Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[J.Howlett]

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/man-of-steel-spoiler-sequel-superman/

"Dark and violent?" I give the hell up...

 

[Marvin]

that is not an indication that MOS doesnt have legs. Lots of great movies and ones that were financially successful have had 60% or close to 60% drops its first monday. Harry Potter, Twilight, ASM had 57%, Spider Man had a 65% drop. They all went on to do quite well. Most Potter and Twilight films followed this pattern. Huge OW and decent following weekends until finish. I feel MOS 2 will need some polishing but it should make the money that TDK, TDKR, IM3 made, maybe even Avengers

Just seen that IM 2 had a 69% drop 1st Mon and a 74% drop the next monday...it made 312m+ by the way. so people saying MOS cant reach 300m or more are crazy

Iron Man 1 had a 73.4% drop its first Monday

I went through BOmojo and Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 3 all had 60%+ drops its first Monday.

It really boils down to the comp imo.
Take another look at what was opening the the weeks following IM1-2. I think the biggest openers were indy4 and the other had something like shrek4...

Not only was mos facing 148(i think)mill worth of comp from two of it's major demo's in it's second week, but these next few weeks are more big double features(every week).
This pretty much means MOS is going to be dropping down two slots each weekend(until Z catches up).

Granted some of these up coming films may be bombs we never know. Point being those comparisons may be promising in some ways, but they also neglect the competition aspect. WB picked a hell of a spot.

Looking at asm's and a few others numbers, I think 75-80 mill more is very doable.
It's all about the international market as far as I'm concerned. If that holds MoS will land ahead of THG and ASM, and a good amount of other successful films from last year and beyond.

 

[robot]

that is not an indication that MOS doesnt have legs. Lots of great movies and ones that were financially successful have had 60% or close to 60% drops its first monday. Harry Potter, Twilight, ASM had 57%, Spider Man had a 65% drop. They all went on to do quite well. Most Potter and Twilight films followed this pattern. Huge OW and decent following weekends until finish. I feel MOS 2 will need some polishing but it should make the money that TDK, TDKR, IM3 made, maybe even Avengers

Just seen that IM 2 had a 69% drop 1st Mon and a 74% drop the next monday...it made 312m+ by the way. so people saying MOS cant reach 300m or more are crazy

Iron Man 1 had a 73.4% drop its first Monday

I went through BOmojo and Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 3 all had 60%+ drops its first Monday.

I think it will cross 300M.. but having big box office numbers are not the same as having legs.. having legs is going weeks after weeks from great WOM... if a movie starts out strong, having legs means it remains strong... if it starts out strong, then dropped precipitously, means it doesn't.. it's simple.. and for a movie like superman, the pent up demand is so high that it'll naturally get really high OW numbers.. and will still end up doing really well in the BO.. but that doesn't mean it has legs... those are two different things...

 

[J.Howlett]

How pent up was the demand for another Superman film though?

Was the general audience asking for another one?

 

[robot]

C'mon be realistic. No matter how you reedit, people will still complain. If they can't see it or refuse to see it, no matter how you reedit, they will find other ways to complain about.

That's the kind of attitude that makes a poor CEO... if a CEO doesn't listen to their customer's complains, and have the attitude, 'oh, hell, who cares what they complain about.. ', instead of trying to figure out what's wrong and fix it, you'll have a company that's on the way down...

 

[robot]

How pent up was the demand for another Superman film though?

Was the general audience asking for another one?

HUGE...

With almost no marketing in most OS markets, people went to watch MOS in droves...

If people think the biggest, most recognizable icon in the world doesn't have a demand, they are fooling themselves...

But once they watch it (the pent up demand ones), and if they find it only so-so, they won't go out of their way to drag their friends to the theater.. thus, no legs...

 

[Marvin]

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/man-of-steel-spoiler-sequel-superman/

"Dark and violent?" I give the hell up...

This article was worth it for the comments alone lol. The second comment is of particular interest to me.

 

[sf2]

That's the kind of attitude that makes a poor CEO... if a CEO doesn't listen to their customer's complains, and have the attitude, 'oh, hell, who cares what they complain about.. ', instead of trying to figure out what's wrong and fix it, you'll have a company that's on the way down...

Your analogy isnt applied here. Surely every business will need to do post mortem to try to improve n to do better next time.
What I am talking here r all those complaints with a sole purpose to badmouth the movie. Therefore no matter how u edit they will still hate it to the bone.
Can you imagine... they r saying SR is miles better than MOS?

 

[kalhawj]

In the UK MOS is still number one this past weekend. Even with WWZ being release there. This is just one example on how well MOS is doing oversea.
In time we will all join Superman in the sun to enjoy his BO run...

1. (1) Man of Steel - £5,073,356
2. (-) World War Z - £4,535,899
3. (2) After Earth - £432,881
4. (5) Behind the Candelabra - £367,888

 

[Marvin]

In the UK MOS is still number one this past weekend. Even with WWZ being release there. This is just one example on how well MOS is doing oversea.
In time we will all join Superman in the sun to enjoy his BO run...

1. (1) Man of Steel - £5,073,356
2. (-) World War Z - £4,535,899
3. (2) After Earth - £432,881
4. (5) Behind the Candelabra - £367,888

I wonder what would have happened to MOS's number had Monsters opened up there too.

WWZ has not need of the young/family crowd.

 

[FlawlessVictory]

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/man-of-steel-spoiler-sequel-superman/

"Dark and violent?" I give the hell up...

I love MOS but I did find it to be dark and violent. I bet if this film had a less violent and brutal ending (less destruction shown and Zod not being killed but sent back to the PZ) that the BO numbers would be better.

I think him killing Zod in that manner turned quite a few people off. You then have people leaving thinking the movie was ok but taking issue with how it ended and giving a lukewarm WOM. Have a safer ending and people are willing to speak highly of it. Personally, I have no problem with it but I can see the possible effect it had. All IMO of course.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I love MOS but I did find it to be dark and violent. I bet if this film had a less violent and brutal ending (less destruction shown and Zod not being killed but sent back to the PZ) that the BO numbers would be better.

I think him killing Zod in that manner turned quite a few people off. You then have people leaving thinking the movie was ok but taking issue with how it ended and giving a lukewarm WOM. Have a safer ending and people are willing to speak highly of it. Personally, I have no problem with it but I can see the possible effect it had. All IMO of course.

It made my friends like it more.....

 

[Princess Denise]

Some reasons I think MOS has dropped more than many expected:

1) WB's fantastic marketing created a lot of "OMG I can't wait to see how awesome this movie is anticipation!". A lot of people like me who usually wait for the second or third week to check out a movie went the first weekend because we just could not wait any longer. Also, it virtually had no competition the first week and MOS was really the only option for anyone wanting to see a movie. And it was a holiday weekend with many flocking to see it on Father's day. The good news is that this gave us a record breaking June opening! However, a more "normal" weekend gross would have meant that there would have still been loads of people who would plan on seeing it at a later time, but in this case most of those already saw it opening week. MOS' gross will be more lopsided than most, but I still think it will end up the same.

2) WOM is good, but not great. People who have seen it are probably telling others that it is a good, entertaining flick, but very few I am sure are saying that it is the must see movie of the year. When TDK came out a few years ago people who I hardly knew would come up to me at work and in my neighborhood to tell me how awesome it was and how I had to see it. That kind of enthusiasm is sure NOT happening with MOS. That kind of WOM is fine for OW when there is little competition, but won't do much with GA non-comic book fans especially when there is stiff competition such as a Pixar powerhouse and a huge star like Brad Pitt. Again, it does not mean that WOM is bad for MOS! If you look at the daily grosses MOS did great until last Wednesday, but then it had to compete with the NBA finals and then MU and WWZ. With most of its most enthusiastic fans maxed out, MOS just got lost in the shuffle with all the new bright, shiny objects.

3) I think the rotten score on RT has marginally hurt MOS. Maybe not OW, but in the subsequent week when "on-the-fence" types were deciding on whether to see say WWZ or MOS probably the majority chose to see WWZ based on its fresh rating.

3) This has been a worry of mine since the reviews started coming out with many pointing out how violent MOS is. I feared that parents would hear about this and not let their kids see MOS because of it. I think it is an unfair criticism, but there is no doubt the perception is out there. I have not seen any data on it, but I would bet that MOS has less kids seeing it than the normal comic book movie. And with the more kid-friendly MU coming out, well, MOS really has no chance at all. Kids really drive the BO in summer so cutting off that market could really hurt big time.

 

[Sup3rman81]

I think it will cross 300M.. but having big box office numbers are not the same as having legs.. having legs is going weeks after weeks from great WOM... if a movie starts out strong, having legs means it remains strong... if it starts out strong, then dropped precipitously, means it doesn't.. it's simple.. and for a movie like superman, the pent up demand is so high that it'll naturally get really high OW numbers.. and will still end up doing really well in the BO.. but that doesn't mean it has legs... those are two different things...

it does have legs and WOM. Like I said other great WOM movies had drops comparable to MOS. MOS has loads of competition. I know some users (not saying you) want to bash MOS and say its WOM but it aint.

 

[Tobias]

If 60% weekend drops are how MOS plays out the rest of it's run it will end up at 270 - 275. A 2.3 multiplier or so. Less than average. Plus the drops are totally out of the norm if they continue. GL type drops.

That has to worry WB a lot. Will they reconsider doing a sequel? Maybe not but it looks like plans to use MOS2 to launch other DC characters may not be effective. If MOS2 does the same or less than MOS. Tomb Raider scenario.

Something went wrong. I think it's a combo of things. I hope WB does not blame it on the character and give up. Huge crowds turned out for MOS but the film didn't impress them enough to do repeat viewings or insist their friends see it.

Business as usual won't do. I'm sorry but I think it wwill be a huge mistake if WB continues with the same creative team. It could potentially kill the franchise IMO - if MOS2 underperforms MOS.

Too violent? Yes for a Supes film. I find it interesting that Nolan wasn't for Superman killing but Goyer and Snyder insisted. What will they insist on in MOS2.

WB needs to wait until the final numbers are in and evaluate them and have a long talk with the creators as to what went wrong and what is the path forward.

Rushing a sequel after these results is foolish and I doubt WB will. Forget 2015 - 2016 is far more prudent. They absolutely have to get the next one right.

 

[Sup3rman81]

Some reasons I think MOS has dropped more than many expected:

1) WB's fantastic marketing created a lot of "OMG I can't wait to see how awesome this movie is anticipation!". A lot of people like me who usually wait for the second or third week to check out a movie went the first weekend because we just could not wait any longer. Also, it virtually had no competition the first week and MOS was really the only option for anyone wanting to see a movie. And it was a holiday weekend with many flocking to see it on Father's day. The good news is that this gave us a record breaking June opening! However, a more "normal" weekend gross would have meant that there would have still been loads of people who would plan on seeing it at a later time, but in this case most of those already saw it opening week. MOS' gross will be more lopsided than most, but I still think it will end up the same.

2) WOM is good, but not great. People who have seen it are probably telling others that it is a good, entertaining flick, but very few I am sure are saying that it is the must see movie of the year. When TDK came out a few years ago people who I hardly knew would come up to me at work and in my neighborhood to tell me how awesome it was and how I had to see it. That kind of enthusiasm is sure NOT happening with MOS. That kind of WOM is fine for OW when there is little competition, but won't do much with GA non-comic book fans especially when there is stiff competition such as a Pixar powerhouse and a huge star like Brad Pitt. Again, it does not mean that WOM is bad for MOS! If you look at the daily grosses MOS did great until last Wednesday, but then it had to compete with the NBA finals and then MU and WWZ. With most of its most enthusiastic fans maxed out, MOS just got lost in the shuffle with all the new bright, shiny objects.

3) I think the rotten score on RT has marginally hurt MOS. Maybe not OW, but in the subsequent week when "on-the-fence" types were deciding on whether to see say WWZ or MOS probably the majority chose to see WWZ based on its fresh rating.

3) This has been a worry of mine since the reviews started coming out with many pointing out how violent MOS is. I feared that parents would hear about this and not let their kids see MOS because of it. I think it is an unfair criticism, but there is no doubt the perception is out there. I have not seen any data on it, but I would bet that MOS has less kids seeing it than the normal comic book movie. And with the more kid-friendly MU coming out, well, MOS really has no chance at all. Kids really drive the BO in summer so cutting off that market could really hurt big time.

I do not think DC and WB have tried to market to kids so much but more the 12 and older group. There is so much more violence on TV now days that MOS and TDK trilogy are light weights. Marvel has some serious tones and violence to its movies as well. I found the IM series to be just as dark as what DC is doing. Stark is a womanizer/alcoholic and that isnt for kids. but parents take them to see it anyways. I feel Avengers tried to be more family/kid friendly than the other phase 1 movies.

 

[kalhawj]

Some reasons I think MOS has dropped more than many expected:

1) WB's fantastic marketing created a lot of "OMG I can't wait to see how awesome this movie is anticipation!". A lot of people like me who usually wait for the second or third week to check out a movie went the first weekend because we just could not wait any longer. Also, it virtually had no competition the first week and MOS was really the only option for anyone wanting to see a movie. And it was a holiday weekend with many flocking to see it on Father's day. The good news is that this gave us a record breaking June opening! However, a more "normal" weekend gross would have meant that there would have still been loads of people who would plan on seeing it at a later time, but in this case most of those already saw it opening week. MOS' gross will be more lopsided than most, but I still think it will end up the same.

2) WOM is good, but not great. People who have seen it are probably telling others that it is a good, entertaining flick, but very few I am sure are saying that it is the must see movie of the year. When TDK came out a few years ago people who I hardly knew would come up to me at work and in my neighborhood to tell me how awesome it was and how I had to see it. That kind of enthusiasm is sure NOT happening with MOS. That kind of WOM is fine for OW when there is little competition, but won't do much with GA non-comic book fans especially when there is stiff competition such as a Pixar powerhouse and a huge star like Brad Pitt. Again, it does not mean that WOM is bad for MOS! If you look at the daily grosses MOS did great until last Wednesday, but then it had to compete with the NBA finals and then MU and WWZ. With most of its most enthusiastic fans maxed out, MOS just got lost in the shuffle with all the new bright, shiny objects.

3) I think the rotten score on RT has marginally hurt MOS. Maybe not OW, but in the subsequent week when "on-the-fence" types were deciding on whether to see say WWZ or MOS probably the majority chose to see WWZ based on its fresh rating.

3) This has been a worry of mine since the reviews started coming out with many pointing out how violent MOS is. I feared that parents would hear about this and not let their kids see MOS because of it. I think it is an unfair criticism, but there is no doubt the perception is out there. I have not seen any data on it, but I would bet that MOS has less kids seeing it than the normal comic book movie. And with the more kid-friendly MU coming out, well, MOS really has no chance at all. Kids really drive the BO in summer so cutting off that market could really hurt big time.

Strange may just be your area... But everyone was talking about how epic the movie was... This was from GA. Happens at my work place and people on Facebook posting "you have to see MOS... Best action flick of the year... Worth every penny."

 

[Tra-El]

Well, all I can say is WOM over my neck of the woods is fantastic. Not
Only are people seeing it more than once, my fam in other states are saying the same. I really do believe its just harsh competition and it being compared to TDK or Avengers and people were expecting that. Movie is great for me (9/10) but expectations were skyhigh. Improvements are coming for the sequel!

 

[Tobias]

How pent up was the demand for another Superman film though?

Was the general audience asking for another one?

The fact it did so well the first weekend tells me there is demand. And believe me I have had doubts about the viability of the franchise as a stand-alone. So I was pleased with the big opening.

The fact it fell so much since tells me the movie was seriously flawed. The critics, as much as we like to bash them, were generally spot on in their analysis.

But WB will have to sort this out now. I think they slow-track a sequel. No earlier than 2016. They may need a whole new creative team - that is my personal opinion.

 

[BH/HHH]

The fact it did so well the first weekend tells me there is demand.

The fact it fell so much since tells me the movie was seriously flawed. The critics, as much as we like to bash them, were generally spot on in their analysis.

But WB will have to sort this out now. I think they slow-track a sequel. No earlier than 2016. They may need a whole new creative team - that is my personal opinion.

The critics that were negative were only right in your opinion. There's still plenty who gave the film good reviews.

 

[Tobias]

I wonder what would have happened to MOS's number had Monsters opened up there too.

WWZ has not need of the young/family crowd.

Problem is it had a big drop (58%) it's second weekend in the UK. IM3 had just a 45% drop.

 

[kalhawj]

Don't forget Tobias

+1... We get it they don't like it yet they keep coming back to MOS forum to give their view. I don't mine it but its aways the negative.

 

[J.Howlett]

If 60% weekend drops are how MOS plays out the rest of it's run it will end up at 270 - 275. A 2.3 multiplier or so. Less than average. Plus the drops are totally out of the norm if they continue. GL type drops.

That has to worry WB a lot. Will they reconsider doing a sequel? Maybe not but it looks like plans to use MOS2 to launch other DC characters may not be effective. If MOS2 does the same or less than MOS. Tomb Raider scenario.

Something went wrong. I think it's a combo of things. I hope WB does not blame it on the character and give up. Huge crowds turned out for MOS but the film didn't impress them enough to do repeat viewings or insist their friends see it.

Business as usual won't do. I'm sorry but I think it wwill be a huge mistake if WB continues with the same creative team. It could potentially kill the franchise IMO - if MOS2 underperforms MOS.

Too violent? Yes for a Supes film. I find it interesting that Nolan wasn't for Superman killing but Goyer and Snyder insisted. What will they insist on in MOS2.

WB needs to wait until the final numbers are in and evaluate them and have a long talk with the creators as to what went wrong and what is the path forward.

Rushing a sequel after these results is foolish and I doubt WB will. Forget 2015 - 2016 is far more prudent. They absolutely have to get the next one right.

We get it, dude...

 

[Tobias]

The critics that were negative were only right in your opinion. There's still plenty who gave the film good reviews.

You can't argue with the numbers. MOS is experiencing one of the quickest fall-offs I've seen. It's performing, hold-wise, like GL. You can be sure WB is seeing this and they have to be asking questions. I can't believe they will shell out 225 million for a sequel until they do a total evaluation and "demand" fixes they see as needed to correct the problems.

The press is picking up on this. Just read an article that referred to MOS's second week drop as just a bit less than GL's. Then commented that it is not good news for the film. These kind of stories will be out there now and the unfortunate thing is they tie a negative perception around MOS. It could be MOS will be baggage the sequel will have to overcome.

 

[kalhawj]

that is not an indication that MOS doesnt have legs. Lots of great movies and ones that were financially successful have had 60% or close to 60% drops its first monday. Harry Potter, Twilight, ASM had 57%, Spider Man had a 65% drop. They all went on to do quite well. Most Potter and Twilight films followed this pattern. Huge OW and decent following weekends until finish. I feel MOS 2 will need some polishing but it should make the money that TDK, TDKR, IM3 made, maybe even Avengers

Just seen that IM 2 had a 69% drop 1st Mon and a 74% drop the next monday...it made 312m+ by the way. so people saying MOS cant reach 300m or more are crazy

Iron Man 1 had a 73.4% drop its first Monday

I went through BOmojo and Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 3 all had 60%+ drops its first Monday.

Yet another member with the right mind set... People just need to let MOS do its thing instead of coming in here to give gloom and doom post...