Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]459739[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]459313[/split]

 

[Street Vendor]

Found this to be interesting in regards to Man of Steels opening vs Superman Return's (its from Forbes).

Overall I'm very satisfied with these numbers the movie was great and the crowd loved it here.

The only problem with the Forbes article is that it assumes that SR wasn't heavily marketed, and it was. Also, a five day gross isn't comparable to a weekend, I don't care how you crunch the numbers.

 

[Bruce Malone]

On another site Returns OW from 2006 was adjusted through modern inflation and 3D and Imax tickets as well and it would have made about $85m or so in present figures but that's opening mid-week as well.

I think returns opening was actually quite decent it's just that it fell off with WOM.

 

[sheltz32tt]

this movie should easily hit 600 million. Probably closer to 700million when all is done.

 

[sf2]

so is the opening week great? top 2 of the year?

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Can't wait to see the actuals tomorrow afternoon.

 

[Liam_H]

Possible Sunday estimate.... $35-37 million. In other words, INCREASE. Looks like its going to be the highest OW for superhero origin that SM still has more than a decade ago.

 

[dnno1]

Assuming the actuals hold up this was a good performance. While people are somewhat befuddled by the Wal-Mart numbers, (it's hilarious to read the box office forums and hear people arguing over this) ultimately this is good enough to warrant the sequel and move forward.

What is more concerning is if this did well enough that Goyer and Snyder will be rewarded going forward. I really hope these two are removed from all future DC projects. I think WB has a good foundation here moving forward, but all bets are off if they bring Goyer back.

You've got to be kidding. Goyer and Snyder are a part of the very few people in the business who know how to make comic book movies the way fans like them. Anybody else is probably working for Marvel. That's just ridiculous to think that you could just get anyone to write a big block buster when you have some folks who have produced Nearly $4 billion in comic book films combined.

 

[jsi23]

Possible Sunday estimate.... $35-37 million. In other words, INCREASE. Looks like its going to be the highest OW for superhero origin that SM still has more than a decade ago.

Went to the movies for Sunday to see the Purge (which was mediocre by the way) and that film was about 70% full. Once the movie was over I peaked in MOS and it was packed. I think many people went out of there way to see MOS for Fathers Day. I also have younger family members who went to the movies for Sunday because there is no school on Monday. Between word-of-mouth and the circumstance of the Sunday it is all working out in MOS favor.

 

[dnno1]

The only problem with the Forbes article is that it assumes that SR wasn't heavily marketed, and it was. Also, a five day gross isn't comparable to a weekend, I don't care how you crunch the numbers.

You can compare the two because the early opening was still not very large (besides if you looked at just the 3 day opening it would have been much lower for SR). The real point of the Forbes article was that "Superman Returns" was "a massively over-budgeted tent-pole which couldn’t deliver record-breaking numbers to justify its $270 million budget", and that's why it turned out to be a disappointment.

 

[TheFlamingCoco]

You've got to be kidding. Goyer and Snyder are a part of the very few people in the business who know how to make comic book movies the way fans like them. Anybody else is probably working for Marvel. That's just ridiculous to think that you could just get anyone to write a big block buster when you have some folks who have produced Nearly $4 billion in comic book films combined.

Yeah, though if the better DCAU writers wrote some of the movies we could get something that could surpass the TDK trilogy. Keep Snyder though, for all my relatively minor nitpicks on MOS, the reverence he gives to the genre in imagery is unparalleled, IMHO. If Nolan (and I like Nolan) directed MOS, we'd have a more recognizable actress as Faora, instead of Antje. And I love her performance in this movie. She has such screen presence and can hold her own, even with Russell Crowe, and an angry cavill in the same room

Also, we'd have some IMPRESSIVE wirework, but relatively little superspeed. And I think MOS is emotionally warmer than at least two/3 of the Batflicks (possibly even Begins). The ending sequence made me cry.

 

[sf2]

You can compare the two because the early opening was still not very large (besides if you looked at just the 3 day opening it would have been much lower for SR). The real point of the Forbes article was that "Superman Returns" was "a massively over-budgeted tent-pole which couldn’t deliver record-breaking numbers to justify its $270 million budget", and that's why it turned out to be a disappointment.

SR budget isn't $270M!!! they lumped in the expenses of the earlier failed attempts into SR!!! and that's unfair!!!
SR, if not mistaken, the budget is $210M.

 

[Marvin]

Went to the movies for Sunday to see the Purge (which was mediocre by the way) and that film was about 70% full. Once the movie was over I peaked in MOS and it was packed. I think many people went out of there way to see MOS for Fathers Day. I also have younger family members who went to the movies for Sunday because there is no school on Monday. Between word-of-mouth and the circumstance of the Sunday it is all working out in MOS favor.

Like with IM and Spidey and even TF, by sunday people are talking and talking about the new cinema they witnessed. Unlike those films however this is some word of mouth fueling controversy at the end there and the clark kent stinger is pretty good for exit discussions too, should carry into water cooler talk during the week.

I'm just curious if it will get any news coverage, that's probably reaching but that would work wonders.
Nothing quite like Bill O'riely, asking "is superman too violent?" for numbers.

 

[jsi23]

Like with IM and Spidey and even TF, by sunday people are talking and talking about the new cinema they witnessed. Unlike those films however this is some word of mouth fueling controversy at the end there and the clark kent stinger is pretty good for exit discussions too, should carry into water cooler talk during the week.

I'm just curious if it will get any news coverage, that's probably reaching but that would work wonders.
Nothing quite like Bill O'riely, asking "is superman too violent?" for numbers.

Ironically when I was going to see The Purge they were announcing box office numbers on the radio for Man of Steel (and This Is The End) saying how it broke a record. I thought they weren't suppose to talk about this stuff until Monday.

 

[Astrodust]

SR budget isn't $270M!!! they lumped in the expenses of the earlier failed attempts into SR!!! and that's unfair!!!
SR, if not mistaken, the budget is $210M.

The problem(one of many) is that the budget for SR didn't really transfer to the screen. I spoke with a couple of friends tonight that couldn't remember if they watched it or not. I kept asking them things and nothing rung a bell.

 

[dnno1]

SR budget isn't $270M!!! they lumped in the expenses of the earlier failed attempts into SR!!! and that's unfair!!!
SR, if not mistaken, the budget is $210M.

That's all under the franchise. I am sure that all the spec scripts and treatments that were written between "Superman Returns" and "Man of Steel" were lumped into the budget of the latter film as well. That's just the way it works. Somebody has to pay for that and it generally comes out of the franchise budget. The fact remains that even though "Superman Returns" grossed $391 million, the expectation from the studio was for the film to take in $500 million, and it did not do that (note that "Batman Begins" grossed less yet, on a $150 million production budget, it got a sequel). That is also why they did not seek a sequel to that film. It just did not produce the kind of revenue they wanted for the money spent.

One other thing that is not being factored in is the revenue that Man of Steel is getting from its promotional partners ($160 million). That would actually put the total gross at $356 million right now.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I thought the gross from promotional partners was $170 million?

 

[sf2]

That's all under the franchise. I am sure that all the spec scripts and treatments that were written between "Superman Returns" and "Man of Steel" were lumped into the budget of the latter film as well. That's just the way it works. Somebody has to pay for that and it generally comes out of the franchise budget. The fact remains that even though "Superman Returns" grossed $391 million, the expectation from the studio was for the film to take in $500 million, and it did not do that (note that "Batman Begins" grossed less yet, on a $150 million production budget, it got a sequel). That is also why they did not seek a sequel to that film. It just did not produce the kind of revenue they wanted for the money spent.

One other thing that is not being factored in is the revenue that Man of Steel is getting from its promotional partners ($160 million). That would actually put the total gross at $356 million right now.

anyway, that's totally unfair to SR. how could they lump in the paycheck of Nicolas Cage and Tim Burton into SR account!!!

and i think the main reason they didn't do SR sequel is because the story has leaded itself into a bottleneck.

 

[dnno1]

anyway, that's totally unfair to SR. how could they lump in the paycheck of Nicolas Cage and Tim Burton into SR account!!!

and i think the main reason they didn't do SR sequel is because the story has leaded itself into a bottleneck.

Who's account did you want them to lump it into? They lost money on those attempts and they tried to get their money back on the next film, which happened to be "Superman Returns" (if that film were never made, I am sure that they would have lumped it on to "Man of Steel"). That is why they expected to make $500 million on it (because there was more than $270 million sunk into that film). They didn't do that and that is why it got no sequel.

 

[dnno1]

I thought the gross from promotional partners was $170 million?

It depends on what source you got your numbers from. I got $160 million from a piece from Advertising Age Magazine.

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

The only problem with the Forbes article is that it assumes that SR wasn't heavily marketed, and it was. Also, a five day gross isn't comparable to a weekend, I don't care how you crunch the numbers.

Yeah, that article seemed to be based on some questionable arithmetic leading to a dodgy conclusion. lol!

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I was going by THR's article. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/warner-bros-man-steel-nabs-562225

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Also, we'd have some IMPRESSIVE wirework, but relatively little superspeed. And I think MOS is emotionally warmer than at least two/3 of the Batflicks (possibly even Begins). The ending sequence made me cry.

Oh, get a grip, you big baby!!! Okay I admit it, I nearly cried during the tornado sequence.I definitely teared up.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

The ending montage was powerful. I legit cried.