Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[TheNextNolan22]

I'm not even gonna bother. I'm just happy it's doing very well and I'm interested to hear the OS numbers. *Back to the GIF WAR thread*

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It most certainly is but we already had that expectation based on the opening weekend figures & weekdays since. At the moment the predictions for this weekend are slightly disappointing. As an isolated 2nd weekend figure it could be slightly better even in the face of competition. Doesn't mean it's not fine, just a little under most people's expectations from just a few days ago.

How much better though? WWZ is over performing and so is Monster's University slightly? I'm not saying don't be disappointed or pretend this is the greatest drop ever but were you expecting a 60mil weekend with two huge films coming out? I always thought it was going to be extremely hard to hit 50mil this weekend.

 

[sf2]

Actually projections have it doing 45-47mil. Which is fine considering the competition.

You guys were insane if you thought that two big openers were not going to hurt the film.

but 13.2M friday, how to make up to 45m for the weekends???

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

but 13.2M friday, how to make up to 45m for the weekends???

If goes up 38-40% today it can hit 45mil. I'm not saying it's a lock for 45mil but it's possible.

 

[robot]

but 13.2M friday, how to make up to 45m for the weekends???

I was thinking the same thing... the legs have been cut off pretty well by WWZ and MU.. and next week, further chopped off by White House Down...

But like i said, this is missed opportunity due to a bad schedule, but the film will do fine still.. .just not as 'great as it possibly can'... this movie will make mega bucks (profit) when you consider the 'tie ins' in toys, advertising, etc...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I knew you guys were going to be disappointed in the box office numbers because your expectations were so massive. You guys literally think that anything under 300mil is a failure and there was nothing I could do to lower expectations.

 

[Iceman]

How much better though? WWZ is over performing and so is Monster's University slightly? I'm not saying don't be disappointed or pretend this is the greatest drop ever but were you expecting a 60mil weekend with two huge films coming out? I always thought it was going to be extremely hard to hit 50mil this weekend.

Not much.

60m is 33% better than the low end 45m so it's a different universe. 50m would have been great. If it goes with current projections it will be fine, just a little disappointing compared to opening weekend and weekday figures which suggested the possibility of a bit more. The main domestic box office news has already happened and we know MoS is going to be a successful reboot whatever happens from now on. As others have said now the international numbers will be more important.

 

[Marvin]

A 70% drop as some people are suggesting doesn't look good. Obviously there are understandable circumstances(like pit finally having a big opening), but history only really remembers the numbers.

anything over 40 in it's second week is plenty respectable.

Safe to say this was in fact a dumb release date and even the vacant week earlier would have made more sense.

 

[Iceman]

I knew you guys were going to be disappointed in the box office numbers because your expectations were so massive. You guys literally think that anything under 300mil is a failure and there was nothing I could do to lower expectations.

It's not really like that. MoS has still surprised positively overall. Surprisingly good opening, surprisingly good weekdays & now a slightly underwhelming 2nd weekend. Net effect still positive surprise.

 

[sf2]

If goes up 38-40% today it can hit 45mil. I'm not saying it's a lock for 45mil but it's possible.

? most unlikely. i wonder if it can hit 40m now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

A 70% drop as some people are suggesting doesn't look good. Obviously there are understandable circumstances(like pit finally having a big opening), but history only really remembers the numbers.

anything over 40 in it's second week is plenty respectable.

Safe to say this was in fact a dumb release date and even the vacant week earlier would have made more sense.

I was always against this weekend. In July this movie would have been a lock for over 300mil but WB apparently thinks that Rim is going to be putting up 350-400mil domestically in that spot and maybe it will I don't know.
Still I crunched the numbers because I'm a box office loon and think it's getting at least 275mil, I'm going with 285-295milmil total personally.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

? most unlikely. i wonder if it can hit 40m now.

Now you are just being silly. It's going to hit 40mil. Are you going to go down to 30mil next? Unless Mojo comes out with a number a million lower it's doing over 40mil.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Hope WB learns from this and releases MOS 2 in mid July.

 

[Mysteryman]

Look at the bright side guys ,
Only one big release next week.

 

[Rev]

And what if WB did release it in July and the same thing happened. Would we still be saying WB dropped the ball by not releasing it earlier? At this point everything is just speculative.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie is a hit already, people are just speculating on whether it could have done even better is all.

 

[Tony Stark]

I said it was pretty silly for those who just assumed that WWZ was going to flop.

 

[sf2]

Look at the bright side guys ,
Only one big release next week.

white house down will bomb. lol

 

[Pickle-El]

Not good. Anything more than a 60% drop is quite severe.

Prob looking at less than 300 domestic now.

 

[KingKane88]

That's bad. 13.2M is too low.

This is just bad! I don't care how anyone wants to spin it, this is simply awful!!! Fingers crossed for a better Saturday!

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

White House Down will do great, it looks like tons of fun and MOS will have a better weekend. Just like Furious 6 and Hunger Games had a better weekends after their big drops.

 

[Tony Stark]

Not good. Anything more than a 60% drop is quite severe.

Prob looking at less than 300 domestic now.

Yeah if you count the Wal-Mart numbers this is in a free fall.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

We get Tony Stark, you hate the movie.

 

[Iceman]

I misread. Is $45m the top end of expectations?

 

[Snark88]

Let me put this in perspective for some people who are disappointed. I mean first off I mentioned a few times before that this would happen because of WWZ and MU, but whatever.

Superman Returns had a budget of $270mil, and it made $200mil domestically over the course of it's entire run.

Man of Steel had a budget of $225mil, and it's practically locked in to hit the $200mil mark by the end of the weekend.

So while a 70% drop is disappointing, it was kinda expected given the circumstances, but you need to look at the bigger picture here. We also don't know what the OS box office is yet. MoS just opened in some countries today and some countries have to wait even longer. It's safe to say MoS is gonna be fine.