deemed it necessary to make some changes, but WB got the same damn team to make their box office title challenge in 2015. Honestly guys I said this probably 10 times already but some of you just want to b**ch about something, which is getting old fast.

Ding ding ding. That's by far the biggest confirmation they were disappointed with returns. They want to guarantee that 1b slot next time around.

Finally we agree on something! 2015 is the magic number here, WB knows that disney hold all the cards in that year (avengers 2, starwars vII, Nemo II and pirates 5...yeesh!!) and only a fool would expect superman (or a batman reboot that no one is asking for or wants this soon after Nolan) would stand a chance in hell of standing up to that. So you know what I don't blame WB for not having enough faith in MOS solo sequel to stand up to that kind of onslaught because that's just unrealistic even if the film made a damn billion, whats that compared to the sequel to the 1.5 billion avengers sequel or star wars or even finding nemo (made 850 million years ago....so just imagine what a well made sequel can do!).

 

[Poni_Boy]

That was a very *********ory post. Everyone who has any knowledge of how film production works has noted that the movie did not do as well as expected. Read any of the reports from the trades, financial outlets, etc. Only a few rabid fanboys seem to feel the need to categorize this as a doom and gloom mentality instead of the factual reality. I didn't invest one dollar in this movie, so I have no problem whatsoever talking about it objectively because what it makes or doesn't make won't affect me personally. But, hey, if it helps you sleep at night by all means roll with calling it whatever you want to call it.

 

[Superchan]

That was a very *********ory post. Everyone who has any knowledge of how film production works has noted that the movie did not do as well as expected. Read any of the reports from the trades, financial outlets, etc. Only a few rabid fanboys seem to feel the need to categorize this as a doom and gloom mentality instead of the factual reality. I didn't invest one dollar in this movie, so I have no problem whatsoever talking about it objectively because what it makes or doesn't make won't affect me personally. But, hey, if it helps you sleep at night by all means roll with calling it whatever you want to call it.

I would love to see a link to those reports, I have read the reports from boxoffice mojo and boxoffice.com (the sites that know a thing or 2 about box office) and they seem to agree that the film is a hit for WB.
But you seem to be trolling, so I'm just gonna stop wasting my time with another ? closet marvel fanboy who is obviously scared that his avengers sequel is gonna play second fiddle to the world's finest.

 

[robot]

I loved Man of Steel but a lot of my family and friends really didn't like the movie. I really thought this movie would make a lot more than it has.

Yup same here. I have dragged a couple dozen people to see the movie. The reaction is pretty mixed. From 10% who are like me, who absolutely LOVED it, but also saw some problems with the movie (like the pacing, flashbacks which were cut short mostly, lack of hope/fun, too gloomy/emo), but majority thought it was just 'so-so', and the bottom 15% hated it...

Don't think anyone is saying it's a flop. There's a big difference between a flop and a disappointment. It's not one or the other. And there are different levels of disappointment as well. But when a studio puts $225 mil into producing a movie and $150 mil into marketing/distributing it you'd damn well believe they hoped it would hit or get close to a billion. If you're not then you're fooling yourself.

My sentiments exactly. It's not a flop financially. WB made back it's money, and that's saying something. Nowadays, most movies don't make back their costs. So, in that regard, it's a success for sure.

But this is WB's BIG GUN Summer Blockbuster, their tent-pole, and I am sure they are disappointed with the total numbers. They are probably secretly expecting 800M and above. And I actually blame them because the movie as is could easily have made it to 800M or more, if they had picked a better release date, and actually spent some of those dimes / efforts marketing it well overseas (like how IM3 marketed itself). They spent a lot of money marketing Pacific Rim overseas, and i think those money is better spent marketing MOS. With better marketing/better time slot (say PR's time slot and PR's OS marketing budget), WB would have secured their 800M.

That was a very *********ory post. Everyone who has any knowledge of how film production works has noted that the movie did not do as well as expected. Read any of the reports from the trades, financial outlets, etc. Only a few rabid fanboys seem to feel the need to categorize this as a doom and gloom mentality instead of the factual reality. I didn't invest one dollar in this movie, so I have no problem whatsoever talking about it objectively because what it makes or doesn't make won't affect me personally. But, hey, if it helps you sleep at night by all means roll with calling it whatever you want to call it.

I find that on forums such as this (it's called MAN OF STEEL for a reason), beware if you're trying to be honest and objective. Most here hate it if anyone dare say that MOS is not PERFECTLY GREAT as is...

I personally loved the movie, yet, my eyes are opened.. the GA is not totally enamored with it.. I wish there were though,... the stats are all out there for all to see (those who can see that is, and not make excuses for it)... if the GA all really liked it like some FANBOYS would have you think, then it would not have dropped 70% one week, 60% another, and dropping so much week after week... sure, it's a crowded Summer, but still, this is approaching world record drop rate... other movies are also in the same boat but did not drop as quickly....

----

Anyways, since I love the movie, today decided to drag more ppl to watch it... this time on regular 2D. This is my 4th viewing, still liked it, but it can't even come close to watching it on Imax 3D...

My brother hated it... but the rest thought it was ok...

There's only ONE screen left in my city (from the 2 major Cinema Operators in my country).. and 2 showings/day. And only 30% full.

 

[Superchan]

I find that on forums such as this (it's called MAN OF STEEL for a reason), beware if you're trying to be honest and objective. Most here hate it if anyone dare say that MOS is not PERFECTLY GREAT as is...

There is no such thing as objectivity on these boards, you people throwing words like disappointment or I think the studio expected 800 without a shred of evidence and I keep asking the same question "if the film is a disappointment then why did WB tap the same team to direct their biggest film of 2015?" It's a simple question with a simple answer, because MOS is a profitable film that did what it set out to do, make money for the studio and open the gates for the larger DC universe. Could the movie have been more profitable, absolutely I think with a better release date it would've made more (how much more we'll never know) but when people on this board talk about "trades reports" on what a disappointment this film is when all legit boxoffice sites acknowledge that the film is a certified financial success but a mixed critical/public reaction thus contributing to larger subsequent drops.

if the GA all really liked it like some FANBOYS would have you think, then it would not have dropped 70% one week, 60% another, and dropping so much week after week... sure, it's a crowded Summer, but still, this is approaching world record drop rate... other movies are also in the same boat but did not drop as quickly....

The drop have been large I grant you and I'm the first person to tell you that the film has some glaring deficits in pacing and the third act is a mess thus contributing to mixed WOM and larger drops, but the june spot is just landmine for any summer film yet despite of that the film is the top grossing reboot domestically and the 3rd highest grossing movie of the summer, yet some trolls here still shout "disappointment!" LOL! these boards are hilarious honestly.
The people you've spoken to may not have liked it but almost everyone I spoke to loved the film, heck my best friend was a proud superman hater and now he's actually asking me to watch the original Chris Reeve movies with him.

 

[spider-neil]

With all the Batman/Superman stuff gone, the MoS forum is nice and tidy now