Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tra-El]

is the WOM really overwhelmingly positive?

Honestly most people I know saw it but said they were disappointed. I know that theyre are people who liked it clearly even in the GA.

.. but I honestly dont know where people are getting that the WOM is very positive.

That being said I dont understand why the GA wont like this. I mean imo it's like a better made Transformers. It has a sh** ton of action, based on a well known characters. I didnt like this that much but Im surprised when people in the GA say they dont

That's the thing, you can only go by your OWN experience with WOM & fan ratings on popular communities you frequent over the net (tons of sites have Man of Steel highly ranked with a positive A; B overall scores) and givin' where I come from, not only did I have huge crowds that applauded at movies end (I saw MOS 5 times, each time a positive reaction) but all of the people I was with or I have talked to through Facebook and what-not have liked it.

Not EVERYBODY is going to think it's awesome and spectacular and score a perfect rating. Disappointment is inevitable. Superman is a character put on a high pedestal but judging from my own experiences and seeing high ratings with the fans in polls and what not, the WOM has been excellent in my neck of the woods.

 

[robot]

Obviously competition cut into MoS second weekend but for all the talk of good/great WOM, it wasn't strong enough to give it a better hold. I hope it stabilizes after this weekend to cross $300 million domestic still.

There's a missing variable here.. it's not just WOM and Competition for ticket sales... but rather, for screen space... a lot of areas they have single 'theaters' or very few screens, and they may have dropped MOS altogether from their showing.. so, even people who would have wanted to watch it wouldn't have the choice...

This happened to Avatar too... it was doing really, really well in many markets forrever and didn't seem to drop off at all.. until they pull a lot of screens out from under it to take in Alice in Wonderland (especially ALL the 3D and Imax screens), same with china, it was suddenly pulled off all cinemas... else it would have easily taken in 3 Billion plus....

Opening in a crowded space, and no matter how good a movie is or how strong WOM, it's bound to lose a LOT of potential income...

 

[Showtime]

The weekend estimates indicate that WOM is not so stellar.

 

[marcvader]

I went with 4 other people and they were underwhelmed. They all seemed to feel it was just ok. There was some applause at the end in my theater but it was just about 20% doing so.

 

[Liam_H]

There's a missing variable here.. it's not just WOM and Competition for ticket sales... but rather, for screen space... a lot of areas they have single 'theaters' or very few screens, and they may have dropped MOS altogether from their showing.. so, even people who would have wanted to watch it wouldn't have the choice...

I don't buy that, especially during the 2nd weekend. MoS should've retained a good deal of its screen count, they will adjust accordingly because demand is obviously going to be half of the opening weekend. If people really did want to see MoS then it would be selling out more of its screenings.

 

[Tra-El]

The way I see it, MOS made bank and will continue to have an overall impressive WW number, probably somewhere in-between 700-800 million respectively.

The sequel is all but a lock and a wider, more broader universe is going to take-shape more than likely after an established sequel.

MOS did what it was intended to do. The numbers will take care of itself and 'tis what it 'tis. I still don't understand why people get so caught up in the bragging rights section.

MOS did a huge BO OW, set a June record and already obliterated Superman Returns in numbers already and it should be a big number overseas to where it has yet to release in some countries.

I'm not worried in the slightest, it's a huge success from what I can see. People just want to bite off more than what they can chew and freak out over drops 2 weeks into its release. Everything is going to be FINE. Heh.

 

[Ultimatehero]

We opened the same as IM2, more if I remember correctly, we're bringing in about the same in the second weekend. And IM2 was a sequel to a MASSIVE hit first film. So, for a first film to do this well IS relatively unheard of no matter how some people want to negatively spin it.

I mean, seeing those numbers being the same in its first week. Am I the only one not surprised that they're about the same in the second? And box office wise, if I recall correctly, IM 3 over IM2 over IM1. all sequels do that generally speaking. Thus, to have this as a first film's number being comparable to the number of the second film to a highly popular franchise - how is this a bad thing?

 

[MadVillainy]

TO me, and I know people are tired of hearing about these movies in terms of CBMS, TDK and Avengers are 2 movies that had overwhelming positive WOM or hell even the first Iron Man.

 

[Tony Stark]

Almost everyone I talk to, said the movie was OK, not great, including a lot of people that I thought would really like the film.

Now I don't think this movie should be punished for not making 60M this weekend. You can thank Deadline and their horrible gossip prediction model for that. They take any line of BS from the studio and run with it.

However this film should have made 45M this weekend and that's allowing a 65% drop including the Wal-Mart numbers. right now I think 45 is a best case scenario if it has a massive recovery today.

One thing for sure, the drop on Thursday may have had something to do with game 7, but people weren't flocking back to see it the next day, the way some people were saying it would.

Also I go back to all the people that were saying that WWZ would flop. There was never any evidence of that, in fact quite the opposite.

 

[Tony Stark]

We opened the same as IM2, more if I remember correctly, we're bringing in about the same in the second weekend. And IM2 was a sequel to a MASSIVE hit first film. So, for a first film to do this well IS relatively unheard of no matter how some people want to negatively spin it.

I mean, seeing those numbers being the same in its first week. Am I the only one not surprised that they're about the same in the second? And box office wise, if I recall correctly, IM 3 over IM2 over IM1. all sequels do that generally speaking. Thus, to have this as a first film's number being comparable to the number of the second film to a highly popular franchise - how is this a bad thing?

Not correct, IM2 made 52M it's second weekend.

 

[Ultimatehero]

WWZ is gonna flop no matter what it makes - look at it's balooning budget. THAT is why it's going to flop. It would need to perform like a top top blockbuster to not be disappointing. If not for its budget inflating dramatically, it would have been a success. Last I heard the budget was around 300 Or something.

 

[BH/HHH]

WWZ is gonna flop no matter what it makes - look at it's balooning budget. THAT is why it's going to flop. It would need to perform like a top top blockbuster to not be disappointing. If not for its budget inflating dramatically, it would have been a success. Last I heard the budget was around 300 Or something.

It was 300 mill?

 

[Ultimatehero]

I'm looking at the BOM numbers right now. IM2 dropped 70.5% on it's 2nd Friday. MoS dropped 71.1%.

This.

 

[Ultimatehero]

It was 300 mill?

I don't know exact, but the budget is HIGH. It could be a little less or a little more, but know it was around there. Over inflated when it wasn't supposed to. So it would have been a success if it wasn't for that. And at this point, with that inflation the studio is at best hoping to break even. I might say sequels might even be possible if it could have been a success otherwise to make back the rest of its money. It is not in a good position at all though due to budget.

 

[Kevin Smith]

I will be surprised if MOS makes it to 250 domestically. WOM is that bad on it. Makes me sad.

 

[Liam_H]

Lol it'll approach $250 million domestic next weekend.

 

[MadVillainy]

I heard WWZ budget is 200+ mill

 

[BH/HHH]

I don't know exact, but the budget is HIGH. It could be a little less or a little more, but know it was around there. Over inflated when it wasn't supposed to. So it would have been a success if it wasn't for that. And at this point, with that inflation the studio is at best hoping to break even. I might say sequels might even be possible if it could have been a success otherwise to make back the rest of its money. It is not in a good position at all though due to budget.

Bloody hell that's way too much to spend on a film like WWZ

 

[Kryptonian Titan]

I will be surprised if MOS makes it to 250 domestically. WOM is that bad on it. Makes me sad.

It will certainly do more than that. How much, I don't know.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

45-51 million is very good. That should put MOS at 220-230 million domestically by the end of this weekend.

 

[chiefchirpa]

We opened the same as IM2, more if I remember correctly, we're bringing in about the same in the second weekend. And IM2 was a sequel to a MASSIVE hit first film. So, for a first film to do this well IS relatively unheard of no matter how some people want to negatively spin it.

Man of Steel is not a "first" film. Iron Man is a first film. Man of Steel is a rethread film, just like Casino Royale or Abrams Star Trek. Do you know why Man of Steel opened in a stellar fashion (and I hope that will still continue) that's because most people old and young are already familiar with Superman from Donner film to Smallville. Meanwhile 95% people have zero knowledge of Iron Man/Tony Stark in the 1st film.

 

[Kevin Smith]

It will certainly do more than that. How much, I don't know.

You really think?

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Way too much overreaction/panic here. This is not WOM talking (evidence is good/OK) but competition.

Monsters University and World War Z took away both of its core audiences; families and men. The latter did so way much more than I anticipated but it will be quite front-loaded and I expect Man of Steel to stabilize today and tomorrow. Still thinking the estimates/actuals increase to more along the lines of $45M. We'll see.

WB got exactly what they wanted. Huge US opening, big overseas grosses and a new franchise to keep em going post Batman/Harry Potter. It will still crack $300M. Chill.

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I will be surprised if MOS makes it to 250 domestically. WOM is that bad on it. Makes me sad.

The negativity and pessimism is strong with you young one.

 

[restlessdreams]

http://movies.yahoo.com/news/box-office-brad-pitts-world-war-z-stunning-153202518.html

Last week's No. 1 movie, "Man of Steel," brought in $12.4 million from a market-high 4,207 theaters Friday, and is looking at a three-day total in the $40 million range. That's a steep 71 percent drop from last week for the Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures' Superman sequel, which has taken in $181 million domestically in just over a week.

Not good at all.