Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[ElDuderino]

After the weekend numbers people might be a bit less rosy about 300 million.
We shall see .

I'm not saying it's likely to to hit $300. I'm just saying it's beyond stupid to say that it can't hit $300 at this point.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah I meant ElDuderino (et al). But someone else already covered it. Anyhoo...

 

[roach]

That was quite deceiving.

Hollywood studios are infamous for creative accounting to avoid heavy taxes on profits.

Truthfully the vast majority of Warner Bros movies don't come close to 650 m WW, even the big budget ones.

exactly... Marvel said Avengers needed to hit 1Bil to break even

 

[UrNuts2]

Yea that Tuesday should've been an increase, at worst flat, because this is its 2nd Tuesday, then followed by a drop on Wednesday and slight drop on Thursday. I have the rest of the week playing out like this...

Thurs- $4.0(-5%)
Fri- $6.0(+50%)
Sat- $7.8(+30%)
Sun- $5.9(-25%)

So a total of about $247M for the weekend. That actually seems a bit optimistic but I'll stick with it.

i think between us we've been pretty close with our predictions overall so far .. so i'm gonna put my range come Sun between 241-245 .. i think u'll agree we'll see 260+ come Sun the 7th Jul .. where do u see it going from there (ballpark) over following 6 weeks ?

 

[T"Challa]

MOS will turn a good profit but mostly through merchandising, television rights and bluray sales. The box office take alone will probably not get them out of the red but thats the studios fault. You shouldnt be pouring 250-300 mill into a movie unless you're dead sure you're going to triple that amount at he box office. TDKR earned that budget, Avengers earned that budget, IM3 and Transformers 3 as well. Green lantern, Lone Ranger and MOS didn't.

 

[kalhawj]

Can anyone point me to where this red bar is that is being mention that MOS needs to get too to get out of red section. I always thought Studio just need their WW BO to be double of their production budget to make a profit. of course there are not expense that isn't counted for.

 

[Superherofan123]

Yea so if the studio spends 225mil but "only" makes 600mil that's a failure? I think it's going to make over 700ww and a little of 300dom. Just the domestic take more than pays for the film. I really don't understand where some of you are coming from. Add to that all the money this movie made before it hit theaters(170mil) plus merchandise, bluray sales, etc and you're looking at a billion dollars. Not bad for a reboot.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

MOS will turn a good profit but mostly through merchandising, television rights and bluray sales. The box office take alone will probably not get them out of the red but thats the studios fault. You shouldnt be pouring 250-300 mill into a movie unless you're dead sure you're going to triple that amount at he box office. TDKR earned that budget, Avengers earned that budget, IM3 and Transformers 3 as well. Green lantern, Lone Ranger and MOS didn't.

You can't just lump in MOS with Green Lantern and Lone Ranger.

MOS will likely make 3 times Green Lantern's worldwide gross.

Lone Ranger hasn't been released yet.

 

[X Knight]

do we have Wednesday's numbers yet?

 

[T"Challa]

You can't just lump in MOS with Green Lantern and Lone Ranger.

MOS will likely make 3 times Green Lantern's worldwide gross.

Lone Ranger hasn't been released yet.

Obviously i'm not talking about film quality or anything. I'm just saying it think its very unwise to throw that kind of money into a property when you don't hav any true gauge on how its going to perform box office wise.

 

[Dragon_316ca]

do we have wednesday's numbers yet?

$4.11m

 

[moguy]

do we have Wednesday's numbers yet?

4.1M estimate at Boxofficemojo.com

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=superman2012.htm

 

[X Knight]

thanks.

 

[redp]

The Lone Ranger is not going to be a success. Considering its budget($225M), my forecast classifies it as a fail.

Below are my expectations.
North American Forecast: $127 million
Non-North American Forecast: $185 million
Worldwide: $312 million

 

[writer0327]

The Lone Ranger is not going to be a success. Considering its budget($225M), my forecast classifies it as a fail.

Below are my expectations.
North American Forecast: $127 million
Non-North American Forecast: $185 million
Worldwide: $312 million

I think it's going to be a huge hit myself. Its got too much going for it. It will literally going to be POTC all over again.

I'm guessing 500 WW at a minimum.

 

[spider-neil]

Lone Ranger has Dark Shadows written all over it.

 

[Showtime]

It won't be Dark Shadows, but it won't be a huge huge hit.

 

[writer0327]

Lone Ranger has Dark Shadows written all over it.

The early reviews from critics say this movie is going to be a hit. Comedy, action, a whole lot of fun and it has Johnny Depp....sounds like POTC.

 

[Marvin]

People shouldn't be so quick to dismiss other peoples guesses. Anything can and has happened in the past.

I for one think WB suicidal release date for this film may have cost it that 300mill number but it seems to show pretty resilient weekday holds. Perhaps this ending haters and lovers are talking about has people finding their way to see it on their own time..and other stuff like that.

If ever there was a film WB would/could drag to the finish line it's this one.

We'll see.
I still think it's going to make a pretty penny internationally.

 

[Str8 Rippin]

Is the rumor true about Warner Bros fast-tracking MOS2 for 2014 release? And I also read that Snyder wants Mark Strong to play Lex.

I think the first rumor has been seen a couple different places, so I wouldn't doubt its merit too much, and I've read the thing about Mark Strong on here a couple times as though he's the preferred choice for Lex Luthor, but I haven't seen it anywhere else yet.

 

[113]

If the estimate for Wednesday is $4.1 million then so far my mini-prediction is spot on. I said $225 million by the end of the Thursday (looks like it will beat that number) and $250 million by the end of Sunday. I still predict $300+ million by the end of its' domestic run.

 

[kalhawj]

If the estimate for Wednesday is $4.1 million then so far my mini-prediction is spot on. I said $225 million by the end of the Thursday (looks like it will beat that number) and $250 million by the end of Sunday. I still predict $300+ million by the end of its' domestic run.

Sounds about what I would expect it too. With my prediction of a OS take of 500 will bring MOS to 800 WW. For a reboot that would be the all time best ever... Hoping this happens.

 

[113]

Sounds about what I would expect it too. With my prediction of a OS take of 500 will bring MOS to 800 WW. For a reboot that would be the all time best ever... Hoping this happens.

Yep, I'm right there with you. I think $800 million WW is basically a lock. A lot depends on how well it continues to do in China, how well it does in Australia, and how well it will do in Japan when it's released on August 31st.

 

[kalhawj]

Yep, I'm right there with you. I think $800 million WW is basically a lock. A lot depends on how well it continues to do in China, how well it does in Australia, and how well it will do in Japan when it's released on August 31st.

Yea... MOS is doing awesome OS. So far in the UK MOS already made 30+ Million compare to Iron Man 3 total earning at $56,912,629. From just looking at last week International country earning it's all doing really good like Iron Man 3. Some country like Philippines is actually doing better with MOS than Iron Man 3. Iron Man 3 made $14,949,472 it's entire run while MOS took in $5,770,726 opening weekend. If the trends continues like this at the major country 500 OS or more intake is possible.

 

[writer0327]

If the estimate for Wednesday is $4.1 million then so far my mini-prediction is spot on. I said $225 million by the end of the Thursday (looks like it will beat that number) and $250 million by the end of Sunday. I still predict $300+ million by the end of its' domestic run.

I think you're right. At least 250 by Sunday. What do you give the domestic run, another 6 weeks, to make 50 mil? Yeh sounds like a good estimate.