Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[MrMaooz]

It took 12 years to break Titanic's record.. and even then it took the same director James Cameron with Titanic... and he doesn't just break it, he shatters it... and even now, the biggest CMB of all time doesn't even come close to Titanic (if you count inflation)..

So, to break avatar, it might take another 10-15 years and maybe James Cameron again!!!!

It was a joke...

 

[dnno1]

You're right.. in my country most theaters now have Gold Class and charges up to $60/seat.. and Premium Class (that charges up to $28/ticket).. and they still fill up.. and even regular is now $13... and this is dollar for dollar (so, in reality since dollar for dollar, people here actually less than Americans)...

And people still go watch movies in droves... they do have deep discount on wednesdays though.. that would get all those that can't afford the high price in...

I guess my point is that people will seek what they perceive as the inferior good when times are hard. Since movie-going is the cheapest ticket, people will opt to go to the movies regardless of the price since it is always the cheapest form of entertainment.

 

[UrNuts2]

i'm gonna put my head on a block and make my end of week 6 prediction .. just a bit of stat math .. like Tobias said, it really comes down to this weekend's take to start off with .. if we assume 49m for this weekend then i'm at 293.5m by end of week 6, hence my prediction for it to cross 300m by end week 7 .. i'll adjust accordingly as new figures come in

 

[robot]

It was a joke...

Haha.. yes i know... but i just wanted to say that because as you prob know, I am a big James Cameron fan...!!

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

If you read my post from yesterday a friend, knowing I didn't want to know, went ahead and told me the BO numbers this weekend. Blowing my attempt to avoid news. Read my post from yesterday.

At least I'm revising them up - the predictions that is.

IMO MOS ends up with 275 domestic and 350 OS. That should be good enough for a sequel or a JL film.

I'm not an expert at crunching B.O.#'s but you do realize MOS will likely be north of $260 Million by July 4th at the latest? $300 Million is almost a given at this point, so you will be way off predicting $275 mill. You need to spend $5 for some Windex, because your crystal ball sriously needs some cleaning imo!

 

[rayc1971]

It's doubtful that it'll do $400M, but we'll know much more this weekend when we look at its hold against a competitive box office. It should drop by about 55% which would be a $52.2M weekend, but the Monday and Tuesday drops indicate that the drop may end up being only 48-49%, which would put $60M in play. Anything $60M or above and $400M is still in play depending on the drops. That would indicate that it would be up to about $325M after July 4 weekend. It should be past $300M by then, the question is just how far past it.

I tend to think it'll finish between $330-350M domestic and get near $500M international for over $800M total. That's excellent for film #1, especially considering how all the tie-ins likely reduced WB's cost. Couple that with strong Blu-ray, download, etc sales plus solid rentals and TV rights and the film will clear a billion when all aspects of it are counted.

That's a huge success, especially coming off the $380M of Returns and the $219M abysmal international showing for GL.

i agree that's a huge success and all we need for a franchise starter it doesn't need 400mill domestic was my point as well

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

The only reason the Avengers was successful was because of the individual films and the time that Marvel put in setting up its own comic book world. It seems to be that WB are only interested in quick money. And if they continue acting as such they are going to ruin our chances at having great DC movies.

Exactly. When you consider how much they tried to ground everything in MOS and make Superman a little more "plausible" - no mean feat for a movie about a flying alien who shoots lasers out of his eyes - it would make a rushed Justice League movie seem like they're just throwing everything out there to the audience all at once. Amazonian warrior! Space cop! Speedster! Batman! Guy who talks to fish! And so on.

I'm not saying a talented enough creative team couldn't make ir work. But that's a risky gamble to take. Consider the sheer difficulty in making a superhero team-up movie of this scale succeed. There are so many elements you have to balance with all the different heroes, which is why Joss Whedon went with a relatively simple plot for The Avengers (alien invasion + MacGuffin). I think one of the reasons it got such positive reviews was because people were amazed he managed to pull it off at all.

Part of the power of The Avengers was the added weight that the principal characters had due to their solo films. If Warner Bros. wants to chase the quick buck and fast-track Justice League without properly laying the foundation through solo films, they'll find that the box office payoff won't be nearly as great.

If they're looking for an Avengers-size event film, they need to create a similar level of anticipation by making solo flicks first. From a creative standpoint, it would also give the shared universe more depth.

 

[robot]

Exactly. When you consider how much they tried to ground everything in MOS and make Superman a little more "plausible" - no mean feat for a movie about a flying alien who shoots lasers out of his eyes - it would make a rushed Justice League movie seem like they're just throwing everything out there to the audience all at once. Amazonian warrior! Space cop! Speedster! Batman! Guy who talks to fish! And so on.

I'm not saying a talented enough creative team couldn't make ir work. But that's a risky gamble to take. Consider the sheer difficulty in making a superhero team-up movie of this scale succeed. There are so many elements you have to balance with all the different heroes, which is why Joss Whedon went with a relatively simple plot for The Avengers (alien invasion + MacGuffin). I think one of the reasons it got such positive reviews was because people were amazed he managed to pull it off at all.

Part of the power of The Avengers was the added weight that the principal characters had due to their solo films. If Warner Bros. wants to chase the quick buck and fast-track Justice League without properly laying the foundation through solo films, they'll find that the box office payoff won't be nearly as great.

If they're looking for an Avengers-size event film, they need to create a similar level of anticipation by making solo flicks first. From a creative standpoint, it would also give the shared universe more depth.

In my opinion, following in Marvel's footsteps of making individual movies for each of the superhero to introduce them is also a mistake... it's been done.. let's do something different.. and I won't want to wait another 10 years for Justice League...

The only way that makes sense is to create a Justice League Trilogy... the entire script is written and the whole movie shot at the same time like they did with LOTR... and have each movie 3 hour long.. in this JL, they'll be introducing all the characters all at once... they'll have 9 hours to do it... it'll be the length of a MiniSeries... and they can make it really epic... liek maybe part one introducing troubles stating up regionally, and introducing the characters... then part two, they start to get together and battles takes place over the planet... and part three is a huge war of the worlds... or something like that..

Then spin off the individual characters into different movies...

That'll be the opposite of how Marvel did it... (This is my opinion though)

 

[113]

Exactly. When you consider how much they tried to ground everything in MOS and make Superman a little more "plausible" - no mean feat for a movie about a flying alien who shoots lasers out of his eyes - it would make a rushed Justice League movie seem like they're just throwing everything out there to the audience all at once. Amazonian warrior! Space cop! Speedster! Batman! Guy who talks to fish! And so on.

I'm not saying a talented enough creative team couldn't make ir work. But that's a risky gamble to take. Consider the sheer difficulty in making a superhero team-up movie of this scale succeed. There are so many elements you have to balance with all the different heroes, which is why Joss Whedon went with a relatively simple plot for The Avengers (alien invasion + MacGuffin). I think one of the reasons it got such positive reviews was because people were amazed he managed to pull it off at all.

Part of the power of The Avengers was the added weight that the principal characters had due to their solo films. If Warner Bros. wants to chase the quick buck and fast-track Justice League without properly laying the foundation through solo films, they'll find that the box office payoff won't be nearly as great.

If they're looking for an Avengers-size event film, they need to create a similar level of anticipation by making solo flicks first. From a creative standpoint, it would also give the shared universe more depth.

I just don't think following the Marvel formula to a tee will work either. And I think that because I think most of the DC core characters are just so much more outlandish and harder to put on film, especially in a "realistic" world.

I don't think Aquaman can carry his own film, I don't think Cyborg can, at this point I don't think GL can carry his own film with the bad taste of the first GL still in people's mouths (his next solo outing should wait). Or a GL movie maybe shouldn't even bet a solo outing, but a movie with Hal + John Stewart finding their way as Lanters and buddies.

I think the smartest way for DC to go is to do this:

-Have a solo Flash film
-Have a solo Wonder Woman film
-Have another MoS movie
-Have a World's Finest movie that also serves as MoS 3 in a way. This would also serve as the reintroduction of Batman as a character - no origin story needed
-THEN have a Justice League movie where GL is introduced (So that's a five member JLA team initially of Supes + Bats + WW + Flash + GL)

-Then do the GL movie, maybe do a MM movie, do sequels for Flash, WW, Batman, introduce Aquaman and Cyborg as secondary characters.

-Then do JLA 2.

 

[113]

In my opinion, following in Marvel's footsteps of making individual movies for each of the superhero to introduce them is also a mistake... it's been done.. let's do something different.. and I won't want to wait another 10 years for Justice League...

The only way that makes sense is to create a Justice League Trilogy... the entire script is written and the whole movie shot at the same time like they did with LOTR... and have each movie 3 hour long.. in this JL, they'll be introducing all the characters all at once... they'll have 9 hours to do it... it'll be the length of a MiniSeries... and they can make it really epic... liek maybe part one introducing troubles stating up regionally, and introducing the characters... then part two, they start to get together and battles takes place over the planet... and part three is a huge war of the worlds... or something like that..

Then spin off the individual characters into different movies...

That'll be the opposite of how Marvel did it... (This is my opinion though)

This is also an interesting idea I haven't heard yet, going the LOTR route...hmmm

That may work, but I still think at least DC should do a World's Finest before the big JLA teamup.

World's Finest on its' own would probably make close-to, if not more, than Avengers. Almost everyone on the planet has always wanted to see Superman and Batman team-up together on film. I think it's a wasted opportunity for WB doesn't capitalize on that first.

But your LOTR idea is something to think about definitely.

 

[UrNuts2]

In my opinion, following in Marvel's footsteps of making individual movies for each of the superhero to introduce them is also a mistake... it's been done.. let's do something different.. and I won't want to wait another 10 years for Justice League...

The only way that makes sense is to create a Justice League Trilogy... the entire script is written and the whole movie shot at the same time like they did with LOTR... and have each movie 3 hour long.. in this JL, they'll be introducing all the characters all at once... they'll have 9 hours to do it... it'll be the length of a MiniSeries... and they can make it really epic... liek maybe part one introducing troubles stating up regionally, and introducing the characters... then part two, they start to get together and battles takes place over the planet... and part three is a huge war of the worlds... or something like that..

Then spin off the individual characters into different movies...

That'll be the opposite of how Marvel did it... (This is my opinion though)

i'm inclined to kinda agree here .. think 2 JL movies could do it though .. but MoS2 first, which at this point might be a given, then WF .. then series event of 2 JL films .. my 2c

 

[Tobias]

I'm not an expert at crunching B.O.#'s but you do realize MOS will likely be north of $260 Million by July 4th at the latest? $300 Million is almost a given at this point, so you will be way off predicting $275 mill. You need to spend $5 for some Windex, because your crystal ball sriously needs some cleaning imo!

Yes. I think by July 4th MOS will be around 260 million. But using typical fall-offs and assuming as I am a big drop this weekend (60/62%) the weekend total will be under 10 million and weekdays a couple of million after July 4th. Hard to se how that gets you to 300 million.

Aside from my big anticipated drop this weekend I am using typical fall-off figures for the following weeks.

We'll see.

 

[robot]

This is also an interesting idea I haven't heard yet, going the LOTR route...hmmm

That may work, but I still think at least DC should do a World's Finest before the big JLA teamup.

World's Finest on its' own would probably make close-to, if not more, than Avengers. Almost everyone on the planet has always wanted to see Superman and Batman team-up together on film. I think it's a wasted opportunity for WB doesn't capitalize on that first.

But your LOTR idea is something to think about definitely.

I would definitely love a World's Finest... also gives it a chance to re-boot or re-introduce batman... i think that's sorely needed as TDK is over...

So, maybe start doing WF, and release it in 2015, but at the same time, already writing and creating the JL Trilogy to be released 2016, 17, 18... That'll be superb!!! (basically have both projects done at the same time)

Meanwhile, maybe do MOS 2 in 2014 (release it end of 2014 and they'll have 1.5 years still... I am sure Goyer already have part of the script so it's doable)...

i'm inclined to kinda agree here .. think 2 JL movies could do it though .. but MoS2 first, which at this point might be a given, then WF .. then series event of 2 JL films .. my 2c

The reason I like a trilogy is because i love EPICness.. and so far, most of the Marvel ones are standalones and they just dont' seem 'epic' enough... in order for something to feel truly epic, you need to have that feeling that the world is really large... and the characters are all very well developed... and the story needs to be long...

 

[tomoe]

I kind of hope it crashes a little. Not enough so WB won't go ahead with a sequel, but just enough so that they will reconsider using the same team. At least one and preferably both of them has to go and be replaced by someone with a better track record.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I think MoS will do around 315-320m domestic and around 475-500 OS. It will for sure cross the 300m mark

 

[Tobias]

I kind of hope it crashes a little. Not enough so WB won't go ahead with a sequel, but just enough so that they will reconsider using the same team. At least one and preferably both of them has to go and be replaced by someone with a better track record.

I think a sequel or JL is likely at this point.

However, WB can't be happy with the reviews. The pattern w/ IronMan, Spiderman and Batman was a moderately successful first film with great critical acclaim. Followed up by a huge sequel - in terms of BO.

With MOS there isn't the critical acclaim so will a follow-up do as much better as these other films?

What I think happens if MOS turns out to not have strong legs is that WB will go with a JL or a WF instead of a stand-alone MOS sequel. To guarantee a huge box. Maybe tweak the team or bring in fresh blood to assist.

If MOS turns out to have legs then a stand-alone MOS is likely.

 

[STARMAN]

A lot of these movies lose 60% of their audience in week 2. Wouldn't shock me.

 

[RCM]

I just want this movie to make enough money for a sequel

 

[Sup3rman81]

I think a sequel or JL is likely at this point.

However, WB can't be happy with the reviews. The pattern w/ IronMan, Spiderman and Batman was a moderately successful first film with great critical acclaim. Followed up by a huge sequel - in terms of BO.

With MOS there isn't the critical acclaim so will a follow-up do as much better as these other films?

What I think happens if MOS turns out to not have strong legs is that WB will go with a JL or a WF instead of a stand-alone MOS sequel. To guarantee a huge box. Maybe tweak the team or bring in fresh blood to assist.

If MOS turns out to have legs then a stand-alone MOS is likely.

Sometimes I feel like you are on here just to piss people off. You find every avenue to down play this movie. Its a success and it will continue to be one. As far as drops go IM3 did just over 8m its first Wednesday. So MOS is ahead of it there.

 

[Axl Van Sixx]

Wow, lots of great ideas here.

robot, that LOTR-style Justice League trilogy seems like a very interesting way to differentiate DC's strategy from Marvel's, and I would love to see the DC Universe given that kind of epic treatment. If anything, it's the only way to top The Avengers as a team-up event. Of course, that kind of (glorious) excess might make people less inclined to watch solo films afterwards, but that's probably a misplaced concern on my part.

113, I like your proposed blueprint for the DC Cinematic Universe. Flash and Wonder Woman in my opinion are the only Justice League members at this point who really need their own films. The problem is the Batman question. Does he need a solo reboot first (that hopefully doesn't re-tell the origin again)? Can you introduce him in World's Finest or Justice League?

I feel that with World's Finest, you would need to reboot Batman first in a solo film first, because if you're not going to use Christian Bale - which of course would be an instant movie event - you still need to create some kind of anticipation for seeing the new-wave Superman and Batman together.

Anyway, we're kind of counting our chickens before they hatch. If there's one thing I'm certain of, it's that before I want ANY of the above, what I want first and foremost is a Man of Steel sequel that further explores the world of this new Superman. I want to see Snyder, Goyer and Nolan's take on Luthor and Brainiac and Daily Planet Clark.

And in order to get THAT - here's my clever segue back to the main topic of this thread - we need great box office results for MOS. Godspeed, Superman!

 

[tomoe]

I think a sequel or JL is likely at this point.

However, WB can't be happy with the reviews. The pattern w/ IronMan, Spiderman and Batman was a moderately successful first film with great critical acclaim. Followed up by a huge sequel - in terms of BO.

With MOS there isn't the critical acclaim so will a follow-up do as much better as these other films?

What I think happens if MOS turns out to not have strong legs is that WB will go with a JL or a WF instead of a stand-alone MOS sequel. To guarantee a huge box. Maybe tweak the team or bring in fresh blood to assist.

If MOS turns out to have legs then a stand-alone MOS is likely.

I'd rather have a MOS sequel than JL or WF; I'm just afraid if MOS turns out to have great legs the sequel will be more of the same from the same team. I mean, Transformers got trashed by critics, but the sequels certainly did not get better and in fact got worse. I can't even think of a critically trashed first movie that got a highly acclaimed sequel.

 

[robot]

Wow, lots of great ideas here.

robot, that LOTR-style Justice League trilogy seems like a very interesting way to differentiate DC's strategy from Marvel's, and I would love to see the DC Universe given that kind of epic treatment. If anything, it's the only way to top The Avengers as a team-up event. Of course, that kind of (glorious) excess might make people less inclined to watch solo films afterwards, but that's probably a misplaced concern on my part.

113, I like your proposed blueprint for the DC Cinematic Universe. Flash and Wonder Woman in my opinion are the only Justice League members at this point who really need their own films. The problem is the Batman question. Does he need a solo reboot first (that hopefully doesn't re-tell the origin again)? Can you introduce him in World's Finest or Justice League?

I feel that with World's Finest, you would need to reboot Batman first in a solo film first, because if you're not going to use Christian Bale - which of course would be an instant movie event - you still need to create some kind of anticipation for seeing the new-wave Superman and Batman together.

Anyway, we're kind of counting our chickens before they hatch. If there's one thing I'm certain of, it's that before I want ANY of the above, what I want first and foremost is a Man of Steel sequel that further explores the world of this new Superman. I want to see Snyder, Goyer and Nolan's take on Luthor and Brainiac and Daily Planet Clark.

And in order to get THAT - here's my clever segue back to the main topic of this thread - we need great box office results for MOS. Godspeed, Superman!

Let's see how close it gets to my wish of 1B for MOS....

 

[UrNuts2]

I'd rather have a MOS sequel than JL or WF; I'm just afraid if MOS turns out to have great legs the sequel will be more of the same from the same team. I mean, Transformers got trashed by critics, but the sequels certainly did not get better and in fact got worse. I can't even think of a critically trashed first movie that got a highly acclaimed sequel.

always a 1st for everything .. like MoS trashing the June opening box record

 

[Stephen K. Hone]

Yes. I think by July 4th MOS will be around 260 million. But using typical fall-offs and assuming as I am a big drop this weekend (60/62%) the weekend total will be under 10 million and weekdays a couple of million after July 4th. Hard to se how that gets you to 300 million.

Aside from my big anticipated drop this weekend I am using typical fall-off figures for the following weeks.

We'll see.

July 4th falls on a Thursday, and for some people Friday will also be a holiday so that is almost like a four day weekend. My $260 million estimate was conservative, as I think it could actually be a tad higher by then. At this point imo $300 mill is basically a lock.

 

[tomoe]

always a 1st for everything .. like MoS trashing the June opening box record

Yeah lets hope. But not holding my breath for a fantastic sequel if they keep Snyder and Goyer. MOS's June record was in great part due to the intense advertising and great trailers. Even thinking about trailer 3 makes me want to go watch it again, even though I've already watched it and know what to expect.