Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[MydnightPhoenix]

Did they over estimate OW with SR? I know everyone is talking about these new movies comin out but for me it is still all about is it doing better than the movie it essentially replaced. BTW someone mentioned China, is that really a good market for films to make money.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I'm not sure. I know they still consider SR a success, but, to WB, it needed to make $500 million in order to be consider a blockbuster and green light a sequel.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I've been **** at boxoffice predictions but I'm predicting 40-48mil for WWZ and like 70-75mil for Monsters University. Monsters Inc isn't Toy Story so I don't see it's prequel pulling in some record numbers. Again, I could be wrong but I don't see this huge buzz for WWZ some are talking about so that's as high as I go. I see MOS dropping 55-63% which is standard for big openers even if they have good word of mouth. Lower than 55% is rare for over 100mil openers especially when one is facing two big films.

I'm open to changing my mind about WWZ if I get some tracking numbers pointing to a break out. Hell, I raised my MOS prediction to 115mil after the buzz got so big.

I like to give props to the posters who always predicted over 100mil opening weekend. As ya'll know I was not one of those posters.

 

[titansupes]

One thing that would annoy me is MU taking the June record away from MoS. Is that possible? Are there any tracking numbers for that and WWZ yet?

 

[kedrell]

What the hell, I'll throw out a guess.

MU: 80M
WWZ: 50M
MoS: 45M

 

[TheNextNolan22]

One thing that would annoy me is MU taking the June record away from MoS. Is that possible? Are there any tracking numbers for that and WWZ yet?

Highly doubt it. It's a prequel to a well-loved Pixar movie, but since many people have been down on Pixar lately with their last two efforts, I don't see it making Toy Story 3 numbers.

 

[Liam_H]

ASM3 will probably take the June record.

 

[kedrell]

As long as they open it on a Friday.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

If they open it on a Friday, maybe.

 

[Liam_H]

I expect that it might move but if it does stay there's no reason to open it on a Wednesday. That's no holiday weekend or anything.

I was wondering why not the 4th of July weekend but then I see Sony rather put Angry Birds there for some reason. Or even the middle of July.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It depends on the reception of TASM 2.

 

[titansupes]

Highly doubt it. It's a prequel to a well-loved Pixar movie, but since many people have been down on Pixar lately with their last two efforts, I don't see it making Toy Story 3 numbers.

I see, didn't know people felt that way about Pixar.

ASM3 will probably take the June record.

The just announced 2016 one? I'll be okay with that, maintaining the record for a few years.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I see, didn't know people felt that way about Pixar.

Well, Cars 2 sucked. And I did think Brave was a step up from that movie and was actually really good, it still wasn't at the quality of previous Pixar movies. That's kind of one of the reasons why there hasn't been any real buzz behind MU.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm gonna throw it out here i think North American's are over spider-man. The franchise is on 3 films in a row now where the sequel or predecessor has made less domestically than the last.

Even with inflation and 3D/Imax ticket costs TASM couldn't come close to matching the take of the Raimi films.

TASM franchise will still do well overseas but i don't see it breaking any domestic records.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I'm gonna throw it out here i think North American's are over spider-man. The franchise is on 3 films in a row now where the sequel or predecessor has made less domestically than the last.

Even with inflation and 3D/Imax ticket costs TASM couldn't come close to matching the take of the Raimi films.

TASM franchise will still do well overseas but i don't see it breaking any domestic records.

I still think it'll do very big numbers here in the states, just not anything record breaking. But time will time.

 

[Liam_H]

I feel like Spider-Man is still Spider-Man. If they make a quality 2nd movie people will still flock to it, especially since its starting next summer off and questionable competition since they are not from established franchises.

 

[schiz0id]

Is it just me or is Man of Steel a reunion of some Battlestar Galactica actors? There's Karl Agathon/Tahmoh Penikett, Saul Tigh/Michael Hogan, Felix Gaeta/Alessandro Juliani to name a few (I only went to one screening as of now so I might've missed Starbuck somewhere LOL). Is this just a coincidence or is someone in the production have BG ties? The reason may also be because some of it is shot in Vancouver so it was easy to cast Canadian actors but then again having three actors from the TV series can't be a complete random accident.

In any case it was frackin' awesome

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm gonna throw it out here i think North American's are over spider-man. The franchise is on 3 films in a row now where the sequel or predecessor has made less domestically than the last.

Even with inflation and 3D/Imax ticket costs TASM couldn't come close to matching the take of the Raimi films.

TASM franchise will still do well overseas but i don't see it breaking any domestic records.

And I also felt like the reboot left a bad taste in people's mouth. I definitely think people wanted it to see SM4 over a reboot. Even if they continue to release the 5th and 6th Amazing Spider-Man in 2020 and 2022, people are still gonna look back at Raimi's films as the better Spidey film series.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Monsters Inc was never as beloved as Toy Story and it's marketing isn't making the prequel look like anything new or special so record numbers would be baffling. I say 80mil tops and I think that is too high. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it did Brave numbers. I think the worst it does is 60mil so it will open big but Toy Story 3 is safe.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Cars 2 and Brave both opened at the mid-60s so maybe the same will happen to MU? I don't know, I say $66 million is respectable. It's gonna be #1 either way.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cars 2 and Brave both opened at the mid-60s so maybe the same will happen to MU? I don't know, I say $66 million is respectable.

Yeah, lately Pixar openings have pretty much in the mid 60's range. It does have the advantage of being one of the few movies directed towards kids that's out and it's a follow up so 75mil sounds good to me. I'll properly predict MOS after Mon, Tues, Wed numbers.

Unless WWZ over performs big time MU is going to be number 1.

 

[Project862006]

despicable me 2 is the true money maker imo but lucky for us that dont come out till july

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Same. If it continues to hold on, I'll predict MOS to hold on to a strong second place and WWZ opening to a solid third.

 

[sf2]

we just gotta wait and see...
or maybe bring some friends and relatives to boost up MOS during weekends.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

we just gotta wait and see...
or maybe bring some friends and relatives to boost up MOS during weekends.

My sister and I just helped the domestic numbers again. t: