Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 8

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah I agree but either way it is the money in the bank today not what you had yesterday. You never look back at if I made that and adjusted for inflation it would be worth this because today it is worth what it is and no matter how slice 300 million or slightly less is a lot of MONEY!

It still has to get to $300m.

 

[Liam_H]

IM1 adjusted for inflation and 3D is around $385-390m. So yeah, MOS isn't anywhere near the same ballpark in terms of ticket sales.

Funny, that just makes it seem like IM3 kept the same audience and didn't expand it all. Not true but on paper it looks that way.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Man oh man, the industry has sure changed a lot even during a 10-15 year span. It will be interesting to see where things are in 15 years. Sub-2.0 multipliers will be the norm for big openers.

Absolutely. That's why it's hard to compare the multipliers for all these recent films from the past three years to anything before. And even the ones within this recent time span, release time tables depend on the competition. It's all about opening weekend. Almost like studios don't care about marketing movies after the first week, but still want the movies to perform well.

 

[Nvmyprixgt]

What? The movie crossed 400 million domestically and 800 mil overseas in 10 weeks. 10 weeks. There is no way you can possibly spin that as awful. Just look at the daily record chart:

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Iron-Man-3

Wtf?!? IF MOS legs suck, so do IM3. It got to 400 cuz of opening weekend, that's it. Look at the % drops compared to MOS, almost the same. Also earned the same amount it's 2nd Monday.

 

[Majestic]

You guys no business thinks yesterday they only think ahead and adjust to make more money with a changing environment that's it. And when something does well they hope to capitalize again as fast as possible.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Don't forget 3D. And adding to that, MOS was released on 80% 3D screens. Lots of small/medium venues had little to no 2D showings the first week

I don't think that number means what you think it means. I think what it means is that either 80% of thread screens were MoS, or 80% of the theaters showing it was 3D. I can't believe that 80% of the screens it was playing on in total were 3D. My local theaters all had the same amount of 2D and 3D showings.

 

[Majestic]

It still has to get to $300m.

270 million is a lot of Money period! No discussion

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yep, in 20 years, your average flop will probably gross more than Avatar lol

in 6D

 

[Bruce Malone]

Funny, that just makes it seem like IM3 kept the same audience and didn't expand it all. Not true but on paper it looks that way.

Check out iron man 1's legs they are amazing especially comapred to IM3.

Iron Man as a franchise only grew so much in North America, IM2 actually made less than 1. It's overseas with IM3 really, that really expanded things.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

IM1 adjusted for inflation and 3D is around $385-390m. So yeah, MOS isn't anywhere near the same ballpark in terms of ticket sales.

Not bad, huh.

You guys no business thinks yesterday they only think ahead and adjust to make more money with a changing environment that's it. And when something does well they hope to capitalize again as fast as possible.

We are simply talking ticket sales as opposed to dollars here.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Funny, that just makes it seem like IM3 kept the same audience and didn't expand it all. Not true but on paper it looks that way.

IM2 lost 11% of the audience of IM1. So the Avengers effect allowed them to get that audience back, plus gain another 6.5% on top of that.

 

[Majestic]

Not bad, huh.


We are simply talking ticket sales as opposed to dollars here.

I get that but no matter what it is a lot of money in any standard is what I am saying is all

 

[metaphysician]

Yes, but I still don't understand why Captain America, with a budget of 140m and a box office of

Domestic: $176,654,505 47.9%
+ Foreign: $191,953,858 52.1%

is considered a success.
Man of Steel with a budget of 225m and a box office of around 600m should be considered a commercial disappointment.

The strange rules of the shh message boards.

Well, Cap is considered a success because its total gross more than doubled its budget. . . and that is with it being released at the same time as Harry Potter 8.

That said, if WB considers MoS a failure with a global BO of 600 and a budget of 225, its probably because they have unrealistic expectations. Ditto any fans who think likewise.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I don't think that number means what you think it means. I think what it means is that either 80% of thread screens were MoS, or 80% of the theaters showing it was 3D. I can't believe that 80% of the screens it was playing on in total were 3D. My local theaters all had the same amount of 2D and 3D showings.

That's what the word was as I read it. Deadline reported that 80% of screens showing MOS were 3D and that it was the biggest 3D split/push of the summer. They had it posted on the Friday of release, the article they kept updating throughout the weekend. That's why I've been mentioning it since then

 

[DarthSkywalker]

270 million is a lot of Money period! No discussion

It would be a disappointment if it didn't get to $275m after that opening.

 

[Poni_Boy]

IM2 lost 11% of the audience of IM1. So the Avengers effect allowed them to get that audience back, plus gain another 6.5% on top of that.

Props to them. That isn't easy to do at all

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I get that but no matter what it is a lot of money in any standard is what I am saying is all

Well a movie could make two billion dollars. But if it cost a 1.5 billion to make, that isn't great.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It would be a disappointment if it didn't get to $275m after that opening.

275 mil would put the multiplier at 2.37. At this point with 60% drops this early I don't even think it'll get that far without one of the upcoming movies flopping

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I get that but no matter what it is a lot of money in any standard is what I am saying is all

That's what the word was as I read it. Deadline reported that 80% of screens showing MOS were 3D and that it was the biggest 3D split/push of the summer. They had it posted on the Friday of release, the article they kept updating throughout the weekend. That's why I've been mentioning it since then

Two quotes from the article.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/06/man...d-opening-day-in-the-philippines/#more-519940

"This third Superman franchise goes wide today in a whopping 4,207 locations which is the 2nd widest release ever for a non-sequel: 850 are 2D only, and the remaining venues will play in 3D with a 2D component."

"Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ Man Of Steel (4,207 theaters with 3D in 3,357 venues) opened Thursday and is flying high at the domestic box office today on its way into the weekend."

It is basically written both ways. The one that makes sense that only 850 locations only had 2D showings, where everywhere else was had both 3D and 2D.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Two quotes from the article.



It is basically written both ways. The one that makes sense that only 850 locations only had 2D showings, where everywhere else was had both 3D and 2D.

I can see that but I took it the other way because Disney did a similar thing with Iron Man 3. Wish I could get clarification though

 

[113]

By Friday it will be at $225 million domestic. By the end of the weekend it will be at $250 million domestic

 

[Majestic]

Well a movie could make two billion dollars. But if it cost a 1.5 billion to make, that isn't great.

Ok? But that is not the case here at all! So your point is? I will tell you this from a business standpoint if someone says spend 300 and I will give you 600 that is a deal every time! Also when looking at business numbers and major corporations a bottom line of 10 % or little less is common but that is on sales of billions of dollars.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Ok? But that is not the case here at all! So your point is? I will tell you this from a business standpoint if someone says spend 300 and I will give you 600 that is a deal every time! Also when looking at business numbers and major corporations a bottom line of 10 % or little less is common but that is on sales of billions of dollars.

But you're forgetting that WB doesn't get to keep 600 million from a 600 million worldwide gross. They only get roughly 60% of the domestic box office and 30% of the international one.

Do the numbers. That puts a bit more perspective on 600 million ww

 

[Majestic]

But you're forgetting that WB doesn't get to keep 600 million from a 600 million worldwide gross. They only get roughly 60% of the domestic box office and 30% of the international one.

Do the numbers. That puts a bit more perspective on 600 million ww

Did you read what I just wrote? WB is major multi billion dollar company the bottom lines are no where near the numbers you guys are talking for profitability at all. It most common around 10% or slightly less just fact so the numbers and profits are way off and talked with not a true broad stroke.

 

[Liam_H]

275 mil would put the multiplier at 2.37. At this point with 60% drops this early I don't even think it'll get that far without one of the upcoming movies flopping

Actually 60% drops week by week will put it at a $270-275M domestic finish.