Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

We get Tony Stark, you hate the movie.

No need for snarky remark. I don't hate the movie, I was disappointed and thought it was OK, not great.

We are discussing BO, and there's really no way to sugar coat this. The talk here is pretty mild compared to the BoT. Of couse deadlines stupid early numbers of 19M aren't helping.

 

[Stoic]

Boxoffice.com just released their Friday estimate of $12.7M.

 

[Tony Stark]

13.5 is Deadline's number and Nikki was so way off base yesterday, I don't trust her numbers. 12.7 is probably more accurate.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No need for snarky remake. I don't hate the movie, I was disappointed and thought it was OK, not great.

We are discussing BO, and there's really no way to sugar coat this. The talk here is pretty mild compared to the BoT. Of couse deadlines stupid early numbers of 19M aren't helping.

I'm not sugarcoating it, it's not a good drop. Period. Obviously I wish it had hit 45-50mil but what am I going to do? All I care about is if WB is happy enough with the final numbers to make a sequel.

That boxoffice.com number should be correct. So 41-43mil, which is not a good drop but the movie will still pass Superman Returns this weekend.

 

[Pickle-El]

I misread. Is $45m the top end of expectations?

Yup.

This whole week was really strange for MOS. The box office will level itself out, as it always does.....but, MOS was quite lucky to have that opening with these two new movies far overperforming.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Anyway I'm really going now because box office.com just released the numbers. Hoping for a 35% increase today. I might be back in this thread at 12ish pm Sunday. Have a good day all.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yup.

This whole week was really strange for MOS. The box office will level itself out, as it always does.....but, MOS was quite lucky to have that opening with these two new movies far overperforming.

Yeah, if it had what Star Trek Into Darkness had on its opening, and had this kind of drop.....well thakfully we don't have to worry.

 

[KingKane88]

And what if WB did release it in July and the same thing happened. Would we still be saying WB dropped the ball by not releasing it earlier? At this point everything is just speculative.

All you people talking about this July crap need to stop! MOS launched in June, nothing anyone can do about it, so please stop with these wishful scenarios! Lets focus on fact and not on "what ifs"!

 

[Iceman]

Yup.

This whole week was really strange for MOS. The box office will level itself out, as it always does.....but, MOS was quite lucky to have that opening with these two new movies far overperforming.

Thanks. And yeah thankfully it did really well before these films came out.

Let me put this in perspective for some people who are disappointed. I mean first off I mentioned a few times before that this would happen because of WWZ and MU, but whatever.

Superman Returns had a budget of $270mil, and it made $200mil domestically over the course of it's entire run.

Man of Steel had a budget of $225mil, and it's practically locked in to hit the $200mil mark by the end of the weekend.

So while a 70% drop is disappointing, it was kinda expected given the circumstances, but you need to look at the bigger picture here. We also don't know what the OS box office is yet. MoS just opened in some countries today and some countries have to wait even longer. It's safe to say MoS is gonna be fine.

The overseas numbers, the budget, the overall domestic gross and the performance of prior films....none of that stops a 2nd weekend drop in isolation being a disappointment. I was going on something I read of $45m - $48m. If it ends up being low 40s that's just not great. It will be fine regardless overall, just less fine that it was looking a few days ago.

 

[Excel]

The folks who actually know and understand the box office have felt mid June was a horrible choice for a while.

Man of Steel in PACIFIC RIMS spot might challenge 400m. Instead it is likely to crawl to 300m. WB cost themselves millions by picking a poor date to open on. Likely think they will overall benefit from having PR in July but I doubt that.

 

[Project862006]

lowers than originally said

@BoxOffice MAN OF STEEL: $12.70M Friday (est) / $181.49M Domestic Total / 4,207 Locations / $3,019 Location Avg. #ManOfSteel

 

[Excel]

Might cross 200m today.

9 days to outgross Superman Returns, bahahaha.

 

[STARMAN]

Huge drop. You'll have to fight to get to 40 mill.

 

[NADALWON]

It's not really like that. MoS has still surprised positively overall. Surprisingly good opening, surprisingly good weekdays & now a slightly underwhelming 2nd weekend. Net effect still positive surprise.

I don't think "good" opening is the right word. Record-breaking opening. MOS broke the all-time June record, also broke the all-time reboot record-

Man Of Steel $117mill ($129mill if Thursday night counts)
Spider-man $114.8mill
Iron Man $98.6mill
Thor $65.7mill
The Amazing Spider-man $62mill
Batman Begins $48.7mill

The folks who actually know and understand the box office have felt mid June was a horrible choice for a while.

Man of Steel in PACIFIC RIMS spot might challenge 400m. Instead it is likely to crawl to 300m. WB cost themselves millions by picking a poor date to open on. Likely think they will overall benefit from having PR in July but I doubt that.

I doubt MOS would have got the June record (or reboot record) if it didn't open on Father's Day weekend.

 

[Project862006]

i do hope it does great overseas look at tasm it only made 262 domestically but was saved via international BO to make over 750 million WW

 

[UrNuts2]

relax people, seriously ..

IM3 had a 72% drop on its 2nd Friday .. also, typically, from its 2nd weekend onwards, the Sat take is higher than the Fri take .. it's only opening weekend Fri that typically outperforms the Sat & Sun on its 1st weekend

 

[Sup3rman81]

If 12.7 holds up then it will need a huge Saturday to get to 43-45m which I feel it needs for a successful 2nd weekend. There are just to many options out this weekend. Against WWZ MOS would have done great but against MU and a PG-13 WWZ is very tough. WWZ could have inflated numbers since people were willing to check it out and see what all the buzz was about. MoS could still recover and take 2nd. I feel WW MOS will reach 750-800m but I think WB should be happy with 275 - 300m domestic

 

[TheNextNolan22]

WB will no doubt be pleased with the numbers either way. I personally think they should have opened it on a better date.

 

[Ita-KalEl]

It's a normal drop when the competition is good (two big movies to face). I think that WWZ is more frontloaded than MOS and the same thing will be for Pacific Rim. So there is still all the time for good legs. For me it will end between 270 and 300, with a good success overseas. Several months ago I said that MOS would have done similar numbers to Amazing Spiderman. In my opinion it would be a fantastic result for a reboot that comes from nothing.

 

[Nvmyprixgt]

WWZ definetely Doing well, not sure why people are surprised. Same thing happened with Gatsby, people were surprised it did so well. How, I don't know. Every single person I know was beyond excited to see Gatsby and it was all over everyone's Facebook. It was weird to me when people didnt think it was going to do well.

Variety still thinks it can pull in 50 mil this weekend.

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

I'm not sugarcoating it, it's not a good drop. Period. Obviously I wish it had hit 45-50mil but what am I going to do? All I care about is if WB is happy enough with the final numbers to make a sequel.

That boxoffice.com number should be correct. So 41-43mil, which is not a good drop but the movie will still pass Superman Returns this weekend.

For all the hype just barely.

 

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Might cross 200m today.

9 days to outgross Superman Returns, bahahaha.

With all the hype and CGI, I guess you can be proud. MOS is sinking like rock in a pond because its just not a good movie.

At least SR has a better score, better music & a better Superman.

300 million tops and thats mostly because people were interested in all the talk about the CGI effects.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

With all the hype and CGI, I guess you can be proud. MOS is sinking like rock in a pond because its just not a good movie.

At least SR has a better score, better music & a better Superman.

300 million tops and thats mostly because people were interested in all the talk about the CGI effects.

Right.....

 

[Nvmyprixgt]

With all the hype and CGI, I guess you can be proud. MOS is sinking like rock in a pond because its just not a good movie.

At least SR has a better score, better music & a better Superman.

300 million tops and thats mostly because people were interested in all the talk about the CGI effects.

Cool story bro. You're definetely correct. I lied.

 

[DarthAlani]

Superman would kick Obi-wan's ass. On a more serious note, MOS2 needs a better release date.