Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Stephen K. Hone]

Big drop. Above normal. Not a good sign. maybe the negative reviews are starting to kick-in.

Normally Wednesday kicks up a bit especially in first few weeks of a release.

Guru lowered her end of weekend prediction a bit.

I think it was premature of her to say it could reach 325 million.

I expect a huge drop this weekend. Like 62% for a total weekend of 44 million.

That said MOS should end up north of 250 domestic and likely close to 275 million in the end. Right in the middle of my 250 - 300 million prediction.

Wait a minute?? Didn't you say you were out of here with your doom and gloom predictions until August because of health issues, or was that someone else? If it was you, I'm beginning to think you are bordering on trollish behaviour. So according to you, MOS makes a little less Wednesday, and you have the B.O. in freefall! How about Monday and Tuesday that were pretty good holds perhaps even better than average? that means nothing? Btw your predictions kept changing like the weather, so anything you think you predicted in the past is sketchy at best with how many times you kept revising them. MOS will likely make $325-350 million possibly more imo.

 

[UrNuts2]

55% isn't the absolute. I feel like closer to 60% is to be expected considering the competition out this weekend.

lets put this in perspective .. the drops from weekend 3 onwards are typically less than week 2 (over the weekends) .. both IM3 & MoS are front loaded and MoS are holding out better than IM3 during its 1st weekday run .. furthermore, if MoS drops as follows, i.e from 49M (weekend 2) to 18m (weekend 3) to 9m (weekend 4) to 6m (weekend 5) to 4m (weekend 6), watch for it to go through 300m domestic by week 7 ..

look for 216 to 218 by Sunday ..

place ur bets .. i'll giv u odds of 5:1 against me if u wanna take that bet

 

[Liam_H]

I already believe it'll cross $300M domestic. I haven't worked out when yet but I believe it will happen.

IM3 being more frontloaded than MoS is expected.

 

[Tobias]

Wait a minute?? Didn't you say you were out of here with your doom and gloom predictions until August because of health issues, or was that someone else? If it was you, I'm beginning to think you are bordering on trollish behaviour. So according to you, MOS makes a little less Wednesday, and you have the B.O. in freefall! How about Monday and Tuesday that were pretty good holds perhaps even better than average? that means nothing? Btw your predictions kept changing like the weather, so anything you think you predicted in the past is sketchy at best with how many times you kept revising them. MOS will likely make $325-350 million possibly more imo.

If you read my post from yesterday a friend, knowing I didn't want to know, went ahead and told me the BO numbers this weekend. Blowing my attempt to avoid news. Read my post from yesterday.

At least I'm revising them up - the predictions that is.

IMO MOS ends up with 275 domestic and 350 OS. That should be good enough for a sequel or a JL film.

 

[marcvader]

lets put this in perspective .. the drops from weekend 3 onwards are typically less than week 2 (over the weekends) .. both IM3 & MoS are front loaded and MoS are holding out better than IM3 during its 1st weekday run .. furthermore, if MoS drops as follows, i.e from 49M (weekend 2) to 18m (weekend 3) to 9m (weekend 4) to 6m (weekend 5) to 4m (weekend 6), watch for it to go through 300m domestic by week 7 ..

look for 216 to 218 by Sunday ..

place ur bets .. i'll giv u odds of 5:1 against me if u wanna take that bet

Naturally the weekday holds have to be better than IM3, most kids are out of school now.

 

[robot]

Those that laughed and some even plain out ridiculed people who predicted north of 700 million WW have suddenly disappeared.. or, hiding, or quickly revising their numbers up...

Hopefully this is a lesson to not belittle others and respect people's opinions...

 

[robot]

I already believe it'll cross $300M domestic. I haven't worked out when yet but I believe it will happen.

IM3 being more frontloaded than MoS is expected.

300M domestic is a lock... how much more is yet to be seen... personally i think it'll be at least 320 and have a small possibility of even hitting 400M... it does seem like this movie will have a bit of legs (maybe not much, but even a bit will allow it to slowly add up the cash)

 

[UrNuts2]

I already believe it'll cross $300M domestic. I haven't worked out when yet but I believe it will happen.

IM3 being more frontloaded than MoS is expected.

oh i know dude .. was just using ur post above as a point of reference .. we're on the same page ..

 

[MrMaooz]

Money money money money

 

[TheNextNolan22]

At this point, $300 million is a lock. It's how much exactly that remains to be seen.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Money money money money

[YT]fLwDftiDQec[/YT]

 

[Tobias]

lets put this in perspective .. the drops from weekend 3 onwards are typically less than week 2 (over the weekends) .. both IM3 & MoS are front loaded and MoS are holding out better than IM3 during its 1st weekday run .. furthermore, if MoS drops as follows, i.e from 49M (weekend 2) to 18m (weekend 3) to 9m (weekend 4) to 6m (weekend 5) to 4m (weekend 6), watch for it to go through 300m domestic by week 7 ..

look for 216 to 218 by Sunday ..

place ur bets .. i'll giv u odds of 5:1 against me if u wanna take that bet

I think your weekend 3 drop is too big. IMO.

But yes, drops are less after weekend 2. More like 52% - 54% each weekend.

I agree it will be 216 come Sunday so I won't take your bet.

 

[MrMaooz]

[YT]fLwDftiDQec[/YT]

 

[113]

I'll predict $400 million domestic - boom! And as I said before I'm optimistically predicting right around 1 Billion total.

Once Pacific Rim comes out, what other big summer blockbuster is there waiting in the wings? Elysium will be a middle-of-the-road (in terms of numbers) blockbuster. And that doesn't come out until August.

Man of Steel has a rough patch with Monsters U, WWZ (which I actually expect to bomb hard), and then Pacific Rim. But Iron Man 3 had Star Trek, and then 5 weeks later MoS.

I don't buy any "doom and gloom" scenarios. I think despite the competition MoS will continue to pull in good money for the next 6-7 weeks.

It honestly shocks me how well Iron Man 3 did. I just don't see how that happened. MoS may not be a hit with critics, but with CBM viewers and general audiences it's a huge hit.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I still am very optimistic about a $800 million gross.

 

[robot]

I'll predict $400 million domestic - boom! And as I said before I'm optimistically predicting right around 1 Billion total.

Once Pacific Rim comes out, what other big summer blockbuster is there waiting in the wings? Elysium will be a middle-of-the-road (in terms of numbers) blockbuster. And that doesn't come out until August.

Man of Steel has a rough patch with Monsters U, WWZ (which I actually expect to bomb hard), and then Pacific Rim. But Iron Man 3 had Star Trek, and then 5 weeks later MoS.

I don't buy any "doom and gloom" scenarios. I think despite the competition MoS will continue to pull in good money for the next 6-7 weeks.

It honestly shocks me how well Iron Man 3 did. I just don't see how that happened. MoS may not be a hit with critics, but with CBM viewers and general audiences it's a huge hit.

Hahaha.. you and I are probably the only 2 guys here predicting 1 Billion... for me, it's more of a wish than a real prediction, but i am holding on to my Billion...

 

[robot]

I still am very optimistic about a $800 million gross.

You're probably far more accurate.. but I like round numbers.. so 1B for me!!!

 

[UrNuts2]

I think your weekend 3 drop is too big. IMO.

But yes, drops are less after weekend 2. More like 52% - 54% each weekend.

I agree it will be 216 come Sunday so I won't take your bet.

lol .. yeah, i just exaggerated the week 3 drop a bit to make a point .. but even IF, we're lookin' at 300m + regardless .. unless something unprecedented happens

 

[MrMaooz]

3 billion-more than Avatar!

 

[Alex Logan]

It's rated PG 13 in my country same as MOS.

My mistake, you're right. It is PG-13 and that's pretty much a deal breaker for me. The film already had massive things to overcome so I'm waiting for Redbox.

 

[Alex Logan]

IMO MOS ends up with 275 domestic and 350 OS. That should be good enough for a sequel or a JL film.

That's way too low, it will be around 170 by Friday.

 

[dnno1]

Not so sure studios care about inflation as much as you would think.
Higher ticket prices means less people buying tickets on principle alone. If they raised the price to 50 bucks a ticket and the film still drew a crowd that's saying something lol.

Higher ticket prices may not necessarily mean less people buying tickets. There are a lot of other factors to take into consideration as well. In the entire entertainment scheme of things, the ticket price at the movie theater is the cheapest form of entertainment around. If you look at it in context of other events (concerts, amusement parks, sporting events, et. al.) you could raise the price to maybe $20 (per person $50 might be outrageous and impractical) and it would still be competitive.

 

[robot]

3 billion-more than Avatar!

It took 12 years to break Titanic's record.. and even then it took the same director James Cameron with Titanic... and he doesn't just break it, he shatters it... and even now, the biggest CMB of all time doesn't even come close to Titanic (if you count inflation)..

So, to break avatar, it might take another 10-15 years and maybe James Cameron again!!!!

 

[Alex Logan]

I'll predict $400 million domestic - boom! And as I said before I'm optimistically predicting right around 1 Billion total.

Once Pacific Rim comes out, what other big summer blockbuster is there waiting in the wings? Elysium will be a middle-of-the-road (in terms of numbers) blockbuster. And that doesn't come out until August.

Man of Steel has a rough patch with Monsters U, WWZ (which I actually expect to bomb hard), and then Pacific Rim. But Iron Man 3 had Star Trek, and then 5 weeks later MoS.

I don't buy any "doom and gloom" scenarios. I think despite the competition MoS will continue to pull in good money for the next 6-7 weeks.


It honestly shocks me how well Iron Man 3 did. I just don't see how that happened. MoS may not be a hit with critics, but with CBM viewers and general audiences it's a huge hit.

Agreed. Not to mention that MOS is a better film than IM3.

 

[robot]

Higher ticket prices may not necessarily mean less people buying tickets. There are a lot of other factors to take into consideration as well. In the entire entertainment scheme of things, the ticket price at the movie theater is the cheapest form of entertainment around. If you look at it in context of other events (concerts, amusement parks, sporting events, et. al.) you could raise the price to maybe $20 (per person $50 might be outrageous and impractical) and it would still be competitive.

You're right.. in my country most theaters now have Gold Class and charges up to $60/seat.. and Premium Class (that charges up to $28/ticket).. and they still fill up.. and even regular is now $13... and this is dollar for dollar (so, in reality since dollar for dollar, people here actually less than Americans)...

And people still go watch movies in droves... they do have deep discount on wednesdays though.. that would get all those that can't afford the high price in...