Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[UrNuts2]

yeah, i don't see less than 200m domestic after next Sunday, so i'll eat my neighbor's car if it doesn't do 300m by the end of its run .. more interested to see the the international figures as they stack up vs the domestic numbers over the next 2-3 weeks ..

 

[Liam_H]

I would love it if Sunday actually increased over Saturday or matches it. That's a hell of a Father's Day boost.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Indeed. That would be damn good news.

 

[Marvin]

I would love it if Sunday actually increased over Saturday or matches it. That's a hell of a Father's Day boost.

It will.
And it will be due in part to word of mouth.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Yay WOM!

 

[titansupes]

Yay WOM!

Haha, that made me 'lol'. t:

 

[Project862006]

well according to deadline

Sunday matinees are running +18% of Saturdays which is highly unusual. But apparently Father’s Day and Man Of Steel “make a great combo” a Warner Bros exec says.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Didn't they say it dropped 18% yesterday?

 

[Mace Dolex]

Looks like it did good this weekend, I hope despite some mixed reviews that a sequel gets on the way since I have faith that Snyder, Nolan and co. can only improve from here.

 

[psylockolussus]

Yay WOM!

Yeah word of mouth is definitely gonna help the film.... lol.

 

[Liam_H]

Didn't they say it dropped 18% yesterday?

As a whole day yes. The up 18% from matinees could be a bit misleading since we don't know yet how the evening shows are going to do.

 

[Iceman]

Now that I've seen it, this film needed another edit. The ingredients of best possible Superman for someone like me are all there along with some crap that shouldn't be. If those things were tweaked the reviews would have been on side and the word of mouth would have been universally good & this could have done something quite crazy. Should still do really well & every dollar counts towards the future of MoS, DC, WF, JL etc.

 

[Marvin]

Now that I've seen it, this film needed another edit. The ingredients of best possible Superman for someone like me are all there along with some crap that shouldn't be. If those things were tweaked the reviews would have been on side and the word of mouth would have been universally good & this could have done something quite crazy. Should still do really well & every dollar counts towards the future of MoS, DC, WF, JL etc.

doubt it.

 

[ElDuderino]

Didn't they say it dropped 18% yesterday?

As a whole day yes. The up 18% from matinees could be a bit misleading since we don't know yet how the evening shows are going to do.

That was the drop from Friday to Saturday. They're now saying there was an increase for matinees from Saturday to Sunday.

 

[Asgard]

Makes sense.

Dads taking their kids to watch MOS and vice versa.

 

[Liam_H]

That was the drop from Friday to Saturday. They're now saying there was an increase for matinees from Saturday to Sunday.

Isn't that what I said?

 

[Andreth]

I'm so nervous about the film's performance. A sequel is at stake here.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

So by tomorrow it will have earned closely to $200 mil overall? Doesn't sound bad to me, and I think the domestic OW is decent if not a hit.

 

[Asgard]

Wasnt a sequel guaranteed by WB? I thought I read that somewhere.

 

[Superark]

Seems like a sequel is all but guaranteed. It's always been my feeling that if this movie made $250 million, we were going to see a sequel.

I'm still unsure this film will do $300 million. I feel like there will be a big drop for this film in the upcoming weeks.

 

[TheScarecrow]

Whatever number it ends up with, multiply that by 1.5x if they had marketed it well.. instead of ignoring most of the OS markets...

I'm from Australia and it got more advertising than most movies over here. Certainly far more than Nolan's Batman films.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

I would love it if Sunday actually increased over Saturday or matches it. That's a hell of a Father's Day boost.

I mentioned in a post a few pages back that the crowds looked unusually huge this morning, and early showings were selling out at the theatre I saw it at in Los Angeles. I speculated that perhaps when the official figures come out tomorrow MOS will get revised up. Pickle-El posted that Deadline.com had something about a WB spokesperson/exec saying that Sunday matinees are up 18% over Saturday which is highly unusual. I think WB would rather give low provisional #'s and revise it up come Monday, rather than being too optimistic, and then suffering the embarrassment of having to drop the total a few million. Are there any instances of a film making more on a Sunday than on a Saturday? Any of SHH's BO amatuer analysts want to weigh in on this? One more thing. It could be genius planning on WB's part to release MOS this weekend, or just a serendipitous stroke of fortune from all the good tentpole spots being spoken for after WB pushed it from its original December 2012 release date. If MOS has a good hold next weekend, and a similar drop the following weekend due to excellent WOM, I could definitely see a scenario where for the 4th of July weekend, it actually gets a bump.

 

[CB Fan]

But here’s the rub: the five-day Wed-Sun debut of Superman Returns, which was $83 million back in July, 2006, would be around $103 million today adjusted for inflation and about $118 million adjusted for a normal 3D/IMAX bump. As such, the much-anticipated, heavily-marketed, etc. etc. Man Of Steel sold 14.2 million tickets, or just a bit more than the 12.9 million tickets that Superman Returns sold in its official Wed-Sun debut weekend. So what seems like a massive improvement on its face is partially merely seven years of inflation and the aforementioned 3D/IMAX advantage. Truth be told, it’s not a slam on Man Of Steel (because a $125 million debut is an unmitigated triumph for pretty much anything outside of a The Avengers 2 or Avatar 2) but just reinforces that Superman Returns, which earned $200 million domestic and $395 million worldwide, wasn’t so much a bomb as a massively over-budgeted tent-pole which couldn’t deliver record-breaking numbers to justify its $270 million budget.

Found this to be interesting in regards to Man of Steels opening vs Superman Return's (its from Forbes).

Overall I'm very satisfied with these numbers the movie was great and the crowd loved it here.

 

[TheScarecrow]

I think the problem with SR was more the fact that it never really inspired anyone to take Superman further.

It made money but no impact, which never bode well for a Superman sequel. Begins made similar money to SR (albeit on a far smaller budget) but generated momentum for Batman that SR never did for Superman. MOS seems to be creating momentum for Superman.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

Found this to be interesting in regards to Man of Steels opening vs Superman Return's.

But MOS had to deal with the foul taste that SR left behind. I know people that were put off seeing this because of SR and I had to tell them this has nothing to do with it. It was Hulk vs TIH effect all over again. Had this movie been released when SR was released or with no SR ever in existence it would have done even better.