Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Poni_Boy]

I'm definitely taking the kids to Monsters U. I liked the first one alot, and I like the approach they've taken with this one.

Also WWZ has me intrigued. I'm a sucker for zombie flicks. I mean honestly, who doesn't like zombies?

I'll be taking the kids to see it too (no choice really hah). I personally thought it was on the same level of Cars 2

WWZ has me very intrigued. Two people whose opinions I respect have seen it and thought it was a hella fun summer movie. I wasn't much of a fan of the book so I'm all for the changes they made. Hoping for the best

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Probably not seeing WWZ, but will definitely be seeing Monsters U. It is Pixar after all.

 

[rayc1971]

Random question: Why are people adding the grosses from promotional tie-ins to the box office gross? Doesn't that just negate the marketing budget that has been spent on this film?

I no people are throwing that money in the box office grosses because they are afraid man of steel is not gonna make enough money.why don't they throw tha promo tie-in money with ironman 3 or other blocbusters?they need to chill because it will make enough for a sequel im thinking 300mill domestic is enough

 

[Poni_Boy]

My only theory is that WB wants not only a DCU franchise but a Pacific Rim. They knew MoS was a much easier sell so they gave the movie that needed the most help the better date.

Oh yeah they definitely want that. But when it comes down to it putting any superhero film against a Pixar one is a bad idea. Pacific Rim is SUCH a gamble and if MU stops MOS from hitting the mark financially then they just cost themselves two franchises. I would have preferred MOS in July to lock in that 300 mil

 

[sf2]

Here is how I think the movies will do:


WWZ- Anywhere from good to okay (I'm very unsure about it)

White House Down - It will do okay

Pacific Rim - I think this will flop and become this years John Carter

Wolverine - This movie can range anywhere depending on how its promoted

I have seen all these trailers. None of them have got my interest in. N I thought the 1st wolverine movie sucks. N I dont understand why does he need a japanese sword?

 

[Liam_H]

Oh yeah they definitely want that. But when it comes down to it putting any superhero film against a Pixar one is a bad idea. Pacific Rim is SUCH a gamble and if MU stops MOS from hitting the mark financially then they just cost themselves two franchises. I would have preferred MOS in July to lock in that 300 mil

I believe $250 million domestic was always the benchmark for success, but with this OW it should get to $300 million if not pretty close. Which would be the same thing effectively.

If Pacific Rim was released this weekend instead of MoS I feel like it would get buried the next two weeks by competition. Right now I feel very little buzz for that movie.

 

[Pickle-El]

Oh absolutely. Monsters U will be a dynamo as will DM2. Those will easily be at the top of the year's biggest earners.

Which begs the question why WB put MOS in June one week before a Pixar movie and gave it's best spot to Pacific Rim.

It will break June records handidly, is having stellar takes in places like SE Asia and the UK...not to mention it had monster tie-ins...so the doom and gloom predictions?

If anything, Monsters and DM2 will eat into each other as they target the exact same audience.

 

[Pickle-El]

My only theory is that WB wants not only a DCU franchise but a Pacific Rim. They knew MoS was a much easier sell so they gave the movie that needed the most help the better date.

Ding.Ding.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Personally I don't see much buzz for it building even before release. It's Transformers/Battleship meets Clash of the Titans. And even though WOM from the press side is very strong after the newly invigorated critics VS general audience spectacle, solid press reactions won't help PR by much.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It will break June records handidly, is having stellar takes in places like SE Asia and the UK...not to mention it had monster tie-ins...so the doom and gloom predictions?

If anything, Monsters and DM2 will eat into each other as they target the exact same audience.

While this is true, there is definitely crossover in the family department for MoS as well.

Personally I don't see much buzz for it building even before release. It's Transformers/Battleship meets Clash of the Titans. And even though WOM from the press side is very strong after the newly invigorated critics VS general audience spectacle, solid press reactions won't help PR by much.

My brother and I are very hyped. We love GDT. My mother and sister will being seeing it for Jax. Many from the crowd reacted well to the trailer during my MoS screening. But yeah, I haven't seen a real ground swell from general audiences. Most definitely a gamble, one that will probably hurt MoS. The only question is how much. Hopefully this very good start will make up for it.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It will break June records handidly, is having stellar takes in places like SE Asia and the UK...not to mention it had monster tie-ins...so the doom and gloom predictions?

If anything, Monsters and DM2 will eat into each other as they target the exact same audience.

I don't see it as doom/gloom I see it as realistic expectations. Opening weekend grosses are attributed to successful marketing, not WOM. the follow up weekend is where you see if a movie has legs. Putting MOS a week before a Pixar movie is bad business no matter how you look at it. I really hope it doesn't affect it by much, but that won't happen. Again, just realistic expectations.

MU and DM2 will definitely hurt each other but at least there's tw weeks of breathing room between them.

 

[flickchick85]

I really, really want to be hyped for Pacific Rim. But every single thing I see from it underwhelms me. I think I just prefer Guillermo on a smaller scale, working with practical FX/make-up/costumes. Kind of like Tarsem (though GDT is better on the whole than him). I feel like the reliance on CGI in Immortals effectively ruined what made Tarsem's visual style so special, and that's the same sense I'm getting from the PR footage.

 

[Poni_Boy]

My brother and I are very hyped. We love GDT. My mother and sister will being seeing it for Jax. Many from the crowd reacted well to the trailer during my MoS screening. But yeah, I haven't seen a real ground swell from general audiences. Most definitely a gamble, one that will probably hurt MoS. The only question is how much. Hopefully this very good start will make up for it.

It's genre movie through and through. There IS a fanbase for it but most people don't know who GDT is. And if they don't find a way to market a unique quality to it, it'll look like just *another* CG slugfest akin to Battleship/Transformer/etc. Any other summer I wouldn't feel so hesitant over it but after After Earth and Oblivion didn't work domestically, and considering the possibility of another critics vs GA argument, I just.. don't know. I still think putting MOS in July would have been the safer bet.

 

[NADALWON]

I'll be taking the kids to see it too (no choice really hah). I personally thought it was on the same level of Cars 2

WWZ has me very intrigued. Two people whose opinions I respect have seen it and thought it was a hella fun summer movie. I wasn't much of a fan of the book so I'm all for the changes they made. Hoping for the best

Zombies intrigue you?

 

[flickchick85]

It's genre movie through and through. There IS a fanbase for it but most people don't know who GDT is. And if they don't find a way to market a unique quality to it, it'll look like just *another* CG slugfest akin to Battleship/Transformer/etc.

For my second viewing of MoS, I went with my mom, and when the PR trailer came on, she actually asked me if it was the new Transformers movie. And she could not figure out why I was so offended after I corrected her, lol. So yeah, I think that's exactly what those unfamiliar with GDT think it looks like.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Zombies intrigue you?

A new-ish take on them, sure. I'm really tired of TWD after three seasons and after all the company's shortsightedness I won't be sticking around for more. I'm not against going against the grain for any genre tropes as long as it has purpose. The angle they're using for the zombies in WWZ is one I'm intrigued by. If it was the same, shuffling, moaning stuff from TWD.. not so much.

 

[Pickle-El]

I don't see it as doom/gloom I see it as realistic expectations. Opening weekend grosses are attributed to successful marketing, not WOM. the follow up weekend is where you see if a movie has legs. Putting MOS a week before a Pixar movie is bad business no matter how you look at it. I really hope it doesn't affect it by much, but that won't happen. Again, just realistic expectations.

MU and DM2 will definitely hurt each other but at least there's tw weeks of breathing room between them.

We're in the summer season now. Which, accounts for stronger weekday boxoffice. That needs to be taken into account as well.

IM3 and its huge opening weekend has a 2.35 multiplier...still did 400 with not so great weekdays. If MOS has a similar multiplier, you are looking at 300 million.

It's simple math. Even a 60% drop next week isn't the end of the world, and you are looking at damn near 300 million on the nose with a 125 million dollar opening this weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's genre movie through and through. There IS a fanbase for it but most people don't know who GDT is. And if they don't find a way to market a unique quality to it, it'll look like just *another* CG slugfest akin to Battleship/Transformer/etc. Any other summer I wouldn't feel so hesitant over it but after After Earth and Oblivion didn't work domestically, and considering the possibility of another critics vs GA argument, I just.. don't know. I still think putting MOS in July would have been the safer bet.

It would have definitely been the safer bet. They didn't go with safe.

We're in the summer season now. Which, accounts for stronger weekday boxoffice. That needs to be taken into account as well.

IM3 and its huge opening weekend has a 2.35 multiplier...still did 400 with not so great weekdays. If MOS has a similar multiplier, you are looking at 300 million.

It's simple math. Even a 60% drop next week isn't the end of the world, and you are looking at damn near 300 million on the nose with a 125 million dollar opening this weekend.

It still has to happen first. Nothing is guaranteed.

 

[Poni_Boy]

We're in the summer season now. Which, accounts for stronger weekday boxoffice. That needs to be taken into account as well.

IM3 and its huge opening weekend has a 2.35 multiplier...still did 400 with not so great weekdays. If MOS has a similar multiplier, you are looking at 300 million.

It's simple math. Even a 60% drop next week isn't the end of the world, and you are looking at damn near 300 million on the nose with a 125 million dollar opening this weekend.

And if that happens GREAT. This movie NEED it. I'm not trying to predict what will happen rather than trying to understand why WB would hedge their bets the way they did. Would be a kick in the head if MOS didn't hit their target number because of a Pixar movie that they very well knew would hurt it.

But the Walmart pre-sale thing was a stroke of genius from the WB marketing dept. Sucks for Walmart but ohhhh well

 

[Liam_H]

I really hope it makes to $111 million for the 3 days then we won't have the whole Wal-Mart issue when it comes to the June record.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

And if that happens GREAT. This movie NEED it. I'm not trying to predict what will happen rather than trying to understand why WB would hedge their bets the way they did. Would be a kick in the head if MOS didn't hit their target number because of a Pixar movie that they very well knew would hurt it.

But the Walmart pre-sale thing was a stroke of genius from the WB marketing dept. Sucks for Walmart but ohhhh well

They got their advertising out of it. But to be honest, their little ads before the film, outside of Henry's intro, pissed me off more then anything.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Eh. I'm not one to care about records. After they started limited theatrical runs from months to weeks and now they do re-releases a few months after some movies leave theaters it doesn't make sense to me.

But I give major kudos to whoever thought up the Walmart thing. Money in the hand, babe

 

[Liam_H]

I'm a fan of box office in general so if it crosses because of Wal-Mart it'll always be in the back of my mind.

 

[113]

There's a Pixar moving coming out? ...who knew

 

[Poni_Boy]

Everyone who has kids. And loves Pixar movies.